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BCS Projection

HardFightingSoldier

By HardFightingSoldier
in AU Football Forum

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312234 Veteran

312234 0

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Posted

I disagree.

312234's BCS Projections (Coaches/Harris/Computers)

1. Auburn (2/2/1)

2. Oregon (1/1/5)

3. TCU (4/4/2)

4. Boise State (3/3/6)

5. Alabama

Last week, our BCS rating was 0.9371

Predicting AU unanimous #1 in the computer rankings would give AU a new BCS rating of 0.9599

Oregon would be tied at BCS #1 with AU if they have a computer average of 0.8365 (last week their computer average was 0.740).  If Oregon's computer ranking is greater than 0.8365, Oregon gets BCS #1.  If Oregon's computer ranking is below 0.8365, AU gets BCS #1.  Oregon can't have an average of 0.8365 because the computer rankings only go to two decimal places.

The above statement in orange is based off of the assumption that AU is unanimous #1 in the computer rankings (which is 99% likely).

To put this in perspective, last weeks computer rankings were:

1 AU                 0.980

2 Missouri          0.960 <lost

3 Michigan State 0.930 <lost

4 TCU               0.870

5 Oklahoma        0.820

6 Boise State     0.780

7

8 Oregon           0.740

It'll definitely be close.  FYI, Missouri is ranked #3 in Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings even though they got drilled 17-31 by Nebraska. But Jeff Sagarin has Oregon at #2.

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87aubie Veteran

87aubie 0

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Not that it matters at this point, but I believe with us moving up to #2 in the coaches poll and #1 in the Harris, our computer ranking will remain #1 or #2 and will ensure we stay #1 in the BCS.  If anything, I think AU's BCS lead may extend slightly this week.  We may lose some ground the next few weeks, however, given Chattanooga and the open date.  Still, the story remains the same.  Win, and AU is in.

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312234 Veteran

312234 0

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we'll remain at #1 but the gap between us and Oregon may close bit but we are #1 IMO

I've been crunching #'s in excel for the past two hours.  It'll be VERY close either way.

with our SOS there is no possible way we could be unseated from the #1 spot

It's more possible than you think.  Oregon has a 0.99 rating for 2/3's of the formula.  AU has a rating of 0.94 for 2/3's of the formula.  The reason we'll be #1 is not because of our perfect/near perfect computer ranking, but because of Oregon's piss poor computer rankings (which were HELPED A LOT by Missouri and Michigan State losing).

Just win and were in.

Finishing #2 is just as good.This is fun......LOVING this season

^ This ^

Moving up in the Coaches and Harris solidifies this statement.

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UltraSwagnus Experienced

UltraSwagnus 1

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i think there is a rule that if you dont lose as #1 you cant fall, dont remember where i heard that from tho

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Ronald McDonald Founding Father

Ronald McDonald 0

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i think there is a rule that if you dont lose as #1 you cant fall, dont remember where i heard that from tho

I really hope you're right! That should be a rule IMO.

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n2hoops Mentor

n2hoops 0

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Posted

I disagree.

312234's BCS Projections (Coaches/Harris/Computers)

1. Auburn (2/2/1)

2. Oregon (1/1/5)

3. TCU (4/4/2)

4. Boise State (3/3/6)

5. Alabama

Last week, our BCS rating was 0.9371

Predicting AU unanimous #1 in the computer rankings would give AU a new BCS rating of 0.9599

Oregon would be tied at BCS #1 with AU if they have a computer average of 0.8365 (last week their computer average was 0.740).  If Oregon's computer ranking is greater than 0.8365, Oregon gets BCS #1.  If Oregon's computer ranking is below 0.8365, AU gets BCS #1.  Oregon can't have an average of 0.8365 because the computer rankings only go to two decimal places.

The above statement in orange is based off of the assumption that AU is unanimous #1 in the computer rankings (which is 99% likely).

To put this in perspective, last weeks computer rankings were:

1 AU                 0.980

2 Missouri          0.960 <lost

3 Michigan State 0.930 <lost

4 TCU               0.870

5 Oklahoma        0.820

6 Boise State     0.780

7

8 Oregon           0.740

It'll definitely be close.  FYI, Missouri is ranked #3 in Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings even though they got drilled 17-31 by Nebraska. But Jeff Sagarin has Oregon at #2.

I have been wondering about something since we were ranked #1 last week - does the fact that we are playing a D-II team hurt us in the computers this week? Is it treated essentially like a bye week or are we penalized? Obviously beating UGA and then BAMA help us - just wondering if we can be hurt in the PC polls by this upcoming game? (other than losing.....which makes everything moot if that comes even close to happening.....)

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312234 Veteran

312234 0

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@n2hoops,

Playing UTChat will hurt our SOS and we could lose our #1 computer ranking.

Just hope teams 4-10 continue to lose week in week out.

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87aubie Veteran

87aubie 0

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Our computer ranking will drop some because of the Chatt game.  UGA is probably computer neutral.  The bye week is a wash.  We'll get a bounce from Bama.  But it's all relative.  Boise State will continue to drop due to their weak schedule.  Apart from Oregon, they are the only real "other" BCS contender right now.  It's pretty safe to say that if AU just keeps winning, the BCS will take care of itself.

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JayStew1345162876 Apprentice

JayStew1345162876 0

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That's the same thinking that kept Auburn out in '04. Take care of business on the field and it will all work out.

i think there is a rule that if you dont lose as #1 you cant fall, dont remember where i heard that from tho

I really hope you're right! That should be a rule IMO.

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jsb29 Mentor

jsb29 0

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Jesse Palmer is a freaking idiot.  He just put us @ 3rd.  Herby is on now, I bet he puts us in the same spot.  How do these fools place teams above us, who have only beaten 1/4 of the ranked teams that we have?

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