Our achilles heel in 2022 (and why it could be better in 2023)

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

The other night I was reading a few articles about our program, including a few about how the team could improve in certain areas this year. All the usual topics were covered, replacing Jabari and Kessler, improving shooting %, and not being able to get good shots late in games/halves/end of clocks. All of that is good and true, etc, but something was stirred in my mind and I went back and looked over the stats from the games we lost last season.   Fortunately the sample size was only 6 games and the issue in those games seemed to simply be we shot the ball poorly. But we won other games where we shot the ball poorly, from 2 and/or 3, so that doesn't really explain those losses. Part of the problem, sure, but not the cause in my mind. So I looked at turnovers/assists/steals, and again we didn't perform well in those losses, but no obvious theme was present across all of the losses. 

Then I thought about games we won ugly, or struggled to win and looked at those stats and I noticed something. We had three players averaging double digit shot attempts for the season. Jabari 13, Wen 11, and KD 10 (Kessler had 7, then Flan, Caimbridge, Williams, Zep all with 5 attempts per gm). That seemed off to me so I looked at Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky in our league and Duke, Gonzaga, and Arizona nationally to compare. NONE of them had three players averaging double digit shot attempts and THREE of them had only one player with double digits shots. Of our three averaging double digit shots, two were shooting sub 40% from the floor for the season. Of the other teams I looked at that had multiple double digit shooters NONE of them had two shooters sub 40% from the floor for the season. Now, I know this isn't a statistical analysis of the entirety of d1 ball, but I think it does help me identify our trend in games we struggled last year. 

I had ended the season with the idea that the guards just weren't good enough for us to go deep in March. But now, I think it was FIT. The pieces we had just didn't quite fit together. In a way, the same reason Wiley never reached the ceiling he was capable of. Could the guards have been better, sure. I don't mean chemistry or attitude or anything like that. I mean the games/tallents of our guys just didn't quite work well enough together. That was something I talked about last season and previous seasons, CBP having to make decisions on rotations and pecking order etc. I don't think he made any wrong decisions per se, I just think he didn't have the options he really wanted. At the guard position for instance, who else could he have played? How could he have changed the rotations? And in the front court, what else could you do beside play Jabari and Kessler? Nobody questions that. Our talent level was high enough to win a lot of games, but the fit wasn't tight enough for a deep run in the tourney. I think that's all there was to it. 

So looking to the 2023 season there is reason to believe this issue could be better. First, our 4 man simply won't demand the ball the way Jabari did and his shot attempts will be spread out over several players. Second, Broome has a better offensive game with his back to the basket than any AU player in recent years, which should help in many ways from late clock looks, to more assists from the post, to improved shooting from three for some guys. Third, Westry will impact the minutes of KD and therefore his shot attempts will be spread around. This lineup looks more like what CBP has had to work with in some of his best seasons, with a few guys who have NBA tallent levels.

While the loss of Kessler and Jabari brings our talent level down overall, I can't help but feel like the piece may fit better this season. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Additionally, on Westry, he has more versatility than any other player on last year's team. I personally think he could legit start at 1-3 for us, so CBP will be able to put him at any of those spots to maximize the abilities of our other players. Hopefully that means we get to see a better version of Wen/Zep/KD. I think Westry, once healthy, will spend most of his time at the 2 spot but time will tell. 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,652]

CBP definitely showed his hand that he wanted more guys that could play make off of their scoring ability in going for Tyty and Alexander. Tyty is more of a PG and the latter is closer to a scorer, but they both got others involved through their scoring pressure. The biggest problem from our 2 guard spot last season was:

A. A dearth of scoring consistency down the stretch

B. The 2 guard options very rarely were interested in getting others involved when they were on (KD). 

And what I'm asking for isn't commonly found in the average CBB guard - there's not many guys who can score at national contending level AND set up others off of that ability. Unfortunately, virtually everyone we considered as a contender had at least one and at times, it felt like we had none of those options, even counting Wendell. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

10 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

CBP definitely showed his hand that he wanted more guys that could play make off of their scoring ability in going for Tyty and Alexander. Tyty is more of a PG and the latter is closer to a scorer, but they both got others involved through their scoring pressure. The biggest problem from our 2 guard spot last season was:

A. A dearth of scoring consistency down the stretch

B. The 2 guard options very rarely were interested in getting others involved when they were on (KD). 

And what I'm asking for isn't commonly found in the average CBB guard - there's not many guys who can score at national contending level AND set up others off of that ability. Unfortunately, virtually everyone we considered as a contender had at least one and at times, it felt like we had none of those options, even counting Wendell. 

I mean we didn't have a true 2 on the roster, and we still don't. Every guard we have is a combo. Zep is actually the closest thing to a 2 we have, unless KD changes who he is all together. 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,652]

58 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

I mean we didn't have a true 2 on the roster, and we still don't. Every guard we have is a combo. Zep is actually the closest thing to a 2 we have, unless KD changes who he is all together. 

The 2 is just a label, that wasn’t really the big aspect of my post. The main premise is that those guys that played that position had certain aspects that did not contribute to raising the team’s performance as a whole 

[gravejd 3,270]

I'm not sure how we don't have the same achilles heel this season as the last one. While our front court is changing a lot our back court is not. We add Westry and Tre and everything else stays the same. And it was not the front court that was the problem. Maybe shots will be spread out more but when those shots were coming from Jabari anyone else should be considered a down grade. Though i'll give you Broome will be an upgrade on offense over Kessler who was basically just a lob/dunk threat. 

I think some combo of 3 things has to happen for this team to be better than last season or get further in the tourny. 1. We have to have great play from Westry on the offensive end. 2. We have to get much better scoring out of the Flan and Moore combo. 3. We have to get some significant minutes from Tre that allows us to play Zep more at the 2 spot. And i think at least 2 of those need to happen. I don't think its realistic to expect better play from the front court. Though i think we can get close to equal play with more bodies. And i don't think KD or Greene have the game to lift the team like Harper and Brown did (very happy for them to prove me wrong). 

We will be deeper this season and most of our guards have now played together for a season. So i think we could have better defense on the outside compared to last year. Maybe that allows us to press more but pressing is hard these days with all the contact fouls. You can get in foul trouble quick and teams can make a living hitting free throws. So while we could see some better defense with our numbers Its going to be hard to be a lot better than last season in that area. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

3 hours ago, gravejd said:

I'm not sure how we don't have the same achilles heel this season as the last one. While our front court is changing a lot our back court is not. We add Westry and Tre and everything else stays the same. And it was not the front court that was the problem. Maybe shots will be spread out more but when those shots were coming from Jabari anyone else should be considered a down grade. Though i'll give you Broome will be an upgrade on offense over Kessler who was basically just a lob/dunk threat. 

I think some combo of 3 things has to happen for this team to be better than last season or get further in the tourny. 1. We have to have great play from Westry on the offensive end. 2. We have to get much better scoring out of the Flan and Moore combo. 3. We have to get some significant minutes from Tre that allows us to play Zep more at the 2 spot. And i think at least 2 of those need to happen. I don't think its realistic to expect better play from the front court. Though i think we can get close to equal play with more bodies. And i don't think KD or Greene have the game to lift the team like Harper and Brown did (very happy for them to prove me wrong). 

We will be deeper this season and most of our guards have now played together for a season. So i think we could have better defense on the outside compared to last year. Maybe that allows us to press more but pressing is hard these days with all the contact fouls. You can get in foul trouble quick and teams can make a living hitting free throws. So while we could see some better defense with our numbers Its going to be hard to be a lot better than last season in that area. 

First, the fact we add a player of Westry's caliber means the backcourt doesn't stay the same. I think it will prove to be a significant addition. Second, while Jabari shot a very good 3pt %, his 2pt % wasn't very good because he took mostly jumpers. Williams had a much better 2pt % as did other posts/wings. Jabari was fantastic don't get me wrong here, I'm just saying that his game combined with Kessler left us with no front court option to score from the post. So everything was based on high pnr and above the elbow or extended block action. That allowed Kessler's defender to sag way off and clog the lanes among other issues it presented for our guards/wings. 

The fit will be better this season. Tallent level is down, but I think we will see the fit/flow be better. 

[gravejd 3,270]

42 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

First, the fact we add a player of Westry's caliber means the backcourt doesn't stay the same. I think it will prove to be a significant addition. Second, while Jabari shot a very good 3pt %, his 2pt % wasn't very good because he took mostly jumpers. Williams had a much better 2pt % as did other posts/wings. Jabari was fantastic don't get me wrong here, I'm just saying that his game combined with Kessler left us with no front court option to score from the post. So everything was based on high pnr and above the elbow or extended block action. That allowed Kessler's defender to sag way off and clog the lanes among other issues it presented for our guards/wings. 

The fit will be better this season. Tallent level is down, but I think we will see the fit/flow be better. 

I think you are putting a lot of hope on a Freshmen to really elevate the overall guard play. Maybe Westry is that good but they also said he is still a few weeks away from playing so he is not going to have a lot of time to get up to speed before we enter SEC play. Not saying he cannot do it just that expecting it may be asking a lot. 

I do agree that the offense got stagnant last year cause we really had 3 main weapons and that was Greene, Kessler, and Jabari. Not sure i would call KD a weapon on offense even though he shot a lot. Teams figured out how to stop the Greene/Kessler combo by sagging in the paint so by the end of the season we relied way to much on Jabari having a great game. And that taking away that super star go to player and not having the Kessler crutch could lead to a better overall offensive team. 

I'm ready to see what Jaylin can do in a more prominent role. I've always been a bit down on him compared to others i think. He looks slow to me....just is his overall movements more than foot speed. But some guys can thrive playing like that. Very interested to see how he does. We also gotta hope our guards emphasize getting the ball inside and that is not something we have been known for in Pearls tenure. 

Hell interested to see how the whole team does. Ready to get this basketball season rolling!!!

[AuburnNTexas 7,134]

I watched Westry against Israel especially against their national team that had a couple of NBA players. He was better than any 2 we had on the floor last year. The injury and recovery will slow him down but as he gets up to speed he will elevate the whole team.  One key is Flanigan if he is really as improved as Pearl has said he is we will also be better at the 3 then we were last year. I think we will be a better overall team then last year even though we lost Smith and Kessler I think the 4 players playing 4 and 5 will be as good if not better because of a legitimate inside game even though none of them is as good as Jabari. I am also hearing Pearl say great things about Moore.   

I believe the SEC as a whole will be better this year then last year so it will be hard for us to win the SEC but I think we will have the type team that goes further in the big dance