Where Auburn can expect to be seeded in NCAA Tournament

[aubiefifty 16,705]

Where Auburn can expect to be seeded in NCAA Tournament field on Selection Sunday

By Tom Green | tgreen@al.com

6-7 minutes

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Auburn has waited three years for this day — a return to the NCAA Tournament.

The Tigers have not participated in March Madness since that historic Final Four run in 2019, thanks to the pandemic canceling the 2020 tournament and the program’s self-imposed postseason ban in 2021. The moment Bruce Pearl and his team have been waiting for will finally come at 5 p.m., when the selection committee unveils its 68-team bracket on Selection Sunday.

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The Tigers will be watching from a private, team-only viewing party in town, waiting to learn their postseason seeding, opening-weekend destination and bracket matchups as their path to a national championship is laid out in front of them. While the selection show is still several hours away, and with five conference tournament championship games still to be played Sunday — including the SEC Tournament final between Tennessee and Texas A&M — Pearl and his team should have a pretty good idea about where they will be seeded and which opening-weekend site they will likely be headed to.

Three of the four No. 1 seeds are all but locked in. Gonzaga has been projected as the top overall seed for some time now, while Arizona’s win in the Pac-12 Tournament title game (following a regular-season title) has the Wildcats positioned for a No. 1 seed. Kansas, which won the Big 12 regular-season and tournament championships, is in line for another one. The final top seed has been up for grabs this week, and Auburn was among the teams vying for it.

The Tigers had an opportunity to shore up just the second No. 1 seed in the program’s history, likely needing just one or two wins in the SEC Tournament to tighten up their resume. Auburn, after going wire-to-wire atop the SEC standings for the regular-season title, was instead bounced in the quarterfinals on Friday by Texas A&M.

The other teams who were in line for that final No. 1 seed entering the weekend were Baylor, Kentucky and Duke — but none of them was able to guarantee that seeding with a conference tournament title. The Bears lost their first game in the Big 12 Tournament. The Wildcats lost to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament semifinals. The Blue Devils lost the ACC Tournament championship game to Virginia Tech on Saturday night.

Of those four, Baylor is widely projected to grab the last No. 1 seed. Both ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm have the Bears as the fourth overall seed in their projected brackets entering Sunday. BracketMatrix.com had yet to update its projections after Saturday’s games, but Baylor remained the likely final top seed by a decent margin over both Kentucky and Auburn.

It’s understandable to see why Baylor could get that No. 1 seed, despite its early exit from its conference tournament. The Bears’ resume stacks up favorably to each of the other three teams in contention for that spot entering the weekend. They have the highest NET ranking at No. 4, the best strength of schedule (13th), the best strength of record (third) and most Quad 1 wins (10, with a 10-5 record in those games, compared to Auburn’s 8-5 mark, Kentucky’s 9-7 and Duke’s 6-2). Baylor is also 16-1 in Quadrants 2, 3 and 4—the one loss coming in Q2. Both Auburn (19-0) and Kentucky (17-0) are undefeated in those quadrants, while Duke is 24-4, with three Q2 losses and one in Q3.

With Baylor likely to land the fourth overall seed, that should put Auburn in line for a No. 2 seed. Lunardi and Palm both have the Tigers as a No. 2 seed, with Auburn expected to play its opening-weekend games in Greenville, S.C. That happens to be the closest opening-weekend site to Auburn — with the other seven hosts being Buffalo, N.Y.; Pittsburgh; Indianapolis; Milwaukee; Portland; San Diego; and Forth Worth, Texas.

The larger question is which region Auburn will be placed in. That will depend on where the Tigers fall among the two-seeds, which should also include Kentucky but could also include Duke, Tennessee if it can win the SEC Tournament, Purdue if it can win the Big Ten title or Villanova, which won the Big East Tournament.

Assuming the top-four seeds in the field are, in order, Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas and Baylor, then that should put the Bulldogs in the West Regional in San Francisco, the Wildcats in the South Regional in San Antonio, the Wildcats in the Midwest Regional in Chicago and the Bears in the East Regional in Philadelphia. If Auburn is the top No. 2 seed, it would likely be in the East Regional; if it lands behind Kentucky as the sixth overall seed, then the Midwest Regional would be the spot. If Auburn falls to the seventh seed in the field, the South Regional is in play, and if the Tigers fall to the final two-seed spot, they should expect to get placed in the West Regional.

As far as resumes go, here’s how Auburn stacks up to those other five teams in key areas:

Team	Overall record	NET ranking	Strength of schedule	Strength of record	Quadrant breakdown	Road/neutral record
Auburn	27-5	12	42	6	Q1 (8-5), Q2 (7-0), Q3 (8-0), Q4 (4-0)	8-3/3-2
Kentucky	26-7	5	19	5	Q1 (9-7), Q2 (5-0), Q3 (4-0), Q4 (8-0)	6-5/2-2
Tennessee	25-7*	8	4	4	Q1 (10-7), Q2 (5-0), Q3 (4-0), Q4 (6-0)	6-5/3-2*
Duke	28-6	13	67	10	Q1 (6-2), Q2 (6-3), Q3 (8-1), Q4 (8-0)	9-2/4-1
Villanova	26-7	7	16	9	Q1 (7-6), Q2 (10-1), Q3 (4-0), Q4 (5-0)	10-5/4-1
Purdue	27-6*	11	37	7	Q1 (8-5), Q2 (6-1), Q3 (7-0), Q4 (6-0)	5-5/6-0*

The Tigers will find out exactly where they stand soon enough. Then it’s time to let the Madness begin.

Tom Green is an Auburn beat reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @Tomas_Verde.

[AuburnAlumFromThe423 84]

I just wonder with Tennessee winning today, will they send Auburn away from Greenville and put Tennessee there?

[thewhiz7 273]

I sure hope not. If we end up on Greenville I'm there.

[kennypowers 1,431]

So many more deserving teams than the updykes and Michigan.  Neither deserve an invite imo

[Cardin Drake 1,805]

Tennessee at 3 seed in the south. Thought they would be higher.

[zeroforwinger 443]

UT as a 3, basically means we’re a 2. I’m guessing we’re in the Kansas bracket since they’ve already played Kentucky. 

[Tiger96 127]

Playing Jacksonville State. 

[AUDynasty 585]

This is by far the toughest bracket to be in. If we’re going to do this, just as well build up the resiliency and get it done. The last time we were in a bracket this stacked we went to Final Four.

[kennypowers 1,431]

Not mad at the matchups.  Going to be tough but very doable.  Better get it right against JSU

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,641]

We got a layup of a draw oh my lol

[thewhiz7 273]

Got to beat tough teams no matter. I'm stoked we are in Greenville. Looking for tickets.

[zeroforwinger 443]

4 minutes ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

We got a layup of a draw oh my lol

Where do you see it

[e808 3,020]

IMO this still applies. Whether Auburn wins it’s really up to them. No team has flat out beat them this year it’s been Auburns lack of basketball IQ that’s causing them to lose

[zeroforwinger 443]

1 minute ago, zeroforwinger said:

Where do you see it

Never mind. See it now. That’s not bad at all. USC/Miami in 2nd round. Wisconsin in 3rd. I’ll take it. 

[e808 3,020]

Kentucky has a pretty easy  path and Tamu got hosed IMO.

Edited March 14, 2022 by e808

[kennypowers 1,431]

Michigan and the Updykes really pisses me off.   They do not deserve it...so naturally, they'll both be in the sweet sixteen.  Hate it for A&M.  But also I don't like them. 

[aubearcat 2,132]

Good bracket 

 

 

[aucanucktiger 1,789]

Creighton and Miami are the sort of team we struggle with. 

[zeroforwinger 443]

A&M got screwed. I wonder if it was Richmond that knocked them out. 

[e808 3,020]

Hopefully we get at least Auburns B game. I don’t think we have seen Auburn’s A game all year where everything was clicking. However, A game through the tournament would be nice 

[e808 3,020]

4 minutes ago, zeroforwinger said:

A&M got screwed. I wonder if it was Richmond that knocked them out. 

Michigan shouldn’t have been in there for sure

[thewhiz7 273]

I've been googling but haven't been able to find the times of the games. 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,641]

20 minutes ago, e808 said:

Hopefully we get at least Auburns B game. I don’t think we have seen Auburn’s A game all year where everything was clicking. However, A game through the tournament would be nice 

Their C game should be a comfortable win vs JSU honestly 

[GTNupe11 2,033]

42 minutes ago, AUDynasty said:

This is by far the toughest bracket to be in. If we’re going to do this, just as well build up the resiliency and get it done. The last time we were in a bracket this stacked we went to Final Four.

Toughest?! Where?!

West bracket is STACKED. And Baylor doesn't have an easy route either. We got seeded rather nicely all things considered. UW is kind of scary because of how slow they play (i.e., Virginia in 2019), but, this is manageable. 

[AUBwins 10,064]

 

Jax. State

The Gamecocks may be the most interesting automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament. Bellarmine actually won the ASUN Tournament, but because the Knights were still in the transition period from Division II to Division I, they were ineligible to participate in the Big Dance. As such, the bid reverted to Jacksonville State, which was eliminated in the conference semifinals, because the Gamecocks won the regular-season league title. But don't sleep on Ray Harper's squad, which actually swept Bellarmine in their two matchups; the Gamecocks are among the nation's best 3-point shooting teams and use the accompanying spread-out offense to attack the paint well.

That last sentence is the concerning part with them, but we should do enough offensively to overwhelm them.  Teams that shoot lights out from 3 have a shot against us if they keep it up all game.