Vegas over/under on games won by Auburn: 5.5

[Mikey 16,550]

47 minutes ago, Gowebb11 said:

Fixed it:

McDonald, Calzada, Asante, James, Jones, and Joseph were all significant contributors or starters at their previous schools and had extensive playing time so we did add experience at various positions. The majority of the 19 who left were minimal contributors. 

Minimal contributors such as our leading receiver and our leading tackler? The best DB in the SEC or a three year starter at QB?  You have an odd idea of minimal contributor.

[Gowebb11 9,308]

19 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Minimal contributors such as our leading receiver and our leading tackler? The best DB in the SEC or a three year starter at QB?  You have an odd idea of minimal contributor.

And you have a reading compression problem. I said the majority of the 19 portal transfers you referred to, not all. 

Edited May 30, 2022 by Gowebb11

[Mikey 16,550]

3 minutes ago, Gowebb11 said:

And you have a reading compression problem. I said the majority of the 19, not all. 

I don't think I'm the one with the comprehension problem. You initially responded to this post of mine: "AU had one drafted? and lost a total of 19 to the portal plus a few more just moved on from college."

 

We lost far more than just the 19 who left via the portal. Only one of the four I mentioned above exited through the portal. The others I named and several more like them simply left to pursue other interests. Smoke Monday, for one example.

With the topic being whether we gained or lost talent/experience in the off season, all of the losses need to be considered, not just the portal. Also, several promising younger players such as Tennison and Pegues left through the portal, which hurts the future.  AU had a net loss during the off season, both in quality and quantity.

[W.E.D 11,070]

2 hours ago, Mikey said:

In order to gain, the incoming had to exceed the outgoing. We lost more than we brought in, therefore we didn't gain. It shouldn't be that hard to understand, even for you.

The only position one could argue we're truly weaker is corner.

Everything else is a push or better.  Loads of experience is gained at a lot of positions bs last year.  We are drastically better across every position on the DL.  We are probably better at QB which is extremely important 

[W.E.D 11,070]

2 hours ago, Mikey said:

"AU had one drafted? and lost a total of 19 to the portal plus a few more just moved on from college."

So we lost 1 single good player. Anyone else is easily replaceable. Not a single other player that left was anywhere close to an upper level SEC player.

And everyone coming back has more experience 

[W.E.D 11,070]

In one thread Mick claims we should win 9 or 10 games.

In another thread Mick claims we lost so much talent, didn't replace it with anyone, and will be less talented than a team ghaf just went 6-7

It's almost like he shouldn't be taken seriously and is a joke

[metafour 4,958]

23 hours ago, W.E.D said:

Yes, we're at home.  LSU lost an absolute ton of talent.  I'm pretty sure they had double digit players drafted and also a ton of kids transfer.

Bad team vs bad team....I'm going with home being a slight favorite

 

LSU also had 15 transfer portal additions, some of them with fairly high praise. Don't forget that part. Depending on how well Kelly evaluated, that is a lot of immediate talent coming in for them as well.

[fredst 9,064]

2 hours ago, W.E.D said:

In one thread Mick claims we should win 9 or 10 games.

In another thread Mick claims we lost so much talent, didn't replace it with anyone, and will be less talented than a team ghaf just went 6-7

It's almost like he shouldn't be taken seriously and is a joke

I’m not one to jump to defend Mikey, he doesn’t need my help there, but….in his defense I believe he consistently said that we should win 9-10 games *last* year but has also consistently said about 5-6 wins this coming year. Admittedly, I have spent little time on the board recently though…

[Didba 5,256]

57 minutes ago, fredst said:

I’m not one to jump to defend Mikey, he doesn’t need my help there, but….in his defense I believe he consistently said that we should win 9-10 games *last* year but has also consistently said about 5-6 wins this coming year. Admittedly, I have spent little time on the board recently though…

Also not wanting to defend Mikey but this tracks with what I have read.

[passthebiscuits 6,831]

On 5/28/2022 at 2:08 PM, homersapien said:

Seriously? 

100%
 

tell me the 6 wins. What’s our plan? Throw it deep to Shenker?

Edited May 30, 2022 by passthebiscuits

[kennypowers 1,431]

9-3

[Didba 5,256]

1 hour ago, passthebiscuits said:

100%
 

tell me the 6 wins. What’s our plan? Throw it deep to Shenker?

5-0 to start the year, 4-1 at worst. The plan is to run Harsin's offense and play sound defense.  Its a fairly simple concept tbh.

[WarEagle1983 2,185]

I think the total could move depending on who is thought to be our starting QB. At this point, i think it's based on if we played today it would be TJ. Then the number of wins predicted is accurate. However, if Zach is making good progress and news is consistently positive during camp...that number will easily get to 6 and possibly 6.5. 

I'm not a big futures bettor unlike the regular season b/c i don't like to tie up my money. But the only way i'd take a bet on Auburn over 5.5 is if I'm ahead of the news that Zach will likely be our starter. I just can't lay anything with TJ.  

[Rednilla 5,383]

53 minutes ago, WarEagle1983 said:

I think the total could move depending on who is thought to be our starting QB. At this point, i think it's based on if we played today it would be TJ. Then the number of wins predicted is accurate. However, if Zach is making good progress and news is consistently positive during camp...that number will easily get to 6 and possibly 6.5. 

I'm not a big futures bettor unlike the regular season b/c i don't like to tie up my money. But the only way i'd take a bet on Auburn over 5.5 is if I'm ahead of the news that Zach will likely be our starter. I just can't lay anything with TJ.  

The only way TJ gets a sniff of the starter role is if he makes some serious strides during summer camp and preseason practice. Right now, he's running #4. Calzada is the frontrunner, and then Geriner and Ashford are battling hard for the backup role.

I'm told that Ashford will have a package, regardless of whether he starts, to take advantage of his athleticism in short yardage/goal line situations.

What I've been able to piece together makes it seem like if the pecking order remains the same until the season, Calzada starts, and if he gets injured in a game, Ashford would be the guy to go in for him, but if Calzada was going to be out for more than a week or two after that then Geriner would be the one who got the reins. (In other words, Geriner is running slightly ahead of Ashford, but they really want to preserve his redshirt if they can help it.)

[WarEagle1983 2,185]

1 minute ago, Rednilla said:

The only way TJ gets a sniff of the starter role is if he makes some serious strides during summer camp and preseason practice. Right now, he's running #4. Calzada is the frontrunner, and then Geriner and Ashford are battling hard for the backup role.

I'm told that Ashford will have a package, regardless of whether he starts, to take advantage of his athleticism in short yardage/goal line situations.

What I've been able to piece together makes it seem like if the pecking order remains the same until the season, Calzada starts, and if he gets injured in a game, Ashford would be the guy to go in for him, but if Calzada was going to be out for more than a week or two after that then Geriner would be the one who got the reins.

I've said all along that I want ZC starting. However, I still don't think it's a done deal due to the amount of time ZC has missed and getting adjusted to a new team and system. 

[Rednilla 5,383]

3 minutes ago, WarEagle1983 said:

I've said all along that I want ZC starting. However, I still don't think it's a done deal due to the amount of time ZC has missed and getting adjusted to a new team and system. 

It's not a done deal by any means, but if it's not him, it's far more likely to be Ashford or Geriner than Finley, according to my intel.

[Mikey 16,550]

10 hours ago, W.E.D said:

So we lost 1 single good player. Anyone else is easily replaceable. Not a single other player that left was anywhere close to an upper level SEC player.

And everyone coming back has more experience 

That laughable. All McClain did was lead the nation in tackles one year and be among the leaders another year, to name just one. Wooten was a solid SEC LB, and I've only touched one position.

[Mikey 16,550]

10 hours ago, W.E.D said:

In one thread Mick claims we should win 9 or 10 games.

Have you bats in your belfry? I said we should have won 9 or ten games last year. This coming season? We've lost too much with little to replace them. The Vegas 5.5 looks like an accurate estimate.

[W.E.D 11,070]

9 hours ago, Mikey said:

That laughable. All McClain did was lead the nation in tackles one year and be among the leaders another year, to name just one. Wooten was a solid SEC LB, and I've only touched one position.

McClain was an upper mid level SEC player.  Wooten was terrible.  Go look at any of is PFF grades, he was consistently really bad.  

I loved Zakoby, but he's not irreplaceable.  We also get our 5* LB back that was hurt the majority of last year.  That's probably a wash.

[oracle79 3,569]

Last year's team had one guy drafted. This year's team will have more than one drafted. So which team is more talented again?

[e808 3,020]

Last years team had one guy drafted. However, those same people that would have drafted last year are still on the team. Does that make the team more talented. It’s basically the same team minus the person drafted. Then u have the McClain, Wooten  Mondays, Shivers and so forth that are gone. Say what u won’t about Zakoby but the guy was the heart and soul of the defense.

Not even mentioning the portal losses.

Even the talk shows have said Auburn is pretty good with the initial starters it’s after that when it gets murkey. A fairly health season will go along way.

Edited May 31, 2022 by e808

[metafour 4,958]

4 hours ago, oracle79 said:

Last year's team had one guy drafted. This year's team will have more than one drafted. So which team is more talented again?

 

The guys that will get drafted (Tank, Hall, Leota, etc) were all already on last year's team. Sure, you can state that they'll progress and be even better next year, but these aren't totally new players that we just added.

Edited May 31, 2022 by metafour

[WarEagle1983 2,185]

10 hours ago, W.E.D said:

McClain was an upper mid level SEC player.  Wooten was terrible.  Go look at any of is PFF grades, he was consistently really bad.  

I loved Zakoby, but he's not irreplaceable.  We also get our 5* LB back that was hurt the majority of last year.  That's probably a wash.

This group may be more talented when it's all said and done but the previous group had decent experience. I like our starters on both sides but our lack of experience and depth is a major concern for me. Especially if we're not able to score enough. It's been shown more than once that we've wasted a good defense that simply gave out towards the end of the season b/c they had to carry the team too much. 

[Mikey 16,550]

12 hours ago, oracle79 said:

Last year's team had one guy drafted. This year's team will have more than one drafted. So which team is more talented again?

Depends on how many of those that bailed out get drafted. Then you are faced with the undeniable fact that those drafted after this season were also on last year's team. Then you are also faced with the undeniable fact that the number drafted is only one small measure of a team's total talent.

Last year's team was more talented and it's not that close.

Edited June 1, 2022 by Mikey

[W.E.D 11,070]

9 hours ago, Mikey said:

Last year's team was more talented and it's not that close.

QB - Push for starter.  Calzada/Bo are nearly idential stats wise.  Both do different things better.  We have more depth in '22.

OL - Better than last year.  0 draftable starters in 2021.  At least 2 young OL overtaking starting spots & possibly draftable.  The OL is better, but I still don't think it'll be good.

TE - Better than last year.  Everyone is back w/ more experience.  Multiple young TEs with 0 experience now experienced.  Ex Landon King only had 5 catches, he'll probably have 25+

WR - I think we're more talented than last year, but in '21 we had a lot more experience.  Right now I'd give the edge to '21 team.  Of the WRs we lots, none are irreplaceable.  I just don't know if anyone can replace them right now.  We have too may 5'8" and small WRs.  I like the Miami transfers, but not buying into that hype right now.  I doubt a TrFr will be a heavy contributor.  I thought Capers looked smooth in A-Day, but he seems he can never take control of a starting spot.

RB - This is push for even the most pessimistic person, but I'd lean better due to year 2 in the system for Tank + Hunter not being a TrFr anymore.

 

Defense:

DT - Drastically better.  Everyone is back.  NT is better with Jones over Fair.  Harris is the size of a DT now vs a big DE.  Lost no one of importance

DE/Edge - Wooden/Hall/Leota all back.  Leota will be improved.  Z Walker is healthy.  Lost no one, gained experience and size.  M'ba possibly a huge addition, but I'm weary on juco.

LB - Push.  Lose Zakoby, gain a healthy Pappoe.  Wooten wasn't good.  Between  Riley/Asante/Steiner/Joki/Tisdol....we'll be OK at LB

CB - This is clearly the biggest position group that is worse.  We lost a true #1 CB.  DJ James is good & a great addition, but he's still not as good as Roger.

S - I think this is probably next in line after CB.  Smoke is a big loss and I don't think we have a SS to replace them.  Push with Kaufman (who wasn't very good) and push with Zion.  These two could be better than last year, will not be hard, but not guaranteed yet.