The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment

[DKW 86 7,419]

http://www.gallup.co...employment.aspx

The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment

Here's something that many Americans -- including some of the smartest and most educated among us -- don't know: The official unemployment rate, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor, is extremely misleading.

Right now, we're hearing much celebrating from the media, the White House and Wall Street about how unemployment is "down" to 5.6%. The cheerleading for this number is deafening. The media loves a comeback story, the White House wants to score political points and Wall Street would like you to stay in the market.

None of them will tell you this: If you, a family member or anyone is unemployed and has subsequently given up on finding a job -- if you are so hopelessly out of work that you've stopped looking over the past four weeks -- the Department of Labor doesn't count you as unemployed. That's right. While you are as unemployed as one can possibly be, and tragically may never find work again, you are not counted in the figure we see relentlessly in the news -- currently 5.6%. Right now, as many as 30 million Americans are either out of work or severely underemployed. Trust me, the vast majority of them aren't throwing parties to toast "falling" unemployment.

There's another reason why the official rate is misleading. Say you're an out-of-work engineer or healthcare worker or construction worker or retail manager: If you perform a minimum of one hour of work in a week and are paid at least $20 -- maybe someone pays you to mow their lawn -- you're not officially counted as unemployed in the much-reported 5.6%. Few Americans know this.

Yet another figure of importance that doesn't get much press: those working part time but wanting full-time work. If you have a degree in chemistry or math and are working 10 hours part time because it is all you can find -- in other words, you are severely underemployed -- the government doesn't count you in the 5.6%. Few Americans know this.

There's no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate, which cruelly overlooks the suffering of the long-term and often permanently unemployed as well as the depressingly underemployed, amounts to a Big Lie.

And it's a lie that has consequences, because the great American dream is to have a good job, and in recent years, America has failed to deliver that dream more than it has at any time in recent memory. A good job is an individual's primary identity, their very self-worth, their dignity -- it establishes the relationship they have with their friends, community and country. When we fail to deliver a good job that fits a citizen's talents, training and experience, we are failing the great American dream.

Gallup defines a good job as 30+ hours per week for an organization that provides a regular paycheck. Right now, the U.S. is delivering at a staggeringly low rate of 44%, which is the number of full-time jobs as a percent of the adult population, 18 years and older. We need that to be 50% and a bare minimum of 10 million new, good jobs to replenish America's middle class.

I hear all the time that "unemployment is greatly reduced, but the people aren't feeling it." When the media, talking heads, the White House and Wall Street start reporting the truth -- the percent of Americans in good jobs; jobs that are full time and real -- then we will quit wondering why Americans aren't "feeling" something that doesn't remotely reflect the reality in their lives. And we will also quit wondering what hollowed out the middle class.

Jim Clifton is Chairman and CEO at Gallup.

[AUTUmike 79]

Is it really a "big lie?" Every freshman economics textbook explains how unemployment is calculated...

I grow concerned about people that frame their own fundamental misunderstandings as the perpetration of a lie.

[AURaptor 1,122]

Yes, it's a lie.A very big one too.

[DKW 86 7,419]

Is it really a "big lie?" Every freshman economics textbook explains how unemployment is calculated...

I grow concerned about people that frame their own fundamental misunderstandings as the perpetration of a lie.

And only about 10-15% of the populace would recall that in reading an article on Unemployment numbers.

[WarTim 3,456]

Thanks for posting DKW...

[DKW 86 7,419]

I want you to remember that this is from Gallup, the people that do polling. Very democrat friendly over the last two Presidential cycles. This is not Fox News. It is likely the premier polling firm in the nation and they understand the nuance and the definitional malarkey being pulled in these bogus stats.

[cptau 169]

Propaganda was something the NAZIs, Imperial Japan and the Soviet Union provided to their citizens and to the rest of the work. Fictitious victories, inventions they didn't invent, and fake achievements.

Our government is getting better at it.

[homersapien 11,366]

Can anyone tell me if the methodology of developing these statistics has been changed?

[AUFAN78 3,894]

Can anyone tell me if the methodology of developing these statistics has been changed?

Scary Homes, I was about to ask the same. Good question BTW.

[homersapien 11,366]

Can anyone tell me if the methodology of developing these statistics has been changed?

Scary Homes, I was about to ask the same. Good question BTW.

Well, it does seem easier to view it as a despicable, deceptive lie!

[AUFAN78 3,894]

Can anyone tell me if the methodology of developing these statistics has been changed?

Scary Homes, I was about to ask the same. Good question BTW.

Well, it does seem easier to view it as a despicable, deceptive lie!

Wait on it...........

[DKW 86 7,419]

If you understand how they get these numbers, then no, the process hasnt changed.

What is different is that the numbers arent accurately measuring reality and that is what Gallup is publicizing.

[WarTim 3,456]

Anyone shocked about lies from this WH?

[homersapien 11,366]

If you understand how they get these numbers, then no, the process hasnt changed.

What is different is that the numbers arent accurately measuring reality and that is what Gallup is publicizing.

In other words, it's not a "Big Lie" at all.

It's the same numbers that have always been presented. The fact they may not always represent the true reality is not a "lie". There's nothing nefarious about them.

Anyone shocked about lies from this WH?

I am not shocked you would say such a thing.

[icanthearyou 4,462]

Anyone shocked about lies from this WH?

Do you believe the White House is involved in "creating" the unemployment numbers?

[WarTim 3,456]

No. Just spinning them into lies that they can use.......

[icanthearyou 4,462]

No. Just spinning them into lies that they can use.......

How do they do that?

[Strychnine 1,802]

No. Just spinning them into lies that they can use.......

How do they do that?

Magic, and a dash of paprika.

[homersapien 11,366]

How does one spin a number.

[icanthearyou 4,462]

The number is a baseline. The number is an indicator. In order to manipulate the number, you have to change the methodology behind it. For instance, reclassify those in the military from neither employed or unemployed to, employed status. Viola, you have instantly lowed unemployment. Yes, that has been done. I have forgotten the President who made that change.

Ultimately, this thread has nothing to do with reality. This is about hyping the significance of the indicator or, downplaying the significance. This is about politics, nothing more.

Unemployment is heading toward normal levels. Hooray for Obama. Dumb.

The unemployment numbers are bogus. Obama's policies are a total failure. Dumb.

[WarTim 3,456]

Well, at least you were impartial and called everyone dumb......

[icanthearyou 4,462]

Well, at least you were impartial and called everyone dumb......

I did not call anyone dumb. That type of thinking is dumb. Depth of thinking should go beyond partisan bias.

[WarTim 3,456]

Just kidding Ichy. (I fail miserably @ attempted humor way too often),,,,,,,,,,,Sorry

[autigeremt 6,599]

I think every WH lies about this stuff, but the methodology is at fault here. It's created to support a sitting party or administration.

[icanthearyou 4,462]

I think very WH lies about this stuff, but the methodology is at fault here. It's created to support a sitting party or administration.

Only if they alter the methodology and consequently, change the baseline. That however, is not the fault of the methodology.