Making the Play

[StatTiger 3,188]

Kiehl Frazier finished the A-Day game with a QB rating of 148.7 and Jonathan Wallace checked in at 148.6. A closer look at both quarterbacks reveals Wallace had the better game, when it counted. On 3rd down, Wallace converted 5 of 9 third down situations (55.6%), throwing the football, while Frazier converted 2 of 7 (28.6%). With Wallace primarily facing the No. 1 defense, his conversion rate really stands out in comparison. Wallace attempted 26 passes, generating 5 plays of 15-yards or more and Frazier had 2 of 16 attempts. In terms of generating impact plays, Wallace had the better ratio.

The play...

On this play, the Auburn offense faces a 3rd & 6 situation. The Tigers respond with a 4-WR look, with Dimitri Reese and Sammie Coates split to the boundary side. Just before the snap, Reese will motion inside of Coates, now becoming the slot man. This now places the CB on that side, covering Coates and the CB is backed off the line, further than the safety covering Reese.

At the snap, Reese will run what appears to be a dig route but will cut it back towards the sideline. Coates will run a square-in route over Reese. With the CB playing off Coates, Sammie is able to drive him down field, before making his cut inside. With Reese cutting his dig route into an out route, it creates a nice passing lane for Wallace.

Wallace steps up in the pocket (good pass protection) and fires his pass into Coates, who is tightly covered. The play picks up 12-yards and a first down for the offense. Last season, Wallace attempted only 80 passes but 24 of them resulted in a gain of 15-yards or more. This factors out to 1 every 3.3 attempts, higher than Cam Newton's ratio of 1 every 4.3 attempts during 2010.

This is not to say Wallace is a better quarterback than Newton but he has shown he is more likely to go vertical than most quarterbacks, which will be big in Gus Malzahn's offense. Malzahn's offense is designed to generate impact plays and the Tigers need a quarterback who can exploit it. Though Wallace is still working his way through improving his mechanics and footwork, his style of play fits this offense well.

On a side note, Frazier had two deep passes dropped and does throw a better deep ball than Wallace. Sometimes it's not always about mechanics and arm strength but a mental attitude of wanting to attack the opposing secondary.

[marshallcotiger 0]

My issue with Wallace is his ability to throw the ball down field accurately. He had 2 wide open wr's early in the game and grossly under threw both of them. His other two somewhat deep passes were to a wide open Fulse for a TD and a nice TD throw to Reese that most likely would have been a sack if the QB's were live.

My issue's with Kiehl are his ability to consistently throw touch passes and making quicker decisions. In addition to the 2 drops he also had 2 comeback routes at the 1st down marker where the the throw seemed good but the timing was way off.

I have no idea which is easier fixed but the ability to stretch the field vertically and horizontally are both big parts of Malzahn's offense and neither of the QB's showed they could do both.

[StatTiger 3,188]

My issue with Wallace is his ability to throw the ball down field accurately. He had 2 wide open wr's early in the game and grossly under threw both of them. His other two somewhat deep passes were to a wide open Fulse for a TD and a nice TD throw to Reese that most likely would have been a sack if the QB's were live.

Valid point on Wallace but for now, I'm happy he has the mindset to challenge the defense vertically.

During the 2011 season, Auburn's pass offense threw intermediate and long range passes 34.2% of the time.

During 2010, Cam Newton went intermediate and long 53.8% of the time.

During the 2012 season, Frazier and Moseley went vertical 39.7% of the time combined but Wallace went vertical 53.8% of the time.

During the 2011 season, opposing defenses began to place all 11 defenders within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage because they knew AU ran the ball 80% of the time on 1st down and threw within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage over 61% of the time. During the 2010 season, if the opposing defense began to cheat up on the line, Newton was going to throw intermediate and long range passes more than half the time, which pushed the safeties back.

I like the fact Wallace is looking down field but as you pointed out, he needs to improve his accuracy. Last season he completed 39.5% of his intermediate and long range passes. This was actually better than Barrett Trotters 2011 pct of 36.1% but well below Newton's completion pct of 52.0%.

I agree the screen game is important and clearly serves a purpose but I value the vertical game even more because that's where the majority of impact plays are made in the pass-offense. It also keeps the running game alive because defenses can no longer sell out to stop the run in fear of giving up something over the top. If Auburn gets to the point where 60% or more of their pass attempts are within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage, there is no way the offense can reach it's full potential.

[johnjacob 44]

My issue with Wallace is his ability to throw the ball down field accurately. He had 2 wide open wr's early in the game and grossly under threw both of them. His other two somewhat deep passes were to a wide open Fulse for a TD and a nice TD throw to Reese that most likely would have been a sack if the QB's were live.

My issue's with Kiehl are his ability to consistently throw touch passes and making quicker decisions. In addition to the 2 drops he also had 2 comeback routes at the 1st down marker where the the throw seemed good but the timing was way off.

I have no idea which is easier fixed but the ability to stretch the field vertically and horizontally are both big parts of Malzahn's offense and neither of the QB's showed they could do both.

I haven't seen the 2nd half yet, but KF did improve after CAP made the one handed catch. Before that his screen passes were bad, but afterward they were good, but as I said I haven't seen the 2nd half yet. I know one of Wallace's TD was not vs 1st string bc Van Gorder was in the game.

[marshallcotiger 0]

What yardage do you define as intermediate and long and what in your opinion is the minimum distance Wallace needs to be able to throw accurately without limiting the offenses design?

[marshallcotiger 0]

My issue with Wallace is his ability to throw the ball down field accurately. He had 2 wide open wr's early in the game and grossly under threw both of them. His other two somewhat deep passes were to a wide open Fulse for a TD and a nice TD throw to Reese that most likely would have been a sack if the QB's were live.

My issue's with Kiehl are his ability to consistently throw touch passes and making quicker decisions. In addition to the 2 drops he also had 2 comeback routes at the 1st down marker where the the throw seemed good but the timing was way off.

I have no idea which is easier fixed but the ability to stretch the field vertically and horizontally are both big parts of Malzahn's offense and neither of the QB's showed they could do both.

I haven't seen the 2nd half yet, but KF did improve after CAP made the one handed catch. Before that his screen passes were bad, but afterward they were good, but as I said I haven't seen the 2nd half yet. I know one of Wallace's TD was not vs 1st string bc Van Gorder was in the game.

Ricardo Louis deserves as much blame as Kiehl because he totally whiffed on his block but he threw another high screen to Reese that resulted in a concussion.

[StatTiger 3,188]

What yardage do you define as intermediate and long and what in your opinion is the minimum distance Wallace needs to be able to throw accurately without limiting the offenses design?

11-20 intermediate

21-up long

In terms of the deep ball, the longest pass Chris Todd completed "in the air" covered 39-yards during the 2009 season. It's nice to have a QB with the ability to throw the ball 50-70 yards but this offense can generate plenty of deep balls with a QB, who can accurately throw deep within 40-yards. Timing is more the key in terms of hitting the receiver in stride and allowing him the opportunity to gain YAC. Wallace has enough arm strength to duplicate what Todd did but accuracy is the key.

Breaking down the numbers, AU needs the starting QB to complete 50-60% of his passes 11-20 yards down field and at least 25 percent of his passes 21 yards and up.

[marshallcotiger 0]

Thanks Stat. It's been said many times before but I'll say it again....you da man.

[oldman 23]

Thanks Stat. It's been said many times before but I'll say it again....you da man.

[Dixie1860 27]

Thanks for all of this Stat, wouldn't have ever known most of the things in your posts without your having pointed it out.

[StatTiger 3,188]

This season, watch for the number of plays of 15-yards or more or plays I like to call, "impact plays". For every impact play gained running the ball, there is normally 2-3, throwing the ball. Since 1992, Auburn has averaged an impact play in the passing game, every 5.6 attempts. Based on that ratio, Auburn has won 81 percent of their games with a ratio of 5.6 or better, when it comes to plays of 15-yards or more.

Completion percentage is nice but I want a QB that can make "impact" plays. This is why the intermediate routes are the most important in terms of generating "impact plays". For every pass attempted beyond 20-yards of the line of scrimmage there are 2 attempted within 11-20 yards of the line of scrimmage.

Dameyune Craig only completed about 53 percent of his passes in 1997 but he generated 83 impact plays, throwing the football, which was more than any AU quarterback the last 25 seasons. Those impact plays were what kept Auburn in ball games, despite lacking a running game that year.

Looking at the numbers over the past 20 years, I have found the magic number or statistical goal for "impact" plays is 8. Auburn has won 83% of it's games with at least 8 impact plays. Malzahn was 17-1 at Auburn with at least 8 impact plays.

Over the past 4 years, 191 of Auburn's 238 scoring drives had at least 1 impact play during the drive.

This is why I focus on where AU QB's are targeting the ball and which one has the highest ratio for creating impact plays. Cam Newton was responsible for 96 impact plays in 2010. He had 64 passing, 36 rushing and 2 receiving. This is why I hope that Nick Marshall pans out because he is such a dynamic player, who can generate 15-yard plays passing and throwing.

[Turtle_Tiger 13]

Thanks for all the info Stat!

[stealthyfan 124]

I love the progress CGM & Co are making. As you point out very clearly here it is difficult to move the ball when you don't pass beyond the yard markers. CGM & Co are changing that but there will be gaps this season.

At the same time Auburn is making the right moves and will become competitive due to the speed of those changes, everyone else in the toughest Division of the toughest League are improving too. IMO this year will be a growth year and bowling will be there, it'll be in December however.

2014 will be extremely better.

[AU-24 3,135]

This season, watch for the number of plays of 15-yards or more or plays I like to call, "impact plays". For every impact play gained running the ball, there is normally 2-3, throwing the ball. Since 1992, Auburn has averaged an impact play in the passing game, every 5.6 attempts. Based on that ratio, Auburn has won 81 percent of their games with a ratio of 5.6 or better, when it comes to plays of 15-yards or more.

Completion percentage is nice but I want a QB that can make "impact" plays. This is why the intermediate routes are the most important in terms of generating "impact plays". For every pass attempted beyond 20-yards of the line of scrimmage there are 2 attempted within 11-20 yards of the line of scrimmage.

Dameyune Craig only completed about 53 percent of his passes in 1997 but he generated 83 impact plays, throwing the football, which was more than any AU quarterback the last 25 seasons. Those impact plays were what kept Auburn in ball games, despite lacking a running game that year.

Looking at the numbers over the past 20 years, I have found the magic number or statistical goal for "impact" plays is 8. Auburn has won 83% of it's games with at least 8 impact plays. Malzahn was 17-1 at Auburn with at least 8 impact plays.

Over the past 4 years, 191 of Auburn's 238 scoring drives had at least 1 impact play during the drive.

This is why I focus on where AU QB's are targeting the ball and which one has the highest ratio for creating impact plays. Cam Newton was responsible for 96 impact plays in 2010. He had 64 passing, 36 rushing and 2 receiving. This is why I hope that Nick Marshall pans out because he is such a dynamic player, who can generate 15-yard plays passing and throwing.

Awesome stuff, thanks!

[oracle79 3,569]

This is why I hope that Nick Marshall pans out because he is such a dynamic player, who can generate 15-yard plays passing and throwing.

Did you mean to say passing and running? It makes more sense to me if that is what you meant.

[StatTiger 3,188]

This is why I hope that Nick Marshall pans out because he is such a dynamic player, who can generate 15-yard plays passing and throwing.

Did you mean to say passing and running? It makes more sense to me if that is what you meant.

I did or you could have read it as "passing" defenders down field on his feet.

[minister of music 1]

I just shook my head,not with disgust,but with resignation. Neither QB impressed,neither looked like a SEC QB ready to lead his team. This team will get better,but not with these 2 at QB. Just my thoughts,as i appreciate both Kiehl and Wallace and their efforts and dedication.

[Best5zach 2]

Good work! Very similar to my thoughts. Wallace was better when it mattered.

http://best5zach.blogspot.com/2013/04/the-auburn-realist-auburn-day-qb.html?m=0

[WarEagle1983 2,195]

My issue with Wallace is his ability to throw the ball down field accurately. He had 2 wide open wr's early in the game and grossly under threw both of them. His other two somewhat deep passes were to a wide open Fulse for a TD and a nice TD throw to Reese that most likely would have been a sack if the QB's were live.

My issue's with Kiehl are his ability to consistently throw touch passes and making quicker decisions. In addition to the 2 drops he also had 2 comeback routes at the 1st down marker where the the throw seemed good but the timing was way off.

I have no idea which is easier fixed but the ability to stretch the field vertically and horizontally are both big parts of Malzahn's offense and neither of the QB's showed they could do both.

We'd be in business if we could combine them into 1 QB! Ugh! :-\

[WarEagle1983 2,195]

What yardage do you define as intermediate and long and what in your opinion is the minimum distance Wallace needs to be able to throw accurately without limiting the offenses design?

11-20 intermediate

21-up long

In terms of the deep ball, the longest pass Chris Todd completed "in the air" covered 39-yards during the 2009 season. It's nice to have a QB with the ability to throw the ball 50-70 yards but this offense can generate plenty of deep balls with a QB, who can accurately throw deep within 40-yards. Timing is more the key in terms of hitting the receiver in stride and allowing him the opportunity to gain YAC. Wallace has enough arm strength to duplicate what Todd did but accuracy is the key.

Breaking down the numbers, AU needs the starting QB to complete 50-60% of his passes 11-20 yards down field and at least 25 percent of his passes 21 yards and up.

Agree 100%. That's why i think the fact JW can't throw the ball 60-70yards gets exaggerated as why he couldn't start. For me, I just want to move the chains! JW has a decent enough arm to keep the D honest IMO. Both QBs are not very accurate anyway so i would rather see either QB throw intermediate passes than set our WRs up as hitting targets on screens. I get what the screens are designed to do within the offense i just don't care for how frequent we call them. If the starter is KF or JW i'd prefer they be in a position to make quick decisions throwing the ball and if it's not there...throw it away or tuck it and run. The WRs are going to have to step up and help either JW or KF...make the easy and tough catches; use their skills and get some YAC.