Hypothetical QB value?

[aujohnson 297]

If you could pick any current FBS QB to transfer in who would it be and how much NIL money do you think should be offered to get them?

 

 

[W.E.D 11,070]

Considering Caleb Williams, the reigning Heisman winner, is still in college. Has to be him.

He's probably easily worth 2x what he's being paid. Ain't my money, give him 10mm

[aujohnson 297]

So you’d empty Nil for him? 😏

[W.E.D 11,070]

5 minutes ago, aujohnson said:

So you’d empty Nil for him? 😏

He's probably worth 5x that amount 

[aujohnson 297]

I don’t see how he could be for our program at this time. If he were all we needed for a championship run I’d still think that was high but I think we’d need several more pieces than that to play for a title. Interesting perspective either way though. 👍🏼

[TXaubie 566]

On 12/23/2022 at 6:02 PM, aujohnson said:

I don’t see how he could be for our program at this time. If he were all we needed for a championship run I’d still think that was high but I think we’d need several more pieces than that to play for a title. Interesting perspective either way though. 👍🏼

I think I get where you were going with this thread, and I like it. The only thing is you need to exclude Caleb. He is a generational type talent. 

Let me preface this with IMO.  He is the one guy that is worth emptying the war chest for. I would not be surprised if there is not another player in which that will be the case for. Looking back I will say Michael Vick is another, and Cam Newton could possibly be in that category.  I say possibly, cuz when it comes to anything Auburn I have a hard time dissecting my thoughts. My heart sometimes take over my mind!!

Still giving my opinion. When it’s all said and done he will be the most complete college QB to enter the draft, EVER. 

[TXaubie 566]

On 12/23/2022 at 6:02 PM, aujohnson said:

I don’t see how he could be for our program at this time. If he were all we needed for a championship run I’d still think that was high but I think we’d need several more pieces than that to play for a title. Interesting perspective either way though. 👍🏼

I misquoted you on my last post. I 100 percent agree with this train of thought. I have to think CHF looked at our roster and saw way more glaring needs that HAD to get addressed, first. While QB may be on his list. It was not at the top of the list, and I agree with that. 

Edited December 28, 2022 by TXaubie

[aujohnson 297]

A big part of this thread was just me trying to get an idea of what people think a player could be worth. I am a tight wad so my opinion is typically going to be lower than most. 
So even the value of an unattainable player gives some perspective…of course it would be that much more interesting if the player were actually a realistic option. 
Just trying to fill some space while we wait for our next commit/transfer! 🥶

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

On 12/23/2022 at 4:50 PM, aujohnson said:

If you could pick any current FBS QB to transfer in who would it be and how much NIL money do you think should be offered to get them?

 

 

This is an excellent thread. A couple years ago I asked a Wharton School U Penn Economist working for Charles River Assocs if NFL QBs are paid their value. He directed me to a paper (looking for it) that analyzed how severely UNDERPAID NFL QBs are and how much (million$) a natl title winning starting college QB is worth depending on team, conference, TV deal etc. The paper pre dates NIL.

[AEAugirl 9,623]

10 hours ago, aujohnson said:

A big part of this thread was just me trying to get an idea of what people think a player could be worth. I am a tight wad so my opinion is typically going to be lower than most. 
So even the value of an unattainable player gives some perspective…of course it would be that much more interesting if the player were actually a realistic option. 
Just trying to fill some space while we wait for our next commit/transfer! 🥶

Not sure but Cam was definitely worth that $180k 😂

There are rumors that Leary was asking $3M-$4M.  Not sure how true or accurate that is but that’s the talk. 

[woodford 3,655]

2 hours ago, aucanucktiger said:

This is an excellent thread. A couple years ago I asked a Wharton School U Penn Economist working for Charles River Assocs if NFL QBs are paid their value. He directed me to a paper (looking for it) that analyzed how severely UNDERPAID NFL QBs are and how much (million$) a natl title winning starting college QB is worth depending on team, conference, TV deal etc. The paper pre dates NIL.

Yes, please post if you can find it. I’d like to see the correlation between QBR and dollar value or some other metric. 

[tinman1 485]

1 hour ago, AEAugirl said:

Not sure but Cam was definitely worth that $180k 😂

There are rumors that Leary was asking $3M-$4M.  Not sure how true or accurate that is but that’s the talk. 

Leary came out publicly and said this is BS.  No such offers were ever made.

[AEAugirl 9,623]

32 minutes ago, tinman1 said:

Leary came out publicly and said this is BS.  No such offers were ever made.

Really?  Where has Leary stated this?  If he said it publicly, there would be a link to it that you could provide, right? 

There were teams offering Drake Maye $5M+ to transfer so to say that Leary thought he could be worth $3M isn’t out of the realm. 

Also considering in most states an offer to induce using NIL is against the law, I highly doubt the Learys would come out and confirm they were shopping for a better NIL deal. 

 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by AEAugirl

[tinman1 485]

4 hours ago, AEAugirl said:

Really?  Where has Leary stated this?  If he said it publicly, there would be a link to it that you could provide, right? 

There were teams offering Drake Maye $5M+ to transfer so to say that Leary thought he could be worth $3M isn’t out of the realm. 

Also considering in most states an offer to induce using NIL is against the law, I highly doubt the Learys would come out and confirm they were shopping for a better NIL deal. 

 

 

 

My bad.  It was Drake Maye from North Carolina I was thinking of. It's hard to tell the players without a scorecard as they used to say.

[AEAugirl 9,623]

46 minutes ago, tinman1 said:

My bad.  It was Drake Maye from North Carolina I was thinking of. It's hard to tell the players without a scorecard as they used to say.

To be fair to Maye, what he said was that “in order to hear these offers I’d have to be in the portal”…..I think he was just protecting his own eligibility to make sure everyone knew he was not speaking with these other schools.   His own coach said he was tampered with, but there are many ways to go about that without a school directly talking to a player. 

Pretty sure Bama was the school Mack Brown was talking about, probably Narduzzi as well.  Could see UGA as one too.  He was committed to Bama at one time and there was a TON of talk on Bama boards that they were going to get him in the portal this year.  Would not doubt they reached out thru his HS coach, etc.  

I mean you have Hartman entering the portal and everyone knows already he is going to Notre Dame.  Those talks happen in the background before the player even enters many times. 

[TXaubie 566]

17 hours ago, aujohnson said:

A big part of this thread was just me trying to get an idea of what people think a player could be worth. I am a tight wad so my opinion is typically going to be lower than most. 
So even the value of an unattainable player gives some perspective…of course it would be that much more interesting if the player were actually a realistic option. 
Just trying to fill some space while we wait for our next commit/transfer! 🥶

I thought that is were you were going with this thread. I love it!!

As was stated previously. In order for us to get Leary it was going to be 3-4 million. Even if that was not the exact number. He had a substantial offer from UK that was high enough for us not to bother matching. I think that was a smart move on our part. There was an 8 million dollar number on a high school kid earlier this year. So if that was true. I would think that 3-4 million for a proven transfer does not seem like it is that far fetched. 
 

The way I look at it is. For us to get a QB that will make people happy it would take probably half if not more of our NIL money. If we were to go that route. Who is he gonna throw too? More importantly who is gonna protect him? Etc…. To me that makes absolute zero sense!!

Now if we had a roster that could compete then I could totally understand going after the big name QB, but we are nowhere near close to that. That’s why I have used the word “luxury” in previous post.  We are not close to being able to afford luxury’s. We have too many necessities that need to be addressed first. 
 

I’ve seen time and time again post about missing on a QB, or we have to get such and such at QB. But the reality of it is. We do that and then We don’t have half the class that we just signed. Which puts us right back to where we were. Seems to me that Freeze understands that. Which I am thankful for. 
 

 

 

[TXaubie 566]

7 minutes ago, AEAugirl said:

To be fair to Maye, what he said was that “in order to hear these offers I’d have to be in the portal”…..I think he was just protecting his own eligibility to make sure everyone knew he was not speaking with these other schools.   His own coach said he was tampered with, but there are many ways to go about that without a school directly talking to a player. 

Pretty sure Bama was the school Mack Brown was talking about, probably Narduzzi as well.  Could see UGA as one too.  He was committed to Bama at one time and there was a TON of talk on Bama boards that they were going to get him in the portal this year.  Would not doubt they reached out thru his HS coach, etc.  

I mean you have Hartman entering the portal and everyone knows already he is going to Notre Dame.  Those talks happen in the background before the player even enters many times. 

Seems to be how the process is working now!!

[AEAugirl 9,623]

5 minutes ago, TXaubie said:

There was an 8 million dollar number on a high school kid earlier this year.


 

 

 

That was the Tennessee QB commit, Nico Iamaleava  https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/college-football/5-star-2023-cfb-recruit-reportedly-lands-8-million-nil-deal-media-fans-react/

[trinidad tiger 107]

These salaries being discussed are not realistic. 

First, most of the kids have one year remaining so they could go pro if they wanted......why arent they, if they are that good, why are they hanging around college.....because they arent thats why. So what they are paid should not be at the pro level.

Practice squad players make about 230K and the minimum for a rookie is 660K.

Some say the fella with the broken wing didnt sign with Auburn because he wanted 875K,  come on, be realistic.

Most of these numbers being thrown around are by the agents themselves trying to pump the stock.  

 

 

[AURex 1,990]

Just my opinion, but the best QB is not necessarily the highest rated by NFL scouts or media hype. (For example, IMO, Williams was not the best QB last season. Other QBs performed better. He was just high profile because Riley/USC. Media hype.)

Anyway, just my opinion, but the best QB for Auburn is the one that would best fit CHF's offensive system. That ain't Williams or the previous Heisman winner from that little school north of Auburn. Neither would be a good "value" for Auburn.

I'm not sure what the concept of "value" is these days. Rattler and Ewers were highly rated coming out of HS, but were they worth the buckets of money thrown at them at their first stop? Nope. Rattler seems to have finally found his footing at USCe, probably for much less NIL than he initially got at Okieville.

Hooker was not so hot at Va Tech, but the kid turned out to be a great fit for Heupner's offense after transferring to Tennessee, so I'd consider him a great "value" for UT. Did UT give him buckets of money to transfer there? I dunno, but probably not.

I really don't know who I'd pick as a QB worth throwing millions at for CHF offense. I'm gonna let him decide. If you were to ask him this question, I suspect his choices would be completely different from all the media hype and ratings sites.

All JMO, of course.

 

 

Edited December 30, 2022 by AURex

[AUINSY 2,228]

16 minutes ago, AURex said:

Just my opinion, but the best QB is not necessarily the highest rated by NFL scouts or media hype. (For example, IMO, Williams was not the best QB last season. Other QBs performed better. He was just high profile because Riley/USC. Media hype.)

I think media hype is part of it. I think it’s also b/c the way that the draft works on the NFL is the best players often go to the worst teams. So an A+ QB goes to an F/D- team, whereas a C+/B- QB will probably go to a B+ish team who has more pieces of a complete team than the best QBs. So the average or better than average QBs coming out of college can be/often are better set up for success in the pros with more complete teams and coaching. 

[Mikey 16,565]

14 hours ago, trinidad tiger said:

These salaries being discussed are not realistic. 

No they are not. Plus, anything close to these numbers is not sustainable. The first-time money will dry up in a hurry. I don't know what the solution is, but the current setup is a total mess. The NCAA, Congress, SOMEBODY is going to have to step up and make some rules that provide a level playing field and also satisfy the rulings of the courts.

[AU North 164]

1 hour ago, Mikey said:

No they are not. Plus, anything close to these numbers is not sustainable. The first-time money will dry up in a hurry. I don't know what the solution is, but the current setup is a total mess. The NCAA, Congress, SOMEBODY is going to have to step up and make some rules that provide a level playing field and also satisfy the rulings of the courts.

To establish

[AU North 164]

Just now, AU North said:

To establish

To finish my thought before my fingers got in the way: To establish basic ground rules for all to live by and satisfy the courts, my guess is some form of a Players Union with a CBA.  JMO  WDE

[GoudaMac 112]

On 12/27/2022 at 10:11 PM, TXaubie said:

I think I get where you were going with this thread, and I like it. The only thing is you need to exclude Caleb. He is a generational type talent. 

Let me preface this with IMO.  He is the one guy that is worth emptying the war chest for. I would not be surprised if there is not another player in which that will be the case for. Looking back I will say Michael Vick is another, and Cam Newton could possibly be in that category.  I say possibly, cuz when it comes to anything Auburn I have a hard time dissecting my thoughts. My heart sometimes take over my mind!!

Still giving my opinion. When it’s all said and done he will be the most complete college QB to enter the draft, EVER. 

I agree, somewhat. I think Trevor Lawrence was one of the best pure QB prospects that we've seen in some time.