Jeremy Johnson doesn't need to be of Heisman caliber

[WFE12 9,191]

Interesting article I read....just wanted to get yall's thoughts on it, I included some of the parts that stood out but yall can check out the rest since it's a lengthy article - http://www.collegeandmagnolia.com/2015/7/22/9013981/auburn-doesnt-need-jeremy-johnson-to-be-a-heisman-caliber-quarterback

Walt Austin - SB Nation

Jeremy Johnson is receiving a lot of hype, but hype is just a word to describe praise before the facts. I've chosen to use Heisman Trophy candidate as a point of argument because it's something we can point to that has numbers to compare from the last few seasons.

Jeremy Johnson does not have to be a Heisman Trophy Candidate for Auburn to succeed. He obviously has to be good, but he doesn't have to be great. He doesn't have to be a Heisman-level quarterback for 2015 to be successful for Auburn.

Nick Marshall was never a serious candidate for the Heisman Trophy over the past two seasons, and he led Auburn's offense to spectacular levels. Sure, Cam won the Heisman in 2010 on the way to the national championship, but go back to 2004 and Jason Campbell was the perfect "game manager" quarterback that never really "wowed" anyone, but played well enough to guide the Tigers to a perfect season. During that 2004 season, Campbell had a completion percentage of 69.6% and 2700 yards passing. Jeremy Johnson has hovered above the 70% completion rating in his limited snaps, and we know from practice reports, those few games, and A-Day that he can throw the football accurately. If JJ approaches that level of success just in throwing the football, then Auburn will be just fine. Truthfully, I believe if JJ throws for his target of 3000 yards, about 500 more than Nick Marshall reached in 2014, then Auburn will be successful offensively.

To put that into some perspective, remember that even in 2010, Cam Newton barely surpassed Campbell's passing numbers. He threw for 2854, which was 36th best in the nation. 3000 yards last season would have been 40th among all FBS quarterbacks. Hardly spectacular numbers.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Jason Campbell was far more than a game manager during the 2004 season. He was the No. 3 rated passer in the nation and the No. 1 rated passer nationally, throwing on 3rd down. Cam Newton was the nation's No. 2 rated passer to go along with over 1400-yards rushing. Yards per game is not the best way to rank quarterbacks.

[WFE12 9,191]

Jason Campbell was far more than a game manager during the 2004 season. He was the No. 3 rated passer in the nation and the No. 1 rated passer nationally, throwing on 3rd down. Cam Newton was the nation's No. 2 rated passer to go along with over 1400-yards rushing. Yards per game is not the best way to rank quarterbacks.

yeah he may not have had those cam like highlight plays wowing us but he was still pretty darn good

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

Remember Andre Ware and David Klingler? They played QB in an offensive system that got one a Heisman and the other almost simply because their numbers were so gaudy. Indicators suggest Jeremy is better than either of those guys and playing in essentially the same scenario of an offensive system that is only stopped when it stops itself.

[Mikey 16,577]

Jason Campbell mentioned as a "game manager" is another example of why I don't check out SB Nation.

[collector527 0]

I agree with the article in the sense that I don't think Jeremy needs to be great for us to win. My opinion is us winning depends more on the defense. The Offense will score, we just need to stop people.

As far as Campbell goes he is the perfect QB to me. They can call him what hey want but I don't want a QB running I want him throwing the ball with accuracy, moving within the pocket to keep plays alive and make great throws on 3rd down to keep drives going and Thats what Jason did

[Tiger 8,819]

Solid article. JJ looks like a freaking giant handing the ball off to Roc in the photo above the article.

[McLoofus 35,182]

I agree with the article in the sense that I don't think Jeremy needs to be great for us to win. My opinion is us winning depends more on the defense. The Offense will score, we just need to stop people.

As far as Campbell goes he is the perfect QB to me. They can call him what hey want but I don't want a QB running I want him throwing the ball with accuracy, moving within the pocket to keep plays alive and make great throws on 3rd down to keep drives going and Thats what Jason did

I also agree with the argument, but not the analysis used to support it.

As Stat mentioned, Cam added 1400 yards and 25 TDs on the ground. He was an alien robot cyborg from outer space sent back from the future to make football more awesome. He had one of the single best performances of any quarterback in college football history. He was the definition of great in 2010.

And, again as Stat said, you don't judge the success of a quarterback by total passing yards. It's like this guy is a Heisman voter from the 80s.

That all said, Gus and the rest of us are so excited about this offense because we are dripping with talent on offense. Experience, notsomuch. But we probably average better than 4*s across our offensive 2-deep. That's dangerous when you have a bonafide wizard concocting your game plan. All JJ has to do is be cool like Fonzie and get a little help from Golson and our offense will be nasty.

Put another way, JJ might just need to be good and the rest of the offense could help lift him to a Heisman.

[Barnacle 9,064]

I think Golson is going to be a rockstar on the offensive line. We're going to love him.

[homersapien 11,366]

Understatement of the year.

As already said, all Auburn really needs is a competitive defense.

[McLoofus 35,182]

I think Golson is going to be a rockstar on the offensive line. We're going to love him.

I just saw he won some sort of "Knock Down" award. I have no idea what that means. Could have something to do with a wing eating contest for all I know. I still consider it good news.

[meh130 1,043]

Jason Campbell finished 7th in the 2004 Heisman voting, with no active campaign. If there had been a campaign, he likely would have finished higher, probably 5th, and perhaps as high as 4th.

[amsterjam 107]

Jason Campbell finished 7th in the 2004 Heisman voting, with no active campaign. If there had been a campaign, he likely would have finished higher, probably 5th, and perhaps as high as 4th.

Sharing the spotlight with two great backs didn't help either.

[caleb1633 1,418]

Jason Campbell finished 7th in the 2004 Heisman voting, with no active campaign. If there had been a campaign, he likely would have finished higher, probably 5th, and perhaps as high as 4th.

Sharing the spotlight with two great backs didn't help either.

That and every game was over by halftime that season. How did we not play for a MNC again?

[eagle76 1]

I seem to remember that 2004 lsu game that was won by jc and ct in the last 70 seconds or so. That game was definitely not over at half time.

[meh130 1,043]

The comparisons to Jason Campbell are somewhat fair, in the sense JJ is similar both physically and talent-wise to Campbell.

The real question will be how much do we throw the ball. Here is the summary of Gus Malzahn's offensive production:

Yards:

2006: P=149.5/R=228.5 T=378.0

2007: P=371.0/R=172.9 T=543.9

2008: P=301.9/R=268.0 T=569.9

2009: P=219.8/R=212.0 T=431.8

2010: P=214.4/R=284.8 T=499.2

2011: P=155.5/R=182.3 T=337.8

2012: P=260.5/R=206.2 T=466.7

2013: P=173.0/R=328.4 T=501.4

2014: P=229.5/R=255.5 T=485.0

Snaps:

2006: P=21.6/R=38.5 T=60.1 (35.9% Pass)

2007: P=40.3/R=40.1 T=80.4 (50.1% Pass)

2008: P=30.2/R=48.1 T=78.3 (38.6% Pass)

2009: P=28.0/R=42.3 T=70.3 (39.8% Pass)

2010: P=21.1/R=46.6 T=67.7 (31.2% Pass)

2011: P=22.5/R=41.2 T=63.7 (35.3% Pass)

2012: P=31.7/R=41.5 T=73.2 (43.3% Pass)

2013: P=20.4/R=52.0 T=72.4 (28.2% Pass)

2014: P=25.5/R=46.7 T=72.2 (35.3% Pass)

I would think Gus wants to target an offensive production of 450 to 500 YPG. I also think he wants a minimum of 200 YPG rushing, and a minimum of 200 YPG passing with the additional 100 YPG based on what the team can do. This year that means throwing the ball.

If JJ averages 275 YPG, he will exceed 3,500 yards for the season in 13 games, and 4,000 yards in a 15 game season. If he averages 300 YPG, he will approach 4,000 yards for the season in 13 games, and 4,500 yards in a 15 game season.

Our running game is likely to be more power plays, and more designed run plays, and fewer option plays. Still, I think the goal will be 5.0 YPC. When a Malzahn team falls below 5.0 YPC, the team does not do as well. I am guessing Malzahn has a goal of at least 9.0 yards per pass attempt. Yards per attempt is different than yards per completion. The college stat does not include sacks, which are counted as runs. But the completion percentage is also a key. I would think with JJ we can push towards 10 yards per pass attempt.

I think we will lean towards 40% passing in our play selection, and more than 70 snaps per game. I think we will average slightly more than 200 yards rushing per game, and slightly under 300 yards passing per game.

[CJBas 4]

I've said before and still believe that what Auburn needs from JJ, that we do not already know he has, is the ability to make the right decisions quickly. That's why Marshall was so good. He wasn't the greatest passer nor the greatest runner, but he made the right decisions without hesitation. And that's what Malzahn's offense needs in a QB.

If Johnson can do that, then I think he has all the other attributes to be a fine QB for Auburn. Rrankly I couldn't care less if he's make a decent QB for anyone else's system.

[CJBas 4]

I seem to remember that 2004 lsu game that was won by jc and ct in the last 70 seconds or so. That game was definitely not over at half time.

No, it wasn't. That was the game decided by LSU trying to cheat by a back climbing over a lineman to block an extra point.

That game was played a few days after Hurricane Opal came through.

And that was the last game that was that closely contended for that team. It was a breakout game for them. After that no one could stay on the field with them very long. The uat game was not decided at the half either. uat was ahead at half time. But Auburn deatroyed them in the 2nd half.

[AU-24 3,063]

Jason Campbell finished 7th in the 2004 Heisman voting, with no active campaign. If there had been a campaign, he likely would have finished higher, probably 5th, and perhaps as high as 4th.

Sharing the spotlight with two great backs didn't help either.

That and every game was over by halftime that season. How did we not play for a MNC again?

^This, and how do we not rightfully claim it?

[caleb1633 1,418]

I seem to remember that 2004 lsu game that was won by jc and ct in the last 70 seconds or so. That game was definitely not over at half time.

Yeah and that was the only game, it was early in the season, and it was to the defending national champions. After that though, pretty much every team was out of it by halftime.

[tgr4lfe 220]

I agree with the article in the sense that I don't think Jeremy needs to be great for us to win. My opinion is us winning depends more on the defense. The Offense will score, we just need to stop people.

As far as Campbell goes he is the perfect QB to me. They can call him what hey want but I don't want a QB running I want him throwing the ball with accuracy, moving within the pocket to keep plays alive and make great throws on 3rd down to keep drives going and Thats what Jason did

That all said, Gus and the rest of us are so excited about this offense because we are dripping with talent on offense. Experience, notsomuch. But we probably average better than 4*s across our offensive 2-deep. That's dangerous when you have a bonafide wizard concocting your game plan. All JJ has to do is be cool like Fonzie and get a little help from Golson and our offense will be nasty.

Disagree about the experience, there are 6 or 7 on the OL with playing experience, at least 6 WRs with playing experience, granted the RB and HB positions are limited in experience, but I think the OL is more important right now and it is better for young backs to have an experienced OL. The OL two deep is strong and probably the most talented top to bottom that AU has ever had.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,662]

I could see this offense being like Ohio State (not the same but the philosophy) where there's gonna be a lot of run plays that look to be home run and a lot of intermediate-deep passing, i.e 10+ yards

That's the best way to achieve real perfect balance but I assume the pass is gonna have to set up the run to make that work to the best it can. Get a couple passes in the middle, on the sideline, and then you can really make those pitches and stretch plays work.

[mustache eagle 2,397]

That 2004 team was special

[McLoofus 35,182]

I agree with the article in the sense that I don't think Jeremy needs to be great for us to win. My opinion is us winning depends more on the defense. The Offense will score, we just need to stop people.

As far as Campbell goes he is the perfect QB to me. They can call him what hey want but I don't want a QB running I want him throwing the ball with accuracy, moving within the pocket to keep plays alive and make great throws on 3rd down to keep drives going and Thats what Jason did

That all said, Gus and the rest of us are so excited about this offense because we are dripping with talent on offense. Experience, notsomuch. But we probably average better than 4*s across our offensive 2-deep. That's dangerous when you have a bonafide wizard concocting your game plan. All JJ has to do is be cool like Fonzie and get a little help from Golson and our offense will be nasty.

Disagree about the experience, there are 6 or 7 on the OL with playing experience, at least 6 WRs with playing experience, granted the RB and HB positions are limited in experience, but I think the OL is more important right now and it is better for young backs to have an experienced OL. The OL two deep is strong and probably the most talented top to bottom that AU has ever had.

If you don't believe me about experience ask Stat. As for the OL specifically, we have 65 starts returning with 13 games appeared in by Braden Smith. 12 of the 65 were by Austin Golson at a different position in a different offense, but we'll still be charitable and call it 78. We had that many starts going into 2014 just between Dismukes and Slade. In 2013, we had those two guys as 3rd-year starters and a top 5 draft pick at left tackle (along with a first team All-American at FB). This is at a position group that depends on cohesion more than any other on the field. Again, we are dripping with talent, but this team is green.

[Tiger 8,819]

The level of inexperience on this team compared to the past AU SEC championship teams has me concerned for sure about this upcoming season. I think this could ultimately cost us a game or 2 which would be costly in the SEC West. We have so many question marks that have to fall in AU's favor to take the west. But if we played Ohio State's schedule...