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Auburn vs Miss. St. Score Prediction


augolf1716

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I will not predict a score. But I will predict a strategy. We need to view this as a track meet, like the Iron Bowl last year. Moo State and Dak Prescott can and will score against our defense. So we must use the Chip Kelly "Score, score, and score some more" philosophy.

Perhaps Muschamp will figure out some way to make our defense somewhat effective. If not, we need score over 45 points to ensure a win.

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I think a good day for a first time QB start at Auburn in our current mental condition would produce 20 points. I think a good day for OUR D after a good ass chewing would be to allow 38. What's really sad is the number of times I've watched first time starters from opposing teams come into JH and light the place up. I'm fully on board with White and hope we give him time. I believe by the end of the season he can be special.

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I am not predicting a score, but I do want to ask some of the posters who are picking us to not only win, but to score more 24 points against one of the better defenses in the SEC, with a new QB who's never played a college down? I am seeing scores like 31-34 points, and I really want to know how you came to that conclusion? If Auburn wins, we won't score more than 21 points, if that. In order for us to win, we have to make it a low scoring game, not a shootout, because that means we are in deep with our defense playing terrible, again. Also, if none of you have remembered, the most points our offense has scored in the first 3 games is 27 points (UL was only 24, since our defense scored a TD), in OT, against Div. 1AA Jax State. But yea, we'll score over 30 against Miss. State, who we've struggled to score points against in the past 5-6 years. Really, some of you need to really temper your expectations. There is a reason why SW was the backup in the first place, and now everyone thinks all of a sudden our offense will go back to the NM and Cam days. This game has to be low-scoring in order for us to win, or we might get blown away, like the LSU game...

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So we're supposed to take what other qb's have done in the past, and take what the JJ ran offense has scored against other teams to make our prediction on how a SW led defense would look like? In any rate, over the last 6 years of playing State, we've scored 40+ points 2 times. less than 20 only 2 times as well and 23+ points 2 times. Average points scored over the last 6 years is 27.3 repeating. So with your logic, the 31-34 points isnt all that off base.

While they do play good defense, we usually do as well. Over that same span, the average points scored for MSU is 26.333 repeating. Never scoring over 40 points, only scoring over 30 2 times. Scoring 14 once, and 20+ 3 times.

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So we're supposed to take what other qb's have done in the past, and take what the JJ ran offense has scored against other teams to make our prediction on how a SW led defense would look like? In any rate, over the last 6 years of playing State, we've scored 40+ points 2 times. less than 20 only 2 times as well and 23+ points 2 times. Average points scored over the last 6 years is 27.3 repeating. So with your logic, the 31-34 points isnt all that off base.

You're looking at all wrong though. In the games we scored 40+, both were against very sub-par Miss. State teams, and with QBs who were not getting their first start. Secondly, if you're trying to start an argument, look what our offense, with Cam and NM, could only score in the past 3-4 years? Now, be honest with yourself. Is our team better than the ones NM was on in the past two seasons, where we barely score over 20 points, or worse? Is Miss. State's defense worse or better than the ones that gave up 40+points in 2009 and 2011? If you're being objective, not a homer, you will say that our offense is worse and that Miss. State's defense is way much better than the ones that gave up 40+points. So, yes, I think it will be a miracle if we score more than 21 points Saturday. You still haven't explained where we're scoring all of these points?

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I am not predicting a score, but I do want to ask some of the posters who are picking us to not only win, but to score more 24 points against one of the better defenses in the SEC, with a new QB who's never played a college down? I am seeing scores like 31-34 points, and I really want to know how you came to that conclusion? If Auburn wins, we won't score more than 21 points, if that. In order for us to win, we have to make it a low scoring game, not a shootout, because that means we are in deep with our defense playing terrible, again. Also, if none of you have remembered, the most points our offense has scored in the first 3 games is 27 points (UL was only 24, since our defense scored a TD), in OT, against Div. 1AA Jax State. But yea, we'll score over 30 against Miss. State, who we've struggled to score points against in the past 5-6 years. Really, some of you need to really temper your expectations. There is a reason why SW was the backup in the first place, and now everyone thinks all of a sudden our offense will go back to the NM and Cam days. This game has to be low-scoring in order for us to win, or we might get blown away, like the LSU game...

"Better defenses in the SEC?" Are you sure you're not thinking of OM?

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You still haven't explained where we're scoring all of these points?

How about this... We have 4 excellent running backs. If White can come in and create just enough threat in the passing game to open up the run, then our backs could handle the majority of the yards and scoring.

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I am not predicting a score, but I do want to ask some of the posters who are picking us to not only win, but to score more 24 points against one of the better defenses in the SEC, with a new QB who's never played a college down? I am seeing scores like 31-34 points, and I really want to know how you came to that conclusion? If Auburn wins, we won't score more than 21 points, if that. In order for us to win, we have to make it a low scoring game, not a shootout, because that means we are in deep with our defense playing terrible, again. Also, if none of you have remembered, the most points our offense has scored in the first 3 games is 27 points (UL was only 24, since our defense scored a TD), in OT, against Div. 1AA Jax State. But yea, we'll score over 30 against Miss. State, who we've struggled to score points against in the past 5-6 years. Really, some of you need to really temper your expectations. There is a reason why SW was the backup in the first place, and now everyone thinks all of a sudden our offense will go back to the NM and Cam days. This game has to be low-scoring in order for us to win, or we might get blown away, like the LSU game...

I can't speak for other posters but i picked us to score 30 points because of blind hope and eternal optimism about AU football regardless of what the facts are.

Hope that helps :)

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Correct me if I am wrong ( it has happened before) ...State has 3 returning starters on O and 4 on D. And AU is "young"??

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You still haven't explained where we're scoring all of these points?

How about this... We have 4 excellent running backs. If White can come in and create just enough threat in the passing game to open up the run, then our backs could handle the majority of the yards and scoring.

All I want to see is 3rd down conversions. In the LSU game JJ completed one pass for a 3rd down conversion in the first half because Steele called an obvious man blitz. The other three were terrible throws, one almost picked off. All SW has to do is protect the football and convert more 3rd downs and I bet Gus can call plays he is setting up.
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I picked Auburn 45 - 35 over Miss. State. I have us scoring that many points because, aside from intangibles of what look to me like untapped AU potential (on offense) this season, teams with Gus Malzahn as OC or co-OC rarely go long periods without scoring 30+ points per game. Not saying the current mini-drought is over but these are the AU points per game just since Gus returned as head coach. Actually, a microcosm of his career. Here's hoping!

21 - the Fournette show

27

31

31

44

31

7

38

35

42

23

41

45

20

59

45

31

59

34

43

55

35

45

45

62

30

21

24

38

31

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Correct me if I am wrong ( it has happened before) ...State has 3 returning starters on O and 4 on D. And AU is "young"??

I don't think our 4 1/2 and 5 are meaningfully more, particularly since half the guys behind them are freshmen and our guy at the most important position on any football team has never taken a snap in college before.

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Miss State D slowed down LSU especially after 1st half. Our D hasn't slowed down anybody. Based on how close Miss State Played LSU and how bad we played LSU a sane person would predict Miss. State to win by at least 14.Luckily for me I am not sane. I think SW and running backs do enough which helps the D 24-20 Auburn. I am glad we don't have any asylums close to my house.

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Miss State D slowed down LSU especially after 1st half. Our D hasn't slowed down anybody. Based on how close Miss State Played LSU and how bad we played LSU a sane person would predict Miss. State to win by at least 14.Luckily for me I am not sane. I think SW and running backs do enough which helps the D 24-20 Auburn. I am glad we don't have any asylums close to my house.

Lol. That's the thing, though. The same Auburn team that played LSU won't be playing MSU. We made a change at the most important position on the field. Doesn't mean we'll be much better, but we can at least hope for it without calling the men in white coats.

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Well let's tell it like it is:

* The last 4 SEC games we gave up an average of 42 points (or something like that).

* Last week was one of the worst performances in AU history.

* We are going up against a team that could have (or should have) beat LSU 2 weeks ago.

* MSU has the most veteran QB in the SEC.

* MSU is ahead of us in just about every statistical category.

* We are starting a RS freshman QB who has never taken a snap of college football.

* Since we are playing a freshman QB, we are probably going to go ultra conservative and run the ball 75% of the time at least.

* Our defensive coordinator basically said yesterday that he has never seen a program in such bad shape on the defensive side of the ball, and he has been around a LOT of programs.

* Due to our horrible play in the LSU game we are going to probably play even MORE players on defense this week that are freshmen or have never played before... basically new starters almost everywhere on defense.

The change at QB gives some hope although I think he is going to make mistakes (he is a freshman). The defense is 2012 terrible at this point. It will take an unexpected offensive surge and a monumental turnaround by the defense for us to win. We are reeling right now. My heart wants to say 27-24 Auburn but brain says 38-17 MSU.

I will say this - if we can find a way to win this game, it will be one of Gus M's best coaching jobs ever as a head coach. This team is fractured right now.

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Lots of loyal AU fans getting in the mood for the big upset....though I'm curious why some folks are spending so much time and so many words trying to explain why AU is going to lose.

They have done great research and offer thorough analyses......all of which of course is totally speculative ....."tell it like it is" ? more like tell it like you think it is...JMO

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Well let's tell it like it is:

* The last 4 SEC games we gave up an average of 42 points (or something like that).

* Last week was one of the worst performances in AU history.

* We are going up against a team that could have (or should have) beat LSU 2 weeks ago.

* MSU has the most veteran QB in the SEC.

* MSU is ahead of us in just about every statistical category.

* We are starting a RS freshman QB who has never taken a snap of college football.

* Since we are playing a freshman QB, we are probably going to go ultra conservative and run the ball 75% of the time at least.

* Our defensive coordinator basically said yesterday that he has never seen a program in such bad shape on the defensive side of the ball, and he has been around a LOT of programs.

* Due to our horrible play in the LSU game we are going to probably play even MORE players on defense this week that are freshmen or have never played before... basically new starters almost everywhere on defense.

The change at QB gives some hope although I think he is going to make mistakes (he is a freshman). The defense is 2012 terrible at this point. It will take an unexpected offensive surge and a monumental turnaround by the defense for us to win. We are reeling right now. My heart wants to say 27-24 Auburn but brain says 38-17 MSU.

I will say this - if we can find a way to win this game, it will be one of Gus M's best coaching jobs ever as a head coach. This team is fractured right now.

I agree with your outcome, but not your logic. Miss State is NOT a good team this year. LSU played a lazy second half against them and was very vanilla in that game. They actually opened up the playbook more against us. Dak may be a great leader. He may make good decisions, and he may be very mobile. However, Dak needs help spreading the field vertically. His arm strength is bad. With many of his playmakers and OL having left last year, stopping Mississippi state is dependent on containing the short pass (primarily to Wilson) and the qb run.

Unfortunately, we are lousy at both of those things. Also, with White making his first start, I feel like the offense will go in reverse a bit more. There is a learning curve for every quarterback as a starter, and his is just beginning. Moreover, Gus has been quick to abandon the downhill run game this season. I think we are going to spend a lot of time trying to attack MSU on the perimeter. With a new quarterback, I'm not sure I see that ending well.

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Auburn 65 Miss St 14

I'm all for optimism and all...but this prediction..... I don't know about that.....

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* Our defensive coordinator basically said yesterday that he has never seen a program in such bad shape on the defensive side of the ball, and he has been around a LOT of programs.

* Due to our horrible play in the LSU game we are going to probably play even MORE players on defense this week that are freshmen or have never played before... basically new starters almost everywhere on defense.

This team is fractured right now.

Ouch - that hurt
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Lots of loyal AU fans getting in the mood for the big upset....though I'm curious why some folks are spending so much time and so many words trying to explain why AU is going to lose.

They have done great research and offer thorough analyses......all of which of course is totally speculative ....."tell it like it is" ? more like tell it like you think it is...JMO

Tell me one thing I said that is not true other than my prediction since I cannot read the future... yet.

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