Theory on Our Slide

[AUght2win 6,816]

First off I love this team. I’m a football guy but even I can tell Jabari is a Cam Newton type talent. Just a different level than his competition. And bringing home a regular season banner is a truly remarkable achievement.

A couple months ago I thought we had a real shot at a natty. Now, with this slide, I don’t know. But I wanted to ask the more knowledgeable basketball posters about a theory I have to try to make sense of our losses.

Is it fair to say our struggles have come because our guards have refused to accept it’s Jabari’s team? 

At the beginning of the year Jabari was not producing like he is now. He just wouldn’t shoot as much or assert himself. Selfless to a fault. Even with his talent, the dynamic early on was Wendell and KD were the scorers and everybody got what was left over. 

But each game Jabari has become more and more dominant. His progression has been beautiful to watch. And the Arkansas game was the real turning point where he emerged as a guy who could get 25-30 every game. It was clear after that game it was now his team and the offense would go through him.

That SHOULD have sent our title hopes into overdrive. But it seems to have backfired. It’s like Wendell and KD are in denial that things have changed. They’re in denial that we have the #1 NBA prospect (and a fantastic center, too). They want to play the same way we did in December.

They’ve refused to curtail the number of shots they take. And I think psychologically, they’ve put more pressure on themselves to make them. “I’ve got to get my points because Jabari is going to shoot a lot more than he used to.”

Watching KD go 0-14, statistically the worst game in SEC HISTORY, and watching Wendell’s erratic play the lat month, it appears there is something psychologically off balance with those two. And it’s costing us. 

Pearl seems to give them all license to do what they want so I don’t see it getting better. Idk I could be totally off base, but I wanted to see if there’s any merit to my theory.

[Old fan 47 765]

52 minutes ago, AUght2win said:

First off I love this team. I’m a football guy but even I can tell Jabari is a Cam Newton type talent. Just a different level than his competition. And bringing home a regular season banner is a truly remarkable achievement.

A couple months ago I thought we had a real shot at a natty. Now, with this slide, I don’t know. But I wanted to ask the more knowledgeable basketball posters about a theory I have to try to make sense of our losses.

Is it fair to say our struggles have come because our guards have refused to accept it’s Jabari’s team? 

At the beginning of the year Jabari was not producing like he is now. He just wouldn’t shoot as much or assert himself. Selfless to a fault. Even with his talent, the dynamic early on was Wendell and KD were the scorers and everybody got what was left over. 

But each game Jabari has become more and more dominant. His progression has been beautiful to watch. And the Arkansas game was the real turning point where he emerged as a guy who could get 25-30 every game. It was clear after that game it was now his team and the offense would go through him.

That SHOULD have sent our title hopes into overdrive. But it seems to have backfired. It’s like Wendell and KD are in denial that things have changed. They’re in denial that we have the #1 NBA prospect (and a fantastic center, too). They want to play the same way we did in December.

They’ve refused to curtail the number of shots they take. And I think psychologically, they’ve put more pressure on themselves to make them. “I’ve got to get my points because Jabari is going to shoot a lot more than he used to.”

Watching KD go 0-14, statistically the worst game in SEC HISTORY, and watching Wendell’s erratic play the lat month, it appears there is something psychologically off balance with those two. And it’s costing us. 

Pearl seems to give them all license to do what they want so I don’t see it getting better. Idk I could be totally off base, but I wanted to see if there’s any merit to my theory.

I hope the fact that are recent poor play is not due to jealousy of another players success or implied ability to be a one and done. With that being said, you do raise a valid point. While WG is a serviceable guard, I have never thought he was one capable of leading us in the way that Jared Harper did a few years ago. Quick thought is, he’s just not near the player or leader. Not a knock on him, but it’s very obvious at this point in the season. As for KD, he was UGAs best player last year but jumped ship when he saw where the program was headed. He, to me is a much better player than WG, but he does take a lot of ill advised shots. I’m not sure this team has a run in them for the tourney, because everything appears to be crumbling and that’s on BP. I hope he’s not becoming too complacent since the big new contract. At AU, that tends to happen quite often unfortunately. Just my two cents. 

[Nontoxic 37]

I saw a post online that said the slide didn’t start until Harsin started coming to basketball games… I kid. Kinda.

[NoALtiger 3,849]

I don’t think it has anything to do with Jabari becoming “the guy” or anything like that nor jealousy on the part of the guards. I think it’s a combination of teams adjusting to defend our strengths and us not being able to capitalize on what they are now giving us. For me it’s as simple as we don’t have great guard play period and when they are off it’s bad. Our guards with their lack of size and style of play are subject to really being limited in what we can do it they are missing wide open shots. We’ve got to make the shots that will open our strengths back up. I think we are a point guard away from being truly dynamite and that is unfortunate. 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,641]

They’re playing with literally the same mentality as they did when Jabari wasn’t getting the same shots and their shots were falling.
And they’ve ceded way more looks for Jabari as a team. They just can’t hit as much as they used to…and if the team starts draining shots and Jabari’s shots dip again…everyone will be fine with it including Jabari 

[steeleagle 2,945]

1 hour ago, NoALtiger said:

I don’t think it has anything to do with Jabari becoming “the guy” or anything like that nor jealousy on the part of the guards. I think it’s a combination of teams adjusting to defend our strengths and us not being able to capitalize on what they are now giving us. For me it’s as simple as we don’t have great guard play period and when they are off it’s bad. Our guards with their lack of size and style of play are subject to really being limited in what we can do it they are missing wide open shots. We’ve got to make the shots that will open our strengths back up. I think we are a point guard away from being truly dynamite and that is unfortunate. 

Actually Greene would be a very good 2 guard if he had 3-4 more inches. 
he’s a good PG but still turns the ball over a little too much at times and struggles when pressed and doesn’t anticipate we’ll when’s he about to be double teamed. 

Zep needs to shoot a little more bc he’s got fairly good form on his outside shot. 
 
Teams have figured out if u pack it in around the paint and just the the outside guards press and push our guards to one side for a press they struggle bc most of the good teams guards are 6’2 and taller. 
 

we need more inside tosses and look to see who’s open on the outside for the best shot. We’ll make those. 

[au302 2,669]

I think the roster is more flawed than we realized. 2019 your two headed monster was our guards, Jared and Bryce. This year it's Kessler and Smith. Problem is the 2019 supporting cast was way better, at least in shooting, than this supporting cast. And these guys think they are 2019 like talent. We can still win any game even with them playing like that. If the team realizes it this week, anything can happen

[mcgufcm 4,096]

No offense. This is nonsense. Jabari will one day be a guy who can create both his own shot AND shots for teammates, but he’s not at that point in his progression. I mean, even Durant couldn’t carry a team in college. Plus, college basketball’s liberal zone rules allow much tougher defensive looks to neutralize one guy. Bottom line, you have to have multiple guys capable of creating offense.

Jabari is one, but his offense is largely catch-and-shoot, iso jumpers from the high post, or put backs. 

Wen and KD are the only other guys who create steady shots for themselves or teammates. Flanigan hasn’t regain his off the bounce verve. He’s basically a slasher and rebounder atm. Zep isn’t that kind of ball handler. He’s a catch and shoot guy. Kessler is a roll man and rebounder.

We cannot survive offensively without Wen or (to a lesser degree) KD. Wen is the only guy who can consistently create shots for others. He’s the key to involving Kessler too. So yes. This is Jabari’s team, and we should probably tilt the offense a play or two more his direction, but Melo absolutely couldn’t have won without McNamara and Warrick. GMac was almost as important to that particular team as Melo, and he never sniffed the NBA. We’re a similarly constructed team. We have a generationally special player, but he means little without the others, particularly the PG capable of unlocking the rest of the offense. 

[NoALtiger 3,849]

30 minutes ago, steeleagle said:

Actually Greene would be a very good 2 guard if he had 3-4 more inches. 
he’s a good PG but still turns the ball over a little too much at times and struggles when pressed and doesn’t anticipate we’ll when’s he about to be double teamed. 

Zep needs to shoot a little more bc he’s got fairly good form on his outside shot. 
 
Teams have figured out if u pack it in around the paint and just the the outside guards press and push our guards to one side for a press they struggle bc most of the good teams guards are 6’2 and taller. 
 

we need more inside tosses and look to see who’s open on the outside for the best shot. We’ll make those. 

Well yeah, tons of guys would be better if they were 3-4” taller. Point is he isn’t and all our guards are short which makes us limited in what we can do now that teams have adjusted. Flan getting hurt and essentially being a non-factor now has been a killer too. We’ll need them all to be better shooters than they really are for us to win it all IMO. Maybe we will get hot as a unit and roll. 

[mcgufcm 4,096]

I don’t think we need anything crazy. If KD plays a bad game on Thursday, we win. If Jabari plays to his level in the second half, we win. That game was razor fine between winning and losing. Flan and Jabari missed 4 FTs at the end of the halves, and one was the front of a 1-1. Dylan missed a lob dunk. Jackson made a spectacular chase down block. Those are the game. Little stuff. 

For us to make a run, we need solid play from a majority of the support guys (Zep, Flan, Cardwell, Cambridge, and Williams) in any given game. We need at least two of our four headliners to play really well, and we need their average from the other two. Any game that happens, we win. Because defensively we’re as good or better than any team so, at worst, we’re in a close game.

This team has lost by 6 at the absolutely most, and that was in double OT. Any loss will be close based on our defense and effort level. Avoid a complete disaster from any of the big four, and we likely win. 

[creed 1,629]

I think the guy that could open up the offense is just not playing well this year (Flanigan). If he was at last year's form this team's ceiling is unlimited. I believe that's why CBP has been giving him starts and minutes to try to get him back in the groove. It just hasn't worked out

[au701948 996]

1 hour ago, mcgufcm said:

I don’t think we need anything crazy. If KD plays a bad game on Thursday, we win. If Jabari plays to his level in the second half, we win. That game was razor fine between winning and losing. Flan and Jabari missed 4 FTs at the end of the halves, and one was the front of a 1-1. Dylan missed a lob dunk. Jackson made a spectacular chase down block. Those are the game. Little stuff. 

For us to make a run, we need solid play from a majority of the support guys (Zep, Flan, Cardwell, Cambridge, and Williams) in any given game. We need at least two of our four headliners to play really well, and we need their average from the other two. Any game that happens, we win. Because defensively we’re as good or better than any team so, at worst, we’re in a close game.

This team has lost by 6 at the absolutely most, and that was in double OT. Any loss will be close based on our defense and effort level. Avoid a complete disaster from any of the big four, and we likely win. 

I hope that Zep gets told to help out with 3’s at the start of our next game just to see if he can break the logjam. This last game was a really overall disaster until the players realized how bad they were getting beat. BP should have found some way to really get their attention before 10 minutes were left. I am sure he tried, but it just didn’t take until it was too late. IF the team can win a game or two, they may get their mojo back.

[GTNupe11 2,033]

5 hours ago, AUght2win said:

Is it fair to say our struggles have come because our guards have refused to accept it’s Jabari’s team? 

No. Next question. 

Shots just need to fall. It's as simple as that. 

[AUght2win 6,816]

15 minutes ago, GTNupe11 said:

No. Next question. 

Shots just need to fall. It's as simple as that. 

If our shooters aren’t good maybe they shouldn’t shoot as much? Then we wouldn’t have the whole “not falling” problem.

[Eagle-1 3,821]

2 hours ago, mcgufcm said:

No offense. This is nonsense. Jabari will one day be a guy who can create both his own shot AND shots for teammates, but he’s not at that point in his progression. I mean, even Durant couldn’t carry a team in college. Plus, college basketball’s liberal zone rules allow much tougher defensive looks to neutralize one guy. Bottom line, you have to have multiple guys capable of creating offense.

Jabari is one, but his offense is largely catch-and-shoot, iso jumpers from the high post, or put backs. 

Wen and KD are the only other guys who create steady shots for themselves or teammates. Flanigan hasn’t regain his off the bounce verve. He’s basically a slasher and rebounder atm. Zep isn’t that kind of ball handler. He’s a catch and shoot guy. Kessler is a roll man and rebounder.

We cannot survive offensively without Wen or (to a lesser degree) KD. Wen is the only guy who can consistently create shots for others. He’s the key to involving Kessler too. So yes. This is Jabari’s team, and we should probably tilt the offense a play or two more his direction, but Melo absolutely couldn’t have won without McNamara and Warrick. GMac was almost as important to that particular team as Melo, and he never sniffed the NBA. We’re a similarly constructed team. We have a generationally special player, but he means little without the others, particularly the PG capable of unlocking the rest of the offense. 

Pearl summed up the weakness on this team yesterday in one sentence," We don't have a back to the basket player on this team." 

I would also add that we don't have a single player who can create off the dribble that is over 6' tall. 

If we had a player at the 3 position who could drive the basketball, or pull up and make a 15' jumper this team would be virtually unbeatable. Questionable guard play not withstanding.

[AUght2win 6,816]

2 hours ago, mcgufcm said:

No offense. This is nonsense. Jabari will one day be a guy who can create both his own shot AND shots for teammates, but he’s not at that point in his progression. I mean, even Durant couldn’t carry a team in college. Plus, college basketball’s liberal zone rules allow much tougher defensive looks to neutralize one guy. Bottom line, you have to have multiple guys capable of creating offense.

Jabari is one, but his offense is largely catch-and-shoot, iso jumpers from the high post, or put backs. 

Wen and KD are the only other guys who create steady shots for themselves or teammates. Flanigan hasn’t regain his off the bounce verve. He’s basically a slasher and rebounder atm. Zep isn’t that kind of ball handler. He’s a catch and shoot guy. Kessler is a roll man and rebounder.

We cannot survive offensively without Wen or (to a lesser degree) KD. Wen is the only guy who can consistently create shots for others. He’s the key to involving Kessler too. So yes. This is Jabari’s team, and we should probably tilt the offense a play or two more his direction, but Melo absolutely couldn’t have won without McNamara and Warrick. GMac was almost as important to that particular team as Melo, and he never sniffed the NBA. We’re a similarly constructed team. We have a generationally special player, but he means little without the others, particularly the PG capable of unlocking the rest of the offense. 

Well then I think we’re in trouble. I don’t the Wendell or KD are very good players. Props to Bruce for getting them all to play over their heads thus far. But I just can’t get over 0-14 and all these collapses that start with guard play. If we’re dependent on those 2 leading the way in scoring I just don’t think we can win it all.

[Eagle-1 3,821]

1 minute ago, AUght2win said:

Well then I think we’re in trouble. I don’t the Wendell or KD are very good players. Props to Bruce for getting them all to play over their heads thus far. But I just can’t get over 0-14 and all these collapses that start with guard play. If we’re dependent on those 2 leading the way in scoring I just don’t think we can win it all.

We can't. To believe otherwise is just wishful thinking.

[weagl1 1,781]

0-14 cost us the game against A&M plain and simple.  Even if it was 4-14 we win or a more reasonable 6-14 we win easily.  I guess everyone has a bad game every now and then but that was record breaking bad.  If the tournament had been played a month ago we would have had a fighting chance.  Right now, unless Bruce can pull a rabbit his hat, we probably win the first game or two as a 2 seed and go down as soon as the competition gets better.  

[aubaseball 2,583]

1 hour ago, AUght2win said:

If we’re dependent on those 2 leading the way in scoring I just don’t think we can win it all.

Auburn isn’t winning the NC.    Auburn has had a great year and everyone should be glad that Auburn was SEC champs.   But this team isn’t winning the National championship.