We're not dead

[Randman5000 4,226]

I'm struggling to find the optimism but I do like that no one has seen us yet. However. I think USC is a bad matchup for us. I actually think we can take Wisconsin in a close one but its going to be a test because we are terrible in half-court basketball but think we can hold defensively. After that it's a crapshoot. 

[mcgufcm 4,096]

22 hours ago, aubaseball said:

I’m not optimistic at all.  Just don’t think you can lose 5 out of the last 9 and feel good going into the tournament.  It’s not only losing, it’s the inconsistency with the guard play.  

It's a good thing we did NOT lose 5 of the last 9 then!! We went 5-4 down the stretch. Thank GOODNESS. Dodged that bullet, amirite?

We lost three true road games and one neutral site game by a combined 15 points. As I've said before, even when we play poorly on offense, that just guarantees us a dog fight in a close game. Any game where we play pretty decent offensively, we win. Any game where we play well offensively, we win easily.

[mcgufcm 4,096]

1 hour ago, Randman5000 said:

I'm struggling to find the optimism but I do like that no one has seen us yet. However. I think USC is a bad matchup for us. I actually think we can take Wisconsin in a close one but its going to be a test because we are terrible in half-court basketball but think we can hold defensively. After that it's a crapshoot. 

I'd rather play USC than Miami. Auburn/USC is just a slog. They'll protect the paint. We'll do the same. Neither team is proficient outside. Similar styles, and we're the more talented team.

In the "styles make fights" category, I don't love having to play against a 5-out offense. Miami will pull Kessler away from the rim and neutralize one of our strengths. They're not as good defensively, but I'd rather play someone a little more conventional.

[zeroforwinger 443]

1 hour ago, mcgufcm said:

It's a good thing we did NOT lose 5 of the last 9 then!! We went 5-4 down the stretch. Thank GOODNESS. Dodged that bullet, amirite?

We lost three true road games and one neutral site game by a combined 15 points. As I've said before, even when we play poorly on offense, that just guarantees us a dog fight in a close game. Any game where we play pretty decent offensively, we win. Any game where we play well offensively, we win easily.

UCLA had lost 4 in a row last year coming into the tourney. Honestly, we’re better off having lost early than playing 3 games in 3 days. We should have fresh legs and plenty of fire after the way the season ended. 

[Mike4AU 1,739]

If AU can just have average shooting I think they can make some noise in the tournament. The D is dang good and gives us a better than good chance of winning games with just average shooting.  Does that means not jacking up a ton of threes and moving closer for shots?

[aubaseball 2,595]

4 hours ago, mcgufcm said:

It's a good thing we did NOT lose 5 of the last 9 then!! We went 5-4 down the stretch. Thank GOODNESS. Dodged that bullet, amirite?

We lost three true road games and one neutral site game by a combined 15 points. As I've said before, even when we play poorly on offense, that just guarantees us a dog fight in a close game. Any game where we play pretty decent offensively, we win. Any game where we play well offensively, we win easily.

You are right on the record.   Had my numbers wrong.   Auburn is mystery when it comes playing outside of Auburn   

Auburn also barely beat mizzu, Georgia and took OT to beat Miss State.   If you really think that Auburn is playing well right now, good for you.    I don’t.  I also believe Kessler is hurting more than it’s being made out.   What has happened to the Bench?   It has disappeared and that was a very underrated part earlier in the year.   Auburn needs all to contribute to make a deep run.   

[AUApostle 7,651]

4 hours ago, Mike4AU said:

If AU can just have average shooting I think they can make some noise in the tournament. The D is dang good and gives us a better than good chance of winning games with just average shooting.  Does that means not jacking up a ton of threes and moving closer for shots?

Not even average…just like 1 shot and a few free throws.

[Viper 3,132]

On 3/13/2022 at 1:55 PM, akillshot said:

Seems like a lot of fans are like the sky is falling. @mcgufcmposted in the topic regarding  "Theory of Slide" the following:

"I don’t think we need anything crazy. If KD plays a bad game on Thursday, we win. If Jabari plays to his level in the second half, we win. That game was razor fine between winning and losing. Flan and Jabari missed 4 FTs at the end of the halves, and one was the front of a 1-1. Dylan missed a lob dunk. Jackson made a spectacular chase down block. Those are the game. Little stuff. 

Just "those are the game"? What about the four consecutive Steph Curry-range 3's that Green made to keep us from losing by double digits? Was that "little stuff"?

The only time I've ever seen anyone make four consecutive 3's from THAT range was...Steph Curry. And he's the best that's ever done it.

Point being...that was an extreme anomaly. Without his mini hot streak, we were going to lose by 15+. We could have made every FT and still would have never been in it without Green's hot streak.

[sandyclawedtiger 206]

Quit taking the three. Take a step in and take the top of key or elbow shot. Make the D take a step up. If they step up drive it in. JMO.

[mcgufcm 4,096]

10 hours ago, Viper said:

Just "those are the game"? What about the four consecutive Steph Curry-range 3's that Green made to keep us from losing by double digits? Was that "little stuff"?

The only time I've ever seen anyone make four consecutive 3's from THAT range was...Steph Curry. And he's the best that's ever done it.

Point being...that was an extreme anomaly. Without his mini hot streak, we were going to lose by 15+. We could have made every FT and still would have never been in it without Green's hot streak.

If we’d missed all our shots, we would’ve lost by 67! Think about that. 

[Viper 3,132]

36 minutes ago, mcgufcm said:

If we’d missed all our shots, we would’ve lost by 67! Think about that. 

We nearly did in the 1st half. 16.22%

[looney 794]

3 hours ago, Viper said:

We nearly did in the 1st half. 16.22%

To mcgufcm's point (joke?) - that 16.22% also an anomaly, right? So one bad anomaly, one good anomaly and it's a close game. 

Can't really pick and choose your "if" scenarios.

[Viper 3,132]

1 hour ago, looney said:

To mcgufcm's point (joke?) - that 16.22% also an anomaly, right? So one bad anomaly, one good anomaly and it's a close game. 

Can't really pick and choose your "if" scenarios.

Missouri 2nd Half 25%

Georgia 2nd Half 32.35%

Arkansas 1st Half 26.47%

Florida 1st Half 33.33%

Tennessee 2nd Half 33.33%

MSU 2nd Half 28.57%

South Carolina 2nd Half 33.33%

Including A&M, that’s EIGHT of our last 13 games.

Those figures are not anomalies. Those aren’t “if” scenarios. Those poor-shooting halves have become the norm. It’s a disturbing trend.

 

Edited March 15, 2022 by Viper

[cole256 17,043]

16 hours ago, Viper said:

Just "those are the game"? What about the four consecutive Steph Curry-range 3's that Green made to keep us from losing by double digits? Was that "little stuff"?

The only time I've ever seen anyone make four consecutive 3's from THAT range was...Steph Curry. And he's the best that's ever done it.

Point being...that was an extreme anomaly. Without his mini hot streak, we were going to lose by 15+. We could have made every FT and still would have never been in it without Green's hot streak.

I watched lamello ball and Isaiah Thomas do it last night......

[cole256 17,043]

There's a fine line with shot selection. Just because you take a step up doesn't mean that particular shooter will make it. 

You have two things going when talking that. One is defensive positioning. It is absolutely possible that a deeper 3 out of a defender range is a better shot or easier shot than a 3 in the range.

Also with the way the game is played now these kids usually don't have the best mid range game. The majority focus on 3's and driving. It may not be a better shot for whatever player being discussed. I know personally I'd hit a bunch more 3's let's say one step behind the line that 3's one step in. Because of repetition and muscle memory because you aren't going to get too many open such in the mid range area.....especially not a guard in college where they implement a bunch of zone. Maybe a pick and pop post guy.......

Lastly if anybody wants I'd love to have a discussion on a bunch of intangible stuff that I don't see get discussed a bunch that goes into college and more specific tournament play.

So something I do worry about with green that I think will be a plus for Smith is eventually the more they progress the more they will lose their legs. Unfortunately with a more jump shooting team like us that's bad. If green takes a bunch of deep shots that eventually wears on you. 

Now Smith with his size will be able to naturally shoot over guys and when other teams wear out a bit that will become a factor. But another negative is with us shooting a bunch of jump shots we won't dictate refs giving us calls and we won't get to the free throw line. This is very important in tourney ball. You can dictate the pace of the game and impose your will using that. It's the equivalent to a strong run game in football, as opposed to a wide open deep passing attack. Boom or bust. 

I have a bunch of stuff that I'd love to talk about if anybody would like to have these discussions. If so just hit me up!

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

To @cole256's point, at this point it is what it is and all we can do is hope our guys play to their abilities. We've lost from turnovers, rebounding and poor shooting. The good news is even in those games this group has fought to the finish and forced teams to eek out wins. Here are the loss margins for some of the top teams in the tourney:

 

Auburn (5 losses) 22 total points, 4.4 average margin of loss, worst loss 6 points

Gonzaga: (3 losses) 22 total points, 7.3333 average margin of loss, worst loss 10 points

Arizona: (3 losses) 36 total points, 12 average margin of loss,  worst loss 16 points (twice)

Duke (5 losses) 37 total points, 7.4 average margin of loss, worst loss 15 points and one by 13 points also

Kentucky (7 losses) lost by 13

Kansas (6 losses) lost by 18 and by 10 twice

Baylor (6 losses) lost by 10 

The only other teams I could find without a loss of 10 or more points were Boise St and UAB. 

I think we can expect this group to be in every single game and have a chance to win them all. What a great position to be in as an Auburn basketball fan. 

[cole256 17,043]

1 minute ago, JwgreDeux said:

To @cole256's point, at this point it is what it is and all we can do is hope our guys play to their abilities. We've lost from turnovers, rebounding and poor shooting. The good news is even in those games this group has fought to the finish and forced teams to eek out wins. Here are the loss margins for some of the top teams in the tourney:

 

Auburn (5 losses) 22 total points, 4.4 average margin of loss, worst loss 6 points

Gonzaga: (3 losses) 22 total points, 7.3333 average margin of loss, worst loss 10 points

Arizona: (3 losses) 36 total points, 12 average margin of loss,  worst loss 16 points (twice)

Duke (5 losses) 37 total points, 7.4 average margin of loss, worst loss 15 points and one by 13 points also

Kentucky (7 losses) lost by 13

Kansas (6 losses) lost by 18 and by 10 twice

Baylor (6 losses) lost by 10 

The only other teams I could find without a loss of 10 or more points were Boise St and UAB. 

I think we can expect this group to be in every single game and have a chance to win them all. What a great position to be in as an Auburn basketball fan. 

Absolutely. With our length and strong defense it will take us having a bunch of turnovers, we run into a buzz saw guy on fire that's around 6'5" and up than can impact the game in a bunch of different ways to a point they dictate the pace, we have 3 people be off the same game, and running into a bona fide NBA player like the Chet guy from gonzaga that has length AND skill with a supporting cast. 

Ican't lie I wish we had a few games where when it was close at the end we dominated, so we'd know what it felt like. I feel we had a few games where we won but our back court will broke down, like the bammer game at bammer for example. 

Even though we lost we had a strong showing that close game against uconn. Hopefully if nothing else we've learned if it's close give it to Smith and we'll live or die with him. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

17 minutes ago, cole256 said:

Absolutely. With our length and strong defense it will take us having a bunch of turnovers, we run into a buzz saw guy on fire that's around 6'5" and up than can impact the game in a bunch of different ways to a point they dictate the pace, we have 3 people be off the same game, and running into a bona fide NBA player like the Chet guy from gonzaga that has length AND skill with a supporting cast. 

Ican't lie I wish we had a few games where when it was close at the end we dominated, so we'd know what it felt like. I feel we had a few games where we won but our back court will broke down, like the bammer game at bammer for example. 

Even though we lost we had a strong showing that close game against uconn. Hopefully if nothing else we've learned if it's close give it to Smith and we'll live or die with him. 

I'd like to see them use Smith and Green in a ball screen at the end, so if a team switches they both have mismatch. Green should be able to drive better and Smith could just elevate and shoot. 

[cole256 17,043]

9 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

I'd like to see them use Smith and Green in a ball screen at the end, so if a team switches they both have mismatch. Green should be able to drive better and Smith could just elevate and shoot. 

Yes. Anything to cause the defense to think and make decisions. I think it would be super interesting if they did flares and pin downs or any techniques that's normally used for smaller guards to create shots and separation, what if we implemented that for him? I think that would be interesting to see the results to that 

[mcgufcm 4,096]

2 hours ago, Viper said:

Missouri 2nd Half 25%

Georgia 2nd Half 32.35%

Arkansas 1st Half 26.47%

Florida 1st Half 33.33%

Tennessee 2nd Half 33.33%

MSU 2nd Half 28.57%

South Carolina 2nd Half 33.33%

Including A&M, that’s EIGHT of our last 13 games.

Those figures are not anomalies. Those aren’t “if” scenarios. Those poor-shooting halves have become the norm. It’s a disturbing trend.

 

Neither are the hot runs!! Those aren’t anomalies. That’s just the game with streaky shooters. 

[akillshot 294]

3 hours ago, cole256 said:

.......

I have a bunch of stuff that I'd love to talk about if anybody would like to have these discussions. If so just hit me up!

@cole256I would enjoy reading your thoughts about the Auburn team/players. I'm afraid the discussion will be all you because my knowledge is limited (plus it has an orange and blue bias😄)

[AUBwins 10,075]

3 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

The only other teams I could find without a loss of 10 or more points were Boise St and UAB. 

Really? I may change a Pick or two with that info.  Thanks lol

[cole256 17,043]

1 hour ago, akillshot said:

@cole256I would enjoy reading your thoughts about the Auburn team/players. I'm afraid the discussion will be all you because my knowledge is limited (plus it has an orange and blue bias😄)

It's just talking bro. We're basically all guessing then watching what happens! 😂

Is there any particular player and any subject you have in mind?

[akillshot 294]

@cole256Some items that come to mind are:

Besides making shots, best way for Auburn to run the offense in the postseason

Lot of talk about the guards not feeding the post - what's the process to develop that (too late for this year of course)

Thoughts on Zep's whole game - some of the comments and articles I've seen on him impress me about him as a person, not just a basketball player

How does Flanigan get back to where he was or better - He's one my favorites with how he developed from a freshman to his second year - improved free throw shooting, improved shot-making, and his physical development in that offseason. His unfortunate injury was ruinous for him for this year.

 

 

[Viper 3,132]

7 hours ago, cole256 said:

I watched lamello ball and Isaiah Thomas do it last night......

https://www.espn.com/nba/playbyplay/_/gameId/401360842

10:08 Isaiah Thomas makes 23-foot three point jumper (Montrezl Harrell assists) 32 - 47

9:18 LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mason Plumlee assists) 75 - 66

8:44 LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists) 78 - 69

 

Wow those two guys made four consecutive 3-pointers. Right behind the 3-point line in fact. So has Ray Allen. So has Reggie Miller. So has Larry Bird. So has Michael Jordan. So has Klay Thompson. So has James Harden. And dozens upon dozens of others.

Don't be asinine. 25-footers aren't "Steph Curry-range." 25 feet is merely 15 inches behind the 3-point line. Everyone knows Curry commonly shoots from 30+ foot range.

If you're going to quote me and provide information as a rebuttal, at least get it close to factually right. You've got 5 more feet to go.

Now go do some actual homework this time and find four consecutive made Steph Curry-range threes i.e. 30+ footers. Here's a hint, smartie...start your research with Trae Young as he might just be the only other one to have ever done it.