Can Gene Chizik Survive Losing Season?

[auburn4ever 1,266]

Saw this on the recruiting-eagle.com

Oct 08, 2012 - 12:18PM

Four years removed from his hiring and two years following a BCS National Championship, Auburn Coach Gene Chizik is struggling mightily.

Coming off Saturday’s 24-7 home loss to 10-point underdog Arkansas, Auburn is now 1-4, and the wolves have begun howling at Chizik’s doorsteps.

In all likelihood, the Tigers will finish the 2012 season with a losing record, despite racking up sparkling classes in Chizik’s first three recruiting campaigns.

In his first four partial years on the Plains, Chizik is now 31-14, with an SEC record of 15-12. At first glance, that record looks like a pretty sporty.

But if you remove the 2010 season in which superman quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton directed the Tigers to 16 wins, the overall record falls to 17-14. And the Tigers’ SEC record since Newton’s departure is now 4-3, with Auburn having lost five SEC games in a row

Of course, you can’t remove Cam Newton and the 2010 season, but it does illustrate Chizik’s rather pedestrian record without Newton – and more importantly, perhaps, the importance of the supporting cast that former coach Tommy Tuberville left behind in the 2009-10 seasons.

The reality is that Auburn was looking at a wide receiver at Blinn (Texas) Junior College in Texas when the assistant coaches stumbled across Newton. Word is that Chizik at first wasn’t that impressed and had to be talked into recruiting him by assistant coaches Curtis Luper and Trooper Taylor.

Chizik Leads Team Into Stadium Before Arkansas Debacle

But back to Chizik’s first season in 2009. The fact is that every single starter on that 2009 team that finished 8-5 were players that Tuberville recruited. Not a single signee in Chizik’s 2009 recruiting class was able to crack the starting lineup.

It was Chizik’s good fortune that he hired an innovative offensive coordinator in Gus Malzahn, and that Auburn had a serviceable quarterback already onboard in Chris Todd who was left over from the Tuberville regime. (As a footnote, Tuberville reportedly wanted to hire Malzahn in 2008 instead of Tony Franklin, but was overruled by athletics director Jay Jacobs because of salary issues.)

There were also three excellent wide receivers in place in 2009 Darvin Adams, Terrell Zachary and Montez Billing -- all Tuberville signees.

And then there was a junior-dominated veteran offensive line.

Auburn reeled off five straight wins to open the 2009 season, including impressive victories over West Virginia at home and Tennessee in Knoxville.

Then the Tigers went to Fayetteville, Ark., and hit the wall, losing 44-23. That was followed by a 33-20 beating at LSU. In its most disappointing game of the year, Auburn lost to Kentucky at home 21-14 in a totally uninspired effort.

Auburn brushed aside Furman, and put up valiant, but losing efforts against Georgia and Alabama.

Somehow, with a 7-5 record, Auburn managed an invitation to the Outback Bowl where it weathered an offensive onslaught by Northwestern to outlast the Wildcats, 38-35, in overtime.

With a veteran offense and defense returning, there were high hopes for Auburn in 2010. But no one really had any idea just how good Cameron Newton was. It turned out he was possibly the best-ever college football player – at least for one season. He ran and passed the Tigers to its first outright and undisputed national title since 1957.

Chizik and Auburn football were on top of the world in January 2011.

Then came the 2011 football season, with Newton, Adams and star defensive tackle Nick Fairley (also a Tuberville recruit) gone to the NFL.

Auburn had failed to plan ahead and recruit and groom a blue-chip quarterback to step in and take over for Newton. It was left to journeymen Barrett Trotter and Clint Moseley. Neither was highly recruited out of high school – and it showed as the 2011 season progressed.

The most glaring problem, though, was the loss of 19 seniors, along with six other players who quit the team. One of the most serious and embarrassing incidents were the dismissals of four players, wide receivers Antonio Goodwin and Shaun Goodwin, tight end Dakota Moseley and safety Mike McNeil for armed robbery. A fifth player, H-back Eric Smith, was dismissed for alleged domestic abuse.

Auburn managed to finish the season 8-5, but it was ugly, with some terrible blowout losses along the way: 38-24 to Clemson; 38-14 to Arkansas; 45-10 to LSU; 45-7 to Georgia; and 42-14 to Alabama.

The Tigers managed to salvage a Chick-fil-A Bowl bid, however, and looked good in soundly beating Virginia, 43-24, behind a revived Trotter at quarterback. It appeared Auburn might be righting itself for the 2012 season.

But an ominous sign appeared, however. Sophomore Michael Dyer, a 1,000-rusher for two straight years and the offensive MVP for the national championship game, was suspended for the bowl game. Dyer was eventually dismissed from the team.

Dyer’s dismissal put the team in a big hole as Chizik decided in the off-season to switch from a spread offense to a power I pro style.

To succeed in this offense, you need a big, strong blocking fullback. So, the Tigers acquired one in Jay Prosch (6-1, 250), who transferred from Illinois and was immediately eligible.

You also need to big strong tailbacks that can pound it and have some speed. Auburn had gotten early commitments in 2011 from T.J. Yeldon of Daphne, Ala. (6-2, 215), one of the top running backs in the country; and Jovon Robinson (6-1, 220) of Memphis, Tenn., another four-star prospect.

The only problem is that neither is on Auburn’s roster this fall. Yeldon reneged on his commitment to Auburn, signed with Alabama and his now part of the Crimson Tide’s rotation at running back. Robinson signed, but was later declared ineligible because of questions about his high school transcript.

As a result, Auburn is left with three scat backs more suitable for a spread offense. It has no back with the muscle to pound it between the tackles.

And because of Chizik & Co.’s dismal recruiting record at quarterback, Auburn is left with sophomore Kiehl Frazier, an obvious talent who is suited for the spread, and Moseley, who also comes from the spread background but is simply not an SEC-caliber QB.

Frazier has simply not grasped the new offense, and may be the worst quarterback – at least statistically – in the nation. He was pulled at the half of Saturday’s loss to Arkansas, but Moseley fared little better in the second half.

Offensive coordinator Scot Loeffler, who is also now on the hot seat, is trying to fit a square peg into a round hole, and it’s obviously not working. The only other backup is true freshman Jonathan Wallace, who has seen limited duty in the wildcat and has yet to attempt a pass.

Chizik Questions Refs During Arkansas Loss

Auburn is now 1-4 (0-3 SEC) going into Saturday’s game as a 1-point favorite over an equally beleaguered Ole Miss team. Even though the Rebels are 3-3, they have at least shown they can put up points, averaging 35 per game.

Can the Auburn offense generate enough offense to beat Ole Miss on the road? If past performance were any indication, one would have to say no. The Tiger offense is only averaging 15 points per game.

With a 1-4 record, this may be one of the few games left on Auburn’s schedule (other than Alabama A&M, New Mexico State and possibly Vanderbilt) that the Tigers might have a chance to win.

Assuming the worst, and Auburn limps home with a 4-8 or 3-9 record, can Chizik keep his job?

Yes. With a buyout of $7.5 million and two years removed from a national championship, there is no way Chizik will be fired following the 2012 season.

However, there will be enormous pressure on him in 2013 to likely win at least nine games. And the difficulty of achieving that goal is enormous, considering the flip of the schedule, which has Auburn with SEC road games at LSU, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Georgia. Then there’s always Alabama.

A sub-par year in 2013 would likely cost Chizik his job, and possibly the job of athletics director Jay Jacobs. After all, it was Jacobs who pretty much bet his future on the hiring of a coach from Iowa State who brought a 5-19 record and a 10-game losing streak with him.

With the 1-4 start of the 2012 season, many of the Auburn faithful are beginning to openly question the coaching ability of Chizik. And there are other questions about Chizik. The number of off-the-field issues under his regime have raised a red flag with many Auburn fans and alumni.

Is Chizik the really a national championship coach, or was that a “fluke” year in 2010 only made possibly by a once-in-a-lifetime” quarterback and a senior dominated team left by Tuberville? Or is he really the 5-19 coach that many Iowa State fans were glad to see leave?

Only time will tell.

Auburn Players in Final Seconds of Arkansas Loss

There are reports of dissension among players and within the coaching staff. Some upperclassmen are opening criticizing younger players for failing to go full-speed in practice because they're pouting over the lack of playing time. Some of those younger players have taken to Twitter to voice their complaints.

Has Chizik lost control of his players and/or his staff?

There's no question the Auburn football team is floundering and rudderless at the moment, and is the laughingstock of the SEC. Someone needs to take control -- if it's not too late.

Auburn people are waiting for answers and are running out of patience.

[fishhawkeagle 0]

I think he can and probably should survive. He has a 7 game interview in order to do it. I don't expect to see too many more wins this year but CGC needs to grab ahold of this team and get it's head up. I think VanGorder has the defense going in the right direction but Gene himself needs to take responsibility for this disaster of an offense. If he needs to bust Loeffler down and let someone else take the lead, then so be it. We don't really know what's going on insde the locker room and I hope it's not too far gone. I saw Sammy Coates interview today and loved it. There are plenty of guys who arent accepting this crap and want to charge the hill. this "multiple" crap is going nowhere and I don't think it had a chance from jumpstreet. I don't claim to, but if I understand the multiple offense correctly they will play different schemes as the defense allows. That means spread plays here, pro style here. A little west coast here a little I formation there. If that's right, then we tried to install not only one new offense this year but 3 or 4. Pretty tough to get installed in one offseason. But, if that truly it is, then why havent they gone with a spread heavy attack to begin the season and bring in the pro over time as they had time to learn it. So far it looks like they just threw it all in a blender and hit the old frappe button.

Time to get back to basics, do one thing well, do it over and over, then branch out from there.

[autigeremt 6,135]

I agree! 100%

[kingofhill1 2]

It is not true that not a single one of Chizik's signees in the 2009 class made the starting lineup. Darren Bates has been a starter from day 1.

[fishhawkeagle 0]

I agree! 100%

thanks, I've calmed down a bit since the other day but another turd against ole miss and I'll be flying again. Fair warning.

WDE!

[Texan4Auburn 1,626]

As I said. This goes on during 2013 and I will join everyone in the panic.

[autigeremt 6,135]

The 7.5 million buyout will have a lot to do with it unless we go 3-9. That may crush he and JJ.

[AURandy56 148]

I wonder why Chizik was given a 7.5 million $ buy-out, and where was the AU president when this was happening? According to the article, Jacobs balked at Tubs hiring Malzahn due to money issues, but then gives Chizik a 7.5 million buy-out (I heard on a radio sports show that it doesn't become 7.5 million until December---it's 10 million now). Jacobs could have really put AU behind the 8 ball on this, and because of this, he should be fired ASAP.

[WarEagle10 77]

Coach Chiz buy-out ensures he will be here next year IMO. Also, it doesn't look good if we fire a HC just two years removed from winning a NC. Who in their right mind would want to come coach at a school where that could happen to them and their family? Yes, things are in bad way for us right now. We jut have to suffer through these days in hopes of brighter days ahead. (translation.... things SUCK right now. Hopefully our staff can get things turned around)

[ellitor 31,909]

I wonder why Chizik was given a 7.5 million $ buy-out, and where was the AU president when this was happening? According to the article, Jacobs balked at Tubs hiring Malzahn due to money issues, but then gives Chizik a 7.5 million buy-out (I heard on a radio sports show that it doesn't become 7.5 million until December---it's 10 million now). Jacobs could have really put AU behind the 8 ball on this, and because of this, he should be fired ASAP.

That is a big question. People involved thought it was unnecessary. You are correct. His buyout is 10 Mil now and drops to 7.5 on December 1st.

[ellitor 31,909]

Coach Chiz buy-out ensures he will be here next year IMO. Also, it doesn't look good if we fire a HC just two years removed from winning a NC. Who in their right mind would want to come coach at a school where that could happen to them and their family? Yes, things are in bad way for us right now. We jut have to suffer through these days in hopes of brighter days ahead. (translation.... things SUCK right now. Hopefully our staff can get things turned around)

Not necessarily. They could possibly buy it out because there is a coach out there who would take the job at a low value contract with potential raises for winning. In essence that would save some money.

[WarEagle10 77]

I wonder why Chizik was given a 7.5 million $ buy-out, and where was the AU president when this was happening? According to the article, Jacobs balked at Tubs hiring Malzahn due to money issues, but then gives Chizik a 7.5 million buy-out (I heard on a radio sports show that it doesn't become 7.5 million until December---it's 10 million now). Jacobs could have really put AU behind the 8 ball on this, and because of this, he should be fired ASAP.

That is a big question. People involved thought it was unnecessary. You are correct. His buyout is 10 Mil now and drops to 7.5 on December 1st.

My guess.....after we won a NC, I guess our suits thought other schools would be beating down Coach Chiz's door to get him. It was also a "good faith" move on our part to show support for him. I am in the camp that we need a new AD. This isn't all on JJ. The powers that be (suits/money) had to approve this.

[REInvestingTiger 2]

I wonder why Chizik was given a 7.5 million $ buy-out, and where was the AU president when this was happening? According to the article, Jacobs balked at Tubs hiring Malzahn due to money issues, but then gives Chizik a 7.5 million buy-out (I heard on a radio sports show that it doesn't become 7.5 million until December---it's 10 million now). Jacobs could have really put AU behind the 8 ball on this, and because of this, he should be fired ASAP.

That is a big question. People involved thought it was unnecessary. You are correct. His buyout is 10 Mil now and drops to 7.5 on December 1st.

So we will announce the new HC on Dec 1?

Silly over-reaction by JJ. I believe JJ will also feel some fall-out on this one.

[AUcivE09 577]

If I am not mistaking, Chizik has exceeded expectations each season up to this year. I am as disappointed as anyone in this season as we all were expecting to be around 4-1 at this point. Look at all the players teams normally bring back after a NC......then look what we had. He took over a 5-7 team, that was horrible, and gave us an outback bowl win - follows it with a NC - then took a class of 71% freshman/sophmores and weathered what we all knew would be a rough season and still won a bowl game - and now for the first time since he has been at AU I am disappointed after the Arky game. Does the guy not get a chance? What if uat fired spanky after the 6-6 season with a LaMo loss? AU needs to do the right thing and give him AT LEAST 1 more season. Chizik is recruiting better than ever before in AU history - has shown he can handle any $h!t thrown our way from the other school - and if anything, has a knack for finding good coaches (say what you want about roof - he has an NC).

[keesler 5,814]

Coach Chiz buy-out ensures he will be here next year IMO. Also, it doesn't look good if we fire a HC just two years removed from winning a NC. Who in their right mind would want to come coach at a school where that could happen to them and their family? Yes, things are in bad way for us right now. We jut have to suffer through these days in hopes of brighter days ahead. (translation.... things SUCK right now. Hopefully our staff can get things turned around)

Not necessarily. They could possibly buy it out because there is a coach out there who would take the job at a low value contract with potential raises for winning. In essence that would save some money.

Well, what "big name" "proven winner" "big hire" "big splash" coach would agree to a low value contract?

Just kidding.... kinda.

[DyeCampAlum 335]

If I am not mistaking, Chizik has exceeded expectations each season up to this year. I am as disappointed as anyone in this season as we all were expecting to be around 4-1 at this point. Look at all the players teams normally bring back after a NC......then look what we had. He took over a 5-7 team, that was horrible, and gave us an outback bowl win - follows it with a NC - then took a class of 71% freshman/sophmores and weathered what we all knew would be a rough season and still won a bowl game - and now for the first time since he has been at AU I am disappointed after the Arky game. Does the guy not get a chance? What if uat fired spanky after the 6-6 season with a LaMo loss? AU needs to do the right thing and give him AT LEAST 1 more season. Chizik is recruiting better than ever before in AU history - has shown he can handle any $h!t thrown our way from the other school - and if anything, has a knack for finding good coaches (say what you want about roof - he has an NC).

I think this is the big issue. I agree with the first statement.

But there's another side. Wins and losses, last year was a decent surprise. However, we were lucky. Utah State and Mississippi State were games we should have lost. We caught Carolina and Florida when they were crippled. I realize coaches deserve credit for close wins, but we had a bit of a smoke and mirrors thing going on. And then Arky, LSU, Georgia, and Alabama just spanked our butts -- we weren't even competitve (maybe a bit with Arkansas). The Virginia game lifted our spirits a bit.

So this year is dreadful. It's possible to think this year is a continuation of trends that developed last year. If that's the case, it's not a matter of giving Chizik a pass after a down year; it's a matter of stopping the bleeding.

Which way do you see it? A bad year, or a downward trend?

[aucanucktiger 1,702]

Yes.

[aucanucktiger 1,702]

There are no "fluke" national titles, that's so stupid it makes my hair hurt. Especially coming out of the SEC undefeated.

[BaldDisciple 0]

Silly over-reaction by JJ. I believe JJ will also feel some fall-out on this one.

If JJ isn't fired, the heat he and Chiz feels should be TJ getting canned. Who am I kidding, JJ and TJ both need to be gone ASAP.

[Chaotic_zx 706]

I think Chizik uses his Natty card this year. The fan base is at each other throats(divided). Players are disgruntled. So in using his Natty card he gets one more year. If next year is the same then a fire sale is in order(as in JJ and the whole staff).

[keesler 5,814]

If I am not mistaking, Chizik has exceeded expectations each season up to this year. I am as disappointed as anyone in this season as we all were expecting to be around 4-1 at this point. Look at all the players teams normally bring back after a NC......then look what we had. He took over a 5-7 team, that was horrible, and gave us an outback bowl win - follows it with a NC - then took a class of 71% freshman/sophmores and weathered what we all knew would be a rough season and still won a bowl game - and now for the first time since he has been at AU I am disappointed after the Arky game. Does the guy not get a chance? What if uat fired spanky after the 6-6 season with a LaMo loss? AU needs to do the right thing and give him AT LEAST 1 more season. Chizik is recruiting better than ever before in AU history - has shown he can handle any $h!t thrown our way from the other school - and if anything, has a knack for finding good coaches (say what you want about roof - he has an NC).

I respect your opinion and I agree Chizik deserves another year and he will get the entire 2013 season.

I've been greatly disappointed in him the last two seasons. Strictly by Auburn standards; AU should never, under any circumstances be sitting at 4-12 against our biggest rivals at the end of this year. By Auburn standards; AU should never, under any circumstances field a defense that ranks anywhere close to the bottom dwellers in this conference - AU should never field an offense at or near the BOTTOM of all FBS teams. Totally unacceptable, no excuses for this.

We've witnessed all-time highs for AU with Chizik in 2010 - now we are witnessing all-time lows for AU.

There are no excuses left for putting the talent we have on the field and they continue to look unprepared, unmotivated, undisciplined, confused, etc.

You say Chizik has "exceeded expectations" every year he's been here. But, who's expectations? Some football analysts predicted AU to have a 4-8 record THIS season - so if all we are worried about is CGC "exceeding expectations" then if he somehow wins more than 4 games, is it ok? I hate the phrase "exceeded expectations", when this team gets their asses handed to them consistantly by Arky/LSU/UGA/UAT more times than not. We haven't been on probation with scholarship reductions, with a depleted roster full of scrubs, what's holding us back?

[jvilletiger 0]

Good post Keesler. You know why Chizik has exceeded expectations? It's because the expectations keep dropping! When was the last time we weren't preseason top 25 two years in a row? Next year will be three.

[80Tiger 882]

I think 5-7 is different than 3-9. That means that we will beat a couple of teams that the fan base does not think we will at the moment (Miss and Vandy). I think it also depends on how we perform in the losses. I also do not believe the buyout money will be an issue. This will come from outside sources and not directly through the university. Most of the head coaches salary comes from outside deals and endorsements anyway. The university can only officially pay him a certain amount. I also think it is about the direction of the program both on the field and off. If the perception of the program deteriorates enought then you have to make a change. Recruiting, TV money, bowl games, fan support (money) will all suffer. AU football spends a lot of money and supports a lot of the athletic programs. It has to be on the national spotlight pretty consistently to support the spend.

[Mikey 15,820]

The article is clever. Negative, but clever nonetheless. Tuberville wanted Malzahn but JJ denied it? Where did the writer get this little bit of info, snatch it out of thin air? Does he have informatiion that Auburn wouldn't match Tulsa's $ for Malzahn's services? No, he wrote that because it sounds good and can't be proven to be the lie that it is.

The rest of it is similar to all the BS about Cam, sounds good and skates close enough to the edge of truth that he can't be sued for liable.

The buyout, when you include assistant coaches, would be closer to $15 million. That's before you start with paying a new staff. Even with finishing 3-9 Coach Chizik gets 2013 to right the ship. He's earned that whether the bamzos and other rivals want to see Auburn go through the upheaval of a coachiung change or not.

[Bathel 50]

I think it has to do more with off field issues and no progression in the offense and defense over time... less to do with wins and losses.

I could/can handle a 5-7 season if we were getting better from game to game and you could see the impovements... and we were not having consistant off field issues. As of right now, I don't see this type of progression from game to game, let alone from year to year... couple that with the appearant lack of control within the team, and you have a HC that should be on the hot seat.

I have no inside information on what is really going on with the coaches and this team, but I'm sure the powers that be do have that kind of information. I trust they will do what is best for AU in the long run and if that's to swallow the pill and get a new HC now, then they will. A lot of that will depend on what HC are avalible come the end of the year. If the right coach is out there, they will pull the trigger... if not, they will wait and see what goes on next year, but trust me... they will be looking around to see if they can upgrade. I don't forsee CGC to make it past next year, unless there is marked imporvement, which could happen.