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Circling the Wagons


OnthePlains

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Ok, so let’s move on from firing Gus because we know that isn’t happening right now. For the purposes of this thread lets assume he is safe through next season and I believe he is. 

Despite my own personal misgivings about Gus and the debacle we saw last Saturday, I do believe we can still beat UT, OM and A&M. If we do that and beat Liberty then at least we have a typical Gus season and no wheels come off.  How are we going to do that? I have no idea. But if we can find something that works well enough and the D returns to form it could happen. Assuming a bowl loss, based on Gus’s track record then 8-5 it is. If we win the bowl then ok 9-4. 

Now, looking ahead, personally I believe we will be breaking in a new QB next year. We will still have questions on the offensive line. We will probably lose some good defensive talent.  We may still have RB issues.  And most likely will be breaking in a new OC. So, realistically, will next season be better? I don’t know. Thats a lot to overcome but the schedule flips to having uga and uat at home. Not being negative, being reasonable it looks like a 7-5 type year or 8-5 at best.  And if you think thats overly pessimistic them check out the three game road trip with Florida, LSU and Arky plus Oregon to start the year.

So then we head to 2020 and I think because of the buyout Gus hangs around again if thats how this goes. Is there light at the end of this tunnel or just more darkness? 

And for those who want us to circle the wagons and rally behind the troops here, how do you see it differently? I think I’m being pretty optimistic with my assessment. It could actually go worse. Of course it could also go better. My question is what is it the more positive people want everyone to do? I myself and most true Auburn men and women will still support the team, go to games, buy merch, wear our colors etc. We will not abandon Auburn.

I concede that some of the negativity is over the top but people are very frustrated when they look forward to something all year and believe its going to be fun and enjoyable only to see an all too familiar re-run play out. So we can circle those wagons, we can lower the negative index on this great forum, but in the end none of that matters as it is the players and coaches who determine the outcomes.  

What in my assessment above is overly negative or unrealistic? And should we have to wait until at least 2020 to see Gus MAYBE put another contender on the field?

If you are indeed going to jump ship then get off now. Most of us have been here before.  I guess we will circle the wagons in our own different ways and hope our team and coaches do too. 

 

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For $7 million a year it is inconceivable that the fanbase would be so MASOCHISTIC (maybe dumb?) that we would put up with Gus past 2019 if all of what you describe transpires. And it could be worse like you said, maybe starting this weekend!

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23 minutes ago, ChltteTiger said:

For $7 million a year it is inconceivable that the fanbase would be so MASOCHISTIC (maybe dumb?) that we would put up with Gus past 2019 if all of what you describe transpires. And it could be worse like you said, maybe starting this weekend!

It’s not a matter of what fans put up with. It’s a matter of a huge buyout. Settle in for at least a few more years. Unless you have a few million $$$ to contribute to the cause. I’m not happy about it either, but it is what it is. 

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31 minutes ago, ChltteTiger said:

For $7 million a year it is inconceivable that the fanbase would be so MASOCHISTIC (maybe dumb?) that we would put up with Gus past 2019 if all of what you describe transpires. And it could be worse like you said, maybe starting this weekend!

Yeah unless next year is 0-12 he’s around for 2020.

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Everything said here makes sense, yet I still find it hard to believe Auburn will keep a coach around that long  if this thing keeps spiraling down. Empty seats, blowout losses and recruiting hits will force some hard decisions to be made by people of means. How much embarrassment can AU endure? Is a new football building(while much needed) a better investment than getting what you hope to be the right guy in place? It just feels like we are headed for another bottoming out which is unfortunately the norm in the boom and bust cycle of AU football. 

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3 minutes ago, CR said:

Everything said here makes sense, yet I still find it hard to believe Auburn will keep a coach around that long  if this thing keeps spiraling down. Empty seats, blowout losses and recruiting hits will force some hard decisions to be made by people of means. How much embarrassment can AU endure? Is a new football building(while much needed) a better investment than getting what you hope to be the right guy in place? It just feels like we are headed for another bottoming out which is unfortunately the norm in the boom and bust cycle of AU football. 

I don’t disagree, and Auburn has certainly never hesitates to pay off coaches before...however, this is a very significant buyout and on top of that we would have to pay the new coach. Short of an absolute disaster I think he’s here through 2020.

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1 minute ago, OnthePlains said:

I don’t disagree, and Auburn has certainly never hesitates to pay off coaches before...however, this is a very significant buyout and on top of that we would have to pay the new coach. Short of an absolute disaster I think he’s here through 2020.

The buyout is definitely a game changer. I think AU is truly in a no win situation.

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16 minutes ago, War to the Eagle said:

Did I hear something about Gus's buyout kicking in after December, or is there something about December that's a key date in his contract?

Haven’t heard that but you know the old sayin...if it sounds too good to be true it probably is.

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Your assessment is reasonable, but I think you're underestimating our chances next year. We will have an entire OL unit returning, all our RBs, and almost all of our receivers, including a loaded freshman class with Schwartz and Williams. Our DB group has the potential to be elite and our DL is pretty dependable to always reload. That leaves linebackers and QB as question marks- I trust Steele and Co. can develop our young talent there to be at least serviceable and keep our D top 20. We have a plethora of options at QB, and we just need one to step up and be the man. The schedule is hard early, but I would be very disappointed if we're not in the SECCG race for the iron bowl, because the talent is all there. 

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8 minutes ago, Squidward2016 said:

Your assessment is reasonable, but I think you're underestimating our chances next year. We will have an entire OL unit returning, all our RBs, and almost all of our receivers, including a loaded freshman class with Schwartz and Williams. Our DB group has the potential to be elite and our DL is pretty dependable to always reload. That leaves linebackers and QB as question marks- I trust Steele and Co. can develop our young talent there to be at least serviceable and keep our D top 20. We have a plethora of options at QB, and we just need one to step up and be the man. The schedule is hard early, but I would be very disappointed if we're not in the SECCG race for the iron bowl, because the talent is all there. 

I appreciate your optimism but I don’t share it. Returning an entire offensive line that can’t block is no guarantee of success. You’re assuming they’ll get better. Returning receivers obviously means nothing in Gus’s offense as they are consistently under utilized.  Defense should be stout I suppose but I’ve seen no reason to believe Willis is going to come in and set the world on fire at QB and that would probably leave a freshman starter which is usually not good in the SEC... BUT, as I stated, anything can happen in a given year. Looking at that schedule...UF will improve under Mullen, we haven’t won in Baton Rouge since the Washington administration, Arky will probably improve under Morris, Oregon is no gimme, Gus is only 3-3 against Moo St so no guarantees there, and bama and uga aren’t slowin down.  

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Frankly, we need to push for some Grad transfers or Community college  OL/OT to come fill in the gaps.   Its quicker than waiting 2 years to be good again. 

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Might as well add my two cents as Auburn is not going to buy out Gus' contract for the simple fact that we can't keep buying out contracts every few years.  It is not financially viable.  And this also seems like a thread I would typically try to see the silver lining.  :laugh:

I think last year we really took some position groups for granted and just assumed every year they would be the same.  The one position group in particular I am thinking of is the offensive line.  We had four multi-year starters graduate.  That is a lot of starters to replace at once.  It would have been an easier transition if it were two or three.  A good example of that would be our safeties.  We lost three, but we returned two that could start.  It helped ease the transition.  The OL also had a brand new coach that only exacerbated the issue.  I think next year they should improve, if nothing else due to the experience they have picked up this year and the painful memories that have come with them.

I am fairly confident our our quarterback situation next year.  I do not think Stidham should leave to protect his draft stock just like I said with Jeff Holland, but I still think he will leave.  We have a great shot of landing Bryant next year, and even if that does not work out, I am really high on Bo Nix.  I think he can come in and start right away due to his skill being developed and his maturity for his age.  He could easily do what other true freshmen quarterbacks have done this year and last year.  Do not be surprised of one or two quarterbacks transfer.  This is strictly due to wanting to start.

Whitlow can really be a force for us, and honestly I am really hoping to see more of Joiner.  I think they can be a good 1-2 punch if Kam Martin is not the guy.  And don't forget about Shivers.

Our receiving corps will be just fine.  Our true freshmen are not playing like true freshmen.  They only WR I can think that we lose is Ryan Davis who will be sorely missed, but I really have been impressed with our WR recruiting over the past few years to where we have good depth.

On defense I think our secondary will be our strong suit next year.  What I really find funny is every year the position group that we say will be our weak link is always our best.  2016 it was our linebackers.  2017 it was our defensive line.  2018 it was our secondary.  I think for 2019 the biggest question mark is our linebacking corps.  But I do not have doubt T-Will will have our next group ready, just like I trust Garner.

I can't forget about special teams.  Anders Carlson was unfortunate that his brother came right before him to where everyone just assumed Anders would come in and play like his brother immediately.  That is a lot of pressure.  Give it another year to let the young man find his groove.  Siposs will be back next year as well and that guy has really proven to be an asset for us.  I would be completely fine with the idea that we only recruit former rubgy players from Australia from now on.

In all we have a lot of young players, and a lot of starters returning, not to mention a great 2019 class coming on assuming everyone stays put.  Just my two cents however.  But no matter what happens with this year, it is always great to be an Auburn Tiger and I can't wait for basketball!

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36 minutes ago, auskip07 said:

Frankly, we need to push for some Grad transfers or Community college  OL/OT to come fill in the gaps.   Its quicker than waiting 2 years to be good again. 

Exactly. Said it another thread. We need grad transfers at center and right guard. The other spots may be ok if we can improve those two positions.

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10 hours ago, CR said:

It just feels like we are headed for another bottoming out which is unfortunately the norm in the boom and bust cycle of AU football.

This the magic that is AU football. When expectations are high like this year, we disappoint. When it feels like we are stepping into the abyss, we pull a rabbit out of the hat, and contend for a title. It’s been that way for at least 30 years. 

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12 hours ago, OnthePlains said:

Ok, so let’s move on from firing Gus because we know that isn’t happening right now. For the purposes of this thread lets assume he is safe through next season and I believe he is. 

Despite my own personal misgivings about Gus and the debacle we saw last Saturday, I do believe we can still beat UT, OM and A&M. If we do that and beat Liberty then at least we have a typical Gus season and no wheels come off.  How are we going to do that? I have no idea. But if we can find something that works well enough and the D returns to form it could happen. Assuming a bowl loss, based on Gus’s track record then 8-5 it is. If we win the bowl then ok 9-4. 

Now, looking ahead, personally I believe we will be breaking in a new QB next year. We will still have questions on the offensive line. We will probably lose some good defensive talent.  We may still have RB issues.  And most likely will be breaking in a new OC. So, realistically, will next season be better? I don’t know. Thats a lot to overcome but the schedule flips to having uga and uat at home. Not being negative, being reasonable it looks like a 7-5 type year or 8-5 at best.  And if you think thats overly pessimistic them check out the three game road trip with Florida, LSU and Arky plus Oregon to start the year.

So then we head to 2020 and I think because of the buyout Gus hangs around again if thats how this goes. Is there light at the end of this tunnel or just more darkness? 

And for those who want us to circle the wagons and rally behind the troops here, how do you see it differently? I think I’m being pretty optimistic with my assessment. It could actually go worse. Of course it could also go better. My question is what is it the more positive people want everyone to do? I myself and most true Auburn men and women will still support the team, go to games, buy merch, wear our colors etc. We will not abandon Auburn.

I concede that some of the negativity is over the top but people are very frustrated when they look forward to something all year and believe its going to be fun and enjoyable only to see an all too familiar re-run play out. So we can circle those wagons, we can lower the negative index on this great forum, but in the end none of that matters as it is the players and coaches who determine the outcomes.  

What in my assessment above is overly negative or unrealistic? And should we have to wait until at least 2020 to see Gus MAYBE put another contender on the field?

If you are indeed going to jump ship then get off now. Most of us have been here before.  I guess we will circle the wagons in our own different ways and hope our team and coaches do too. 

 

Not jumping ship but I also don't know that we beat any of the three teams you mentioned in the 2nd paragraph.  A&M  will score on us. If we can't score more than 14-20 points a game against even weaker SEC programs I'm not convinced we best any of them. My opinion. 

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2 minutes ago, Deemer 47 said:

Not jumping ship but I also don't know that we beat any of the three teams you mentioned in the 2nd paragraph.  A&M  will score on us. If we can't score more than 14-20 points a game against even weaker SEC programs I'm not convinced we best any of them. My opinion. 

To borrow a phrase from Gus...No doubt...Yeah I’m not saying it’s likely we win those but I’m not willing to concede them yet. If we could just find someone that works good enough to help our defense out we’d have a shot,

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1 hour ago, abw0004 said:

 I am really high on Bo Nix.  I think he can come in and start right away due to his skill being developed and his maturity for his age.  He could easily do what other true freshmen quarterbacks have done this year and last year.  

Bo won’t be ready next year, Gatewood or bust is the way I see it

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10 hours ago, OnthePlains said:

I appreciate your optimism but I don’t share it. Returning an entire offensive line that can’t block is no guarantee of success. You’re assuming they’ll get better. Returning receivers obviously means nothing in Gus’s offense as they are consistently under utilized.  Defense should be stout I suppose but I’ve seen no reason to believe Willis is going to come in and set the world on fire at QB and that would probably leave a freshman starter which is usually not good in the SEC... BUT, as I stated, anything can happen in a given year. Looking at that schedule...UF will improve under Mullen, we haven’t won in Baton Rouge since the Washington administration, Arky will probably improve under Morris, Oregon is no gimme, Gus is only 3-3 against Moo St so no guarantees there, and bama and uga aren’t slowin down.  

aTm will improve by leaps & bounds next season - JimBo's bringing in game-changers - uga/uat will be stronger, as weird as it sounds both those teams are fairly young this year.

It just goes to show if your HC & program aren't working everyday to improve and get better, then your getting left miles behind the rest of the pack.  It's takes some monumental work to climb up out of the valley when your conference brethren are working just as hard to get to and stay on the mountain top.

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2 hours ago, auskip07 said:

Frankly, we need to push for some Grad transfers or Community college  OL/OT to come fill in the gaps.   Its quicker than waiting 2 years to be good again. 

Hell yeah, get some band aids & duck tape.  Patch this thang together!

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6 minutes ago, keesler said:

aTm will improve by leaps & bounds next season - JimBo's bringing in game-changers - uga/uat will be stronger, as weird as it sounds both those teams are fairly young this year.

It just goes to show if your HC & program aren't working everyday to improve and get better, then your getting left miles behind the rest of the pack.  It's takes some monumental work to climb up out of the valley when your conference brethren are working just as hard to get to and stay on the mountain top.

Well stated Keesler. Im outta likes so “like”

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11 minutes ago, keesler said:

aTm will improve by leaps & bounds next season - JimBo's bringing in game-changers - uga/uat will be stronger, as weird as it sounds both those teams are fairly young this year.

It just goes to show if your HC & program aren't working everyday to improve and get better, then your getting left miles behind the rest of the pack.  It's takes some monumental work to climb up out of the valley when your conference brethren are working just as hard to get to and stay on the mountain top.

Good post.   Some People on this board think other teams aren’t trying to get better.    Believe me when I say that other teams look at Auburn as a winnable game.  

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3 minutes ago, aubaseball said:

Good post.   Some People on this board think other teams aren’t trying to get better.    Believe me when I say that other teams look at Auburn as a winnable game.  

That makes me 😞 

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13 hours ago, OnthePlains said:

Ok, so let’s move on from firing Gus because we know that isn’t happening right now. For the purposes of this thread lets assume he is safe through next season and I believe he is. 

Despite my own personal misgivings about Gus and the debacle we saw last Saturday, I do believe we can still beat UT, OM and A&M. If we do that and beat Liberty then at least we have a typical Gus season and no wheels come off.  How are we going to do that? I have no idea. But if we can find something that works well enough and the D returns to form it could happen. Assuming a bowl loss, based on Gus’s track record then 8-5 it is. If we win the bowl then ok 9-4. 

Now, looking ahead, personally I believe we will be breaking in a new QB next year. We will still have questions on the offensive line. We will probably lose some good defensive talent.  We may still have RB issues.  And most likely will be breaking in a new OC. So, realistically, will next season be better? I don’t know. Thats a lot to overcome but the schedule flips to having uga and uat at home. Not being negative, being reasonable it looks like a 7-5 type year or 8-5 at best.  And if you think thats overly pessimistic them check out the three game road trip with Florida, LSU and Arky plus Oregon to start the year.

So then we head to 2020 and I think because of the buyout Gus hangs around again if thats how this goes. Is there light at the end of this tunnel or just more darkness? 

And for those who want us to circle the wagons and rally behind the troops here, how do you see it differently? I think I’m being pretty optimistic with my assessment. It could actually go worse. Of course it could also go better. My question is what is it the more positive people want everyone to do? I myself and most true Auburn men and women will still support the team, go to games, buy merch, wear our colors etc. We will not abandon Auburn.

I concede that some of the negativity is over the top but people are very frustrated when they look forward to something all year and believe its going to be fun and enjoyable only to see an all too familiar re-run play out. So we can circle those wagons, we can lower the negative index on this great forum, but in the end none of that matters as it is the players and coaches who determine the outcomes.  

What in my assessment above is overly negative or unrealistic? And should we have to wait until at least 2020 to see Gus MAYBE put another contender on the field?

If you are indeed going to jump ship then get off now. Most of us have been here before.  I guess we will circle the wagons in our own different ways and hope our team and coaches do too. 

 

Too many assumptions in this post to process. Most think Stidham will leave after this year, but we don’t know whether he will or won’t leave. It’s hard to project out several years because Stidham staying vs leaving changes a lot. If he stays, Bo Nix will be a year seasoned, which will change the quarterback battle for replacing Stidham. If Stidham leaves, Nix will be drastically behind the other guys, so the battle will come down to those other 3. In the first scenario, we would have a new QB in 2020. In the second, we would have a QB that’s one year seasoned as a starter.

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1 minute ago, AUFriction said:

Too many assumptions in this post to process. Most think Stidham will leave after this year, but we don’t know whether he will or won’t leave. It’s hard to project out several years because Stidham staying vs leaving changes a lot. If he stays, Bo Nix will be a year seasoned, which will change the quarterback battle for replacing Stidham. If Stidham leaves, Nix will be drastically behind the other guys, so the battle will come down to those other 3. In the first scenario, we would have a new QB in 2020. In the second, we would have a QB that’s one year seasoned as a starter.

Again for the 99th time...its a mesage board...you make assumptions, you speculate, you question, you debate...etc. Assumptions and speculation is exactly what I was going for.  

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