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Does Auburn Have A Chance To Beat Bama? If so, How Does It Happen?


BHDAU1
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Count me in as someone who honestly thinks that Auburn has a better than normal chance of beating Alabama.  If I were laying odds on it I would say 45/55 that they can win, still most definitely an underdog but not as much as most pundits think they are.  The Auburn team is highly motivated and much more confident than they were just a few weeks ago.  I don't think that any of the starters think they have no chance, also a huge 180 from what it looked like before the Miss St game.  With that said, Auburn's entire hopes ride on the offensive line and winning the time of possession battle by a significant margin IMO. If the AU offensive line can consistently generate even just a little push on Bama's D-line for the full 4 quarters we will have a chance.  They don't need to knock them backward, just generate at-worst a stalemate north and south, but win the directional push east to west consistently. Make a little hole and let the pulling guard/tackle, the fullback, or the tight end clean-up the Bama LB/DE/DB filling the gap and the 1-2 punch of Tank and Jarquez should be able to keep the sticks moving and keep the ball out the hands of Bama's offense.  We will probably need between 28 and 31 points to win along with a time of possession 10 to 20 minutes higher than Bama's.  If the AU offense can put together a bunch of slow, grinding drives of 7 to 15 plays that eat up the clock, the pressure to score points is reduced and the Auburn defense stays much fresher.  I'm talking drives like we used to see under Tuberville, when there were times that Auburn had the ball for 11 to 12 mins out of the 15 minutes total, to times where Auburn would have the ball literally an entire quarter!  Unless Bama gets up more than 1 score on Auburn early, Robby needs to wait to the last few seconds of the play clock to snap it each and every play.  We don't have the deep rotation that Alabama has on defense, and the drop from 1st to 2nd string guys at AU is much greater.  Keeping the 1st string guys from getting worn-out and badly winded is vital.  Two more things Auburn will likely have to do to have any chance of winning the game are limit turnovers to 1 or less, and our QB will need to hit 60% or better of what few passes he is asked to throw.  I see Coach Caddy running a few easy-to-complete screens and wheel passes to the RB or Slot WR to try, a few slightly more challenging 7 to 15 yard passes to the TE over the middle or to one of the WRs on the edges, and maybe one or two much more difficult deep balls if both Robby is doing well AND Bama just completely sells out and stacks everyone in the box to stop the run.  If Robby can't complete 60% or better of these and eliminate the missed passes to wide-open guys that are easy TD's (that we have seen at least once a game for the last 3 games), than Auburn's chance to win drops dramatically.  That's my .02 cents, I would really like to hear what other people on this board think our chances are.  

Edited by BHDAU1
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LOL, Yeah I figured I would get some of that.  Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I just have a feeling that everything is lining up in a certain way for these guys to do something really special for themselves, the coaches, and Auburn University.  Maybe Coach Caddy can get them to harness all the frustration, anger, negativity, and disappointment that they have experienced these last two years and use as fuel to play the best game they have played all year and do something that hasn't been done in 12 years.   

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We have to bring pressure from different places. Our front 4 just can't get to the QB consistantly., and if we don't bring blitzes from different places then Bryce will have a field day with his creativity.. Got to put him on his pooper.

Robby has 1 week to learn how to complete routine passes by putting some touch on his passes.. Uphill climb I'm afraid..

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3 hours ago, ArgoEagle said:

We have to bring pressure from different places. Our front 4 just can't get to the QB consistantly., and if we don't bring blitzes from different places then Bryce will have a field day with his creativity.. Got to put him on his pooper.

Robby has 1 week to learn how to complete routine passes by putting some touch on his passes.. Uphill climb I'm afraid..

You are right about the pressure.  Keep him off the field as long as we possibly can with long time-grinding drives and when on defense actually get some effective pressure on him. Sacks would be great but just making him rush throws might be good enough.  AU's DB's have stepped it up a little these last few games.  Yes, they have had some very bad busts in coverage as well, but I like that we seem to be playing much tighter coverage than what they were doing before.  It would drive me absolutely crazy watching 3rd down conversion after 3rd down conversion when the opponent needed 5 to 8 yards and our DB's were being made to play 10 yards off of the LOS.  

In regards to your comments on Robby, I have often wondered what would happen if Robby was told to quit worrying about your throwing mechanics and feet placement on any pass play designed for 15 yards or less and just sling the damn ball like you did in HS.  While it might cause issues on longer passes (which are already bad anyway), it might just help him just get the damn ball out in-time and in the proper spot.  Nick Marshall is a prime example of this methodology.  No one gave a damn about what the pass looked like, just that it got to the man it was sup to go to.  When he first came in they tried to change his throwing motion and footwork from how he played in high school.  The result was a 50% completion rate.  Once they let him throw how he wanted to throw the completion rate went up every single month from 50% in August to 64% in November.  Maybe that would make a difference in this case too.  Look at his junior year high school highlights.  Where did that arm go? 

 

Edited by BHDAU1
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Yeah pretty much what you listed is what would have to happen on offense. As others said, we need to bring a lot of pressure on Bryce and make him uncomfortable. Also, we’ll need the ball to bounce our way on some big plays. It’s not out of the question, but very unlikely. 

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I think we can keep it close for the 1st half, I'm just not sure we have the depth to last all the way to the end.  I do hope I'm wrong and turnovers can change everything...

I'm sure we'll see some trick plays and see us take some chances, Caddie-Style.  I hope so anyway, just go all out and play as hard as we can. 

Turdsville has to be down after missing out on ATL, they won't all be locked in and ready to play.  

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9 hours ago, gr82b4au said:

Run the ball, play keep away, don’t turn it over, get 2+ turnovers to go our way, play unreal defense, and pray.

when was the last time they lost at home? 

LSU 2019. Before that was Ole Miss 2015 and before that was TAMU 2012.

That is the most mind-boggling stat from the Saban dynasty. From 2011 to today, only 4 losses at home. 

Edited by woodford
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Lots of pressure on QB. Generate a couple turnovers and we can't turn it over.

Solid run game and a few big plays through the air to keep them honest.

The odds are long, but they've shown that they can play to the level of their opponent this year, up or down, so we have a chance. 

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The key will come down to being able to make a good number of first downs even if it only results in a field goal. Our defense will fold at the end of the third and all of the fourth qtr otherwise. Our defensive depth this year is pretty thin. Man it would be great to get an IB win for Caddy and the team. They have had a rough few seasons. 

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I like that there at least seems to be some hope and belief that Auburn does have a chance in this game, even if it is small one.  That most likely would not have been the case if any of us were asked 3 or 4 weeks ago.  It seems like everyone agrees that if Auburn does pull out a win, it won't be because Auburn's offense caused a bunch of confusion within Bama's defense, or AU out-schemed them with new plays and formations.  If they win the game it will be b/c Auburn played the most basic offense you can play with 100% effort the entire game, won the time of possession battle by a very large margin, won the turnover battle by +1 or more, and Auburn's defense had their best game of the season, getting consistent pressure on Bryce and getting them off the field quickly.  All 11 guys on Auburn's defense will need to run to the ball every single play.  Each Auburn defender needs to assume that all 10 of their teammates are going to miss the tackle, and they need to take the right angle to intercept the ball carrier.  It is definitely going to be a monumental task for this team, but I think they have the ability to pull it off with the momentum they have built with Caddy as HC.   

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If Auburn were to pull this off, it would be Saban's worst loss since ULM.

Only thing that really worries me is that Auburn has not been competitive in Tuscaloosa since 2014. That could change with Cadillac. We really have nothing to lose. I hope we win (obviously) but I really hope Tank has a day to end his career on a high note. 

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It will take a replication of last year’s game for Auburn to win (minus the running out of bounds by Tank).   It will have to be a very low scoring game with as few of possessions by either team.   Some time consuming drives by Auburn (resulting in points) and also Alabama.  Alabama needs to go for it on 4th down and come away empty several times.  

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Not really, but we’ll see. UA’s weakness on D is their secondary, specifically their safeties, and we’re basically a triple option team in our ratio (and passing efficiency) nowadays. 
 

On the other end, I can’t imagine how we really get consistent pressure without bringing extra guys. UA’s OL is still not good, but UT and UT both eventually got burnt by the need to bring extra guys on critical downs. Bryce is going to exploit that at some point. I think we’ve had too much attrition/injuries to replicate last year’s performance pass rushing wise. UA does have less skill position players to worry about than last year though, so maybe that helps in the calculus. 
 

With our non-ideal kicking game, I don’t see where we have an advantage at honestly 

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I believe a lot of the game will hinge on how well our Tigers handle the early emotions of the game and how they handle the atmosphere.  Bama fans are notorious for being loud early and quiet late.  They MUST have some early success running the ball and it would be great if they could dial up something tricky early to get a big play under their belts.  The defense MUST stop the run or they will have no chance.  I think they can win their fair share of battles against Bama’s wideouts.
 

If they can keep it within range or even going to the 2nd half who knows what can happen.

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On 11/22/2022 at 8:10 AM, woodford said:

LSU 2019. Before that was Ole Miss 2015 and before that was TAMU 2012.

That is the most mind-boggling stat from the Saban dynasty. From 2011 to today, only 4 losses at home. 

I don't know if I'll see another coach as good as him in my lifetime.

Edited by dyehardfanAU
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18 minutes ago, dyehardfanAU said:

I don't know if I'll see another coach as good as him in my lifetime.

Kirby Smart has the potential to be at the top for a long time.  Saban’s program hasn’t been the same since he left 

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Alabama is in a lot of ways a one man team. if their qb goes down then maybe. If not, we are too one dimensional to beat them or quite frankly most any SEC team. 

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19 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

Not really, but we’ll see. UA’s weakness on D is their secondary, specifically their safeties, and we’re basically a triple option team in our ratio (and passing efficiency) nowadays. 
 

On the other end, I can’t imagine how we really get consistent pressure without bringing extra guys. UA’s OL is still not good, but UT and UT both eventually got burnt by the need to bring extra guys on critical downs. Bryce is going to exploit that at some point. I think we’ve had too much attrition/injuries to replicate last year’s performance pass rushing wise. UA does have less skill position players to worry about than last year though, so maybe that helps in the calculus. 
 

With our non-ideal kicking game, I don’t see where we have an advantage at honestly 

The only justification for an Auburn win is that Auburn is the good guys, and bammers are……well bammers. 

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