homersapien 10,149 Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-l-grenier/putins-gift_b_8351970.html .....But is it unlikely that greater brutality, Russian airstrikes, and more Shiite fighters from Iraq will finally subdue Assad's domestic enemies, or that the Russian president's steel-toothed charm will suffice to win over the regional powers who support them, given their perceived interests. It is far more likely that Putin will find himself trapped in an open-ended Syrian civil war at best, or beset on all sides as the protector of a besieged Syrian rump state at worst. The alternative of ignominious withdrawal will not appeal to him at all. If and when he gets to that point, Putin is far more likely to perceive a common interest with the U.S. in a negotiated solution than he does at present. Moreover, he will be in a far better position than we are to deal with regime factions and stakeholders in arranging for the Assads' facilitated departure, and to help broker some sort of loose, decentralized governing coalition, to include relatively more responsible elements of the opposition. He will not get there willingly, but the smart betting is that he will get there. It is also not clear that the Russians can produce a smooth transition of power, even if they are motivated to try. But the chances are much greater with them than without them..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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