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ClarkGriswold

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Posts posted by ClarkGriswold

    Freeze responds to not being aggressive enough

    in AU Football Forum

    Posted

    Yeah, we should have kept throwing! Just like Curly Hallman did…

    “After LSU jumped out to a 23-9 lead going into the fourth quarter, Auburn had five fourth quarter interceptions - three were returned for touchdowns - as the Tigers extended their winning streak to 15 games with a 30–26 win. Auburn made one first down in the second half, yet scored 27 points in the comeback.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmhAb3i99mg

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    Auburn vs A&M score prediction

    in AU Football Forum

    Posted · Edited by ClarkGriswold

    Sorry for the long post...if TLDR, go to bottom...

    I don’t post much but this one is perplexing, the teams seem close, so I did some stat comparisons (I’m not StatTiger, so TIFWIW)


    Auburn has played 5 teams (PSU, LSU, UGA, ARK, OM) in the top 35 of ESPN’s FPI, A&M has played 3 (ARK, MSU, UAT).  It seems the narrative is that A&M is better than AU talent-wise, especially up front. Will we be able to move the ball and slow them down or will we get steamrolled?


    So I accumulated the stats from those games to see trends, ignoring the games against weak competition. (sidenote: their last two wins…Mizzou FPI is 81 and USCe is 82, so, is A&M really “trending up”?)  Can’t ignore their win vs UAT and our loss to UGA, however.   Anyway, the average of the FPI of our top 5 opponents and their top 3 opponents happens to be 20.


    So here are the stats averaged from those games:  
    Points scored were 25 by us and 24 by them, points against us were 25 points against them 28.
    Ground yards gained 147 avg 4.0 for us, 126 avg 4.8 for them
    Ground yards allowed 141 avg 3.2 for us, 127 avg 3.6 for them
    Passing yards gained 263 ypa 7.4 for us, 190 avg 6.8 ypa for them
    Passing yards allowed 279 ypa 8.2 for us, 341 avg 8.3 ypa for them
    Turnovers gained and lost averaged 1 for both teams and the highest net in any of those games was +-1, so not really a factor
    Penalties against us 42 average (high 49/low 34) Penalties for us 39 (high 50/low 18)
    Penalties against them 61 avg (high 75/low 50) Penalties for them 71 (high 82/low 65)


    Our total yards gained minus given up running and passing vs the 5 opponents is negative 10. Our best was +95 vs LSU and worst -114 vs UGA
    Their total yards gained minus given up running and passing vs their top 3 opponents is negative 152. Those are -171 vs ARK -141 vs MSU and -143 vs UAT.  Note also they had a kickoff return for TD vs UAT, so that’s effectively substitutes for 75 yds of offense.
    Penalties look to benefit us by maybe 25 yards, note that they were penalized 90 yards in their last game.


    So, it appears that the run games net out about equal.  The passing games do not appear equal.  We give up about as many yards passing as we gain.  They give up more than 150 yards more than they gain.
    However, their passing D is skewed by 408 given up to MSU, but only allowing 30 on the ground. 


    So, all this analysis aside, two big questions regarding how each performed against “the best”.
    1.    Did we leave points on the field vs UGA and are we closer to that level than indicated?  Most would say “yes”.
    2.    Was their win against UAT “legit”?   My recollection of their game vs Alabama is of an impressive showing, but also one of several blown coverages by UAT, similar to UAT vs UT.  UAT has youth in their DB’s.  Plus, the kickoff return.  


    So, here’s my take…
    1.    Our passing game needs to continue to perform and exploit their weakness, this needs to lead to early points, take the crowd out of the game as much as possible.  We don’t need to “establish the run” Gus style which means “hard headed”. Mix it up.
    2.    If our coverage can stay tight, their passing game is not remarkable and the pressure to keep up will hopefully lead to a key interception or two.
    3.    Wind isn’t forecasted to be a factor (light crosswind).  Need all touchbacks.
    4.    Auburn has played a tougher schedule, so experience can make a difference. Couple their UAT win with two recent wins over terrible Mizzou and USCe and overconfidence is very possible. Auburn “still getting no respect” is a great motivator.
    5.    Turnovers and mistakes by us will most likely result in a loss, it’s just too much to overcome.


    Auburn 30 A&M 24
     

    • Like 3
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    Oscar Chapman

    in AU Football Forum

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

    we need to sneak in some helium to fill those balls up like we did under dye......lol. you remember that episode of a rival coach accusing us of cheating like that with punting? i still laugh.

    Ol Jackie.
    He never took any BS but he did take their balls

    • Haha 1

    If LSU implodes...

    in AU Recruiting Forum

    Posted

    On 10/8/2021 at 6:44 PM, AURex said:

    The real question is, no matter how much money is involved, who would stoop so low as to take the LSU job?

     

    Well, he’s been on everyone’s list for years, so….

    John Gruden! He’s available…

    (too soon?)

    • Haha 4

    2021 3* RB Jarquez Hunter Signs With AU!

    in AU Recruiting Forum

    Posted

    3 hours ago, TexasTiger said:

    Love Agee. If memory serves, he had the first 200 yard game in 1983 ahead of Bo & Little Train when he put up 219 against Maryland. But his running style was not similar to Irons.

    Maryland ran a "wide tackle 6" defense which left the middle wide open.   They had no D linemen on either side until outside our guards and no linebacker in the middle. Sitting in the end zone, it was incredible to watch them not adjust.

    That was our homecoming game... when scheduled, Maryland probably wasn't expected to provide much of a fight...

    • Like 2

    2019 2* LB/HB Kameron Brown Commits to AU!!!

    in AU Recruiting Forum

    Posted · Edited by ClarkGriswold

    2 hours ago, dilligas said:

    Don't know where you get that.  They didn't use star ratings at that time, but if they had Bo would have definitely been a 5 Star.  He was the most heralded Auburn signee that I can ever recall.  Vincent "Bo" Jackson.  Grew up a UAT fan but UAT told him he may not start until his Jr year whereas Pat Dye told him he'd have an opportunity to compete for a starting role as a Freshman and the rest is history.  When he picked Auburn people were stunned he hadn't chosen the evil empire.

     

    The "hot" signee that year was Alan Evans, RB from Enterprise, who as we all know, went on to oblivion until he was able to peddle his son to the dark side.

    Evans was all state 4A, http://www.ahsfhs.org/allstate/allstateteam21sql.asp?year=1981&class=4A&source=BN 

    And Bo was all state 3A .http://www.ahsfhs.org/allstate/allstateteam21sql.asp?year=1981&class=3A&source=BN

    However, Evans was the Parade All-american. https://www.newspapers.com/clip/7511733/1981_parade_all_america_high_school/

    I was in school at the time, we quickly figured out who the star was...

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