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What kind of an opponent concerns you?


StatTiger

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Reflecting back to the Tuberville era, I was always concerned with teams that were physical. Basically it was teams that could run the football and play well on run-defense. The following numbers support this theory...

From 2000-2008, Auburn compiled a record of 13-10 vs. FBS teams with a combination of a top-40 run-offense and top-40 run-defense. When Auburn faced teams that were not top-40 run-offense and top-40 run-defense, the Tigers went 42-5.

Looking at the years Gus Malzahn has coached the Auburn offense, the concern becomes teams that can pass the ball and play solid run-defense. Look at the data from 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014...

When Auburn has faced teams with a top-40 pass-efficiency offense and top-40 run-defense combined, the Tigers are 6-6. When they have faced FBS opponents that were ranked below top-40 pass-offense and top-40 run-defense, Auburn is 22-4.

During this same time frame, Auburn is 10-7 vs. top-25 pass-efficiency offenses, allowing an average of 37 PPG. The Tigers are 32-5 vs. FBS opponents with a run-defense ranked below top-40, averaging 46 PPG.

Alabama is the only remaining opponent on this year's schedule that falls under top-40 pass-efficiency offense and top-40 run-defense. Alabama is currently No. 3 in PE-Offense and No. 2 vs. the run. Georgia is close to it, ranked No. 28 in PE-Offense and No. 49 vs. the run.

Thoughts?

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Alabama is the team that worries me. Their mode of attack has changed this year and it could exploit the Auburn secondary. If the pass rush can continue to operate the way they did against Ole Miss, then I think they can make Sims do what he doesn't want to do. Cooper is a true threat.

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Offensively, efficient mobile quarterbacks like Dak Prescott or Tahj Boyd with solid RBs behind them. Frankly, Alabama terrifies me this year.

We're going to find out what Alabama is made of over the next two weeks.
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Saw Luginbill give a breakdown of Sims's numbers in and out of the pocket this season. I think you guys would be surprised at the results. He's actually played much better when staying in the pocket.

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Offensively, efficient mobile quarterbacks like Dak Prescott or Tahj Boyd with solid RBs behind them. Frankly, Alabama terrifies me this year.

Exactly! Plus, perhaps add to that QB's who aren't known for their running but are certainly capable when the defense "forgets" about them.

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Nothing nullifies a good passing attack like a strong push up the middle. Our DL is going to have to step it up against A&M, UGA and Bammer. It wouldn't hust to continue our strong run defense against the likes of Gurley and the two Bammer backs.

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I don't know why Alabama would scare anyone. They're just a watered down version of what they were last year (not as efficient offense, not as physical on defense). Teams like Ole Miss and even South Carolina scared me more

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I don't know why Alabama would scare anyone. They're just a watered down version of what they were last year (not as efficient offense, not as physical on defense). Teams like Ole Miss and even South Carolina scared me more

They have improved their passing attack and it's more diversified than it was before.
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From the pass few games, alabama is clicking at the right time. They have deficiencies yes, but they definitely worry me the most, really more than any other team we'd even play in the playoff if we get by them.

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The team to dread:

Offense:

Strong pass protection from O-Line that can give the QB time to find the open man.

Patient QB that has the maturity to wait for an opening and the accuracy to get it there.

Flexible coaching staff that knows when to call wheel routes, when to hit the TE slant across the middle and when to gamble long.

Anything resembling a Speedy Noil coupled with the 3 attributes above.

Defense:

Strong middle D-line and fast lateral movement to counter AU's running game.

Man2man able to negate the Coates Effect therefore allowing for extra defensive coverage against Marshall keepers or wheels.

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The teams that are most difficult to defend are the ones that run and throw it with equally effective. That is why GA, Bama and LSU have given us fits the last six years. Don't think GA scares me with the pass and Bama with the run that much this year. As long as AU doesn't turn the ball over i think we can win both games. The turnover bug did not hurt us against Ole Miss, but the penalties almost did. Eliminate the penalties, keep turnovers to none or one and i like our chances.

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Any school that gives over 35 full scholarships concerns me. We have a habit of making all opponents look good...but fortunately, not quite good enough to beat us.....which has given us the reputation as a lucky team....and maybe we are :dunno:

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Of course they're "clicking", they played A&M and Tennessee.... Too much ESPN for you guys.

Agreed. I'm nervous about Alabama because I think they're the best remaining team on the schedule but they've only played 2 decent opponents this year - West Virginia and Ole Miss - and they are 1-1 in those games. Otherwise, they've gotten better as a team since the first few games but have padded stats against teams with big problems. Are they good? Absolutely. Are they as good as Auburn? I don't think so. We'll find out tomorrow and next week just how good they are. The main reason I'm nervous about the Alabama game is because it's on the road and we have played poorly on the road thus far (in terms of penalties and poise). On paper, we're better but in that environment, it becomes more of a toss-up unless we see a complete game on the road in Athens next week.

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Of course they're "clicking", they played A&M and Tennessee.... Too much ESPN for you guys.

Agreed. I'm nervous about Alabama because I think they're the best remaining team on the schedule but they've only played 2 decent opponents this year - West Virginia and Ole Miss - and they are 1-1 in those games. Otherwise, they've gotten better as a team since the first few games but have padded stats against teams with big problems. Are they good? Absolutely. Are they as good as Auburn? I don't think so. We'll find out tomorrow and next week just how good they are. The main reason I'm nervous about the Alabama game is because it's on the road and we have played poorly on the road thus far (in terms of penalties and poise). On paper, we're better but in that environment, it becomes more of a toss-up unless we see a complete game on the road in Athens next week.

I agree, we're better on paper. But college football is fun to watch because that can go out the window in a lot of games. (and it makes me nervous most games)

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Any school that gives over 35 full scholarships concerns me. We have a habit of making all opponents look good...but fortunately, not quite good enough to beat us.....which has given us the reputation as a lucky team....and maybe we are :dunno:

Not quite... From 2009-2014, Auburn is 37-0 vs. opponents that had a win pct of at least 10% lower than Auburn. The average margin of victory is 21-points with 65% of the games won by 16 or more points. Auburn is also 20-0 against FBS teams with a non-winning record, along with FCS schools with Malzahn calling the offense. The average margin of victory in those games is 24-points. Since Malzahn has been at Auburn, the Tigers have lost 13 games. Those 13 losses came against teams with a combined record of 134-35. Only 4 losses came against teams with a win pct of less than .700 and all 4 games came during the 2009 season.

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If we weren't all over the charts on defense from one week to another I'd buy the predictability of which opponent we should fear. Ellis gaudy high rushing D stats took a hit when we started playing good teams playing well so let me just say, with the 10th rated total defense in the 14 team SEC, we need to fear a team that passes AND runs well. Who cares about playing teams with great defenses, after punking the vaunted ole siss "Landsharks" in Oxford. The only thing that stops our O is our O. Fear what our D cannot stop...which currently is most things thrown at them.

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I said a while back that Bama is the worst matchup remaining for us. I'm not sure why that seems controversial to anyone. Stat, I am surprised to hear that Georgia is ranked 28th in PE offense. My not so scientific opinion was that, although they can run the ball well, they can't really pass worth a lick.

Basically, these stats back up the results of my 'eye' test.

Teams that can pass on us with regularity can score on us.

Teams that can disrupt our running game can keep us from scoring as much.

Teams that can do both are the ones that 'scare' me.

If I were an opposing D coordinator, I'd sell out to stop the run and hope to make Nick beat me through the air. If I were an opposing O coordinator, I'd attack our secondary with short to mid-range passes that have the potential for a lot of YAC.

If I'm Auburn, I want to make sure teams cannot stop our run game. That means sticking with it, but also working on our PE in order to hurt those teams that sell out to stop the run. Gotta execute. I also want to make teams earn their points against us. I think we'd be much better off if we'd limit YAC and make teams plod methodically down the field.

One last note: I'm not convinced Bama can stop our run game. IMO, that was the key last year to our beating them. I know we tied it up on a pass, but it was the threat of Nick running that opened up that play -- and Nick executed the pass to Sammie perfectly. If we can continue to improve on O this season at the pace we're on, it's very possible we win out.

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Lol, no I think that's the complete opposite of them this year! But I don't like uga and bammer match ups this year. That wr for uga Bennett has owned us and their defense is athletic enough sideline to sideline to cover ground. Hopefully they're not disciplined though

Bammer, we like to play alot of man to man one on one and that's just not good going against Cooper. Reggie ragland is one of the most athletic linebackers I've ever seen personally and they like wr screens and we don't play those that well for whatever reason

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