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2023 Recruiting Class Prediction....


2023 Recruiting Class Prediction....  

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  1. 1. 2023 Recruiting Class Prediction....

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9 minutes ago, AuburnNTexas said:

One major point I want to make is that class ranking now that the portal is a major component is not always an accurate measure. We finished up around 18th in HS signings but because of the quality of the players we added in Portal our class is better then that ranking based on how important those players were last year based on their actual performance which is even more important then ranking.  The Portal is a two edged sword as we also lost some players. We had some key pickups that actually impacted how the team performed last year.

These are some that got significant PT last year

Fair, Harris Leota, Kaufman, Knighten, Finley 

We lost some players also to Portal as that re-enforces my point class ranking without taking Portal into consideration is not very accurate.  We have to start looking at things differently.  With Portal you have to look both what you gained and what you lost and it is not so much numbers gained or lost as to impact on the field. Some players lost on Portal are processed players some could be key pieces and hurt. Usually players brought in from Portal are immediate needs or depth pieces so have a good chance of being on the field year they arrive or the next year.

 

 

I'm glad you posted this to put things in perspective a little better.  We also have to understand that teams that already inked a top 5/top 10 class AND added top portal players it enhances their ending rankings as well. 

I'd assume USC/Riley adding top QB & WR through the portal helped their end class ranking a ton - then by the same token, uat adding a couple of top portal players boosted their already great class ranking. 

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13 hours ago, Mikey said:

That's a HOOT! On what planet? There were four 4* players in that class. Gus signed three of them. More were committed to AU but left after Gus was fired and Harsin couldn't hold them. The day before Gus was fired, the class ranking was higher than it was after Harsin finished with his February signing day. 

Do you just throw stuff out there and hope nobody will notice that it's all BS?

Wrong Mikey.  Auburn was ranked outside the top 40 when Malzahn was fired.  I looked it up on this site on page 11 of recruiting page in reference to Keith Niebuhr.  Ended up around 19th after Feb 2021 NSD.

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Alright children, relax, I can go back through my 2021 recruiting class thread and pull up how the rankings shifter. 

I believe we were in the low 40s when Harsin came in incredibly late. We finished 20th (ish) depending on the service you look at.

There is a discussion to be had about how many of those kids transferred or had no statistical impact. But that gets into a larger conversation about sign & transfers at every program.

I would give the staff a C+ maybe B- for how they cobbled together the 2021 class but easily a B+ in terms of the portal.

The 2022 class was a B- at best for me with some big misses and not enough Linemen. Our staff also was not doing the things needed to succeed in SEC recruiting and have since pivoted.

2023 is the first true and fair test. There's been plenty of time to build connections, have multiple visits, and evaluate. A top 15 finish is both needed and expected.

 

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22 hours ago, W.E.D said:

You're the one claiming the class was ranked higher.  Downvote me all you want as you back away form your argument

 Where did I claim that non-committed prospects contributed to a team's rankling? Oh wait, I didn't. The ranking was higher due to signed and committed prospects.

22 hours ago, JerryAU said:

Was the class not hovering around the 40's when Gus was fired?  Then Harsin with tremendous help from Mason pulled it up to the 20's.

No, the class ranking was very acceptable right before Gus was fired. After that, some that were committed to AU jumped ship and other schools added numbers and quality at a higher rate than Auburn. Think just a minute: When Gus was fired, three 4* guys had already been signed. 11 of the 19 guys in the class had already been signed. It was still early in the recruiting cycle. Unlike this past year, early signing wasn't that big of a deal in 2020. AU didn't lose signed players after Gus left, others passed us in the rankings by signing more.

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10 hours ago, Zeek said:

I believe we were in the low 40s when Harsin came in incredibly late.

That may be where we were by the time Harsin took over. We were much higher than that in late November. Then other schools started adding commitments while AU did basically nothing for weeks on end.

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So from really deep diving into it this week, I get an opposite vibe than usual this year. Usually it's defense we feel great about, and offense horrible. Sorta feels opposite this year. Glenn, Cobb, Prean, and English seem like really good chances to be our skill players. Friend seems to have positioned himself to where he can whiff on his top targets, and still fall back to Geffrard, Wedin, etc. Defense seems to be a ton of potential (especially DL and EDGE), but a lot more uncertainty and moving parts right now (especially CB)

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22 hours ago, W.E.D said:

You're wrong

In case you hadn't noticed, that's a fairly common occurrence for the person in question.

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7 hours ago, au302 said:

So from really deep diving into it this week, I get an opposite vibe than usual this year. Usually it's defense we feel great about, and offense horrible. Sorta feels opposite this year. Glenn, Cobb, Prean, and English seem like really good chances to be our skill players. Friend seems to have positioned himself to where he can whiff on his top targets, and still fall back to Geffrard, Wedin, etc. Defense seems to be a ton of potential (especially DL and EDGE), but a lot more uncertainty and moving parts right now (especially CB)

From what I have seen from the reports on this board you are correct. We seem to be in good position for skill positions on Offense and unlike in the past while trying to get some top talent in O-Line we have guys who are capable of being SEC O-Line as backups.  I think we look good at LB on defense and at Safety, We have a lot of Iron's in fire for DL but seem to be 2nd or 3rd choice for top ones and I have not heard much about backup options but that does not mean we don't have them. I agree we are not in great position for CB at this time but again we don't always no about others on the board.

That said there it is still 1st half of June a lot can change positively or negatively once we start playing games and as we solidify what we will be doing with NIL. 

Edited by AuburnNTexas
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1 hour ago, Rednilla said:

In case you hadn't noticed, that's a fairly common occurrence for the person in question.

It's remarkable.  Multiple people have shown him he was wrong and he tosses out faceplam reactions and just keeps digging in.

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48 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

It's remarkable.  Multiple people have shown him he was wrong and he tosses out faceplam reactions and just keeps digging in.

You taking an opposite position doesn't mean I'm wrong. In this case what it means is that you made an inaccurate claim.

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21 hours ago, dilligas said:

Wrong Mikey.  Auburn was ranked outside the top 40 when Malzahn was fired.  I looked it up on this site on page 11 of recruiting page in reference to Keith Niebuhr.  Ended up around 19th after Feb 2021 NSD.

I looked for it, twice, on page 11 of the 2021 recruiting thread and couldn't find it. Maybe I could use more detailed instructions? :)  . Are you sure the ranking was for when Gus was fired? Ranking somewhere around Dec. 1st 2020? Because by the Spring of 2021 many other schools had passed us.

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1 hour ago, Mikey said:

ou taking an opposite position doesn't mean I'm wrong.

  

On 6/8/2022 at 11:43 PM, Mikey said:

The day before Gus was fired, the class ranking was higher than it was after Harsin finished with his February signing day. 

This is verifiably wrong.

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4 hours ago, Mikey said:

I looked for it, twice, on page 11 of the 2021 recruiting thread and couldn't find it. Maybe I could use more detailed instructions? :)  . Are you sure the ranking was for when Gus was fired? Ranking somewhere around Dec. 1st 2020? Because by the Spring of 2021 many other schools had passed us.

It’s on page 11 of this recruiting forum, under topic best Case Scenario by Zeek.  It’s a post about halfway down the page from Zeek with an embedded Keith Neibuhr quote or article.  In that Article it gives our current ranking a few days before Gus was fired.

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15 hours ago, Mikey said:

 Where did I claim that non-committed prospects contributed to a team's rankling? Oh wait, I didn't. The ranking was higher due to signed and committed prospects.

No, the class ranking was very acceptable right before Gus was fired. After that, some that were committed to AU jumped ship and other schools added numbers and quality at a higher rate than Auburn. Think just a minute: When Gus was fired, three 4* guys had already been signed. 11 of the 19 guys in the class had already been signed. It was still early in the recruiting cycle. Unlike this past year, early signing wasn't that big of a deal in 2020. AU didn't lose signed players after Gus left, others passed us in the rankings by signing more.

They signed before national early signing day? I didn’t think they could sign before then. I guess I’m just lost on these recruiting rules.

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7 hours ago, W.E.D said:

It's remarkable.  Multiple people have shown him he was wrong and he tosses out faceplam reactions and just keeps digging in.

Not laughing at your comment, which is spot on. Laughing at the fact that he facepalmed it. :laugh:

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JC Hart. Sleeper cornerback outta Loachapoka. Dude apparently balled out at the camp today. Even better, he's 6'2 and blazing fast. Seems like a lot more upside than Nation and Miller. Anxious to see if Zac offers him before he leaves

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19 hours ago, dilligas said:

It’s on page 11 of this recruiting forum, under topic best Case Scenario by Zeek.  It’s a post about halfway down the page from Zeek with an embedded Keith Neibuhr quote or article.  In that Article it gives our current ranking a few days before Gus was fired.

Found it! That's surprising. At one point we were in much better shape than that, but I do see that by Dec. 9th our ranking had tumbled.

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18 hours ago, Hank2020 said:

They signed before national early signing day? I didn’t think they could sign before then. I guess I’m just lost on these recruiting rules.

No, they didn't sign before early signing day. They did sign before Harsin was hired, so there's no question that they were Gus's recruits.

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31 minutes ago, Mikey said:

No, they didn't sign before early signing day. They did sign before Harsin was hired, so there's no question that they were Gus's recruits.

Gotcha, I just got the timing of Harsin’s hire wrong. I thought he was there for early signing day. My bad

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I think how well Harsin and staff need to do depends on wins

5-6 wins better have 5-10 recruiting class

7-8 wins top 15 but with some big gets and major needs met

8+ Safe 

Based off what I’ve heard on several podcasts now it seems most the big name guys with interest in Auburn are waiting to see what Auburn puts on the field before giving serious consideration.  That makes LSU, Mizzou, and Penn State so big.  Getting out to a good start will go a long way even if things start to flame out later in the season.

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