Zeek's Case for Lane Kiffin

[keywest 138]

7 hours ago, Zeek said:

The more I think about this hire and the potential candidates mentioned, it becomes clear to me that the best choice for Auburn and our immediate future is Lane Kiffin. Does he have his flaws and baggage? For sure and most coaches do; it's a matter of how well they perform on the field and if those issues impede their success. Kiffin has a lot of support and is believed to be the number one option by many of the BOT and Cohen as well. It's a simple matter of cost and doing our due diligence to evaluate other candidates thoroughly.

Let's take a look at Lane Kiffin's football career:

• 1994-96 Quarterback at Fresno State
• 1997-98 Assistant at Fresno State
• 1999 GA at Colorado State
• 2000 DQC at Jacksonville Jaguars
• 2001 TE Coach at USC
• 2002-03 WR Coach at USC
• 2004 Passing Game Coordinator & WR Coach at USC
• 2005-06 OC/WR Coach at USC
• 2007-08 HC of the Oakland Raiders
• 2009 HC at Tennessee (7-6)
• 2010-13 HC at USC (28-15)
• 2014-16 OC/QB Coach at Alabama
• 2017-2019 HC at Florida Atlantic (27-13)
• 2020-present HC at Ole Miss (23-9)

We see a journey of a coaching career for sure but Auburn has never had a coach leave for a better job. It just doesn't happen and I don't believe Lane would leave Auburn for any other position. The money will be too good and the resources are just as good as anywhere else when we're winning. What Lane has managed at bout FAU and OM is impressive for two schools that were really struggling before he took them over.

Regarding recruiting, which might be the most important factor, Kiffin has been around the game long enough to know the process and he has seen it done at the highest levels first hand in the early 2000s at USC and later at Alabama. His work in the portal has made Ole Miss a bubble playoff team and a threat to win the division all while having a mediocre quarterback in Jaxon Dart. What's better? He has proven this year he can have a run-first offense even with two starting freshmen at both tackle spots. Speaking of running, Quinshon Judkins is someone that Harsin believed we didn't have room for... as a true freshman Judkins currently has 1k+ yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. He is a player I suspect might follow Kiffin were Auburn to land him; it would also be my hope that those young Offensive Tackles would follow as well.

Those that have read my thread about the current state of the roster know just how important this recruiting class and portal cycle will be for the future of the program. We undersigned last year and with the new portal rules we could legitimately add almost 40 new players to the roster before next season. Auburn could look like a totally new program in just one offseason.

It is my firm belief that the next hire has to be a name that every recruit in the southeast knows without having to look them up on Google. We can't hire another Idaho somebody that looks promising but no one actually knows. Instead lets pony up the cash and take the man who has historic cellar dweller Ole Miss (8-1) in the SEC West, drives Saban absolutely nuts, and has proven he can run an effective offense literally everywhere he has been. Pair him with a DC like Muschamp (if at all possible) or T-Will (who has been crushing it at UCF) and let's fly.

Lane Kiffin could be for Auburn what Lincoln Riley is for USC.

Lane Kiffin's salary in 2022 is 7.25M with an 100K raise each year through 2025, Mississippi doesn't allow state employees contracts to exceed 4 years. His buyout is most likely in the 15M - 21.5Mish range. I really don't see Auburn paying a 15M buyout to Harsin, 15M- 21.5M for Kiffin's buyout and give Kiffin a 10M per year long term contract (Auburn would be out over 40M before he ever coaches a game! 

At this point, Kiffin hasn't remotely shown a willingness or desire to build a National Championship caliber type defense or willingness to spend the time to recruit a large number of elite HS talent. He has proven to be a great offensive mind but I think he will always be an 8 - 10 win coach regardless of what school he's coaching.

Sanders would be a recruiting juggernaut at a traditional top 15 school and assemble/attract one of the top 5 coaching staffs or better in CFB with their budget, he's extremely competitive and would be a PR machine. the staff he assembled a JSU is much better than Harsin's and better than most P5's with their limited budget.

Edited November 2, 2022 by keywest

[VegasEagle 202]

 

[keywest 138]

2 minutes ago, AU-24 said:

He is probably correct, but remember he also said he had inside information that Harsin would finish the season.

bammer's first call will be to Dabo and he would be a fool to leave a guaranteed for life job at Clemson

[NWALA Tiger 3,535]

Just wait till it comes out that so and so is trending or leading or the presumed favorite... It will really get wild up in here

[VegasEagle 202]

Although Kiffin said he’s not interested in the job, he did mention Sanders as a potential fit for the Tigers.

“I think he’d [Deion Sanders] do great,” Kiffin said. “I think that’s a great name, and I think they should hire him. Great recruiter, great name. … Now you have the portal. You can change a roster faster than you ever could before, and you can lose a roster faster than ever before. The ability to hire Deion and have that name right away, you can get portal players to come play for him.”

 

[fasttimes 356]

8 hours ago, kennypowers said:

Hire Kiffin, and we're looking for a new HC in 3 years.

Perhaps, but the roster will be stocked

[NWALA Tiger 3,535]

1 hour ago, keywest said:

Lane Kiffin's salary in 2022 is 7.25M with an 100K raise each year through 2025, Mississippi doesn't allow state employees contracts to exceed 4 years. His buyout is most likely in the 15M - 21.5Mish range. I really don't see Auburn paying a 15M buyout to Harsin, 15M- 21.5M for Kiffin's buyout and give Kiffin a 10M per year long term contract (Auburn would be out over 40M before he ever coaches a game! 

At this point, Kiffin hasn't remotely shown a willingness or desire to build a National Championship caliber type defense or willingness to spend the time to recruit a large number of elite HS talent. He has proven to be a great offensive mind but I think he will always be an 8 - 10 win coach regardless of what school he's coaching.

Sanders would be a recruiting juggernaut at a traditional top 15 school and assemble/attract one of the top 5 coaching staffs or better in CFB with their budget, he's extremely competitive and would be a PR machine. the staff he assembled a JSU is much better than Harsin's and better than most P5's with their limited budget.

I wondered about the money issue with Kiffen as well.

[Mike4AU 1,739]

1 hour ago, keywest said:

Lane Kiffin's salary in 2022 is 7.25M with an 100K raise each year through 2025, Mississippi doesn't allow state employees contracts to exceed 4 years. His buyout is most likely in the 15M - 21.5Mish range. I really don't see Auburn paying a 15M buyout to Harsin, 15M- 21.5M for Kiffin's buyout and give Kiffin a 10M per year long term contract (Auburn would be out over 40M before he ever coaches a game! 

At this point, Kiffin hasn't remotely shown a willingness or desire to build a National Championship caliber type defense or willingness to spend the time to recruit a large number of elite HS talent. He has proven to be a great offensive mind but I think he will always be an 8 - 10 win coach regardless of what school he's coaching.

Sanders would be a recruiting juggernaut at a traditional top 15 school and assemble/attract one of the top 5 coaching staffs or better in CFB with their budget, he's extremely competitive and would be a PR machine. the staff he assembled a JSU is much better than Harsin's and better than most P5's with their limited budget.

I’m curious how you arrived at your estimate of Kiffin’s buyout if he leaves OM. 

[keywest 138]

2 minutes ago, Mike4AU said:

I’m curious how you arrived at your estimate of Kiffin’s buyout if he leaves OM. 

I couldn't find any definitive information on his buyout, just a pure guess from expected salary:

2023 = $7.35M

2024 = $7.45M

2025 = $7.55M

[auburnatl1 4,892]

That is some cash. Chances are Kiffin will always be available no matter the school if the price is right (unless it’s uat), My instincts are this will be out only shot at Sanders, and with no buyout

[keywest 138]

1 hour ago, fasttimes said:

Perhaps, but the roster will be stocked

The roster "might" be stocked with limited eligibility portal transfers but severely lacking in quantity of Fresh/Soph 

Edited November 2, 2022 by keywest

[Mike4AU 1,739]

It appears to me that you may be estimating what OM would owe HIM if he is fired. His buyout is what he would owe the school if he leaves for another job. I suspect his buyout may be in the $8 mil range. 
 

Sorry, @keywest, I meant to quote you. 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Mike4AU

[TuscaloosaTiger 281]

6 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

what is kiffs buyout? fourteen million is what i heard unofficially. will this matter? with the millions given to gus and to harsin would we realistic pile fourteen mil more in the IOU department? i have no idea is why i am asking.

I've seen Kiffin's buyout reported in multiple places as $20 million if he leaves for a SEC West school and $15 million if he moves to a SEC East school. Don't know the source, but that information has appeared on several sites and posts.

[metafour 4,968]

9 minutes ago, keywest said:

I couldn't find any definitive information on his buyout, just a pure guess from expected salary:

2023 = $7.35M

2024 = $7.45M

2025 = $7.55M

 

I would bet a large amount of money that Kiffin's buyout is surprisingly low, that's why it's kept hidden and why they dance around it every time it's brought up.

Why? It's simple: 

Ole Miss' state law about max 4-year contracts is an extreme hinderance to Ole Miss' ability to negotiate. A coach of Lane Kiffin's magnitude, with Sexton acting as his agent, is not going to get boned twice. That means that he will not take a 4 year contract (when he could get 7-8+ years at any other big name school) while also agreeing to a buyout that is structured as if his contract runs 7-8 years. He is already doing them a solid by accepting a 4 year deal, he's not also going to say "$20+ mill if I want to leave? Ok!".

He also has clear intentions of leaving for a bigger job, so there's no way that Sexton has negotiated a deal that will hurt his ability to do that. He has all the power in this relationship, Ole Miss has very little.

Again, his name comes up for every big job opening. IF his buyout was actually huge, you would see Ole Miss publicizing that as a deterrent. Instead it's kept silent and they make little comments like "his buyout? oh it's sizable!". It's a bluff. If his buyout was enough to prevent another school from coming after him, you'd know exactly how much it is.

[Mike4AU 1,739]

27 minutes ago, metafour said:

 

I would bet a large amount of money that Kiffin's buyout is surprisingly low, that's why it's kept hidden and why they dance around it every time it's brought up.

Why? It's simple: 

Ole Miss' state law about max 4-year contracts is an extreme hinderance to Ole Miss' ability to negotiate. A coach of Lane Kiffin's magnitude, with Sexton acting as his agent, is not going to get boned twice. That means that he will not take a 4 year contract (when he could get 7-8+ years at any other big name school) while also agreeing to a buyout that is structured as if his contract runs 7-8 years. He is already doing them a solid by accepting a 4 year deal, he's not also going to say "$20+ mill if I want to leave? Ok!".

He also has clear intentions of leaving for a bigger job, so there's no way that Sexton has negotiated a deal that will hurt his ability to do that. He has all the power in this relationship, Ole Miss has very little.

Again, his name comes up for every big job opening. IF his buyout was actually huge, you would see Ole Miss publicizing that as a deterrent. Instead it's kept silent and they make little comments like "his buyout? oh it's sizable!". It's a bluff. If his buyout was enough to prevent another school from coming after him, you'd know exactly how much it is.

I have made a scorched earth search to try to find out what his buyout is, without success.  All I get is their AD saying it’s healthy, it’s sizeable, etc. Meta, I think you are exactly right. Upon reflection, I think my estimate of the $8 mil range is high. 

[gr82b4au 5,568]

Well all I know is that none of my Alabama “Friends” Want us to hire him because they think that they will get him When saban retires. 
I think he is one of the best coaches that we could hire at the moment. He is definitely a splash hire. If we get either him or Deion, it will be a game changer. 

[WarEagleT 122]

13 hours ago, kennypowers said:

Hire Kiffin, and we're looking for a new HC in 3 years.

Saban will retired from Bammer within 5 yrs, and Kiffin would leave us for them in a heartbeat, due to his prior time there and their sustained success.

[WarEagleT 122]

12 hours ago, Zeek said:

People don't leave Auburn by choice.

Kiffin would, for Bammer

 

[GreenTiger 1,005]

12 hours ago, AU-24 said:

He is probably correct, but remember he also said he had inside information that Harsin would finish the season.

Yeah. Taking everything with a grain of salt. 
 

With all the “inside information “ that never materializes at Auburn I’m beginning to wonder if there is even a inside at the school 😂

[aucat 69]

20 hours ago, kennypowers said:

Hire Kiffin, and we're looking for a new HC in 3 years.

spend another ￥20mil？

[JBiGGiE 2,488]

With the new TV deal netting us a cool $100M cut, the question isn't can we afford Lane? But should we be spending that kind of money on Lane? Even in this new era of hyperinflated contracts I don't think Lane is worth $10M per year. You don't pay Saban level money for just a shiny new toy.

[Viper 3,132]

16 hours ago, VegasEagle said:

 

“I think he’d [Deion Sanders] do great,” Kiffin said. “I think that’s a great name, and I think they should hire him. Great recruiter, great name. … Now you have the portal. You can change a roster faster than you ever could before, and you can lose a roster faster than ever before. The ability to hire Deion and have that name right away, you can get portal players to come play for him.”

[Zeek 16,649]

10 hours ago, WarEagleT said:

Kiffin would, for Bammer

 

Nope.

[Viper 3,132]

10 hours ago, WarEagleT said:

Saban will retired from Bammer within 5 yrs, and Kiffin would leave us for them in a heartbeat, due to his prior time there and their sustained success.

Yet another very realistic reason to avoid Kiffin.

There are very few HCs that would leave a program for...not just A rival...THE arch rival.

Kiffin would absolutely do this over broken glass.

[TitanTiger 20,472]

10 hours ago, WarEagleT said:

Kiffin would, for Bammer

No he wouldn't.  Good Lord, man.