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Interesting take on Russian involvement in Syria.


homersapien

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-l-grenier/putins-gift_b_8351970.html

.....But is it unlikely that greater brutality, Russian airstrikes, and more Shiite fighters from Iraq will finally subdue Assad's domestic enemies, or that the Russian president's steel-toothed charm will suffice to win over the regional powers who support them, given their perceived interests. It is far more likely that Putin will find himself trapped in an open-ended Syrian civil war at best, or beset on all sides as the protector of a besieged Syrian rump state at worst. The alternative of ignominious withdrawal will not appeal to him at all.

If and when he gets to that point, Putin is far more likely to perceive a common interest with the U.S. in a negotiated solution than he does at present. Moreover, he will be in a far better position than we are to deal with regime factions and stakeholders in arranging for the Assads' facilitated departure, and to help broker some sort of loose, decentralized governing coalition, to include relatively more responsible elements of the opposition. He will not get there willingly, but the smart betting is that he will get there. It is also not clear that the Russians can produce a smooth transition of power, even if they are motivated to try. But the chances are much greater with them than without them.....

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I'm good with it. It's time that the United States back away from Syria a bit and focus on other areas. Let Russia spend some $$$ and put their resources on the line.

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I wonder how the Muslim population in Russia is going to respond. So far, reports say the Russians aren't doing much to mitigate collateral damage.

I wonder how Putin will react when the terrorist attacks begin.

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Syria presents quite a conundrum to the United States. Our default position for some time has been a desire for the removal of Assad, much like our position with Libya relative to Gaddafi. However, the current situation in Syria and neighboring Iraq, juxtaposed with post-Gaddafi Libya illustrates that Assad's removal is not likely to have a positive outcome at this time. More importantly, the United States always had its hands tied with regard to Syria, as directly attacking a Russian ally (their only one in the Middle East) is the kind of thing that starts much larger wars. The United States government cannot formally state any of that, regardless of whether they recognize it or not (and I think they do).

It would not surprise me at any point to learn that the United States has quietly given Russia its approval.

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Syria presents quite a conundrum to the United States. Our default position for some time has been a desire for the removal of Assad, much like our position with Libya relative to Gaddafi. However, the current situation in Syria and neighboring Iraq, juxtaposed with post-Gaddafi Libya illustrates that Assad's removal is not likely to have a positive outcome at this time. More importantly, the United States always had its hands tied with regard to Syria, as directly attacking a Russian ally (their only one in the Middle East) is the kind of thing that starts much larger wars. The United States government cannot formally state any of that, regardless of whether they recognize it or not (and I think they do).

It would not surprise me at any point to learn that the United States has quietly given Russia its approval.

Honestly I don't think we have done it quietly....it's not yell from the mountaintop loud but more like a medium toned "Go get them".

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