Time to focus on the actual playmakers

[StatTiger 3,188]

  Kamryn Pettway's latest injury was a step backward for a Gus Malzahn offense reliant upon the running game, but a loss Auburn should be accustomed to this season. Having both running backs healthy and available sounded great on paper, but in reality, it was something possible only five times during Auburn's last 21 games. There have been just five occasions where both backs had at least ten carries during the same game. Despite not having the two backs readily available, Auburn has averaged 258-yards rushing over the past 21 games. For an offense running the ball 65 percent of the time, having a healthy Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson would have allowed Auburn to lean upon their running game. Though it obviously could be an advantage having both running backs, there was a detriment to the offense too.

Texas A&M:

  With Texas A&M allowing over 200-yards rushing during four of their last five games, the temptation was there for Auburn to rely heavily on their running game to register their 7th victory of the season. With Kamryn Pettway out of the picture, the Tigers must either look to their reserve running backs or open up the passing game. I believe we will see a combination of the two this Saturday in College Station. Gus Malzahn has been reluctant playing his reserve running backs during meaningful snaps the past two seasons. Kam Martin, Malik Miller, and Devan Barrett have 132 combined carries the past two seasons, but only one has come with the score tied or Auburn trailing.

  The game plan Saturday will require Auburn utilizing Kerryon Johnson in an efficient manner so that he can contribute late in the game. This won't be an easy task if Johnson has 20 carries during the first-half. If Gus Malzahn elects to lean on his reserves, Auburn will continue to rely heavily on their running game. A heavy run-attack is likely a good game plan for defeating the Aggies, but it won't work against Georgia or Alabama. Gus Malzahn has won primarily by out-manning teams up front, compiling a 20-3 conference record with over 220-yards rushing. When held under 220-yards rushing, Auburn is 2-12 in conference play.

  Malik Miller's fumble against Arkansas was the first of his career but could still linger in the minds of the Auburn coaches. Kam Martin has three career fumbles from 81 touches (27.0) and Kerryon Johnson has two career fumbles from 450 touches (225.0). Kamryn Pettway has four fumbles from 291 offensive touches (72.8). Protecting the football is high on the list of essentials for Gus Malzahn, which might explain his reluctance at times to play younger running backs. Kam Martin has been dealing with an ankle injury but he is healthier than he has been over the past several weeks. Despite having only 81 career touches, Kam Martin has produced nine plays of 15-yards or more.

Time to out-scheme the competition:

  If Auburn is to finish the season on a high note, Jarrett Stidham and Auburn's wide receivers will need to play a significant role. The 2017 Auburn Tigers are not built to beat a great defense, primarily relying on their running game. Beating Georgia and Alabama will require generating explosive plays, which dictates having success in the passing game. During the seven previous seasons under Gus Malzahn's offense, Auburn had their most success, when generating plays of 15-yards or more. During the games the Tigers had at least six plays of 15-yards or more against Alabama, Auburn averaged 31.8 PPG. When held under six such plays, Auburn averaged 13.0 PPG. Against the Georgia Bulldogs, Auburn averaged 30.8 PPG with at least six impact plays and only 9.0 PPG under six impact plays.

  From 1986-2016, Auburn is 11-2 versus Georgia and 8-2 against Alabama when the Tigers have a pass rating of at least 130. When held to under a 130 pass-rating, the Tigers are 3-14-1 against Georgia and 8-13-0 versus the Tide. Of Auburn's 64 plays of 15-yards or more this season, 62.5 percent have come via the passing game. Auburn's wide receivers have accounted for 44 of Auburn's 64 impact plays this season, which should factor into how Chip Lindsey will scheme against Georgia and Alabama. Kerryon Johnson will undoubtedly be a featured component of the offense, but Auburn must show they can pass to set up the run to increase their opportunity for success.

Old habits are hard to break:

  Gus Malzahn's offense has 64 conference games in the Auburn books, running the football 67 percent of the time. When Auburn has run the ball less than 65 percent in conference play, the Tigers are 7-20 and 2-11 during games Auburn ran the football less than 59 percent. During the fifteen games, Auburn ran the ball less than 60 percent of the time; the Tigers did score at least 23 points on seven occasions. Kevin Steele's defense has held 16 of 21 opponents to 23 points or less the past two seasons, which means Auburn could be competitive with a slight adjustment in their offensive schemes. Auburn under Malzahn's offense is 32-3 in conference play with a pass-rating of 130 or better and 6-2 when held to under 200-yards rushing.

Jarrett Stidham:

  Gus Malzahn has mentioned Auburn being balanced several times this season, but he is referencing yardage and not actual plays. Running the ball ten times to obtain 50-yards and connecting on one deep pass for 50-yards is not "true" balance. The kind of balance needed to beat Georgia and Alabama will require more pass attempts but in an efficient manner. Jarrett Stidham and the Auburn pass offense has been incredibly productive, throwing on first down this season. Despite the success, Auburn has run the football over 75 percent of the time on first down, averaging only 7.6 pass attempts on first down. During the 11 games against Power-5 competition, when Malzahn's offense attempted at least eight first down passes for at least 7.5 yards per attempt, Auburn averaged 36.4 PPG.

  Throwing more frequently on first down would eliminate some of the predictability in the Auburn offense and would allow Jarrett Stidham a higher chance of success against a great defense. Stidham is No. 15 nationally with a passer rating of 191.9 on first down but has averaged only 6.4 pass attempts on first down in conference play. As accurate as Stidham has been this season, it is important to remember he is just a sophomore and still growing as a quarterback at the collegiate level. He has a pass rating of only 56.8 when Auburn trails on the scoreboard and a 123.8 rating facing third and at least seven yards to convert. Placing him into too many obvious passing situations won't likely end well for the Auburn offense. He has converted only 28 percent of Auburn's third and long situations, throwing the football.

[WarTim 3,456]

Thanks Stat!!!

[wdefromtx 3,159]

Thanks Stat!!!

 

Quick Somebody copy and email this to Gus.....paste it on his windshield, at the bathroom stall.........everywhere!!!!! 

 

Make it a Post it note!!!

 

LOL

[milehighfan 1,240]

Do you honestly think Gus would pay any attention to it?

[I_M4_AU 7,801]

1 hour ago, milehighfan said:

Do you honestly think Gus would pay any attention to it?

Of course he would, he would just misinterpret it.

[jAUSon 2,836]

Thank you Stat

[gr82be 14,423]

2 hours ago, milehighfan said:

Do you honestly think Gus would pay any attention to it?

Maybe add it to the Waffle House menu.  

[bigbird 60,499]

2 hours ago, milehighfan said:

Do you honestly think Gus would pay any attention to it?

Title it

"Trick Plays:  A comprehensive guide to outsmarting your oppenent"

[oldaufeller 367]

Title It Competition: [Courtesy of BigBird]

"48 Sure Fire Running Plays to Beat Your Opponent"

or

"How to Effectively use Up-The-Middle, Up-The-Middle, Short-Pass, Punt"

[Beaker 2,457]

2 hours ago, bigbird said:

Title it

"Trick Plays:  A comprehensive guide to outsmarting your oppenent"

Now that's funny.