Inside the numbers with Bama

[Auburn1954 21]

Those numbers show the game plans will be obvious. It will be the same as Georgia. Stop the run, and that includes Hurt forcing him to pass. Run Johnson up the middle forcing them to stack the box and when they do sweep Stove around the ends. Their corners will have to move up to help their weak linebackers giving Auburn  receivers one on one. If Stidham is on, game over. Auburn wins 35 to 24.

There game plan will be the same. Stop Johnson, forcing Stidham to pass out of the RPO.

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

Based on the the last couple Ironbowls:

1., Score TDs instead of FGS when we get into the redzone.

2. CATCH the ball when Hurts throws it right to us - and he will.

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

9 hours ago, homersapien said:

Been an Auburn fan long?  

(I sincerely hope you are right, and if you are, I'll be the first back here to tell you so.)

Yea been one probably longer than you have been alive. ? and I’ll be here  when you come back to tell me so. Good lord willing and the creek don’t rise.

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

9 hours ago, AURex said:

If you learn to spell, people might pay more attention.

Seems like you pay attention real well. And I don’t know DK on a first name bases like you so I might not spell his his name as well. Folks like you should just get off message boards. Most of us are responding from our iPhones so our English may not pass your test teacher. You should just allow people to belive you are a jerk rather than open your mouth and prove it. WDE

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

12 minutes ago, aucanucktiger said:

Based on the the last couple Ironbowls:

1., Score TDs instead of FGS when we get into the redzone.

2. CATCH the ball when Hurts throws it right to us - and he will.

You are exactly right . If you watch his passing he rarely is on the mark. Ridley makes some good catches with a lot of effort. If our DBs contest those balls turnovers will be plentiful.

[Linayus 676]

Bama has weaknesses - especially this year. The biggest threat is Jalen Hurts running the ball and extending drives as he is prone to do on 3rd and long because he doesn't want to force throws in tighter coverage. Our ends and LBs need to play smart and take good angles on him.

Some things to note (and many of these were provided by knowledgeable Bama fans):

1. LT is a weakness but their o-line in general is not as dominant as they have been. Their biggest runs are when they get forced to improvise and can bounce it outside.

2. Their d-line is not as dominant and their injuries at LB mean they don't get as much pressure on opposing QBs. Last year's success getting sacks and TFLs were in part because they rushed their OLBs a lot.

3. Jalen Hurts still cannot throw downfield. His success there is primarily on blown coverage where he can just throw the ball up and let his receivers go get it (usually by them slowing down).

One last thing - Bama will do certain plays on purpose (even letting Jalen take sacks) to set up other plays later in the game. Our d-line will need to be aware of this and not get complacent. Get their hands up in the air even if they think they have an easy sack. It will make him hesitate and either scramble away or just take the sack. Bama did this against State and it won them the game on that last drive because the rushers thought they had another sack.

This is by far the best chance we've had to win an Iron Bowl in several years. We better take advantage and seize the opportunity given to us!

[80Tiger 899]

1 minute ago, Linayus said:

Bama has weaknesses - especially this year. The biggest threat is Jalen Hurts running the ball and extending drives as he is prone to do on 3rd and long because he doesn't want to force throws in tighter coverage. Our ends and LBs need to play smart and take good angles on him.

Some things to note (and many of these were provided by knowledgeable Bama fans):

1. LT is a weakness but their o-line in general is not as dominant as they have been. Their biggest runs are when they get forced to improvise and can bounce it outside.

2. Their d-line is not as dominant and their injuries at LB mean they don't get as much pressure on opposing QBs. Last year's success getting sacks and TFLs were in part because they rushed their OLBs a lot.

3. Jalen Hurts still cannot throw downfield. His success there is primarily on blown coverage where he can just throw the ball up and let his receivers go get it (usually by them slowing down).

One last thing - Bama will do certain plays on purpose (even letting Jalen take sacks) to set up other plays later in the game. Our d-line will need to be aware of this and not get complacent. Get their hands up in the air even if they think they have an easy sack. It will make him hesitate and either scramble away or just take the sack. Bama did this against State and it won them the game on that last drive because the rushers thought they had another sack.

This is by far the best chance we've had to win an Iron Bowl in several years. We better take advantage and seize the opportunity given to us!

I'm sorry, but I don't think anyone calls a play to take a sack on purpose.

[auskull 239]

12 minutes ago, 80Tiger said:

One last thing - Bama will do certain plays on purpose (even letting Jalen take sacks) to set up other plays later in the game. Our d-line will need to be aware of this and not get complacent. Get their hands up in the air even if they think they have an easy sack. It will make him hesitate and either scramble away or just take the sack. Bama did this against State and it won them the game on that last drive because the rushers thought they had another sack.

Our D will take any sacks without second thoughts. In fact, I only hope Hurts gets used to taking sacks to set up these plays...later in the game. Most of your comments made sense to me but this UAT rational sounds more like someone forgot to take their medication.

[Linayus 676]

21 minutes ago, 80Tiger said:

I'm sorry, but I don't think anyone calls a play to take a sack on purpose.

 

1 minute ago, auskull said:

Our D will take any sacks without second thoughts. In fact, I only hope Hurts gets used to taking sacks to set up these plays...later in the game. Most of your comments made sense to me but this UAT rational sounds more like someone forgot to take their medication.

Okay guys, let me rephrase how I said that. lol The play is not intended for him to take sacks but if he is sacked on the setup plays, that's still fine with them. Obviously if they can execute the play and gain yardage, they will. If not, Jalen will protect the football and take a sack if needed to avoid turning the ball over. It's more about giving the defense a certain look and getting them to expect similar, then executing the play they want later in the game.

[homersapien 11,357]

2 hours ago, Eagle Eye 7 said:

Yea been one probably longer than you have been alive. ? and I’ll be here  when you come back to tell me so. Good lord willing and the creek don’t rise.

I doubt that.  Unless you are pushing 80. 

[RHN1975 302]

23 hours ago, kd4au said:

Hope we can add to that number, it shows that JH can be sacked, he can't be a threat on his back.

They are quick to tell you his stats would be much better if had not sat 3 full games because they were blowing people out. Take this into account and average in three more games and he is even with Stidham even counting the Clemson anomaly. 

[mustache eagle 2,397]

Regarding sacks - stidham has been sacked 6 more times with 67 more pass attempts.

both have been sacked about 10% of their pass attempts 

[Linayus 676]

Okay - about the sack stats - which is more alarming? Getting a sack on a QB who can burn defenses with his legs or a QB who is lucky to get 5 yards on a scramble?

[lionheartkc 6,150]

31 minutes ago, mustache eagle said:

Regarding sacks - stidham has been sacked 6 more times with 67 more pass attempts.

both have been sacked about 10% of their pass attempts 

And if you take away the Clemson game, where Stidham and our Line were still getting comfortable in the new offense, that all shifts pretty heavily in our favor.

In fact, it's hard to compare Auburn, statistically, to a team like bama, who returned their QB and didn't change their offense up much. The first 3 games were basically an entirely different Auburn team than the one that played the rest of the season, because it took those three games to get everyone comfortable and clicking, as can be expected with a brand new QB and a new offensive scheme.

The best thing you can do is compare head to head results against like opponents in the middle of the season. By looking at that, we're pretty even across the board.  Other than against LSU, Stidham had the better QBR against like opponents and overall. He also has more yards/attempt and more touchdowns. Hard to compare backs, since they run 2 (technically 3 with Hurts), but since Johnson leads the SEC, without playing in 2 games and limited in a couple of others, that seems like a foregone conclusion. We obviously own them in the kicking game with Carlson who can kick 50+ yarders while their kicker doesn't even try. The real battle is going to be who has the better lines and the better D.