Future for Harsin depends on QB decision

[GunsmithAU 383]

9 hours ago, Mikey said:

You've got a lot of if's in there. We didn't end 4-7, we ended 6-5. All that counts is the final score. Referee calls even out over a season, you know that.

Ref calls of the magnitude of these don't even out. They directly and indisputably changed the outcome of the game. I'll challenge you to find other calls against us that were if this magnitude and severity for directly choosing the outcome. 

[provibe 261]

On 4/10/2022 at 11:16 PM, Mikey said:

Or, win the three gimme games, split with MSU and Mizzou and then....???? We'll be the underdog in every other game on the schedule. 4-8 or 5-7 seems likely. An exceptional recruiting season next year could save Harsin for a third season, but when, exactly, is that going to start?

The transfer portal: 247 sports has a transfer portal ranking that ranks schools on who they bring in, much like a recruiting ranking. Four SEC schools are currently in the top ten, with Ol' Miss sitting at #1. Auburn is 35th. When are we going to start?

Why don’t you just tell us how much you dislike our coach and be done with it! 

[aucom96 1,614]

Recruiting - not QB play - is going to decide Harsin's future. Our roster is what it is. We don't have a "weapon" on the roster right now at QB. At best, we've got a smart decision maker who can make high percentage throws quickly and move the ball.

Harsin has not to date had any success with our line issues. He has not to date had much success with our receiver deficit. He does seem to be putting more effort into publicly selling the program, but he has to have wins. We need transfers for this season or we risk another losing record. We need recruits to build on. We're behind in both categories. If he can fix that, he'll get the time to rebuild this mess. If he can't, Auburn will find someone who can. 

Simplifying this to a spring QB battle - which is largely non-existent - is just the sort of blabber al.com typically spews. With Auburn this year, I don't think it's even kind of interesting. Calzada has to be the man. If he isn't, I suspect we've got a dismal year ahead. 

[Mikey 16,550]

20 minutes ago, provibe said:

Why don’t you just tell us how much you dislike our coach and be done with it! 

I don't dislike the coach. What I don't like is the failure to produce positive results so far.

Point out where I'm unfair with the following grades: Recruiting, C-, Transfer Portal, D, Player retention, D, Won/loss, in-game coaching decisions, D. Staffing, with the possible exception of the Ike Hillyard hire, C- at best.

If you are happy with Harsin's results so far, that's fine for you. The only positives I have seen are the very subjective "Oh but we've got a better culture." That culture will be tested soon. Does that, if true, convert into wins? It didn't last season.

[au302 2,669]

47 minutes ago, GunsmithAU said:

Fixing, or at least attempting to fix, the OL does more to help the team than any RB,WR, or QB. Even if the new OL injections didn't make us the best OL in the SEC, it's couldn't get worse. 

I agree. It's all about the trenches. I'm not happy either with the lack of portal OL additions. That said, it would've been hard to run off all those guys last summer when the portal first opened and broke in a new group full of portal guys in the fall. What I would've, and would, like to see is us get a guard/center and a tackle this summer who could possibly start this year at LG and RT, but definitely next. Do that and my portal OL complaints will subside 

[Mikey 16,550]

9 hours ago, au302 said:

I said in there that thankfully those calls weren't made. Of course the record reflects that we were 6-5. Not stupid. I know there's no convincing you on any of it, and that's cool. Just pointing out the whole context for the rest of us

Included in that "whole context" is you assume AU would have lost at LSU. What justifies that? Harsin's calls didn't win that game, some exceptional plays by Bo Nix won that game. Nix would have been the starting QB no matter who the coach was. I could continue, but that's enough to quash the context statement.

[provibe 261]

18 minutes ago, Mikey said:

I don't dislike the coach. What I don't like is the failure to produce positive results so far.

Point out where I'm unfair with the following grades: Recruiting, C-, Transfer Portal, D, Player retention, D, Won/loss, in-game coaching decisions, D. Staffing, with the possible exception of the Ike Hillyard hire, C- at best.

If you are happy with Harsin's results so far, that's fine for you. The only positives I have seen are the very subjective "Oh but we've got a better culture." That culture will be tested soon. Does that, if true, convert into wins? It didn't last season.

I don’t believe that 1 full year, especially with all that took place that was not his fault, is anywhere near long enough to evaluate what he can do. And yes I see a lot of positive in the recruits that he is bringing in. I am more than willing to give him 3 or 4 full years to see what he can do. I am also pleased with coaches he retained and brought in. I think his being given enough time to prove what he can do will be extremely more beneficial to Auburn than to change coaches everycouple of years! Yes I know that’s my opinion and you have yours that you continually express 

[bigbird 60,368]

2 hours ago, GunsmithAU said:

Ref calls of the magnitude of these don't even out. They directly and indisputably changed the outcome of the game. I'll challenge you to find other calls against us that were if this magnitude and severity for directly choosing the outcome. 

He can't. You know it, he knows it, the entire board knows it.  

[au302 2,669]

1 hour ago, Mikey said:

Included in that "whole context" is you assume AU would have lost at LSU. What justifies that? Harsin's calls didn't win that game, some exceptional plays by Bo Nix won that game. Nix would have been the starting QB no matter who the coach was. I could continue, but that's enough to quash the context statement.

I mean, of course, anythings possible, but considering that Gus was something like 0-18 on the road to our 3 rivals, I tend to believe that that's enough of a sample size to show me that he likely wasn't winning there last year, or likely ever

[provibe 261]

1 hour ago, provibe said:

I don’t believe that 1 full year, especially with all that took place that was not his fault, is anywhere near long enough to evaluate what he can do. And yes I see a lot of positive in the recruits that he is bringing in. I am more than willing to give him 3 or 4 full years to see what he can do. I am also pleased with coaches he retained and brought in. I think his being given enough time to prove what he can do will be extremely more beneficial to Auburn than to change coaches everycouple of years! Yes I know that’s my opinion and you have yours that you continually express 

 Can’t believe cole gave me a thumbs down. Lol

[NWALA Tiger 3,534]

1 hour ago, provibe said:

I don’t believe that 1 full year, especially with all that took place that was not his fault, is anywhere near long enough to evaluate what he can do. And yes I see a lot of positive in the recruits that he is bringing in. I am more than willing to give him 3 or 4 full years to see what he can do. I am also pleased with coaches he retained and brought in. I think his being given enough time to prove what he can do will be extremely more beneficial to Auburn than to change coaches everycouple of years! Yes I know that’s my opinion and you have yours that you continually express 

Some cats would rather we change coaches every year , until we strike gold. They have no idea how far back that sets a program. They just wanna change.. Unless of course it's Gustav. Then 8 yrs isn't enuf

[bigbird 60,368]

10 minutes ago, NWALA Tiger said:

Some cats would rather we change coaches every year , until we strike gold. They have no idea how far back that sets a program. They just wanna change.. Unless of course it's Gustav. Then 8 yrs isn't enuf

Patience is no longer the norm. Everything is a rush to judgement.

[cole256 17,039]

1 hour ago, provibe said:

 Can’t believe cole gave me a thumbs down. Lol

Thought you were somebody else lol. Proud will come around in a second and dislike all my posts then lie and say he doesn't follow me around and do that as if everybody can't see when you dislike stuff

 

look at how you got a like already from that though! If you ever need any likes just say you hate Cole or something like that and you'll get 3 or 4 free likes on me 😂

Edited April 12, 2022 by cole256

[NWALA Tiger 3,534]

1 hour ago, NWALA Tiger said:

Some cats would rather we change coaches every year , until we strike gold. They have no idea how far back that sets a program. They just wanna change.. Unless of course it's Gustav. Then 8 yrs isn't enuf

Thanks for the facepalm, Proud Tiger

Let's me know I'm on the right track

[meh130 1,043]

3 hours ago, provibe said:

I don’t believe that 1 full year, especially with all that took place that was not his fault, is anywhere near long enough to evaluate what he can do. And yes I see a lot of positive in the recruits that he is bringing in. I am more than willing to give him 3 or 4 full years to see what he can do. I am also pleased with coaches he retained and brought in. I think his being given enough time to prove what he can do will be extremely more beneficial to Auburn than to change coaches everycouple of years! Yes I know that’s my opinion and you have yours that you continually express 

Here is the issue. A new coach needs to hit it out of the park with hiring of staff early. They need to hit it out of the park in recruiting early. They need to hit it out of the park in the transfer portal early. While Auburn is the exception, given we had a near coup just one year into a new coach's tenure, the fact is by year three a coach that is not producing expected results will be in the hot seat. That means going into year three they may not have the hiring ability they had going into year one. In theory, they can offer a prospective assistant a two-year guaranteed contract, if the PTB will allow for it.

I think AU put Harsin in a bad spot to begin. Firing Malzahn was delayed due in part to the COVID season delays, and the desire of the PTB to wait until the end of the season. Then there was the fiasco of the "no search" to "search", the "Stop Steele" movement and the drama around it, and the appearance of total disfunction around the PTB and the athletic department. That poisoned the well for many–not just potential HC candidates, but potential assistants.

Harsin did his best to get an OC and DC with SEC experience–not the best hires, but adequate. He hired some others with experience in the south. However, probably due to the fact Harsin was not well known to many of the staff outside of Bobo, and Harsin's know personality/demeanor, some of these hires turned out to not fit with what Harsin wanted and felt he needed. Then you have the coaching turnover. Tracy Rocker leaves before he begins. Harsin fires Cornelius Williams after the Penn State game. Harsin felt it was an immediate necessity, but others saw problems. We cratered in the last games of the season. People wonder if Harsin is in over his head. Bobo was fired, many were fine with that. Then there was the strange departure of Derek Mason. Some wanted Mason gone earlier. Some as early as after the Penn State game. Then one of Harsin's solid hires (who was questioned originally due to his lack of college coaching experience), Nick Eason, leaves for his alma mater. An exodus of players to the transfer portal happens. Harsin struggles with hiring a replacement for Bobo, then has his replacement depart before starting, leaving more questions of Harsin's hiring ability. After a solid early signing day, national signing day is a non-event. Auburn struggles to rebuild its staff and appears to take backward steps in most of its hires. There is the attempted coup, followed by the hire of a wide receivers coach.

Harsin simply did not have the currency to make better hires going into year two compared to year one. He had to make his home-run hires in year one. However, had we done better, perhaps beating MSU and USCe, even losing our bowl game, with an 8-5 result, Harsin may have had the currency needed. But he could not predict that going in.

If we need to make more coaching changes after this coming season, Harsin will likely have even less currency than after last season. That is, unless we exceed expectations.

You may recall Malzahn also got stuck with hiring struggles when it came to replacing Chip Lindsey after the 2018 season.

A coach in the hot seat will struggle to hire assistants. They will struggle to recruit. It becomes a death spiral.

I think that is why we are starting to see head coaches fired in mid-season. It takes the uncertainty out of the opportunity. It tells prospects a head coaching job is open. It allows the university to start vetting candidates a month or more before other HC positions open up. It allows candidates to build a list of potential assistants early and gauge interest, to get ahead of other HC candidates looking to do the same.

I don't know what the future holds for Auburn under Harsin. However, if the PTB decide he needs to be replaced at some point, I hope they get their act together this time.

[Tiger Refuge 6,660]

It's...

 

Only...

 

April....

[provibe 261]

2 hours ago, cole256 said:

Thought you were somebody else lol. Proud will come around in a second and dislike all my posts then lie and say he doesn't follow me around and do that as if everybody can't see when you dislike stuff

 

look at how you got a like already from that though! If you ever need any likes just say you hate Cole or something like that and you'll get 3 or 4 free likes on me 😂

Well maybe we just both misunderstood, anyway I just don’t care for all the constant negative remarks and I honestly don’t think changing coaches every 2 or 3 years will in any way help accomplish building a winning program!

[Eagle-1 3,821]

15 hours ago, Mikey said:

You need to re-assess your doubts. I have said numerous times that it was time for a change. I also said unless we were very, very lucky we'd go through several coaches before we found one that would stick. Sadly, so far that prediction is looking good.

I expected a 10-2 regular season. The players were in place to accomplish that. Any number of Harsin apologists on here have said we'd have finished 9-3 if Bo Nix didn't get hurt. My prediction was very much in agreement with that.

Start with 6-4 against an all-SEC regular season schedule in 2020. Then add three gimme games in '21 and take away two conference games, with few player losses between seasons and 10-2 was well within reach.

Upgrade the roster beginning with the '23 class and then wait to see if he can avoid a losing season with that? Whoever is calling the shots at Auburn won't have that much patience.

Dude, if you think we had the players in place to win 10 games last season I see no point in further argument.

I have a tree in my back yard I could probably make understand my point better.

[augolf1716 21,096]

1 hour ago, Tiger Refuge said:

It's...

 

Only...

 

April....

Tell me about it soon to be its only May......birthday hint hint hint

[au302 2,669]

2 hours ago, meh130 said:

Here is the issue. A new coach needs to hit it out of the park with hiring of staff early. They need to hit it out of the park in recruiting early. They need to hit it out of the park in the transfer portal early. While Auburn is the exception, given we had a near coup just one year into a new coach's tenure, the fact is by year three a coach that is not producing expected results will be in the hot seat. That means going into year three they may not have the hiring ability they had going into year one. In theory, they can offer a prospective assistant a two-year guaranteed contract, if the PTB will allow for it.

I think AU put Harsin in a bad spot to begin. Firing Malzahn was delayed due in part to the COVID season delays, and the desire of the PTB to wait until the end of the season. Then there was the fiasco of the "no search" to "search", the "Stop Steele" movement and the drama around it, and the appearance of total disfunction around the PTB and the athletic department. That poisoned the well for many–not just potential HC candidates, but potential assistants.

Harsin did his best to get an OC and DC with SEC experience–not the best hires, but adequate. He hired some others with experience in the south. However, probably due to the fact Harsin was not well known to many of the staff outside of Bobo, and Harsin's know personality/demeanor, some of these hires turned out to not fit with what Harsin wanted and felt he needed. Then you have the coaching turnover. Tracy Rocker leaves before he begins. Harsin fires Cornelius Williams after the Penn State game. Harsin felt it was an immediate necessity, but others saw problems. We cratered in the last games of the season. People wonder if Harsin is in over his head. Bobo was fired, many were fine with that. Then there was the strange departure of Derek Mason. Some wanted Mason gone earlier. Some as early as after the Penn State game. Then one of Harsin's solid hires (who was questioned originally due to his lack of college coaching experience), Nick Eason, leaves for his alma mater. An exodus of players to the transfer portal happens. Harsin struggles with hiring a replacement for Bobo, then has his replacement depart before starting, leaving more questions of Harsin's hiring ability. After a solid early signing day, national signing day is a non-event. Auburn struggles to rebuild its staff and appears to take backward steps in most of its hires. There is the attempted coup, followed by the hire of a wide receivers coach.

Harsin simply did not have the currency to make better hires going into year two compared to year one. He had to make his home-run hires in year one. However, had we done better, perhaps beating MSU and USCe, even losing our bowl game, with an 8-5 result, Harsin may have had the currency needed. But he could not predict that going in.

If we need to make more coaching changes after this coming season, Harsin will likely have even less currency than after last season. That is, unless we exceed expectations.

You may recall Malzahn also got stuck with hiring struggles when it came to replacing Chip Lindsey after the 2018 season.

A coach in the hot seat will struggle to hire assistants. They will struggle to recruit. It becomes a death spiral.

I think that is why we are starting to see head coaches fired in mid-season. It takes the uncertainty out of the opportunity. It tells prospects a head coaching job is open. It allows the university to start vetting candidates a month or more before other HC positions open up. It allows candidates to build a list of potential assistants early and gauge interest, to get ahead of other HC candidates looking to do the same.

I don't know what the future holds for Auburn under Harsin. However, if the PTB decide he needs to be replaced at some point, I hope they get their act together this time.

Very good post. I agree with a lot of this. Waiting until the end of the season to fire Gus was a huge mistake during the covid year solely because of how the late end to the season screwed up early signing day. Want the new coach in place so that he can assess the commits and figure out who to allow to sign. May have had less attrition from the '21 class if not for that.

In terms of hot seat, I'm in agreement with year 3. That is natural. Let a coach get a couple of classes in and start putting some pressure. Problem is public perception is that it's blazing before year two has even started. Whether that's reality behind the scenes or not, and even if it's actually true that Harsin and the PTB's are now on the same page and pulling together, good luck with negative recruiting. 

[GunsmithAU 383]

With the new portal and NIL, I don't see coaches getting any more than 3 years to make serious strides. 

New HCs at established programs have ways to immediately fill gaps that didn't exist just a few years ago. 

If by the end of year 2 a coach isn't making major improvements, whether it be W/L, filling team needs, upgrading recruiting, etc. if year 3 isn't a banger, they're out. 

[toddc 13,194]