#1 seed in the NCAA Tournament

[81spacetiger 157]

11 hours ago, Rednilla said:

You do realize that Joe Lunardi is not on the Selection Committee, don't you? All he's got is an educated guess.

Yes, but he is very good in his "guess" that ESPN carries him as the bracketology they show.  I fully expect to see some differences between the 2 but I'm 99% sure the top 10-12 will be the same.

[81spacetiger 157]

11 hours ago, Rednilla said:

You do realize that Joe Lunardi is not on the Selection Committee, don't you? All he's got is an educated guess.

Yes, but he is very good in his "guess" that ESPN carries him as the bracketology they show.  I fully expect to see some differences between the 2 but I'm 99% sure the top 10-12 will be the same.

Edit:  Lunardi just updated his bracket guess.  His narrative:

"With the major conference tournaments set to begin on Tuesday, it's fair to wonder how much is really up for grabs in terms of No. 1 seeds. I believe two of the spots are all but locked -- Gonzaga and Arizona -- and the remaining two will come from the Big 12 (Baylor or Kansas) and SEC (Auburn or Kentucky). It's also possible the Big 12 gets Baylor and Kansas on the top line, but unlikely unless both Auburn and Kentucky bow out early at the SEC tourney. Entering the final weekend, it appeared Duke or Wisconsin could make a late push for a 1-seed, but those hopes seem dashed with their respective losses to North Carolina and Nebraska."  

He is currently showing Baylor (2nd) and Kansas (4th) as #1 seeds and Auburn as a #2 seed (1st #2 seed).  Baylor's resurgence is tied to their getting back their PG from earlier injury and recent play.  Tournament play in Big 12 and SEC will matter for final top seeding.  If we win out, I still believe we end up on the 1 line.  If UK wins, I have a hard time believing they can get to a 1 seed, but that's what a big beatdown of Kansas can get you.  Baylor and Kansas share regular season crown but one will lose in their conference tournament.

[Rednilla 5,383]

15 minutes ago, 81spacetiger said:

Yes, but he is very good in his "guess" that ESPN carries him as the bracketology they show.  I fully expect to see some differences between the 2 but I'm 99% sure the top 10-12 will be the same.

Edit:  Lunardi just updated his bracket guess.  His narrative:

"With the major conference tournaments set to begin on Tuesday, it's fair to wonder how much is really up for grabs in terms of No. 1 seeds. I believe two of the spots are all but locked -- Gonzaga and Arizona -- and the remaining two will come from the Big 12 (Baylor or Kansas) and SEC (Auburn or Kentucky). It's also possible the Big 12 gets Baylor and Kansas on the top line, but unlikely unless both Auburn and Kentucky bow out early at the SEC tourney. Entering the final weekend, it appeared Duke or Wisconsin could make a late push for a 1-seed, but those hopes seem dashed with their respective losses to North Carolina and Nebraska."  

He is currently showing Baylor (2nd) and Kansas (4th) as #1 seeds and Auburn as a #2 seed (1st #2 seed).  Baylor's resurgence is tied to their getting back their PG from earlier injury and recent play.  Tournament play in Big 12 and SEC will matter for final top seeding.  If we win out, I still believe we end up on the 1 line.  If UK wins, I have a hard time believing they can get to a 1 seed, but that's what a big beatdown of Kansas can get you.  Baylor and Kansas share regular season crown but one will lose in their conference tournament.

Hey now, I wasn't knocking Lunardi, just pointing out that you shouldn't put all your money down on what he says the seeding will look like because he's not on the committee that selects the tournament field.

I agree that if we win the conference tournament, we will be a #1 seed. If it's us and Kentucky in the championship, and UK wins, I don't know how it will go, but I suspect the Wildcats would get the #1 seed over us in that situation. I'm not sure we have much chance at a #1 seed if we don't win at least 2 in the conference tourney.

But that's not even as educated a guess as Lunardi's, so I suppose time will tell.

[tgrogan21 6,198]

1 hour ago, 81spacetiger said:

Yes, but he is very good in his "guess" that ESPN carries him as the bracketology they show.  I fully expect to see some differences between the 2 but I'm 99% sure the top 10-12 will be the same.

Lunardi is actually ranked 55th by BracketMatrix. He's not a good bracketologist, he's just employed by the largest sports company so people think he's good.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

Edit: Out of the best 10 bracketologists, only 1 has Auburn as a 2 seed. If Kansas loses their first game and Kentucky doesn't win the tourney, then Auburn should be fine no matter what. To solidify it, I think we'll need to make it to the finals but don't have to win it.

Edited March 7, 2022 by tgrogan21

[81spacetiger 157]

7 minutes ago, tgrogan21 said:

Lunardi is actually ranked 55th by BracketMatrix. He's not a good bracketologist, he's just employed by the largest sports company so people think he's good.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

Edit: Out of the best 10 bracketologists, only 1 has Auburn as a 2 seed. If Kansas loses their first game and Kentucky doesn't win the tourney, then Auburn should be fine no matter what. To solidify it, I think we'll need to make it to the finals but don't have to win it.

I don't know if I would say Lunardi isn't a good bracketologist.  You could say he isn't a great one, but he is the one ESPN chose to use and cite.

Relative to the top picks they all have the same teams with some differences in the pecking order.  They will all be updating as the games are played.  If we win out we only have to worry if Kansas wins out.  After that, its a judgement call by all the bracketologists and the the ones with the final say, the NCAA selection committee.  

[all4AU 379]

How about we win the whole thing in Tampa and remove all doubt! 😁

[au701948 997]

16 hours ago, MaxCohen216 said:

If we don't at least make the SEC Tourney Finals, we won't get an NCAA #1 seed.

And that would be fair, and fine.  A #2 seed would be almost as good.

But let's win the SEC Tourney, getting revenge against UF, Arky, and beat KY again in claiming a #1 seed.

That would be nice.

[Indy 166]

I just don't understand his (Lunardi's) logic of giving both Baylor and KU #1 seeds.

Aside from UF, AU's losses have come against teams in the field and/or ranked in the latest poll.  = Quality Losses (if there is such a thing)

Baylor can say the same, but did not win their conference out-right.

Kansas has two unranked losses and also did not win its conference out-right.

 

So, he's saying that splitting the championship (in the toughest conf this season, according to the #s) is worthy of Co #1s, rather than also rewarding the top team in the SECOND toughest conference?  I just cannot wrap my head around that.

 

Ultimately AU has to take care of business and win the Conf Championship.  But I fear that, given these projections, if KU and Baylor get to the Big 12 title game they might still share those 1s.  Especially if that scenario does play out and Auburn loses the title game.

[AUinMS9528 1,086]

I think Zags and Zona as locks is pretty accurate.   I also think it’s a foregone conclusion that 2 of the following:  Kansas, Baylor, AU, and Kentucky will be the other 2 1 seeds.  Of those, I suppose the order of Baylor, AU, Kentucky, Kansas makes the most sense to me right now, ahead of conference tourneys.   (and I’m not sure Baylor deserves to be the first in that group)

Conference tourneys will certainly be a factor, but….I think Kansas needs the most help.  Then Kentucky, then us.   If both UKs lose early.  We’re a 1 no matter what we do. If they both win their tourney, we’re out.   If we go to finals and lose to anyone other than UK, we’re good regardless.  
The good news:    Worst case scenario, we’re #6 overall, a solid 2 seed with a good, clear path to the final four.  

[81spacetiger 157]

14 minutes ago, AUinMS9528 said:

"... Worst case scenario, we’re #6 overall, a solid 2 seed with a good, clear path to the final four."

I think bounding the floor for us is the best way to frame this.  I too think its about impossible for us to fall to a #3 seed at this point.  Winning the SEC regular season with a 27-4 record and all the other metrics on this team gets you to at least the #2 seed no matter what we do in the SEC tournament. 

[BHDAU1 240]

I think it's a joke how high everyone has Gonzaga.  Their schedule is mostly sub-par.  They have 13 Quadrant 4 wins!!!! That is almost half their entire schedule. That is more than Auburn and UK combined.  Auburn only played 4 teams that were quadrant 4 level, all of which were wins.  Gonzaga is 8-3 in Quadrant 1, just as Auburn is 8-4 and UK is 8-6.   The fact is that Gonzaga plays a weak a** schedule, and yes I know they have some good wins, but I would argue anyone that was top 25 would have some good wins when the rest of your schedule is mostly quadrant 4 level teams.  I think we will see them bounced from the tournament as soon as they play someone seeded 5th or higher.  Would Gonzaga be #1 in the country if they had played Auburn's schedule? I think most people would agree they would not.  Would ANYONE else ranked number #1 with that weak of a schedule take a loss and not fall a single spot? NOPE.  Im not saying they are bad, just that they do not deserve the #1 spot.  There are multiple teams with a valid argument to be ranked over Gonzaga.  

[auburnatl1 4,879]

To me it’s more about momentum than seeds. In a 3 pt world, NCAA is like MLB and hitting - it’s all about who gets hot just before postseason. 

Edited March 7, 2022 by auburnatl1

[e808 3,025]

IMO that Florida loss is the biggest black eye on the schedule. Both Arkansas and Kentucky beat them on the road. I think if the road losses were limited to Arkansas and Tennessee the perspective of Auburn would be looked at differently.

[wareagle7298 126]

Not sure who "Crazy Sports Dude" is, but I like his bracket that he has us as the #1 seed. 

 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

I honestly am more interested in the draw/matchups we end up with rather than the number beside the name. Right now I wouldn't want to catch Duke as a 2 seed, or Kansas if we end up as the last one seed. I want to see us get some tourney experience for this team in tampa and then hope for the best draw. Honestly, this season the current 2 seeds are as strong as the 1 seeds. So looking at match ups. The three seeds (who we would catch as a 2 seed) don't look much stronger than the 4 seeds (who we would catch if a 1 seed). So again matchups. 

[MaxCohen216 514]

17 hours ago, GwillMac6 said:

We won the SEC Tourney and got seeded 5th. The whole body of work means a lot more. Winning the SEC Regular season title is a lot harder and a bigger accomplishment. Win the Sec Tourney is splashier and gets more buzz because everyone is fixated on the sport at that point because of March Madness. It gets the glitz and the glamour. I obviously want to win both but if I had to choose one give me the SEC Regular season title. 

The Atlanta Braves had the worst resume of any MLB playoff team last year, but got hot at the right time and won it all.

If I had to choose just one, I think I would rather win the SEC Tourney than the regular season.  Entering the NCAA Tourney fresh off a confidence-boosting SEC Tourney win is more desirable, in my opinion.  It sets a tone for the most important time of the year.  Just my opinion.

[AUBwins 10,070]

On 3/6/2022 at 8:42 PM, Rednilla said:

You do realize that Joe Lunardi is not on the Selection Committee, don't you? All he's got is an educated guess.

And his guesses are garbage lol.  At least this year, I've actually liked Palm's forecasts for us more.  Not always the case, but he seems to use reason behind his. 

Edited March 8, 2022 by AUBwins

[tigerman1186 537]

Don't see the Tigers a #1 seed unless we win the SEC tourney...NCAA has never been a fan of BP and remember in 2019 after winning the tourney they placed us in the same bracket as UNC, Kentucky, Kansas and the overall favorite Virginia....don't look for any favors this year either...

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,649]

On 3/7/2022 at 10:19 AM, Indy said:

I just don't understand his (Lunardi's) logic of giving both Baylor and KU #1 seeds.

Aside from UF, AU's losses have come against teams in the field and/or ranked in the latest poll.  = Quality Losses (if there is such a thing)

Baylor can say the same, but did not win their conference out-right.

Kansas has two unranked losses and also did not win its conference out-right.

 

So, he's saying that splitting the championship (in the toughest conf this season, according to the #s) is worthy of Co #1s, rather than also rewarding the top team in the SECOND toughest conference?  I just cannot wrap my head around that.

 

Ultimately AU has to take care of business and win the Conf Championship.  But I fear that, given these projections, if KU and Baylor get to the Big 12 title game they might still share those 1s.  Especially if that scenario does play out and Auburn loses the title game.

I don’t see anyway it happens unless Kansas narrowly beats Baylor in the title and they can survive in that 4th spot. But that’d require both Auburn and Kentucky losing imo 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,649]

1 hour ago, tigerman1186 said:

Don't see the Tigers a #1 seed unless we win the SEC tourney...NCAA has never been a fan of BP and remember in 2019 after winning the tourney they placed us in the same bracket as UNC, Kentucky, Kansas and the overall favorite Virginia....don't look for any favors this year either...

Yeah we beat a team that was top 5 for 3 months and #1 for 1 month to close the regular season, got to about the 5th seed, and then didn’t get any higher after that. It wasn’t great seeding 

[WDE_OxPx_2010 5,290]

Just dropping in to this thread to reflect on my readings tonight-

Is this the Auburn men's basketball forum?

Are we discussing an NCAA tournament 1 seed?

Are we at "Final Four or Bust" level expectations?

Somebody pinch me! I love you, Bruce Pearl. What CRAZY time to be alive!!

[BigBlueWDE 1,136]

Small sample size for me, but Gonzaga kinda sucks to be honest. I wouldn't be shocked if they pulled a UVA 1 seed disaster in the tourney. I would be shocked if they make the Final 4

[81spacetiger 157]

I watched Zaga play in their Conference game and also believe they might not last long.  If their bracket is this, then I'd say Ark will get them before they get to elite 8 status.  

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,649]

On 3/7/2022 at 2:54 PM, wareagle7298 said:

Not sure who "Crazy Sports Dude" is, but I like his bracket that he has us as the #1 seed. 

 

I like that bracket if it were to happen

TT is a fantastic team, Iowa has an elite player, Texas makes every game ugly, but Duke is a pretty poor team to me although they’ll get the benefit of the calls in every single game going forward. San Fran was solid but GU always had them at arms length or more 

I’d take this 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,649]

Any mock up we can get that doesn’t involve us having to play an offensively excellent, well structured system, is one I enjoy