Notes on pass offense

[StatTiger 2,972]

From 1993-2014, there have been only 5 seasons, where Auburn threw the football more on 3rd down than 1st down. Of those 5 seasons, 3 have occurred under Gus Malzahn, including this current season. Normally this would be a concern because you would rather have your quarterback throwing more on first down (when you want) than on third down (when you have to).

Because Auburn runs the ball over 78 percent of the time on first down, one would expect for there to be more pass attempts on third down. On face value, this is why I don't see an immediate concern with more pass attempts on third down than first down.

It should be noted that 36.7 percent of Auburn's pass attempts this season have come on third down, which is the second highest percentage of pass attempts on third down during the past 22 seasons. This is a slight concern and something to monitor moving forward.

From 1993-2014, 56.2 percent of Auburn's third-down plays have been pass-plays. Last season Auburn threw the football 43.0 percent of the time on third-down. This season Auburn is throwing the football 60.0 percent of the time on third-down, which is an obvious concern for a run-heavy offense. Fortunately for the Tigers, they have performed well on third-down, currently No. 2 nationally.

Auburn is currently No. 10 nationally and No. 2 in the SEC, converting 50 percent of their third-downs, throwing the football. If Auburn maintains this percentage, none of this will become a major issue.

Auburn is No. 58 in terms of the percentage of passing plays on third-down, which is a concern but could become a major issue, should Auburn begin to struggle throwing the football on third-down. Mississippi State is currently No. 9 nationally and No. 1 in the conference with the fewest pass attempts on third-down.

[aujeff11 6,243]

Throwing on third down is not a problem to me. Third and long and predictable situations are the biggest issues if you ask me

[AUmind 0]

Throwing on third down is not a problem to me. Third and long and predictable situations are the biggest issues if you ask me

YES YES just being 3rd and short gives you SO many more options and me less stress!!!

[Lowrider 0]

JJ is 7-7 on 3rd down. The only problem I see is loyalty related. Nick is 58% on 3rd down.

[Rednilla 4,701]

JJ is 7-7 on 3rd down. The only problem I see is loyalty related. Nick is 58% on 3rd down.

There's an old saying in football: the most popular player on any team is the backup quarterback.

Nick Marshall is 14-2 as the starter, and one of the two games Johnson started was tied at 21 before Marshall came in and led AU to 24 unanswered points, turning the game into a blowout. The other game JJ started was against Western Carolina last season.

So what's the problem, again?

[StatTiger 2,972]

JJ is 7-7 on 3rd down. The only problem I see is loyalty related. Nick is 58% on 3rd down.

Isolated stat.... Corey Grant has the best average per rush among the Auburn RB's. Should he be the starting RB? Quan Bray has a better average per reception than Duke Williams. Should he be starting over Duke?

[Dual-Threat Rigby 7,085]

JJ is 7-7 on 3rd down. The only problem I see is loyalty related. Nick is 58% on 3rd down.

There's an old saying in football: the most popular player on any team is the backup quarterback.

Nick Marshall is 14-2 as the starter, and one of the two games Johnson started was tied at 21 before Marshall came in and led AU to 24 unanswered points, turning the game into a blowout. The other game JJ started was against Western Carolina last season.

So what's the problem, again?

The defense also did get annihilated and there was NO running game under Jeremy because Malzahn didnt led the zone read happen.

[Tiger 8,492]

Our passing offense is much better with JJ in the game, hopefully nobody with at least one working eyeball is trying to dispute that.

[McLoofus 35,182]

Our passing offense is much better with JJ in the game, hopefully nobody with at least one working eyeball is trying to dispute that.

Sheesh. Here we go again.

We all know Jeremy Johnson is a better pure passer than Nick Marshall. It doesn't mean that he is the better quarterback and leader of our offense at this point.

[au75 75]

NM and JJ debate will not die this season on this board. IN GUS I TRUST.

[McLoofus 35,182]

NM and JJ debate will not die this season on this board. IN GUS I TRUST.

True. I'm naive (and probably wrong) to whine about it.

[Tiger 8,492]

Our passing offense is much better with JJ in the game, hopefully nobody with at least one working eyeball is trying to dispute that.

Sheesh. Here we go again.

We all know Jeremy Johnson is a better pure passer than Nick Marshall. It doesn't mean that he is the better quarterback and leader of our offense at this point.

Hey, not arguing with you there. the run game struggled vs Ark until NM came in. Just not understanding that some people think discussing a weakness in NM's game translates to "F*** Nick Marshall! He Sucks!" (not you McLoofus, just saying people get overly sensitive to some NM talk). It's just frustrating to see time and time again sure TDs not being connected on. That's all. I have no beef with NM being in the game, he is a freak athlete that puts immense pressure on defenses, and I, for one, am certainly not rooting for him to be replaced. It just sucks when points are left on the field due to poor execution in which the blame is on the QB's arm. But it is also clear that JJ is the better passing option. He is not in a position of leadership yet. This is NM's team.

Edited October 3, 2014 by Tiger

[WFE12 8,222]

Our passing offense is much better with JJ in the game, hopefully nobody with at least one working eyeball is trying to dispute that.

Sheesh. Here we go again.

We all know Jeremy Johnson is a better pure passer than Nick Marshall. It doesn't mean that he is the better quarterback and leader of our offense at this point.

Hey, not arguing with you there. the run game struggled vs Ark until NM came in. Just not understanding that some people think discussing a weakness in NM's game translates to "F*** Nick Marshall! He Sucks!" (not you McLoofus, just saying people get overly sensitive to some NM talk). It's just frustrating to see time and time again sure TDs not being connected on. That's all. I have no beef with NM being in the game, he is a freak athlete that puts immense pressure on defenses, and I, for one, am certainly not rooting for him to be replaced. It just sucks when points are left on the field due to poor execution in which the blame is on the QB's arm. But it is also clear that JJ is the better passing option. He is not in a position of leadership yet. This is NM's team.

mm hmm

[McLoofus 35,182]

Our passing offense is much better with JJ in the game, hopefully nobody with at least one working eyeball is trying to dispute that.

Sheesh. Here we go again.

We all know Jeremy Johnson is a better pure passer than Nick Marshall. It doesn't mean that he is the better quarterback and leader of our offense at this point.

Hey, not arguing with you there. the run game struggled vs Ark until NM came in. Just not understanding that some people think discussing a weakness in NM's game translates to "F*** Nick Marshall! He Sucks!" (not you McLoofus, just saying people get overly sensitive to some NM talk). It's just frustrating to see time and time again sure TDs not being connected on. That's all. I have no beef with NM being in the game, he is a freak athlete that puts immense pressure on defenses, and I, for one, am certainly not rooting for him to be replaced. It just sucks when points are left on the field due to poor execution in which the blame is on the QB's arm. But it is also clear that JJ is the better passing option. He is not in a position of leadership yet. This is NM's team.

Roger that. Totally agree. And, rereading your post that I originally responded to, I think I responded to something you didn't even really say... so if you want to lump me in with the oversensitive crowd, I don't suppose I have much defense

[Rednilla 4,701]

Our passing offense is much better with JJ in the game, hopefully nobody with at least one working eyeball is trying to dispute that.

Sheesh. Here we go again.

We all know Jeremy Johnson is a better pure passer than Nick Marshall. It doesn't mean that he is the better quarterback and leader of our offense at this point.

Hey, not arguing with you there. the run game struggled vs Ark until NM came in. Just not understanding that some people think discussing a weakness in NM's game translates to "F*** Nick Marshall! He Sucks!" (not you McLoofus, just saying people get overly sensitive to some NM talk). It's just frustrating to see time and time again sure TDs not being connected on. That's all. I have no beef with NM being in the game, he is a freak athlete that puts immense pressure on defenses, and I, for one, am certainly not rooting for him to be replaced. It just sucks when points are left on the field due to poor execution in which the blame is on the QB's arm. But it is also clear that JJ is the better passing option. He is not in a position of leadership yet. This is NM's team.

I don't know that I would even agree with that. I absolutely agree that he is the better pure passer, which I'm pretty sure is what you are saying, but I think the added run threat provided by Marshall opens up the passing game to more big plays, and the fact that Marshall has been making good decisions with where to throw the ball, and keeping it out of the defenders' reach (for the most part at least), balances the decrease in completion percentages. I'm not sure if that quite makes up for the overall difference, but the fact that the offense is more balanced overall with him in there does seem to suggest that the passing game would likely suffer as teams focused more in on it rather than the rushing attack.

In any case, though, we're in total agreement in that it's Nick's team and that JJ has plenty of capacity to take over if needs be, which is all that really matters anyway.

[AUinfusion 390]

I don't know that I would even agree with that. I absolutely agree that he is the better pure passer, which I'm pretty sure is what you are saying, but I think the added run threat provided by Marshall opens up the passing game to more big plays, and the fact that Marshall has been making good decisions with where to throw the ball, and keeping it out of the defenders' reach (for the most part at least), balances the decrease in completion percentages. I'm not sure if that quite makes up for the overall difference, but the fact that the offense is more balanced overall with him in there does seem to suggest that the passing game would likely suffer as teams focused more in on it rather than the rushing attack.

I really don't understand people working this hard to pretend that NM is something he is not. He is a great read option QB, maybe the best ever, but nothing about his passing game is particular great right now, and his running game does not make his passing game more dangerous b/c he still has accuracy issues. He is lucky that guys like Bray and Duke are going out and taking thar ball away from defenders, b/c he is still throwing to defender several times a game. Bray saved him twice last game. JJ has played about... three quarters(???) so far this year and is not far from doubling NM's QB rating. His yard per attempt are also close to double, and his completion percentage is about 1.5 time better. One reason the yards per attempt is bigger id b/c JJ typically hits WRs in stride, giving them a chance to make a big play. NM may be the best leader and option for this team, maybe by a large margin, but nothing about his passing game is better than what JJ brings to that aspect of the game.... to date. Now, no one will be happier than me if NM changes that tomorrow night and throws for 400 yards while running for another 200. I just feel it's unfair to both QBs to act like JJ doesn't bring anything to the table, or that NM should be looked at / graded as being as much of as a passing threat as a running threat.

[leglessdan 1,934]

Guess we're gonna beat the hell out of this dead horse for the entire season. Joy.

[Rednilla 4,701]

I don't know that I would even agree with that. I absolutely agree that he is the better pure passer, which I'm pretty sure is what you are saying, but I think the added run threat provided by Marshall opens up the passing game to more big plays, and the fact that Marshall has been making good decisions with where to throw the ball, and keeping it out of the defenders' reach (for the most part at least), balances the decrease in completion percentages. I'm not sure if that quite makes up for the overall difference, but the fact that the offense is more balanced overall with him in there does seem to suggest that the passing game would likely suffer as teams focused more in on it rather than the rushing attack.

I really don't understand people working this hard to pretend that NM is something he is not. He is a great read option QB, maybe the best ever, but nothing about his passing game is particular great right now, and his running game does not make his passing game more dangerous b/c he still has accuracy issues. He is lucky that guys like Bray and Duke are going out and taking thar ball away from defenders, b/c he is still throwing to defender several times a game. Bray saved him twice last game. JJ has played about... three quarters(???) so far this year and is not far from doubling NM's QB rating. His yard per attempt are also close to double, and his completion percentage is about 1.5 time better. One reason the yards per attempt is bigger id b/c JJ typically hits WRs in stride, giving them a chance to make a big play. NM may be the best leader and option for this team, maybe by a large margin, but nothing about his passing game is better than what JJ brings to that aspect of the game.... to date. Now, no one will be happier than me if NM changes that tomorrow night and throws for 400 yards while running for another 200. I just feel it's unfair to both QBs to act like JJ doesn't bring anything to the table, or that NM should be looked at / graded as being as much of as a passing threat as a running threat.

It isn't a matter of pretending Marshall is something he's not, I assure you. Rather, it is seeing the overall effect of what a successful running game can open up. Yes, having the receivers we do is a big part of that, no doubt, and they did in fact save him a few times last weekend, but even with the run game having been pretty successful in three of the four games, we haven't hit stride with it. Provided that we do, it will force defenses to come up more to guard against the run, and give the receivers more chance to get better separation from the guy covering them, which means the accuracy issue is not as big a factor.

By the way, I don't remember a whole lot of instances when the receivers saved Marshall in the first three games. That's not to say it didn't happen, nor is it to dispute the point of his accuracy/touch issues (because they definitely exist). Just remember, Malzahn praised Marshall's decision making after the K-State game. When he missed, it was like those two fly patterns where he overthrew Sammie; yes, a better pass would have almost certainly meant a big gain and/or a TD, but he made sure to put the ball where only his guy could get to it.

It also isn't to say that Johnson's superior passing skills (and yes, he does have superior passing skills) wouldn't open the running games in other ways with just a few tweaks in strategy. Rather, it is a reflection upon how the better the run game is, the more opportunities there will be in the passing game. Trust me, in no way am I meaning to degrade JJ, nor am I trying to make Nick out to be Joe Montana...I'm just pointing out that the better you are at one aspect of offense, the more it opens up the other.

Last year we led the nation in rushing, but we also had a receiver who was second in the nation in yards per catch. That's because the added focus on the run left Sammie in a lot of man-to-man situations, giving him a chance to run past the corner and/or get them turned around from their backpedal quickly enough that he could break off his route and be wide open. If we even approach the rushing success of last season, having Duke as well as Sammie will almost certainly start paying dividends through the air.

So yeah, I am in no way saying Marshall is a better passer, but instead that his ability to run loosens the pass defense more so than does the run game with Johnson in, thereby creating a situation where the passing game as a whole could, potentially, be as good or better with Nick in, despite him not having the arm JJ does.

Does that make more sense? I ask that honestly, because quite often my words don't come across the way I mean for them to...you don't have to agree if you don't want, I'm just a bit of a stickler for making sure that I get my meaning across, whether it is agreed upon or not.

[StatTiger 2,972]

IMO, Johnson is the better pure passer than Marshall but...

I have yet to see Johnson take Auburn on a game-winning drive.

I have yet to see him throw a pick and bounce back to finish a game strong.

I have yet to see him throw a game-winning TD pass.

I'm not saying he can't do the above things but we have already witness Marshall doing all these things. This is why he remains the starting quarterback.