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Question for you statistics guys out there


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I was having a discussion with a friend about statistics, and he is big on following trends.  Not just trends of certain teams, but trends in college football in general.  I find all of this stuff very interesting, but have a hard time deciding what to do with all of the information (including general statistics).  How much stock does anyone put into "trends" vs "stats?"

Some interesting trends:

ARKANSAS: 6-0 ATS off a win against a conference rival

S CAROLINA: 0-8 ATS after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games

VANDERBILT: 0-6 ATS in home games against conference opponents

LSU: 14-1 w/l record coming off of a loss under Les Miles

LSU is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

LSU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

needless to say that my buddy is into "the spread," nonetheless I think this stuff is interesting.  Is anyone aware of any trends regarding AU that could be important going forward this season?

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Sounds like your buddy is into betting on games.  The problem with relying too heavily on trends or statistics when attempting to predict what will happen (betting on a game) is that it all depends on what trends and/or statistics you deem important.  Thus, even though you are looking at objective data, you almost always have to be subjective at some point with which trends or statistics you think matter.  Also, when considering trends, people always get nervous about the supposed "law of averages."  The bottom line is that it is interesting to study statistics and trends, and knowing these can make you a more informed opiner, but predicting the future with any certainty on a consistent basis is impossible and that is why gamblers usually lose in the long run.

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