Path to a National Title

[AlaskanFAN 1,665]

Our two losses were by a total of 11 points which looks good.

Our loss to Clemson looks good because 1) it’s Clemson 2) our defense played great 3) Clemson lost to Syracuse after their starting QB got hurt 4) We need them to beat Miami 5) it was so early in the season

Our loss to LSU was 1) self inflicted by the coaching staff 2) LSU is a ranked team and on a tear beating teams since the lose to Troy, so it looks good for us.

Beating the #1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs is a huge feather.

Beating the #1 Crimson tide, who by all accounts according to the media is by far the best team in the nation, would be an enormous feather in the cap.

The SEC championship would be a re-match against a top 10 Georgia.

Wining the SEC championship carries a lot or weight because it is the SEC championship!

Winning our last three games vs #1, #1, #9 (or higher after this weekend) is unheard of in today’s college football and the committee will reward that. 

This weekend Wisconsin plays Michigan.

Next weekend Ohio State vs Michigan and Clemson vs South Carolina and Oklahoma vs West Virginia and we have the Iron Bowl.

crazy stuff can happen in the next two weeks before we get to Championship weekend.

Then in the conference championship games, Clem vs Mia, most likely OU vs TCU, OSU vs WIS, AU vs GEOR. Yes I believe we beat bama. We are in a zone and they have to many injuries to overcome.

All the teams listed above are currently in the top 4 and can be knocked out of the top 4. The committee put a high price tag on conference championships, they have clearly stated that in the past!!!!

Patience grasshoppers, patience. 

My final 4 in no particular order: OU, AU, Clem and Miami. (Miami looses to Clemson, but the committee takes them over tOSU who beat Wisconsin in the big 10 title game)

[bigbird 60,359]

If we win out,

1. ACC

2. AU

3. OU

4.Cluster

[tbone1430 1,346]

2 minutes ago, bigbird said:

If we win out,

1. ACC

2. AU

3. OU

4.Cluster

Would love for us to play OU and get revenge on Mayfield then play Clemson in the natty and get revenge there too! Would be a perfect ending to the season.

[AlaskanFAN 1,665]

17 minutes ago, AlaskanFAN said:

Our two losses were by a total of 11 points which looks good.

Our loss to Clemson looks good because 1) it’s Clemson 2) our defense played great 3) Clemson lost to Syracuse after their starting QB got hurt 4) We need them to beat Miami 5) it was so early in the season

Our loss to LSU was 1) self inflicted by the coaching staff 2) LSU is a ranked team and on a tear beating teams since the lose to Troy, so it looks good for us.

Beating the #1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs is a huge feather.

Beating the #1 Crimson tide, who by all accounts according to the media is by far the best team in the nation, would be an enormous feather in the cap.

The SEC championship would be a re-match against a top 10 Georgia.

Wining the SEC championship carries a lot or weight because it is the SEC championship!

Winning our last three games vs #1, #1, #9 (or higher after this weekend) is unheard of in today’s college football and the committee will reward that. 

This weekend Wisconsin plays Michigan.

Next weekend Ohio State vs Michigan and Clemson vs South Carolina and Oklahoma vs West Virginia and we have the Iron Bowl.

crazy stuff can happen in the next two weeks before we get to Championship weekend.

Then in the conference championship games, Clem vs Mia, most likely OU vs TCU, OSU vs WIS, AU vs GEOR. Yes I believe we beat bama. We are in a zone and they have to many injuries to overcome.

All the teams listed above are currently in the top 4 and can be knocked out of the top 4. The committee put a high price tag on conference championships, they have clearly stated that in the past!!!!

Patience grasshoppers, patience. 

My final 4 in no particular order: OU, AU, Clem and Miami. (Miami looses to Clemson, but the committee takes them over tOSU who beat Wisconsin in the big 10 title game)

See all this stuff I wrote up here, the cliff notes are below, 

5 minutes ago, bigbird said:

If we win out,

1. ACC

2. AU

3. OU

4.Cluster

Well played Sir, Well played

[lca408 366]

1 hour ago, AlaskanFAN said:

My final 4 in no particular order: OU, AU, Clem and Miami. (Miami looses to Clemson, but the committee takes them over tOSU who beat Wisconsin in the big 10 title game)

I doubt the committee would take a 1 loss Miami non-ACC champ over a 1 loss Bammer. Just saying. I know their resumes would be similar but it just comes down to how good they think those teams are and UAT is likely to win out over a just now resurging Miami team. I think the only way the ACC gets 2 teams in is if OSU beats Whiskey and UGA loses to GA Tech before beating the West champion in Atlanta. UGA would be eliminated by virtue of losing too late in the season, the West champ would be eliminated and Whiskey would be gone. That's chaos.

 

[TigerHorn 1,351]

4 hours ago, AlaskanFAN said:

Our two losses were by a total of 11 points which looks good.

Our loss to Clemson looks good because 1) it’s Clemson 2) our defense played great 3) Clemson lost to Syracuse after their starting QB got hurt 4) We need them to beat Miami 5) it was so early in the season

Our loss to LSU was 1) self inflicted by the coaching staff 2) LSU is a ranked team and on a tear beating teams since the lose to Troy, so it looks good for us.

Beating the #1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs is a huge feather.

Beating the #1 Crimson tide, who by all accounts according to the media is by far the best team in the nation, would be an enormous feather in the cap.

The SEC championship would be a re-match against a top 10 Georgia.

Wining the SEC championship carries a lot or weight because it is the SEC championship!

Winning our last three games vs #1, #1, #9 (or higher after this weekend) is unheard of in today’s college football and the committee will reward that. 

This weekend Wisconsin plays Michigan.

Next weekend Ohio State vs Michigan and Clemson vs South Carolina and Oklahoma vs West Virginia and we have the Iron Bowl.

crazy stuff can happen in the next two weeks before we get to Championship weekend.

Then in the conference championship games, Clem vs Mia, most likely OU vs TCU, OSU vs WIS, AU vs GEOR. Yes I believe we beat bama. We are in a zone and they have to many injuries to overcome.

All the teams listed above are currently in the top 4 and can be knocked out of the top 4. The committee put a high price tag on conference championships, they have clearly stated that in the past!!!!

Patience grasshoppers, patience. 

My final 4 in no particular order: OU, AU, Clem and Miami. (Miami looses to Clemson, but the committee takes them over tOSU who beat Wisconsin in the big 10 title game)

Man, there are a LOT of lose-able games left! Meatchicken could wreck the B1G with two wins, and make their season. They will be motivated! Muschamp just might pull one out vs Clemson, who could then knock of The U in the ACCCG. OU could well go down to WV, TCU, or even both. All that happens (consider Saban's MNC year at LSU - total chaos at the end of the season) and AU wins out, we could go into the playoffs seeded #1 vs......who exactly? 

Bammer would be in by virtue of sitting at home and being the last 1 loss team around that didn't lose during championship weekend. 

2 loss Clemson over 1 loss HTH Miami? That would be a tough call.

B1G in shambles, does a PAC team sneak back in now? 

Do you take one of the B12's cluster? 

Fun to think about, but just win baby.......

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

4 hours ago, Scotty2Hotty said:

Don't underestimate the significance of winning a conference championship game, esp since Wisconsin will be undefeated. Ohio St may very well leap Alabama.

Especially as bad as AU is going to beat uat. I think this will be nick’s worst defeat since he has been at uat point wise. 

[Scotty2Hotty 520]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye 7 said:

Especially as bad as AU is going to beat uat. I think this will be nick’s worst defeat since he has been at uat point wise. 

Man I will buy you any one 12 oz beverage you want if that happens.

Unfortunately, I don't see it. Hurts has never not scored with the game on the line. He is the freaking Terminator. He's like Nick Marshall, blank-faced, nothing fazes him. Not saying it's impossible to blow them out because of their depleted LBs, but I just don't see Hurts being rendered meaningless come the 4th quarter. He isn't an elite scrambler like Cam or JF, but once he hits his stride, he is deceptively fast and rarely caught.

My biggest concern always has been Ridley. He breaks coverages easily and we have shown the last 2 games that our secondary allows huge pockets for WRs to run in. Hurts to Ridley always seems to break a D's momentum.

[Randman5000 4,223]

8 minutes ago, Scotty2Hotty said:

Man I will buy you any one 12 oz beverage you want if that happens.

Unfortunately, I don't see it. Hurts has never not scored with the game on the line. He is the freaking Terminator. He's like Nick Marshall, blank-faced, nothing fazes him. Not saying it's impossible to blow them out because of their depleted LBs, but I just don't see Hurts being rendered meaningless come the 4th quarter. He isn't an elite scrambler like Cam or JF, but once he hits his stride, he is deceptively fast and rarely caught.

My biggest concern always has been Ridley. He breaks coverages easily and we have shown the last 2 games that our secondary allows huge pockets for WRs to run in. Hurts to Ridley always seems to break a D's momentum.

Agreed. No one blows out Bama. They're the Duke of football, you think you have them and they'll start raining threes. 

Our secondary is susceptible. If Georgia hits two of those three potential touchdowns, we are nail biting to the end. Bama rarely makes those mistakes and they sure aren't going to be getting unsportsmanlike conduct penalties or holding like Georgia. It's going to be close, IMO. 

People need to hold their horses

[Scotty2Hotty 520]

15 minutes ago, Randman5000 said:

Agreed. No one blows out Bama. They're the Duke of football, you think you have them and they'll start raining threes. 

Our secondary is susceptible. If Georgia hits two of those three potential touchdowns, we are nail biting to the end. Bama rarely makes those mistakes and they sure aren't going to be getting unsportsmanlike conduct penalties or holding like Georgia. It's going to be close, IMO. 

People need to hold their horses

Agreed with our secondary. But I don't believe it would have mattered with Georgia because they couldn't run, not with their RBs and def not with Fromm.

Again, the biggest difference with Alabama is Hurts. He is so difficult to contain if you don't get to him with the initial rush. His QB draws and sideline-open lanes are almost impossible to cover, esp on 3rd Down. He always gets to that 1st Down marker. Fromm was easy to sack after Holland missed him. That's when Hurts will take off.

[Randman5000 4,223]

3 hours ago, Scotty2Hotty said:

Agreed with our secondary. But I don't believe it would have mattered with Georgia because they couldn't run, not with their RBs and def not with Fromm.

Again, the biggest difference with Alabama is Hurts. He is so difficult to contain if you don't get to him with the initial rush. His QB draws and sideline-open lanes are almost impossible to cover, esp on 3rd Down. He always gets to that 1st Down marker. Fromm was easy to sack after Holland missed him. That's when Hurts will take off.

Yep, our run defense and defensive lineman can make plays but if we flush him from the pocket its going to be a challenge, LBs will have to make sure tackles and DBs will have to stick to receivers. We did a good job against Watson early last season but Hurts will put alot of pressure on us. 

[yngwie1995 2,227]

19 hours ago, kd4au said:

Hope your right, but I wouldn't bet the farm on them not putting bammer in if they can. They will only have one loss.

Well, I could see them making it also, but I can't fathom them (#3 SEC, 1-loss to us) making it in and us being left out (#1 SEC, 2-loss, @Clemson and @LSU, and having just beaten bama). Hopefully, we beat bama, and beat them big, and there would be no discussion.

[jtauburntiger 119]

16 hours ago, AlaskanFAN said:

Our two losses were by a total of 11 points which looks good.

Our loss to Clemson looks good because 1) it’s Clemson 2) our defense played great 3) Clemson lost to Syracuse after their starting QB got hurt 4) We need them to beat Miami 5) it was so early in the season

Our loss to LSU was 1) self inflicted by the coaching staff 2) LSU is a ranked team and on a tear beating teams since the lose to Troy, so it looks good for us.

Beating the #1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs is a huge feather.

Beating the #1 Crimson tide, who by all accounts according to the media is by far the best team in the nation, would be an enormous feather in the cap.

The SEC championship would be a re-match against a top 10 Georgia.

Wining the SEC championship carries a lot or weight because it is the SEC championship!

Winning our last three games vs #1, #1, #9 (or higher after this weekend) is unheard of in today’s college football and the committee will reward that. 

This weekend Wisconsin plays Michigan.

Next weekend Ohio State vs Michigan and Clemson vs South Carolina and Oklahoma vs West Virginia and we have the Iron Bowl.

crazy stuff can happen in the next two weeks before we get to Championship weekend.

Then in the conference championship games, Clem vs Mia, most likely OU vs TCU, OSU vs WIS, AU vs GEOR. Yes I believe we beat bama. We are in a zone and they have to many injuries to overcome.

All the teams listed above are currently in the top 4 and can be knocked out of the top 4. The committee put a high price tag on conference championships, they have clearly stated that in the past!!!!

Patience grasshoppers, patience. 

My final 4 in no particular order: OU, AU, Clem and Miami. (Miami looses to Clemson, but the committee takes them over tOSU who beat Wisconsin in the big 10 title game)

i have not read the rest of this thread yet.   but i feel confident a 1 loss Bama will get in before a 2 loss OSU or a 1 loss Miami 

[jtauburntiger 119]

10 hours ago, Scotty2Hotty said:

Agreed with our secondary. But I don't believe it would have mattered with Georgia because they couldn't run, not with their RBs and def not with Fromm.

Again, the biggest difference with Alabama is Hurts. He is so difficult to contain if you don't get to him with the initial rush. His QB draws and sideline-open lanes are almost impossible to cover, esp on 3rd Down. He always gets to that 1st Down marker. Fromm was easy to sack after Holland missed him. That's when Hurts will take off.

Agree 100%   Hurts changes everything from the UGA game.  I said that in the stands saturday.   Hurts turns a couple of those sacks into 15 yard gains.  -  and he can shift the momentum quick in those situations.   He is not a game manager anymore.  He is their MVP

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

11 hours ago, Scotty2Hotty said:

Man I will buy you any one 12 oz beverage you want if that happens.

Unfortunately, I don't see it. Hurts has never not scored with the game on the line. He is the freaking Terminator. He's like Nick Marshall, blank-faced, nothing fazes him. Not saying it's impossible to blow them out because of their depleted LBs, but I just don't see Hurts being rendered meaningless come the 4th quarter. He isn't an elite scrambler like Cam or JF, but once he hits his stride, he is deceptively fast and rarely caught.

My biggest concern always has been Ridley. He breaks coverages easily and we have shown the last 2 games that our secondary allows huge pockets for WRs to run in. Hurts to Ridley always seems to break a D's momentum.

Look back and you will see that jH usually finds Ridley because he can extend time by using his feet. He also escapes arm tackles well but I think our guys will put him down. Like I said we need to concentrate on JH.

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

By the way here is another comparison

 uga - uat common opponents 

msu

Uga won 31-3

uat won 31-24

Tenn

uga won 41-0

uat won 45-7

so somebody explain to me why they think uat is so much better than uga.i don’t think they are. 

[AlaskanFAN 1,665]

bama 41 vs csu 23

bama 27 vs aTm 19

bama 24 vs lsu 10

bama 31 vs msu 24

They are very vulnerable and beatable.

They are missing 4 linebackers and possiblely their starting left guard.

Bama’s D was giving up 66 yards rushing per game. The last 2 games (lsu & msu) they have given up an average of 160 yards rushing. 

Bama’s O averages 270 rushing and 203 passing. Georgia averages 256 and 168. Sound familiar (after our game).

X factor - our field goal kicker has made 5 field goals of 50+, theirs has not attempted one greater than 50+.

The key to this game is the trenches!

Who ever shuts down the run game wins.

[Beaker 2,457]

The x-factor is J Hurts.   If we can prevent him from tossing the ball to an open Ridley, we win.    Eliminate that connection and we have the talent to win.

I hope the coaches stay on par and not try to get gimmicky or coach scared.

[Eagle Eye 7]

From Playoff History we know a 2 loss Conference Champion loses out to a 1 loss non-Conference Champion.  All we can do is just win.

[LKEEL75 2,566]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

From Playoff History we know a 2 loss Conference Champion loses out to a 1 loss non-Conference Champion.  All we can do is just win.

THIS^^^  They set the precedent last year by taking OSU over PSU.  Now the difference between AU & PSU is definitely strength of schedule.  

[Linayus 676]

I know a lot of people (myself included) would love to redeem the Sugar Bowl loss to OU last year but even with a terrible OU defense this season I am absolutely terrified to face Baker Mayfield again. That is the only team I am legitimately concerned about matching up with. Mayfield is a nightmare for our defense - even without the weapons he had last year. We would have to run the clock and hope for him to just have an off game throwing the ball.

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

2 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

From Playoff History we know a 2 loss Conference Champion loses out to a 1 loss non-Conference Champion.  All we can do is just win.

Not true they looked at PSU’s bad losses  and made a hat decission had PSU’s losses been to better teams and closer then that would have changed things. The one thing the committee has shown is it does count bad losses high on their list.

[AU64 10,122]

2 hours ago, Eagle Eye 7 said:

Not true they looked at PSU’s bad losses  and made a hat decission had PSU’s losses been to better teams and closer then that would have changed things. The one thing the committee has shown is it does count bad losses high on their list.

There is so little history with the playoff committee that I am not sure that you can draw  many conclusions from the past .

 Also, the make up of the committee changes from year to year so it is difficult to know if their  thinking has changed on certain issues. 

[gr82b4au 5,568]

5 hours ago, Beaker said:

The x-factor is J Hurts.   If we can prevent him from tossing the ball to an open Ridley, we win.    Eliminate that connection and we have the talent to win.

I agree that J Hurts is the x factor but not because of his arm. He extends plays with his legs. He turns a 3rd and 6 into a 15 yard run and then their offense starts over. 

[Beaker 2,457]

3 minutes ago, gr82b4au said:

I agree that J Hurts is the x factor but not because of his arm. He extends plays with his legs. He turns a 3rd and 6 into a 15 yard run and then their offense starts over. 

And buys time to hit Ridley.  We are saying the same thing - running or passing, Hurts is the biggest variable.   

There won't be blowout in the Ironbowl.