Give predictions for 2022

[Zeek]

17 hours ago, AUDevil said:

5-7

That would be absolutely brutal.

[AUDevil]

1 hour ago, Zeek said:

That would be absolutely brutal.

Just feels like one of those preseasons where we’re trying to convince ourselves that we’re better than we really are.  Too many “if”s.

[woodford]

21 hours ago, W.E.D said:

Too much of an unknown right now to even guess.  We still have 7 or 8 players that we can sign.  A lot can change in the next 4- 6 weeks.

If we sign an OL or two, experienced WR, plus another guy, safety and I think we have a ceiling of 10 wins.  We don't add much of note that helps in '22 and I'm not going to be shocked at any record prediction between 3-9 and 8-4

Pretty much exactly what I was going to say lol

If Auburn can run the ball successfully, they will compete for the West thanks to the help they will have on defense. Ashford or Calzada could probably navigate the offense with Tank and Hunter carrying the O and eating up clock. Maybe the staff has some plans for bringing in some help up front. 

If not, they'll win 3-5 games and Harsin is most likely gone. This sucks because I want to smoke Penn State at home. It will be primetime and all the rah rah.

[VAtiger12]

If there's one thing I know from being an Auburn fan.. it won't be a cut and dry 3-9 record that gets Harsin fired or a 10-2 outstanding record that affirms his greatness. It will be somewhere in the 6-7/7-6 range with stretches of good and stretches of bad.  Everyone will take sides, recruiting will be bordering on great but likely ends up so-so. The Powers That Be get riled up again most likely. 

Edited May 3 by VAtiger12

[Rednilla]

10 hours ago, Mikey said:

I won't be surprised to see Geriner as the #1 QB by mid-season if not before. His top side is better than the others. But, it might be too soon for him.

It's too early to predict a record with any certainty. We could add players through the portal, we could lose some to injuries and other factors.

I can see winning the three gimme games, splitting with Mizzou and MSU and losing the rest for 4-8. Or we could get a good bounce in some game and finish 5-7.

We should know enough to make a serious prediction by late August.

Mikey: It's too early to predict a record, so let me go ahead and predict a crappy record anyway.

[abw0004]

Instead of a prediction, I just would like to give thoughts on what I would like to see to consider it a successful season:

1.  I would like to see our recruiting for 2023 really pay off.  Anything less than a top 10 class would be a failure for me, personally.  That may be expecting too much, but we need to erase this bad taste in our mouth for the shortfalls in February on the recruiting trail.

2.  I would love to see Holden take the starting job and for us to see him grow under Harsin's guidance.  Not only this, but for our wide receivers (freshmen in particular) take the next step.

If both of those things happen, I don't care about the record because I will know our future is bright.

[im4aual]

Been going to Auburn games for over fifty years, and had season tickets the last 45, but I've never been less hopeful than I am now.  I'll be in the stands doing all I can to support them, but last year's losing record, five game losing streak (worst in 71 years), and the blown double digit leads at home don't give me much confidence that this year's less talented team will fair better.  I think we start out 3-0 and still end up with seven losses.  

[Zeek]

2 hours ago, AUDevil said:

Just feels like one of those preseasons where we’re trying to convince ourselves that we’re better than we really are.  Too many “if”s.

I agree. Really not convinced we have a QB on the roster any better or equal to what we just lost. It does seem like the defense should improve and the OL literally couldn't get worse with pretty much everyone back and the second year in the same system.

[Barnacle]

2 hours ago, AUDevil said:

Just feels like one of those preseasons where we’re trying to convince ourselves that we’re better than we really are.  Too many “if”s.

Hate it, but I agree. I don’t think we have a very high ceiling - maybe 8-4, but believe our floor is very, very low. 

[W.E.D]

8 minutes ago, Zeek said:

I agree. Really not convinced we have a QB on the roster any better or equal to what we just lost.

Bo and Calzada were near identical in terms of performance.  Neither were very good, both had good moments, both had bad moments.

I'm not sure the loss of Bo is going to be some detrimental thing.

[W.E.D]

Just now, Barnacle said:

Hate it, but I agree. I don’t think we have a very high ceiling - maybe 8-4, but believe our floor is very, very low. 

I agree with this.  I think our ceiling is 8 or 9 wins.  If things come together we're capable of being everyone outside Bama/UGA/A&M.  But things could be bad, we could have continued bad coaching decisions that we saw last year, new coordinators aren't SEC level, injuries, etc and easily lose 9 games too

[NWALA Tiger]

3 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

I agree with this.  I think our ceiling is 8 or 9 wins.  If things come together we're capable of being everyone outside Bama/UGA/A&M.  But things could be bad, we could have continued bad coaching decisions that we saw last year, new coordinators aren't SEC level, injuries, etc and easily lose 9 games too

Easily lose 9 games?   No way 

[Zeek]

5 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

Bo and Calzada were near identical in terms of performance.  Neither were very good, both had good moments, both had bad moments.

I'm not sure the loss of Bo is going to be some detrimental thing.

2021 Calzada | 184 comp 327 att | 56.3% | 2,185 yards | 17 TDs 9 INTs | 35 carries for -9 yards and 1 TD

2021 Nix | 197 comp 323 att | 61% | 2,294 yards | 11 TDs 3 INTs | 57 carries for 168 yards and 4 TDs

 

Nix had two less games than Calzada. To call them identical is wild to me. Auburn fans continue to undervalue Bo.

[Tigerpro2a]

21 hours ago, JerryAU said:

Calzada is just not SEC caliber, and neither is TJ.  🤢

I am curious why you think this? Did you believe Bo Nix was SEC caliber QB? I already know why WED doesn't think ZC is good (because of stats and the preconceived notion that AM had a better OL and WR o he should have been better) but what makes you think he isn't or can't be SEC QB? What are his strengths and weaknesses?

[W.E.D]

5 minutes ago, NWALA Tiger said:

Easily lose 9 games?   No way 

I honestly don't think there is much separation between us and PSU/Mizzou/LSU/Ole Miss/Miss State/Arkansas.  Every single one of those games is winnable and losable.  I don't think we will win or lose each one, but we could.

[W.E.D]

8 minutes ago, Zeek said:

2021 Calzada | 184 comp 327 att | 56.3% | 2,185 yards | 17 TDs 9 INTs | 35 carries for -9 yards and 1 TD

2021 Nix | 197 comp 323 att | 61% | 2,294 yards | 11 TDs 3 INTs | 57 carries for 168 yards and 4 TDs

 

Nix had two less games than Calzada. To call them identical is wild to me. Auburn fans continue to undervalue Bo.

Calzada only played 11 games vs Bo's 10.  So just on game.  Calzada's "12th game" was 1 attempt vs Kent State.

17TDs > 11TDS.  That's kinda important for a QB.  One can actually throw down field well.  Bo also had 26 starts under his belt, Calzada had 0.  They aren't that far off.

Auburn fans acting like we lost a Heisman winner and replaced him with a bum is ridiculous.  We lost a below average QB with 38 starts and replaced him with a below average QB with 10 starts. 

[fishepa]

I say this every year but I would just like us to look like a competent team that makes a trending upward progression throughout the year which makes it seem like our coaches are actually making progress and players are getting better.  It never seems to happen though.

[W.E.D]

15 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

I am curious why you think this? Did you believe Bo Nix was SEC caliber QB? I already know why WED doesn't think ZC is good (because of stats and the preconceived notion that AM had a better OL and WR o he should have been better) but what makes you think he isn't or can't be SEC QB? What are his strengths and weaknesses?

I'm pretty consistent.  I thought Bo could get better and he eventually did in his final 4 games or so.  I'm not sure he ever had a 4 game span like his last 4 games, which even included a down game vs A&M.  I think his Comp% was near 70 and close to avg 300yds.

I think Calzada was bad, but I still think he can get better.  He had no experience last and year and similar to TJ was thrusted into action taking over for a hurt QB.

Calzada has a big arm.  He's a legit threat to throw it down field and take the top off a defense.  He's actually good at it too and had one of the better catch% over 25 yards.  That isn't something we've had in a while.  How many times did Bo/TJ overthrow or off target throw a WR running wide open down the field?  That could be a huge benefit.  His biggest negative is accuracy and lack of touch.  Hopefully the later can be improved on.  Going from 0 starts to 12 heading into a season is a benefit.  I wish he was fully able to go through spring here.

[Zeek]

3 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

Calzada only played 11 games vs Bo's 10.  So just on game.  Calzada's "12th game" was 1 attempt vs Kent State.

17TDs > 11TDS.  That's kinda important for a QB.  One can actually throw down field well.  Bo also had 26 starts under his belt, Calzada had 0.  They aren't that far off.

Auburn fans acting like we lost a Heisman winner and replaced him with a bum is ridiculous.  We lost a below average QB with 38 starts and replaced him with a below average QB with 10 starts. 

1. Still more games

2. The touchdown numbers compared to interceptions matters. But keep cherry picking.

3. Bo had better yardage per attempt but I agree Calzada has a better touch on his deep ball.

4. Calzada is in his fourth year of college football just like Bo. We can argue about starts but don't act like Bo has a head start.

5. Strawman argument. I'm not treating him like he was a Heisman winner but he was better than Calzada. More accurate? Check. Protect the ball better? Check. Better mobility? Check. More experience? Check. I'm not saying the gap is huge but to pretend Calzada is better is wild to me.

 

All that said. I hope he does end up better than Bo. Last year's offense was hideous all the way around.

[woodford]

Bo vs Zach in Player Predicated Points Added (PPA/EPA) in 2021

 

[W.E.D]

14 minutes ago, Zeek said:

We can argue about starts but don't act like Bo has a head start.

Infinite more amount of starts and game activity is pretty damn important.  Bo had 25 more starts, got pulled vs Ga State University b/c he was so terrible.

Bo is not a major loss. 

[Zeek]

2 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

Infinite more amount of starts and game activity is pretty damn important.  Bo had 25 more starts, got pulled vs Ga State University b/c he was so terrible.

Bo is not a major loss. 

K.

[Tiger Refuge]

23 minutes ago, fishepa said:

I say this every year but I would just like us to look like a competent team that makes a trending upward progression throughout the year which makes it seem like our coaches are actually making progress and players are getting better.  It never seems to happen though.

But the roller coaster is soooooo much fun, amirite?

[CoffeeTiger]

Too many unknowns for me to feel confident in a prediction, but my gut feeling is 7-5. 

We clearly not talented enough to compete for an SEC title...yet we're not terrible...and talent and good coaching should ensure we don't have a losing record. 

 

I'd be happy with an 8-4 record 

7-5/6-6 would leave me with a 'meh' feeling, and expecting big things from the staff on the recruiting trail to keep hope up.  

a losing record wouldn't be good and if that occurs it might be best to just not follow college football as closely for the next few years while AU tries to get it's act together. 

[JerryAU]

7 hours ago, AUwent said:

CBH probs gets one more year to show progress in that case.

That's back to back losing seasons, absolutely unacceptable at a place like Auburn.  There will no progress in recruiting if this staff turns in another losing season and NIL boosters will sour real quick.