Notes on Auburn Pass-Offense

[StatTiger 3,188]

• Auburn is currently ranked No. 36 nationally with a 152.4 rating.
  

• No. 55 on first down with a 144.5 rating. (Auburn must improve on this ranking going into the meat of the schedule.)
  

• No. 117 nationally on first down, completing only 50% of passes. (This is really poor but can be addressed by more high-percentage passes than the vertical routes we have seen through the first 3 games.)
  

• No. 18 nationally on third-down with a rating of 168.8.
  

• No. 8 nationally in converting third-downs into first downs or TD's. (This is huge and more of a vital sign of success on third-down than efficiency rating.)
  

• Breaking it down by quarter: Auburn is No. 5 in pass-efficiency during the first quarter, No. 96 during the second quarter, No. 81 during the third and No. 20 during the fourth quarter.
  

• Auburn is No. 19 nationally in generating 15+ yard passes and No. 24 in generating 25+ yard plays. Too much attention placed on completion percentage in my opinion. Nick Marshall is never going to be a 65-70 percent passer. The key for Auburn is generating impact and explosive plays to go along with their powerful running game.
  

• Last season Nick Marshall completed only 28 percent of his passes beyond 20-yards of the line of scrimmage. The goal was to push it up to 40-45 percent in 2014. Through 3 games, it has dropped to 18 percent. This is an area Auburn must improve upon to get through their brutal schedule ahead. Take away the 3 dropped passes and Marshall is hitting at 45.4%
  

• D'haquille Williams has lived up to his hype. Of his 21 receptions, 15 have resulted in a first down or touchdown. He also has 9 impact plays and is on pace to be the best WR in the last 25-years, when it comes to impact plays.
  

• Ricardo Louis and Sammie Coates need to step up their production. They have been targeted a combined 23 times. They have caught 9 passes with only 1 play over 15-yards. Williams has been targeted 27 times, catching 21 of which 9 have been impact plays.
  

• C.J. Uzomah has been thrown to only 3 times this season. Utilizing the TE and RB's in the passing game would be a great solution when opponents sell out to defend the run. It would also give Marshall an opportunity to improve his completion percentage and confidence. Those swing passes to the backs is almost open on every play.
  

• One of the reasons for Marshall's low completion percentage this season is the number of vertical passes attempted. Last season 49.8% of his pass attempts were within 5-yards of the line of scrimmage. This season its only 28.6%.
  

• Last season the average distance of Auburn's pass-impact plays was 31.6 yards. This was the best average over the past 25 years of Auburn football. This season it has dropped to 25.6 yards.
  

• The OL has done a great job in pass-protection. Auburn's QB's have been sacked only 1 time this season during 76 pass attempts.
  

Last season there were too many missed opportunities in long pass-plays because of dropped passes or accuracy issues. It appears that trend has carried over into 2014. Auburn has too much talent on the field to be missing out on those big-play opportunities. I'm referring to the wide open plays, when there is busted coverage and its a simple matter of completing the pass.

[juscAUse 1]

I see the backs open almost the whole game, also, Stat. I hesitate to post anything when I see something cause some of you guys have forgotten more football than I know. And I'm sure Gus has. You think the rbs and TE are something to look for in two weeks,maybe?

[McLoofus 35,182]

I see the backs open almost the whole game, also, Stat. I hesitate to post anything when I see something cause some of you guys have forgotten more football than I know. And I'm sure Gus has. You think the rbs and TE are something to look for in two weeks,maybe?

I think CAP earned a lot of trust in that department against KSU with some really nifty catches. Also, I think Marshall is maybe going all the way through his progressions and checking down more than in the past. Maybe that's just my perception, but I think you might be right.

[rbrigby 0]

Why do you think there is a loss of production in the 2nd and 3rd quarters?

[AUbritt 611]

Cool stats, Stat!

Don't know if y'all saw this article providing some insight into NM's pass distribution; but I found it interesting.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,660]

Why do you think there is a loss of production in the 2nd and 3rd quarters?

From what I've seen the play calling hits a lull in the third quarter, and that's honestly been the case since at least the Mississippi State (the 2nd quarter wasn't too hot then either). You can note these third quarter failures for halftime adjustments via the opponent, but this happens almost every game against real competition.

Pretty crushing reality: Nick Marshall is never going to be a 65-70 percent passer. I would like to see Marshall in an air raid/vertical offense for one series since he's not gonna be accurate

[IronMan70 3,277]

No, Nick will never be a 65-70% passer, as long as we are dropping a lot of passes. I am of the opinion that any evaluation of a QB should begin with his passes thrown into the catch zone (catch zone throws = completions + drops). In addition to that, Gus also looks at the lazy routes, the incorrect routes and the tipped passes on the OL. That is why Gus is and has been saying Nick is throwing the ball well, because Nick is doing just that.

So while the casual fan will look at only a completion %, or a dramatic long ball play that may fall incomplete to draw a conclusion, that does not tell the overall story. Last week's game is a perfect example. Depending on where you draw the line, there were either 5 or 6 dropped passes. I will use 5.

17 completions in 31 attempts = 54.83 % completion rate

+5 drops after hitting WRs right in the hands

22 catch zone passes in 31 attempts = 70.96 % catch zone rate

Nick continues to throw a very high % of his passes into the catch zone. You can't expect much more than that from the passing phase of your QB's game. Of course in the run phase, Nick also brings his own run ability, his ball ball handling ability, his run option read ability and most importantly his ability to perform under pressure when the game is on the line.

[Dom1ni0n 51]

• C.J. Uzomah has been thrown to only 3 times this season. Utilizing the TE and RB's in the passing game would be a great solution when opponents sell out to defend the run. It would also give Marshall an opportunity to improve his completion percentage and confidence. Those swing passes to the backs is almost open on every play.
  

• One of the reasons for Marshall's low completion percentage this season is the number of vertical passes attempted. Last season 49.8% of his pass attempts were within 5-yards of the line of scrimmage. This season its only 28.6%.
  

I was really expecting to see Uzomah targeted more involved in the passing game at this point, particularly in crossing patterns over the middle or slant routes. From what I have gathered viewing games last season and up until now, it appears Marshall's tends to target CJ more in the red zone, usually on the streak routes down the sideline.

Hitting those swing routes are crucial to staying ahead of the chains and maintaining the tempo; all of which could immensely contribute to stymieing defenses with play calling and tiring them earlier in games.

[leglessdan 1,934]

No, Nick will never be a 65-70% passer, as long as we are dropping a lot of passes. I am of the opinion that any evaluation of a QB should begin with his passes thrown into the catch zone (catch zone throws = completions + drops). In addition to that, Gus also looks at the lazy routes, the incorrect routes and the tipped passes on the OL. That is why Gus is and has been saying Nick is throwing the ball well, because Nick is doing just that.

So while the casual fan will look at only a completion %, or the dramatic long ball play that may fall incomplete and draw a conclusion, that does not tell the overall story. Last week's game is a perfect example. Depending on where you draw the line, there were either 5 or 6 dropped passes. I will use 5.

19 completions in 31 attempts = 61.29 % completion rate

+5 drops

24 in catch zone in 31 attempts = 77.42 % catch zone rate

Nick continues to throw a very high % of his passes into the catch zone. You can't expect much than that from the passing phase of your QB's game. Of course Nick also brings his own run ability in the run phase, his ball ball handling ability, his run option read ability and most importantly his ability to perform under pressure when the game is on the line.

Well said...The glaring overthrows are one thing, but in catching distance is another. That's what distinguishes a great WR from average is being a baller and working for your QB. Look at these guys in the NFL. ...rarely are passes perfect but the guys work for the tough catches. Our guys have the ability....but the constant harping on Nick is silly when you factor the other elements. It's just easier to pile on the QB.

[WarEagle84 0]

...but the constant harping on Nick is silly when you factor the other elements. It's just easier to pile on the QB.

Especially when you have a QB with NFL talent sitting on the bench.

[leglessdan 1,934]

...but the constant harping on Nick is silly when you factor the other elements. It's just easier to pile on the QB.

Especially when you have a QB with NFL talent sitting on the bench.

If the WR drop balls or dont fight for catches and the OL doesn't engage the DL long enough. ..you will see similar results. Like I said. ..it's easy to single out the QB. It's the fan favorite scapegoat. This is a team sport though. ..it takes all the moving parts working in unison to be a championship caliber team. I see lots of talk about Cam this and Cam that..well Cam wouldn't have been able to be a great as he was either without the team he had around him. Nick has his flaws...they all do. His strength is running the football, but he's not a "horrible" passer. At the end of the day if you count all the dropped passes and tough catches not made...he is at least at 60+% passer. Combine that with his running ability and it's a recipe for success.

[McLoofus 35,182]

...but the constant harping on Nick is silly when you factor the other elements. It's just easier to pile on the QB.

Especially when you have a QB with NFL talent sitting on the bench.

If the WR drop balls or dont fight for catches and the OL doesn't engage the DL long enough. ..you will see similar results. Like I said. ..it's easy to single out the QB. It's the fan favorite scapegoat. This is a team sport though. ..it takes all the moving parts working in unison to be a championship caliber team. I see lots of talk about Cam this and Cam that..well Cam wouldn't have been able to be a great as he was either without the team he had around him. Nick has his flaws...they all do. His strength is running the football, but he's not a "horrible" passer. At the end of the day if you count all the dropped passes and tough catches not made...he is at least at 60+% passer. Combine that with his running ability and it's a recipe for success.

Great post.

[AUbritt 611]

Joel A. Erickson has a good article on this topic today. Here are some excerpts:

"I (try not to) pay any attention to it," Marshall said. "It motivates me. I hear it, or people hear about it and tell me, and I just keep that in the back of my head."

The rest of his teammates and coaches have trouble understanding the origin of the criticism.

In 16 games as Auburn's quarterback, Marshall is 14-2, with four fourth-quarter comebacks to his name. When the game's on the line, the rest of Auburn's sideline always turns to Marshall.

"I know, for whatever reason, the focus is always on our quarterback and what's wrong with Nick?" Auburn coach Gus Malzahn said. "There's not a whole lot wrong with Nick."

No matter what his critics say.

The whole thing is worth a read, IMO.

[McLoofus 35,182]

Joel A. Erickson has a good article on this topic today. Here are some excerpts:

"I (try not to) pay any attention to it," Marshall said. "It motivates me. I hear it, or people hear about it and tell me, and I just keep that in the back of my head."

The rest of his teammates and coaches have trouble understanding the origin of the criticism.

In 16 games as Auburn's quarterback, Marshall is 14-2, with four fourth-quarter comebacks to his name. When the game's on the line, the rest of Auburn's sideline always turns to Marshall.

"I know, for whatever reason, the focus is always on our quarterback and what's wrong with Nick?" Auburn coach Gus Malzahn said. "There's not a whole lot wrong with Nick."

No matter what his critics say.

The whole thing is worth a read, IMO.

Thanks for posting. I like and agree with the part about going through his progressions this year. Those two passes to CAP against KSU really got me fired up and encouraged for the rest of the season. Perhaps I'm just not remembering correctly, but I feel like we didn't see much of that last year or the first two games of this season.

[AUbritt 611]

Joel A. Erickson has a good article on this topic today. Here are some excerpts:

"I (try not to) pay any attention to it," Marshall said. "It motivates me. I hear it, or people hear about it and tell me, and I just keep that in the back of my head."

The rest of his teammates and coaches have trouble understanding the origin of the criticism.

In 16 games as Auburn's quarterback, Marshall is 14-2, with four fourth-quarter comebacks to his name. When the game's on the line, the rest of Auburn's sideline always turns to Marshall.

"I know, for whatever reason, the focus is always on our quarterback and what's wrong with Nick?" Auburn coach Gus Malzahn said. "There's not a whole lot wrong with Nick."

No matter what his critics say.

The whole thing is worth a read, IMO.

Thanks for posting. I like and agree with the part about going through his progressions this year. Those two passes to CAP against KSU really got me fired up and encouraged for the rest of the season. Perhaps I'm just not remembering correctly, but I feel like we didn't see much of that last year or the first two games of this season.

Yep -- I really want us to take advantage of CAP's receiving skills, as well as Uzomah.

[rbrigby 0]

No, Nick will never be a 65-70% passer, as long as we are dropping a lot of passes. I am of the opinion that any evaluation of a QB should begin with his passes thrown into the catch zone (catch zone throws = completions + drops). In addition to that, Gus also looks at the lazy routes, the incorrect routes and the tipped passes on the OL. That is why Gus is and has been saying Nick is throwing the ball well, because Nick is doing just that.

So while the casual fan will look at only a completion %, or a dramatic long ball play that may fall incomplete to draw a conclusion, that does not tell the overall story. Last week's game is a perfect example. Depending on where you draw the line, there were either 5 or 6 dropped passes. I will use 5.

19 completions in 31 attempts = 61.29 % completion rate

+5 drops after hitting WRs right in the hands

24 catch zone passes in 31 attempts = 77.42 % catch zone rate

Nick continues to throw a very high % of his passes into the catch zone. You can't expect much more than that from the passing phase of your QB's game. Of course in the run phase, Nick also brings his own run ability, his ball ball handling ability, his run option read ability and most importantly his ability to perform under pressure when the game is on the line.

If you count the 2 batted balls at the LOS, when the WR was open and the overall timing of the route and throw appeared to be good, NM would be at 26 of 31 (84%) and we would have scored a lot of points. Football is a team sport and the WRs and OL in the first half did not help NM and the passing game. We catch those passes and don't allow the batted balls (keep the DL's hands down with aggressive OL play) and the running lanes would have opened up for CAP and Grant bc Snyder would have had to compensate for what our passing game was doing to him but 8 missed opportunities played big in letting KSU hang around. NM had a low throw to Quan at the sideline, a nicely defended pass in the early game intended for Sammie, 2 overthrows to Sammie on deep balls (one by inches and a healthy Sammie gets to that one), and the one where he and Sammie weren't on the same page (floated down the left sideline when Sammie went to the Post not expecting the ball). I thought NM played very well. Snyder and KSU had a great game plan for Auburn and executed very well. It was obvious to me that KSU has been pulling a Mullen and preparing for AU since springball, 2 cupcakes on their schedule and the lack of intensity against Iowa State allowing them the chance to prepare solely for our visit. We weathered the storm bc of NM and the passing attack.

[McLoofus 35,182]

Yep -- I really want us to take advantage of CAP's receiving skills, as well as Uzomah.

Sleeping giant, methinks.

[Randman5000 4,226]

Yep -- I really want us to take advantage of CAP's receiving skills, as well as Uzomah.

Sleeping giant, methinks.

If CJ was in a pass oriented offense, I think he gets nfl attention.

[AURex 1,993]

Thanks, Stat. I always like (and benefit from) your analyses.

19 completions in 31 attempts = 61.29 % completion rate

I love numbers. Let's get the numbers right. Against KSU, NM was 17 of 31, completing 54.8% of his passes. For the season so far, he's 31 of 56, for a completion rate of 55.4 percent.

Apparently, though, the consensus seems to be that the completion percentage for NM is totally irrelevant, so maybe it doesn't matter whether we get the numbers right or not. In fact why bother to look at the numbers at all? All that really matters is that he completes the one pass that wins the game, even if it is the only pass he completes during the entire game.

And if that is true for NM, then it should be true for the receivers as well, shouldn't it? It shouldn't matter how many balls they drop. Talking about receivers dropping passes is just player bashing. All that matters is whether a receiver makes the catch that wins the game.

Am I missing something here?

[leglessdan 1,934]

Thanks, Stat. I always like (and benefit from) your analyses.

19 completions in 31 attempts = 61.29 % completion rate

I love numbers. Let's get the numbers right. Against KSU, NM was 17 of 31, completing 54.8% of his passes. For the season so far, he's 31 of 56, for a completion rate of 55.4 percent.

Apparently, though, the consensus seems to be that the completion percentage for NM is totally irrelevant, so maybe it doesn't matter whether we get the numbers right or not. In fact why bother to look at the numbers at all? All that really matters is that he completes the one pass that wins the game, even if it is the only pass he completes during the entire game.

And if that is true for NM, then it should be true for the receivers as well, shouldn't it? It shouldn't matter how many balls they drop. Talking about receivers dropping passes is just player bashing. All that matters is whether a receiver makes the catch that wins the game.

Am I missing something here?

Yeah bud....you're missing quite a bit. And your cute little analogy about the WR making catches even further refutes the point you were trying to make.

[IronMan70 3,277]

Thanks, Stat. I always like (and benefit from) your analyses.

19 completions in 31 attempts = 61.29 % completion rate

I love numbers. Let's get the numbers right. Against KSU, NM was 17 of 31, completing 54.8% of his passes. For the season so far, he's 31 of 56, for a completion rate of 55.4 percent.

Apparently, though, the consensus seems to be that the completion percentage for NM is totally irrelevant, so maybe it doesn't matter whether we get the numbers right or not. In fact why bother to look at the numbers at all? All that really matters is that he completes the one pass that wins the game, even if it is the only pass he completes during the entire game.

And if that is true for NM, then it should be true for the receivers as well, shouldn't it? It shouldn't matter how many balls they drop. Talking about receivers dropping passes is just player bashing. All that matters is whether a receiver makes the catch that wins the game.

Am I missing something here?

Since it appears I made an error in transposing that one number let me officially correct the record. I have already done so in the OP which reads,

17 completions in 31 attempts = 54.83 % completion rate

+5 drops after hitting WRs right in the hands

22 catch zone passes in 31 attempts = 70.96 % catch zone rate

Now then, all you had to do was mention that. Instead you would rather make an attempt to play gotcha. That modification doesn't change the larger point of my post one iota. Nick is throwing a very large % of his passes into the catch zone.

You also say that the mere mention of WRs dropping passes is nothing but "player bashing", as you put it. Coaches Malzahn and Lashlee also mentioned dropped passes this week. Are they bashing players too ? You are mentioning NM throwing incomplete passes. Are you bashing players ? Yes, you missed a lot.

[AURex 1,993]

Anytime anyone talks about NM's passing, they get blasted for player bashing. I was merely reiterating what others seem to be saying -- that NM's completion percentage doesn't really matter. Which is absurd on the face of it. But since that is what most people here seem to be saying, why now jump on me for saying the same thing? And by extension, if it doesn't matter for NM, then why does it matter for the receivers? And why is it okay to blame the receivers for NM's incompletions? The same receivers seem to have little difficulty catching the passes of JJ, who is 15 of 20 (75%) to the same receivers.

I'm not bashing players. NM has thrown some off target passes and receivers have dropped some of his passes. It's a fact. But receivers have also made great catches of some of his errant passes. I'm simply pointing out the implications of what people here seem to be saying. Apparently that's a bad thing to do.

[Richard78 73]

Interesting article. Basically, the tighter the game, the higher NM's stats are. When we are losing by 7 or less Nick is 64.1%-10 TD-1 pick in 2013/14.

http://mrsec.com/art...games-are-close