Staff, recruiting, NIL and the portal

[TigerHorn 1,351]

So we've hired two experienced NFL scouts now with a 3rd apparently on the way, guys whose specialty is evaluating potential and talent regardless of stardom at the college level. They should excel at finding under-utilized or under-developed kids in the portal and at the HS level. 

Our NIL efforts have been mixed, and anyone who's realistic and informed enough knows that AU will never have the NIL $ to match Texas, ATM, OU, tOSU, etc, and maybe can't even match uat and thuga in the short run, until their fanatical alums go broke trying to keep up with the truly wealthy alumni bases. AU grads, this one included, have always found greater causes to donate to than creation of a football factory (see Bo's donation to Uvalde as the latest example of many).

Harsin is a guy who's made a living on lower ranked players. 

Is AU building an organization and strategy around diamonds in the rough and 3* players? CTT found some stars that way, especially on D. If we're one of the very few schools keeping players for four years because of this approach, do we find a regular rhythm of senior-laden teams surprising all-star teams of much younger players? (Kind of like what Miami did to us in the NCAA tournament this year) If this is what they're doing, it will either be the greatest strategic plan in CFB or a dismal failure. Discuss.....

Edited July 26, 2022 by TigerHorn
Added news on the 3rd ex-NFL scout to be hired

[Gowebb11 9,308]

19 minutes ago, TigerHorn said:

So we've hired two experienced NFL scouts now with a 3rd apparently on the way, guys whose specialty is evaluating potential and talent regardless of stardom at the college level. They should excel at finding under-utilized or under-developed kids in the portal and at the HS level. 

Our NIL efforts have been mixed, and anyone who's realistic and informed enough knows that AU will never have the NIL $ to match Texas, ATM, OU, tOSU, etc, and maybe can't even match uat and thuga in the short run, until their fanatical alums go broke trying to keep up with the truly wealthy alumni bases. AU grads, this one included, have always found greater causes to donate to than creation of a football factory (see Bo's donation to Uvalde as the latest example of many).

Harsin is a guy who's made a living on lower ranked players. 

Is AU building an organization and strategy around diamonds in the rough and 3* players? CTT found some stars that way, especially on D. If we're one of the very few schools keeping players for four years because of this approach, do we find a regular rhythm of senior-laden teams surprising all-star teams of much younger players? (Kind of like what Miami did to us in the NCAA tournament this year) If this is what they're doing, it will either be the greatest strategic plan in CFB or a dismal failure. Discuss.....

I wish we were a top tier recruiting school and would prefer that since we’re in the SEC. But watching schools like Minnesota, UCF, Wisconsin, and Northwestern thrash us in bowl games is a good reminder that well coached and well developed solid talent, playing smart and disciplined football can be more than competitive vs superior talent. We will know more in a few months if that’s where we’re headed and if it will work at AU. 

[JerryAU 1,653]

20 minutes ago, Gowebb11 said:

I wish we were a top tier recruiting school and would prefer that since we’re in the SEC. But watching schools like Minnesota, UCF, Wisconsin, and Northwestern thrash us in bowl games is a good reminder that well coached and well developed solid talent, playing smart and disciplined football can be more than competitive vs superior talent. We will know more in a few months if that’s where we’re headed and if it will work at AU. 

What's even more painful is watching SEC teams that are well coached, well developed solid talent playing smart disciplined football + superior talent nearly every week.  

Some of the nations best football coaches are in this conference as HC's/Coordinators not to mention a slew of the best talent evaluators and recruiters in the sport.  If you take the field against them with inferior talent it just makes it that much harder to compete.

With that said, Big Cat is this week with a nice amount of 4*'s still left to commit and I feel like Auburn gets some great news over the weekend.  Pile up the 4*'s with a few 3*'s mixed in and put them through Harsin's boot camp of development, we should be able to hold out own long enough for recruits to see what Harsin's building here at which point the 5*'s will take notice. fingers crossed 

 

[Sizzle 3,909]

The teams with the best recruiting wins. There’s no trick to winning. The teams with the best players win, that’s it. Alabama built a dynasty that’s been going on over a decade off of getting the best players.

Diamonds in the roughs are cool stories but I doubt anybody’s gone find a team full of Roger McCreary’s. For every one of those you get 50 future PE teachers

Edited July 26, 2022 by Sizzle

[TigerHorn 1,351]

34 minutes ago, Sizzle said:

The teams with the best recruiting wins. There’s no trick to winning. The teams with the best players win, that’s it. Alabama built a dynasty that’s been going on over a decade off of getting the best players.

Diamonds in the roughs are cool stories but I doubt anybody’s gone find a team full of Roger McCreary’s. For every one of those you get 50 future PE teachers

In terms of consistency and dynasties, you're right, talent rules.

But, AU has been able to pull together solid years and great years with a handful of five stars and a team made up of lesser rated, but determined, talent. We can't match people star for star in the NIL era, time for people to accept that. We simply do not have the wealth and fanaticism in our fanbase to do it. We can do what we've traditionally done, maybe a little better now, and it looks to me like that's what Harsin is trying to do. 

[JBiGGiE 2,488]

This will directly impact transfer portal season as we will have to hit it hard to fill the gaps in 2023's roster.

[autigeremt 6,569]

Think the Beamer years at Va Tech. He was one of the best at it. 

[au302 2,669]

Warning long post ahead. Read at your own peril...

Here is my best guess. This is not from inside info or anything like that, as I'm not plugged in at all. Just my thoughts from snippets I've seen on the boards, pods etc. First let's just get the 3 star myth out the way. Harsin doesn't and isn't purposefully passing on 4 and 5 stars to go after 3 stars. Look at the guys we have committed. One of the highest average ratings in the nation I believe. If anything, he seems to be getting hammered for playing long this cycle with higher rated prospects instead of taking more sure bets.

Now that that's out the way, this is my guess to how we're planning to move forward. We are *apparently* finally getting an organized NIL collective with the launch of On to Victory happening this week, I believe. I've seen some snippets that Harsin and company are "aware of" and maybe even "aligned" with the group behind this new operation. These are apparently "good boosters" that just want to know where to drop the bags. The issue is that their war chest is just not gonna be the size of the A&M's, Texas's of the world. But hey, if this collective truly launches, it's better than what we've had for the past year. Let's see it first since we've been burned on NIL hype before...

Thus, because the war chest won't be as big as others, they are gonna have to choose wisely where to use their bullets imo. I'm sure Harsin and Fabianich will be as involved with that as they can without breaking any rules. For example "drop x amount on this stud EDGE that everyone wants.... we think Zac Etheridge can land that cornerback for free so don't waste any of the chest on him" 

The top NIL dogs are paying for their entire classes (A&M). We are seeing schools like Bama and UGA have more competition than usual from unusual schools like Miami, Texas, etc. They are even losing some guys to these schools. Guys they always get with no problem. This is causing Bama to have to dip down just a little more into our tier of targets than usual (Ryqueze Mcelderry). To fill out the remainder of our class, I think scouting will be key.

This is where the NFL click comes in. Since Bama and co will be taking more tier 2 guys to fill the back end of their classes, thinning out our board, we are gonna have to get more creative for the back end of ours. The NFL guys will attempt to find diamonds in the rough. Guys that maybe haven't been exposed as much. Maybe they're a little raw. Maybe they just started playing football a couple years ago. Maybe they're from the middle of nowhere. I can go on and on. Remember, it's all about how you project in college and beyond, not what you did in HS. One of my biggest complaints under Gus was that we seemed to take too many guys that peaked in HS instead of looking at their long-term potential (Lee Hunter, D. Davis most recently). 

The moral of the story is that yes, we will continue to go for big fish, but we need better depth to our classes. That's where I'm hopeful for these guys. We've had a lot of busts in our classes recently. Maybe they'll have better luck. Let's not forget the portal as well. Again, this is just my personal guess. Likely totally off, lol. Oh, and sorry for the extremely long post, lol. 

[autigeremt 6,569]

3 minutes ago, JBiGGiE said:

This will directly impact transfer portal season as we will have to hit it hard to fill the gaps in 2023's roster.

We were already there especially on the O Line. 

[JBiGGiE 2,488]

5 minutes ago, autigeremt said:

We were already there especially on the O Line. 

For sure. And edge.

Also I think it's worth considering this: How many recruits do we see every year get bumped up a star when they commit to Bama? Is that Bama taking a diamond in the rough? Or is it recruiting services reevaluating their own assessments based on Bama's track record?

I agree we can't build our program on 2 and 3 stars, but it stands to reason that with enough success putting guys in the NFL, we will start getting the benefit of the doubt when we offer high schoolers.

[Sizzle 3,909]

1 hour ago, TigerHorn said:

In terms of consistency and dynasties, you're right, talent rules.

But, AU has been able to pull together solid years and great years with a handful of five stars and a team made up of lesser rated, but determined, talent. We can't match people star for star in the NIL era, time for people to accept that. We simply do not have the wealth and fanaticism in our fanbase to do it. We can do what we've traditionally done, maybe a little better now, and it looks to me like that's what Harsin is trying to do. 

Auburn makes plenty money. Don’t they always finish top 10 almost top 5 in revenue? 

[AUwent 3,747]

On 7/26/2022 at 2:01 PM, TigerHorn said:

AU grads, this one included, have always found greater causes to donate to than creation of a football factory (see Bo's donation to Uvalde as the latest example of many).

Well then what are we doing in the SEC?

Edited July 30, 2022 by AUwent

[Gowebb11 9,308]

Bringing in the NFL guys makes a ton of sense. Go check some random NFL rosters. You’ll see a lot of guys from Bama, UGA, USC, Clemson, etc….But if you look closely, you’ll see a lot of players from the likes of Kansas St, Iowa, and Appalachian St. look deeper and you’ll note guys from Princeton, Penn, and William & Mary. Tennessee-Chattanooga had a first round o lineman drafted this year. Jacksonville State, West Alabama, and Weber are represented. The Bills starting QB is from Juco and Wyoming. His backup is high school 5 star Matt Barkley from USC. NFL guys have a different eye for talent and potential. I’m happy to see we are bringing them onboard. 

[DAG 33,955]

Can’t live off of three star guys but what I think is this is showing that we are going to do our due diligence in scouting the prospects  who we believe are worth that high NIL pay. I am going to laugh my ass off when the Aggies have the highest pay roll in college football with nothing to show for it. 

[LPTiger 5,150]

Many of us have no idea how badly the cards are stacked against Auburn.  This has been true throughout history and continues at an even more passioned pace today.   As one example, take a casual look at the state's leading news source Al.com.   How much coverage did you see of our CWS run?  During that run, how many articles did you see about miscellaneous minute related to Saban?   It is nearly unbearable.     We should continue to try to recruit every 5 star kid in the state of Alabama and Georgia.   How many of those kids that Bama really wanted have we landed?  Is it less than 5 in the past two decades.    History, IMO, says playing that game and relying on it to be the difference maker is a losers' game.    We have to be different.  We have to do different things.   Like telling Vincent Jackson you can play running back here vs. linebacker there.   Telling Cadillac, you will start game 1 at Auburn.   Hiring professional scouts to evaluate talent.  DAG says you "can't live off 3 stars."   That comment, I think, misses a critical point.    You certainly can't live off 3 stars who play like 1 stars, but you can damn sure live off 3 stars who play like 5 stars.  The league is chock full of no stars, aka Cooper Kupp.   Maybe we are trying to become elite at identifying those guys.   

[cbo 7,801]

1 hour ago, DAG said:

Can’t live off of three star guys but what I think is this is showing that we are going to do our due diligence in scouting the prospects  who we believe are worth that high NIL pay. I am going to laugh my ass off when the Aggies have the highest pay roll in college football with nothing to show for it. 

I also have a feeling A&M is going to spend all that money and then blow it on the field. Will be fun to watch. 

[au302 2,669]

32 minutes ago, LPTiger said:

Many of us have no idea how badly the cards are stacked against Auburn.  This has been true throughout history and continues at an even more passioned pace today.   As one example, take a casual look at the state's leading news source Al.com.   How much coverage did you see of our CWS run?  During that run, how many articles did you see about miscellaneous minute related to Saban?   It is nearly unbearable.     We should continue to try to recruit every 5 star kid in the state of Alabama and Georgia.   How many of those kids that Bama really wanted have we landed?  Is it less than 5 in the past two decades.    History, IMO, says playing that game and relying on it to be the difference maker is a losers' game.    We have to be different.  We have to do different things.   Like telling Vincent Jackson you can play running back here vs. linebacker there.   Telling Cadillac, you will start game 1 at Auburn.   Hiring professional scouts to evaluate talent.  DAG says you "can't live off 3 stars."   That comment, I think, misses a critical point.    You certainly can't live off 3 stars who play like 1 stars, but you can damn sure live off 3 stars who play like 5 stars.  The league is chock full of no stars, aka Cooper Kupp.   Maybe we are trying to become elite at identifying those guys.   

Yep. Scouting just seems to be more nuanced than we realize. I haven't really gotten into it until the past couple of years, but it fascinates me. For example, some of the highest rated guys we've gotten lately seemed to have the lowest long term ceilings. Guys like Nix, Pappoe, D. Davis, and Lee Hunter were all class headliners here, but not guys that NFL scouts would seem to drool over solely due to measurables. I'm not even getting into their play or my personal opinions of them.

But then some of the lower rated 3 star guys we've gotten, like McCreary, Malik Willis, and Landen King, seem to have the most NFL upside we've recruited. I'm curious on how these sites do their evals. Are they mostly factoring HS accomplishments or long-term potential? And to be clear obviously there are a ton of 5 stars that become NFL stars, so I'm not calling for a 3 star approach. My point is more so that it doesnt seem nearly as black and white as some think.

[AUwent 3,747]

On 7/26/2022 at 7:50 PM, cbo said:

I also have a feeling A&M is going to spend all that money and then blow it on the field. Will be fun to watch. 

That would be INSAAAAAAAAANELY satisfying.

Look, I have no illusion that we're going to perennially finish with top five recruiting classes. But we should constantly be top 15, sometimes top 10.

Edited July 29, 2022 by AUwent

[GunsmithAU 383]

7 hours ago, TigerHorn said:

Harsin is a guy who's made a living on lower ranked players. 

Dude had the best recruiting in his conference and couldn't win it on a steady basis. 

8 hours ago, TigerHorn said:

Is AU building an organization and strategy around diamonds in the rough and 3* players?

We don't really have any diamonds in the rough now. Maybe some rubies or emeralds, but definitely no diamonds. 

 

 

This idea if coaching up 3* to beat 4 and 5 star laden teams is hogwash. They are getting just as much coaching as our 3*. 

 

The 3* who has the ceiling of NFL but currently plays at G5 or lower level isn't common and cannot be the basis for team building.

 

It'll be rare that a team of players with better average recruit who also have 3-4 years in a system will lose to worse players who have 4-5 years in a system. 

[e808 3,020]

2 hours ago, LPTiger said:

Many of us have no idea how badly the cards are stacked against Auburn.  This has been true throughout history and continues at an even more passioned pace today.   As one example, take a casual look at the state's leading news source Al.com.   How much coverage did you see of our CWS run?  During that run, how many articles did you see about miscellaneous minute related to Saban?   It is nearly unbearable.     We should continue to try to recruit every 5 star kid in the state of Alabama and Georgia.   How many of those kids that Bama really wanted have we landed?  Is it less than 5 in the past two decades.    History, IMO, says playing that game and relying on it to be the difference maker is a losers' game.    We have to be different.  We have to do different things.   Like telling Vincent Jackson you can play running back here vs. linebacker there.   Telling Cadillac, you will start game 1 at Auburn.   Hiring professional scouts to evaluate talent.  DAG says you "can't live off 3 stars."   That comment, I think, misses a critical point.    You certainly can't live off 3 stars who play like 1 stars, but you can damn sure live off 3 stars who play like 5 stars.  The league is chock full of no stars, aka Cooper Kupp.   Maybe we are trying to become elite at identifying those guys.   

Respectfully, players like Cooper Kupp are rare and also have a chance to set themselves apart in college. Maybe some 3 stars are evaluated wrong but more often than not it’s correct. Auburn has had some success with 3 stars but I bet them playing alongside 4 and 5stars made them step their game up (remember iron sharpens iron).

They can be used to help supplement your team and build depth. Like someone mention above those 4 and 5 stars are getting coached up to. In the SEC u need those top players to compete. Otherwise the top schools gonna beat u solely because they are more talented. Actually u could even throw in the middle of the pack teams as well. War Eagle

[Tiger 8,817]

Somebody somewhere posted that the last X number of championships or CFP playoff participants were overwhelmingly stocked with top tier talent based on recruiting rankings and not filled with "over achievers" or made up of a majority of guys who outperformed their recruiting ranking. If championships is our goal, and at AU it should be, we need to recruit and land several big fish to be consistently competing for championships.

Signing perceived underrated guys can fill a hole here or there but ultimately we need big dogs because our entire competition is full of big dogs. There aren't enough underrated guys that can perform at the level of top tier guys to carry a team to a championship barring some mutant like Cam Newton falling into our laps. But having a one man show at a key position is not a recipe for sustained success 

[cbo 7,801]

Recruiting is the most important element. This has been proven so many times, it's not even worth discussing anymore. 

But coaching is still part of it. Maybe 25%? People are now saying Kirby Smart is not a good X's and O's coach, just like they used to say about Saban. But he's obviously doing something right, outside of recruiting. Even if it is only instilling team discipline and hiring the right coordinators. 

The one equalizer is an elite QB. This is why I so desperately hoped we could land Caleb Williams. An elite QB can cover up a lot of deficiencies and elevate a good team to a great team. 

[slyinsocal 831]

28 minutes ago, GunsmithAU said:

Dude had the best recruiting in his conference and couldn't win it on a steady basis. 

In 7 years, 5 1st places finishes and 2 2nd place finishes. That's not steady winning? Judge him on his performance at Auburn, but let's be reasonable.

[AU-24 3,063]

14 hours ago, TigerHorn said:

So we've hired two experienced NFL scouts now with a 3rd apparently on the way, guys whose specialty is evaluating potential and talent regardless of stardom at the college level. They should excel at finding under-utilized or under-developed kids in the portal and at the HS level. 

Our NIL efforts have been mixed, and anyone who's realistic and informed enough knows that AU will never have the NIL $ to match Texas, ATM, OU, tOSU, etc, and maybe can't even match uat and thuga in the short run, until their fanatical alums go broke trying to keep up with the truly wealthy alumni bases. AU grads, this one included, have always found greater causes to donate to than creation of a football factory (see Bo's donation to Uvalde as the latest example of many).

Harsin is a guy who's made a living on lower ranked players. 

Is AU building an organization and strategy around diamonds in the rough and 3* players? CTT found some stars that way, especially on D. If we're one of the very few schools keeping players for four years because of this approach, do we find a regular rhythm of senior-laden teams surprising all-star teams of much younger players? (Kind of like what Miami did to us in the NCAA tournament this year) If this is what they're doing, it will either be the greatest strategic plan in CFB or a dismal failure. Discuss.....

Plenty, plenty, plenty of money at Auburn! More than the vast majority of schools! We got off to a very slow, disorganized NIL start. Not surprised… Why? We need key leaders, in key positions. 
 

Look at our campus, our athletic facilities, the unbelievable, record-breaking fundraising we do as a university system. Money isn’t the problem, leadership is!

Hopefully with the new school president, new athletic Director in January and possibly new head football coach after this season or next, the leadership will be there!

[NWALA Tiger 3,534]

2 hours ago, AU-24 said:

Plenty, plenty, plenty of money at Auburn! More than the vast majority of schools! We got off to a very slow, disorganized NIL start. Not surprised… Why? We need key leaders, in key positions. 
 

Look at our campus, our athletic facilities, the unbelievable, record-breaking fundraising we do as a university system. Money isn’t the problem, leadership is!

Hopefully with the new school president, new athletic Director in January and possibly new head football coach after this season or next, the leadership will be there!

Not sure all that will ever happen... Even if Greene and Harsin are gone, history tells us AU will never be completely aligned. Not with Tubbs, Gustav, Chiz, Bowden. Only exception is Dye...Think about it, the big $ men at AU supposedly wanted Kevin Steele... This is Auburn, always been dysfunctional,  prob always will be.