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Assessing Auburn's strengths, weaknesses after 8-0 start

Nathan King

 

 

For the first time since 2019, Auburn basketball is undefeated through eight games.

Fresh off their most complete win of the season over Colgate, 93-66, the Tigers have more than a week off before heading to Atlanta to face Memphis in Holiday Hoopsgiving on Saturday. 

Bruce Pearl's team, currently ranked No. 15 in the AP poll, is likely to encroach upon the top 10 this week, and will assuredly be positioned there if they can run the table in its last four nonconference games before SEC play opens in late December.

Heading into that final stretch of the nonconference slate, here's a look at the Tigers' statistical strengths and shortcomings during their 8-0 start, as well as early SEC projections and win/loss percentages for the rest of their games in December.

Obviously as the season progresses, statistics will receive a larger sample size and will more accurately reflect Auburn's trends as a team — currently a squad with an elite defense and depth to spare, but with plenty of inconsistencies shooting the basketball. Auburn Undercover will continue to update with a new installment every couple weeks to monitor the Tigers' development.

Offense

Points per game: 73.0 (7th in SEC, 114th nationally)

Efficiency rating (KenPom): 109.2 (7thth, 45th)

Floor percentage (percentage of possessions where points are scored): 49.4% (7th, 73rd)

Effective FG percentage: 48.6% (9th, 228th)

2-point FG percentage: 51.5% (6th, 132nd)

3-point FG percentage: 29.0% (14th, 312th)

Free throw percentage: 65.0%% (14th, 304th)

Free throw rate (per possession): 26.5% (4th, 59th)

Assist to turnover ratio: 1.048 (7th, 128th)

Offensive rebounding rate: 36.6% (3rd, 10th)

Extra scoring possessions per game: 2.9 (8th, 86th)

Defense

Scoring defense: 58.0 PPG (3rd SEC, 16th nationally)

Efficiency rating (KenPom): 87.2 (3rd, 5th)

Opponent shooting percentage: 36.9% (4th, 14th)

Opponent 2-point FG percentage: 42.1% (4th, 21st)

Opponent 3-point FG percentage: 26.1% (3rd, 18th)

Opponent free throw rate: 20.5% (6th, 116th)

Defensive rebounding rate: 71.7% (13th, 230th)

Block rate: 13.9% (1st, 1st)

Steal rate: 12.9% (6th, 24th)

ESPN BPI

Offensive efficiency: 3.7 (8th SEC, 45th nationally)

Defensive efficiency: 6.0 (2nd, 6th)

Projected SEC record: 11-7 (No. 4 in SEC)

NCAA tournament projection (ESPN BPI)

99.9% chance to make tournament (seed projection: 5.8)

64.6% chance to make Round of 32

33.2% chance to make Sweet Sixteen

16.4% chance to make Elite Eight

7.6% chance to make Final Four

3.2% chance to make national championship

Games this month (ESPN BPI)

vs. Memphis: 66.3% chance to win*

vs. Georgia State: 96.3%

@ USC: 57.3%

@ Washington: 63.6%

vs. Florida: 75.9%

* = game played in Atlanta

Individual leaders

Scoring: Wendell Green Jr., 13.4 PPG

(T-13th SEC)

3-point %: Allen Flanigan, 38.5%

(19th SEC)

Free throw %: K.D. Johnson, 82.1%

(4th SEC)

Assists: Wendell Green Jr., 3.8 APG

(8th SEC)

Rebounds: Johni Broome, 8.7 RPG

(3rd SEC)

Blocks: Johni Broome, 3.4 BPG

(1st SEC)

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[AUinMS9528 1,086]

Our defense is nasty!   If we can add more offensive success, we can be dangerous!!!