Inside the Numbers Podcast - San Jose State Post Game

[StatTiger 3,188]

https://soundcloud.c...state-post-game

[JDUBB4AU 5,110]

Thank u sir

[TexasTiger 12,828]

Thanks, Stat.

[3rdgeneration 6,469]

Stat, thanks for this. Very interesting and iinformative discussion. I realize now how much Jeremy Johnson has let us down. I am not knocking him, because I know that he is surely beating himself up. I hope he gets it together and can return to add the needed spark this team needs. I feel like Sean White is doing the best he can with his lack of college experience and I applaud his efforts. We were talking about a lack of a tight end during the game yesterday, too. I was glad to see more explosive plays this week on offense. A step in the right direction, I guess. You gave me some hope when you said it wasn't a lack of talent and that we were close if we could get the quarterback play up to what it needs to be.

I feel like our defensive struggles with work themselves out when the defense sees/feels success from the offense.

Oh, and what did you think about those wishbone plays?

As always, great analysis. Thanks, again and War Eagle!!!

[wareagleguy 1,393]

Thanks Stat, good as always

[StatTiger 3,188]

Stat, thanks for this. Very interesting and iinformative discussion. I realize now how much Jeremy Johnson has let us down. I am not knocking him, because I know that he is surely beating himself up. I hope he gets it together and can return to add the needed spark this team needs. I feel like Sean White is doing the best he can with his lack of college experience and I applaud his efforts. We were talking about a lack of a tight end during the game yesterday, too. I was glad to see more explosive plays this week on offense. A step in the right direction, I guess. You gave me some hope when you said it wasn't a lack of talent and that we were close if we could get the quarterback play up to what it needs to be.

I feel like our defensive struggles with work themselves out when the defense sees/feels success from the offense.

Oh, and what did you think about those wishbone plays?

As always, great analysis. Thanks, again and War Eagle!!!

On defense, I think we are going to see continued "hit & miss" primarily because of the youth movement. AU played out of the 3-4 for the majority of the game and I believe the coaches wanted to do so against San Jose State to work on it for the future. This hurt the run-defense because it exposed some weaknesses up front but will be for the best in the long run. Credit to Al Borges for utilizing his TE's against the 3-4 look. AU struggled in coverage on pass-plays and then Al would gash the defense with slashing runs inside.

There is some good news for the defense as they appear to play better as the game progresses. The AU defense allows 6.8 yards per play in the first-half and 4.8 during the second-half. They allow 58.3% on 3rd downs in the first-half and 35.5% during the second-half. They have allowed 6.3 yards per rush in the first-half during the last 4 games and 4.4 yards during the second-half. I believe pass-rush will continue to be a major issue but it will help if the defense can come up with some key turnovers. Expecting 4 like they did against San Jose is wishing for too much though.

The next 11 days will be critical in deciding what direction the pass-offense will take and who will be pulling the trigger. Sean White has been named the starter the past two games but that has never been concrete it will remain that way. If Auburn cannot make plays in the passing game, I see only 2 possible wins remaining on the schedule.

Looking back at the period of 2009-2014, I sorted the games Auburn faced, when the opponent finished the season winning at least 70 percent of their games.

I then broke down the pass-rating and number of impact plays in those games against quality opponents and here is what I found....

Auburn was competitive (within 6 points) in 13 games, compiling a record of 9-4. During those 13 games, Auburn had an average pass-rating of 141.1 and generated an average of 9 impact plays or plays of 15-yards or more.

There were 14 games, Auburn was defeated by 7 points or more (0-14). During those 14 games, the pass-rating average was 108.9 and the offense averaged only 6 impact plays per game.

Through 5 games, Auburn has a pass-rating of 123.7 and are averaging only 5 impact plays per game.

[War Knight 514]

Thanks Stato it was a good listen on the way home. I don't understand those still holding out hope for JJ.

[AUbritt 611]

Stat, thanks for this. Very interesting and iinformative discussion. I realize now how much Jeremy Johnson has let us down. I am not knocking him, because I know that he is surely beating himself up. I hope he gets it together and can return to add the needed spark this team needs. I feel like Sean White is doing the best he can with his lack of college experience and I applaud his efforts. We were talking about a lack of a tight end during the game yesterday, too. I was glad to see more explosive plays this week on offense. A step in the right direction, I guess. You gave me some hope when you said it wasn't a lack of talent and that we were close if we could get the quarterback play up to what it needs to be.

I feel like our defensive struggles with work themselves out when the defense sees/feels success from the offense.

Oh, and what did you think about those wishbone plays?

As always, great analysis. Thanks, again and War Eagle!!!

On defense, I think we are going to see continued "hit & miss" primarily because of the youth movement. AU played out of the 3-4 for the majority of the game and I believe the coaches wanted to do so against San Jose State to work on it for the future. This hurt the run-defense because it exposed some weaknesses up front but will be for the best in the long run. Credit to Al Borges for utilizing his TE's against the 3-4 look. AU struggled in coverage on pass-plays and then Al would gash the defense with slashing runs inside.

There is some good news for the defense as they appear to play better as the game progresses. The AU defense allows 6.8 yards per play in the first-half and 4.8 during the second-half. They allow 58.3% on 3rd downs in the first-half and 35.5% during the second-half. They have allowed 6.3 yards per rush in the first-half during the last 4 games and 4.4 yards during the second-half. I believe pass-rush will continue to be a major issue but it will help if the defense can come up with some key turnovers. Expecting 4 like they did against San Jose is wishing for too much though.

The next 11 days will be critical in deciding what direction the pass-offense will take and who will be pulling the trigger. Sean White has been named the starter the past two games but that has never been concrete it will remain that way. If Auburn cannot make plays in the passing game, I see only 2 possible wins remaining on the schedule.

Looking back at the period of 2009-2014, I sorted the games Auburn faced, when the opponent finished the season winning at least 70 percent of their games.

I then broke down the pass-rating and number of impact plays in those games against quality opponents and here is what I found....

Auburn was competitive (within 6 points) in 13 games, compiling a record of 9-4. During those 13 games, Auburn had an average pass-rating of 141.1 and generated an average of 9 impact plays or plays of 15-yards or more.

There were 14 games, Auburn was defeated by 7 points or more (0-14). During those 14 games, the pass-rating average was 108.9 and the offense averaged only 6 impact plays per game.

Through 5 games, Auburn has a pass-rating of 123.7 and are averaging only 5 impact plays per game.

But Sean's QB rating was higher than 145 (if I recall from the podcast, 150 something). It seems like we're facing a similar dilemma to the one we have/had at RB -- do we play the solid guy, or the one more likely to break for more impact plays?

Also, I was shocked to hear that this team has the 3rd best avg per play on non-impact plays of the past 25 Auburn teams. But could that just be because we are moving down the field methodically? I mean, that's sort of the way Peyton runs and Sean has passed, so far. Steady, with few impact plays.

[AURealist 2,185]

Thanks Stato it was a good listen on the way home. I don't understand those still holding out hope for JJ.

I think Gus is holding out hope for JJ, so him coming back is a possibility. Gus has been finding ways to get him into the game, so maybe he's hoping JJ will acclimate enough to play at the QB position at some point.

[Auburnguy101 325]

Stat, thanks for this. Very interesting and iinformative discussion. I realize now how much Jeremy Johnson has let us down. I am not knocking him, because I know that he is surely beating himself up. I hope he gets it together and can return to add the needed spark this team needs. I feel like Sean White is doing the best he can with his lack of college experience and I applaud his efforts. We were talking about a lack of a tight end during the game yesterday, too. I was glad to see more explosive plays this week on offense. A step in the right direction, I guess. You gave me some hope when you said it wasn't a lack of talent and that we were close if we could get the quarterback play up to what it needs to be.

I feel like our defensive struggles with work themselves out when the defense sees/feels success from the offense.

Oh, and what did you think about those wishbone plays?

As always, great analysis. Thanks, again and War Eagle!!!

On defense, I think we are going to see continued "hit & miss" primarily because of the youth movement. AU played out of the 3-4 for the majority of the game and I believe the coaches wanted to do so against San Jose State to work on it for the future. This hurt the run-defense because it exposed some weaknesses up front but will be for the best in the long run. Credit to Al Borges for utilizing his TE's against the 3-4 look. AU struggled in coverage on pass-plays and then Al would gash the defense with slashing runs inside.

There is some good news for the defense as they appear to play better as the game progresses. The AU defense allows 6.8 yards per play in the first-half and 4.8 during the second-half. They allow 58.3% on 3rd downs in the first-half and 35.5% during the second-half. They have allowed 6.3 yards per rush in the first-half during the last 4 games and 4.4 yards during the second-half. I believe pass-rush will continue to be a major issue but it will help if the defense can come up with some key turnovers. Expecting 4 like they did against San Jose is wishing for too much though.

The next 11 days will be critical in deciding what direction the pass-offense will take and who will be pulling the trigger. Sean White has been named the starter the past two games but that has never been concrete it will remain that way. If Auburn cannot make plays in the passing game, I see only 2 possible wins remaining on the schedule.

Looking back at the period of 2009-2014, I sorted the games Auburn faced, when the opponent finished the season winning at least 70 percent of their games.

I then broke down the pass-rating and number of impact plays in those games against quality opponents and here is what I found....

Auburn was competitive (within 6 points) in 13 games, compiling a record of 9-4. During those 13 games, Auburn had an average pass-rating of 141.1 and generated an average of 9 impact plays or plays of 15-yards or more.

There were 14 games, Auburn was defeated by 7 points or more (0-14). During those 14 games, the pass-rating average was 108.9 and the offense averaged only 6 impact plays per game.

Through 5 games, Auburn has a pass-rating of 123.7 and are averaging only 5 impact plays per game.

But Sean's QB rating was higher than 145 (if I recall from the podcast, 150 something). It seems like we're facing a similar dilemma to the one we have/had at RB -- do we play the solid guy, or the one more likely to break for more impact plays?

Also, I was shocked to hear that this team has the 3rd best avg per play on non-impact plays of the past 25 Auburn teams. But could that just be because we are moving down the field methodically? I mean, that's sort of the way Peyton runs and Sean has passed, so far. Steady, with few impact plays.

I actually think you bring up a good point. I know it appears that I've been ragging on SW in other threads, but I never said he was a bad QB, I've just said he's not a good fit in what Gus wants to do. As pointed out, he seems like a game-manager type of QB, would be perfect for LSU, UGA, UAT, etc. However, this offense needs a playmaker at the QB position, and this is where I believe the coaches are struggling with. Do you go with a QB who has a limited ceiling, but can be dependable, or do you go with the QB who has unlimited potential and if his gets his head right, we can do some special things? Also, Gus has to ask himself if either QB is the future of the program. If the coach believes the season is already a wash and neither is the future, I'd say put in SW for the rest of the season. However, if the coach feels that the season can be saved, I'd put in JJ and see if he can regain his confidence, because what's the worst that could happen, JJ not performing well again? Also, I would run the offense SW has been running in the past 2 games with JJ against UK and see how he does...

[Auburnguy101 325]

Thanks Stato it was a good listen on the way home. I don't understand those still holding out hope for JJ.

I think Gus is holding out hope for JJ, so him coming back is a possibility. Gus has been finding ways to get him into the game, so maybe he's hoping JJ will acclimate enough to play at the QB position at some point.

@WarKnight: Well, you'll probably be shocked when you see him soon. I didn't buy all of the hype with JJ, but at the same time, I know he's gifted. I believe these last two games have been telling as well. SW has been a game-manager in both games, asked not to lose, while JJ gets his head straight. I believe the coaches are thinking about going back to JJ, and it may be in the UK game, where he will start. It's funny that none of the offensive staff has committed or out-right said this is SW's team and he is our QB. If it was so obvious, like you think it is, why not just say SW is our QB? Again, the coaches know that JJ's potential could change everything, and they are hoping that with this time off, he has learned something. Again, don't be surprised to see JJ start against UK...

[AURealist 2,185]

Did I miss the report card thread? Where is it?!

[AUbritt 611]

Did I miss the report card thread? Where is it?!

I didn't see it, but Stat talks through the report card on the podcast.

I'm guessing he's just busy.

If I recall correctly, we passed on 2 out of 3 (offense and special teams). The D failed, but they did get a bonus point for the 4 turnovers.