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Class of '13 - the "worst case" scenario would be just fine.


IronMan70

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What is the "worst case" scenario ? Well, if we don't count on any of the 3 wavering commits or any of the high targets we are after, let's see where we would be then. If we factor in the solid commits and the recruits that we have a high probability of signing, as of today we would have a class of 19 commits. By using the highest of the 247 ranking or 247 composite ranking, for those that care about that stuff, those 19 players would have an average rating of 3.36 stars.

But most importantly, we would have 19 players that really want to be an Auburn Tiger and that would be just fine. We can live with that. However, there are still 3 weeks to go so who knows what other player will become a member of the high probability to commit pool. Additionally, we would still have a decent chance of getting 1 or 2 of the 8 players that are either wavering commits or high targets. But, if we don't sign our full quota this year, we will be able to pick up the difference next year and next year this staff will have had a full 12 months to work their magic. Considering everything, we are in pretty good shape now. We have come a long way in 7 weeks.

As of 1/17/13

Solid Commits: (12)

4* Jason Smith QB/WR

4* Jeremy Johnson QB

4* Cameron Toney LB

4* Ben Bradley DT (enrolled)

4* Earnest Robinson WR

3* Cameron Artis-Payne RB (enrolled)

3* Devonte Danzey OG (enrolled)

3* Nick Marshall QB/CB

3* Kamryn Melton CB

3* Brandon King S

3* Jimmy Hutchinson P

3* Daniel Carlson K

high probability to commit: (7)

4* Austin Golson OT

4* Zach Cunningham LB/S

3* Khari Harding S

3* Cameron Sutton ATH

3* Peyton Barber RB

3* De'Runnya Wilson WR

3* Jonathan Walton RB/LB

________________________

3.36 average 19 commits

in the running (wavering commits & high targets): (8)

5* Carl Lawson DE (wavering commit)

4* Jordan Wilkins RB (wavering commit)

4* Tashawn Bower DE (wavering commit)

5* Reuben Foster LB (high target)

5* Derrick Green RB (high target)

5* Montravius Adams DT (high target)

5* Tony Conner S (high target)

5* MacKensie Alexander CB (high target)

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IronMan, I know you probably don't need any patting on the back, but that is an excellent post. Good info, nice take on the situation.

War Eagle!

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No way I see us signing LESS than 2 5* players. So your worst case, then adding just two, would be a fabulous class. I think we have a legit shot of 4+ 5* players...that would be a home run!

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IronMan, I know you probably don't need any patting on the back, but that is an excellent post. Good info, nice take on the situation.

War Eagle!

Well thanks. Mainly I just wanted to know what would be the worse thing that could happen to us given all this fluid movement. As I pulled some of the info together from various places and wrote it down, I was able to see where we stood much better. I thought it might be useful to others so I'm glad it was helpful. Oh yah and thanks for the attaboy, haha.
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No way I see us signing LESS than 2 5* players. So your worst case, then adding just two, would be a fabulous class. I think we have a legit shot of 4+ 5* players...that would be a home run!

I think so too and if you lay it all out it's easy to see. We have 3 weeks to go too so I think more names will pop up. It seems like this staff is hitting its stride now.
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I don't know if you should put Golson under the high probability category..

Agree but I think we get him.

When I actually think we will get someone, in my book that's called high probability. ;)
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I don't know if you should put Golson under the high probability category..

Agree but I think we get him.

When I really think we will get someone, in my book that's called high probability. :laugh:

51%/49%
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I tell you what, IronMan. I'd be really happy with your 19 plus the top two 5*s. Give me the next two 5*s on your list, in addition, and I'd be ecstatic.

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Right on IronMan. I know they are not the glamour recruits but it sounds like we are getting a couple of good kickers too. Not so fun to dream about but a made field goal and some booming punts can mean alot. I still don't think they are really football players. You out there Al?

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Top 12 + Carl, I'm happy.

Top 12 + Carl and Ruben, I'm VERY happy.

Top 12 + Carl, Ruben, and Derrick, I'm ecstatic.

Top 13 + Carl, Ruben, Derrick, and Monty I'm out of my mind.

Anything else is bonus.

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What is the "worst case" scenario ? Well let's not count on any of the 3 wavering commits or any of the high targets we are after and let's see where we would be then. If we factor in the solid commits and the recruits that we have a very high probability of signing, as of today, we would have a class of 19 commits. By using the highest of the 247 ranking or 247 composite ranking, for those that care about that stuff, those 19 players would have an average rating of 3.36 stars.

But more importantly, we would have 19 players that really want to be an Auburn Tiger. That would be just fine and we can live with that. However, there are still 3 weeks to go so who knows what other player will become a high probability to commit. Additionally, we would still have a decent chance of getting 1 or 2 of the 8 players that are either wavering commits or high targets. But, if we don't sign our full quota, we will be able to pick up the difference next year and this staff will have had a full 12 months to work their magic. Considering everything, we are in pretty good shape.

As of 1/17/13

Solid Commits: (12)

4* Jason Smith QB/WR

4* Jeremy Johnson QB

4* Cameron Toney LB

4* Ben Bradley DT

4* Earnest Robinson WR

3* Cameron Artis-Payne RB

3* Devonte Danzey OG

3* Nick Marshall QB/CB

3* Kamryn Melton CB

3* Brandon King S

3* Jimmy Hutchinson P

3* Daniel Carlson K

high probability to commit: (7)

4* Austin Golson OT

4* Zach Cunningham LB/S

3* Khari Harding S

3* Cameron Sutton ATH

3* Peyton Barber RB

3* De'Runnya Wilson WR

3* Jonathan Walton RB/LB

________________________

3.36 average 19 commits

in the running (wavering commits & high targets): (8)

5* Carl Lawson DE (wavering commit)

4* Jordan Wilkins RB (wavering commit)

4* Tashawn Bower DE (wavering commit)

5* Reuben Foster LB (high target)

5* Derrick Green RB (high target)

5* Montravius Adams DT (high target)

5* Tony Conner S (high target)

5* MacKensie Alexander CB (high target)

Getting those 19 would be an awesome feat for this coaching staff and yes I would call it a day and ride off into the sunset with those. Not sure about you status for Barber though and if we could get 2-3 of the bottom list would be a mircle, but this staff has the recruiting horsepower to get'r done.

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Top 12 + Carl, I'm happy.

Top 12 + Carl and Ruben, I'm VERY happy.

Top 12 + Carl, Ruben, and Derrick, I'm ecstatic.

Top 13 + Carl, Ruben, Derrick, and Monty I'm out of my mind.

Anything else is bonus.

I could go along with this.

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Top 12 + Carl, I'm happy.

Top 12 + Carl and Ruben, I'm VERY happy.

Top 12 + Carl, Ruben, and Derrick, I'm ecstatic.

Top 13 + Carl, Ruben, Derrick, and Monty I'm out of my mind.

Anything else is bonus.

I could go along with this.

Agreed...I personally want to move into that 'bonus' category but based upon the short recruiting year w/ coaching changes and all, this haul is pretty damn good.

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Stars notwithstanding, a huge problem with that worst case scenario in the traditional Gus Malzahn offense is no player on Auburn's entire roster will be respected by opposing defenses as both a ball runner from scrimmage AND and respected receiver coming out of the backfield (i.e. worthy of coverage). We had that with Jovon Robinson before he didn't qulaify and that's a HUGE, glaring puzzle piece for Gusball. Wilkins is a solid candidate to be that player. The other target RBs are pure hand off runners.

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Stars notwithstanding, a huge problem with that worst case scenario in the traditional Gus Malzahn offense is no player on Auburn's entire roster will be respected by opposing defenses as both a ball runner from scrimmage AND and respected receiver coming out of the backfield (i.e. worthy of coverage). We had that with Jovon Robinson before he didn't qulaify and that's a HUGE, glaring puzzle piece for Gusball. Wilkins is a solid candidate to be that player. The other target RBs are pure hand off runners.

Well, they better learn to respect it or they'll get it rammed down their throat(which I prefer anyway)

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Stars notwithstanding, a huge problem with that worst case scenario in the traditional Gus Malzahn offense is no player on Auburn's entire roster will be respected by opposing defenses as both a ball runner from scrimmage AND and respected receiver coming out of the backfield (i.e. worthy of coverage). We had that with Jovon Robinson before he didn't qulaify and that's a HUGE, glaring puzzle piece for Gusball. Wilkins is a solid candidate to be that player. The other target RBs are pure hand off runners.

I think Grant is a very good receiver, not getting much talk but he is a perfect fit for Gus' Offense

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Stars notwithstanding, a huge problem with that worst case scenario in the traditional Gus Malzahn offense is no player on Auburn's entire roster will be respected by opposing defenses as both a ball runner from scrimmage AND and respected receiver coming out of the backfield (i.e. worthy of coverage). We had that with Jovon Robinson before he didn't qulaify and that's a HUGE, glaring puzzle piece for Gusball. Wilkins is a solid candidate to be that player. The other target RBs are pure hand off runners.

Those assertions can not be made unless someone attended their games or practices. With CAP on his ESPN profile in his traits section it says he has good hands so I dount he is purely a handoff runner. And if you watch his highlights on hudi you will see he catches the ball. A scouting report from Chad Simmons on Peyton Barber, "A hidden strength of his is how he catches the ball. He can be productive in numerous ways on the next level." There are 2 other Backs Iron man did not mention and it is likely Auburn gets one of them. Corn Elder and Johnathan Ford. Chad Simmons on Elder, "he can catch the ball out of the backfield."
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its hudl with an "L", not an " i "....correct? I see many people referring to it as hudi. It's a cutesy name for a website playing on the word "huddle".

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its hudl with an "L", not an " i "....correct? I see many people referring to it as hudi. It's a cutesy name for a website playing on the word "huddle".

WOW! You are correct.
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Call me a negative Nancy, but this 2013 class is probably going to be a top 20 class at best and near the bottom of an SEC class for this year, with one possible exception; Jr College players.

With the terrible product we put on the field last year, coupled with a late coaching change, that definitely puts us behind the 8 ball.

The good news is we have an exemplary new coaching staff and major improvements on the 2013 season will change all that.

We just lost Liner and others will probably follow. Hope we keep some of our top prospects and Foster comes back into the fold, but does not look like we will get our top targets right now.

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Call me a negative Nancy, but this 2013 class is probably going to be a top 20 class at best and near the bottom of an SEC class for this year, with one possible exception; Jr College players.

With the terrible product we put on the field last year, coupled with a late coaching change, that definitely puts us behind the 8 ball.

The good news is we have an exemplary new coaching staff and major improvements on the 2013 season will change all that.

We just lost Liner and others will probably follow. Hope we keep some of our top prospects and Foster comes back into the fold, but does not look like we will get our top targets right now.

Will be a top 15 class and likely only lose 1 more commit.
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