Is '8-5' Gus Malzahn due for a big year?

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

5 minutes ago, Auburnfan91 said:

2013 vs MSU - W 24-20
2014 vs MSU - L 38-23
2015 vs MSU - L 17-9
2016 vs MSU - W 38-14
2017 vs MSU - W 49-10
2018 vs MSU - L 23-9

 

6 minutes ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Ah, you're correct, it's 3-3... I was counting 2014 for AU before I realized what game that was

 

[Zeek 16,617]

29 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

Honestly, I think everything kind of hinges on A&M. If we lose to Oregon, we have 2 games to fix whatever went wrong. But TAMU starts a difficult month of road games. If we fail to get healthy and fix whatever weaknesses are discovered in week 1 leading up to A&M, I could see us going 2-4 between Kent State and UGA, which would likely leave us at 5-7 on the year. I think Gus will know the gravity of that game, especially if we lose to Oregon in week 1. 

I'd agree that Tulane, Kent State Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Samford should be wins regardless. From a momentum standpoint, I'd worry about MSU and UF if we lose to A&M. If we get past A&M, I think we will win both. That would put us at 8-1 or 9-0 (depending on the Oregon game) going into LSU. If we are doing that well by the LSU game, I like our chances against LSU. IF that happens, we'd go into Amen Corner with no more than 1 loss, and we'd have a chance in one or both of those games. So 10-12 wins is absolutely doable. But (I think) a lot of it rides on that A&M game.

Agreed with all the above.

I just want to add that, regardless of what else happens, if he loses to Moo State again he shouldn't be allowed back in Auburn

[AUFriction 1,179]

2 minutes ago, Zeek said:

Agreed with all the above.

I just want to add that, regardless of what else happens, if he loses to A MEDIOCRE Moo State TEAM again he shouldn't be allowed back in Auburn

Fixed it.

If Moo State ends up where they are expected to end up, I'd agree with you. The caveat is what happens if they end up somehow being really good. I don't see that happening. But, if it does, it changes things.

[auburn4ever 1,266]

As of last year, Auburn's not getting anything back from that 7 million a year investment when they gave Malzahn that huge buyout. If Auburn goes 8-5 or 7-6 again, some body batter have a back bone to show Gus out the door. So far, Gus has had (3) 8-5 records and a 7-6 record during his first 6 years as head coach. Auburn deserves a winning head coach who's also a great recruiter.

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

Larry vs Sheridan on Finebaum is something else 

[steeleagle 2,945]

1 hour ago, aujeff11 said:

Gus needs to win 9+ or less than 8. If he wins less than 8, at least we will know. 

8 is going to be a tough call, but idealistically we shouldn’t reward 8 win seasons. 9 either, but the SOS/ TF QB compromise can make 9 more reasonable.

Yep, 9 gets him some breathing room for next year...

8 gets him on the hot seat bubble, unless he beats Bama. I don't think beating JUST GA helps him.

7 or less gets him on the Gus bus out of Auburn....

But to be honest...i have ZERO clue as to what record he will bring in with his prior records he has.

With this schedule and playing a TRUE FR how does any of us know. 

[gr82b4au 5,568]

I still think it is an 8-4 type season, give or take a game or 2. This schedule is brutal. If we had Clemson's schedule with this team we would probably win 11 games. 

Oregon and TAM are the key. I wish we had a fluff game first. 

[DAG 33,955]

1 minute ago, gr82b4au said:

I still think it is an 8-4 type season, give or take a game or 2. This schedule is brutal. If we had Clemson's schedule with this team we would probably win 11 games. 

Oregon and TAM are the key. I wish we had a fluff game first. 

Well Clemson is winning National Championships. People bring up Clemson's schedule, yet they are winning the most important games as well.

[gr82b4au 5,568]

3 minutes ago, steeleagle said:

8 gets him on the hot seat bubble, unless he beats Bama. I don't think beating JUST GA helps him.

I actually think that if he wins 8 reg season games and one of them is LSU or UGA, he is completely safe. But who knows...

Actually Bo knows. 

[gr82b4au 5,568]

1 minute ago, DAG said:

Well Clemson is winning National Championships. People bring up Clemson's schedule, yet they are winning the most important games as well.

To get to the game you have to get through the schedule. 

[DAG 33,955]

Just now, gr82b4au said:

To get to the game you have to get through the schedule. 

Yes, but I don't think we would get through the whole schedule and even if we did, we wouldn't have the same success. Actually, this is not even up for discussion, this is straight facts. Clemson has owned us and has been able to beat Bama at the biggest stage. Just having a Clemson Schedule is not enough. If you do have a schedule like that, you need to be winning MULTIPLE championships. This is why they are respected regardless. 

[DAG 33,955]

And I also want to say; I honestly believe bringing Clemson in the discussion takes away accountability. Yes, we have a very tough schedule, so with that being said, you need to win the games you are supposed to win. If Gus did that at the bare minimum, he would not get criticized as much.

[AUFAN78 3,890]

3 hours ago, fasttimes said:

it likely all hinges on qb play.

As I do every year, I'll say it all hinges on line play. Both sides.

[doverstutts 1,643]

i am not convinced that the OL has the talent to go the extra mile and protect a true freshman QB who is going to make a pile of mistakes....the first time he messes up, our playcalling will go into the freezer and it will be no different than last year, and its doubtful that they can open up holes well enough when the offense reverts back to being 80% run....i just cannot see anything over 7 wins and by game 4, it will be "wash,rinse, repeat" with our offense....i have 0 confidence that our illustrious HC can remake himself

[Auburnfan91 1,407]

13 minutes ago, doverstutts said:

i am not convinced that the OL has the talent to go the extra mile and protect a true freshman QB who is going to make a pile of mistakes....the first time he messes up, our playcalling will go into the freezer and it will be no different than last year, and its doubtful that they can open up holes well enough when the offense reverts back to being 80% run....i just cannot see anything over 7 wins and by game 4, it will be "wash,rinse, repeat" with our offense....i have 0 confidence that our illustrious HC can remake himself

I'm willing to give Gus one last chance to prove he's changed but unfortunately I kind of agree with you. He wouldn't trust a returning JR QB(who's now impressing in the NFL pre-season) last year to call audibles. I have no illusions that a true FR QB(no matter how talented) will suddenly make Gus change his philosophy on how he runs the offense and calls plays.

[CR 2,427]

I think 7-5 but some teams on the schedule may not be as strong as predicted either. 6-6 or 9-3 could happen as well. 1 injury at OT could wreck the season.

[Gowebb11 9,309]

First, our schedule really needs to change. We play 6 of the top 12 teams in the country. In contrast, Bama, UGA, and LSU play 2 each. Most other teams play 1 or 2 of the top 12. Or none. That’s a huge disparity. Nothing we can do about it this year, but I give any AU coach some slack for that. That said, we have a roster full of talent, an excellent defensive coaching staff, and the Dawgs and Tide at home. Gus needs 9 wins to keep his job in my opinion, and that means he cannot afford an ‘MSU’ ‘UT’ type of loss like last year. 

[jAUSon 2,836]

1 hour ago, DAG said:

-you need to win the games you are supposed to win. If Gus did that.......

Most of us are willing to cede an ass-whooping along the way, be it a good dog fight where we came up short. But our guy doesn't always win the ones he's suppose too, and more often than not- his game plan and gametime decisions are directly to blame for the shortcomings. He owns some losses for sure.

It's a contest of momentum. There's room for another team to be a favorite beside uat and (saddly) thuga. Elbowing out a space as that dominant program is the real goal, and we're paying enough to require it. If we can't get that status with our money, we need to search for an answer, or pay less. 

I love this roster, and I believe in it. I think viewing the season at large (as a win-loss record) is not that important reguarding the continuance of CGM.. I believe this board and all those above us will have all our answers before the season is half-way over.

Got to win the ones you're suppose too. As a threshold- that ship has sailed imo.

[abw0004 10,108]

4 hours ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Since Gus has taken the reigns, he is the only coach other than Nick Saban to win an SEC Western Division title and he's done it twice. 

He is also the SEC coach with the most wins over Saban, current or former.  Hugh Freeze is tied with Gus but that’s it.  

[1auburn1 1,110]

If Gus doesn’t win 9 games this year he never will.   The schedule won’t be getting easier any time soon, the team is loaded with experience except QB but starting elite freshmen QBs isn’t that unusual anymore, and I’m pessimistic about next year due to our woeful roster mismanagement.   That said, I predict 9 and 10 is certainly attainable.  

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

8 wins sounds about right and Gus would be retained if he hits the mark.

[AUsince72 11,084]

1 hour ago, doverstutts said:

i am not convinced that the OL has the talent to go the extra mile and protect a true freshman QB who is going to make a pile of mistakes....the first time he messes up, our playcalling will go into the freezer and it will be no different than last year, and its doubtful that they can open up holes well enough when the offense reverts back to being 80% run....i just cannot see anything over 7 wins and by game 4, it will be "wash,rinse, repeat" with our offense....i have 0 confidence that our illustrious HC can remake himself

I try never to be too rigid in my judgement of those who are here to entertain me.....but....

I don't disagree with your post.  I've said on this very forum, for each of the last 3 pre-seasons, that I was excited and willing to give Gus another chance.  However, this year it's strictly game by game.  By mid-season (as always with Gus) I'll hopefully be able to start producing Crow Recipes.

[augolf1716 21,096]

13 minutes ago, dyehardfanAU said:

8 wins sounds about right and Gus would be retained if he hits the mark.

All depends on how bad the four loses are. If we're close maybe but if they are blow outs he's gone

[steeleagle 2,945]

1 hour ago, doverstutts said:

i am not convinced that the OL has the talent to go the extra mile and protect a true freshman QB who is going to make a pile of mistakes....the first time he messes up, our playcalling will go into the freezer and it will be no different than last year, and its doubtful that they can open up holes well enough when the offense reverts back to being 80% run....i just cannot see anything over 7 wins and by game 4, it will be "wash,rinse, repeat" with our offense....i have 0 confidence that our illustrious HC can remake himself

I kinda agree with that last statement, but let me expand on...

I like Gus, good man, honest...and seems to keep his players for the most part on the straight and narrow...

But the one thing that I worry about...Is that Gus going back to his 'roots' w/ playcalling sounds good but if repeats his offensive thought process then this offense is in trouble. Hopefully w/ his new OC, together they can call a good game plan for success.

.....But if Gus' play calling resembles what he did AFTER the 2013-2014 season where teams over the course of his tenure studied his tendencies and w/ the new rules to help the defenses defend the HUNH, we will not be able to generate enough offensive drives and be successful in the redzone to win those games he needs to, to get him to that 9+ SEC record plateau. 

yes, he has a QB who can throw it and run it enough...although w/ a lack of college game day experience but his playcalling has to be top level offensive scheming w/ pass plays that are more than bombs and bubble screens.... 

[AUsince72 11,084]

10 minutes ago, augolf1716 said:

All depends on how bad the four loses are. If we're close maybe but if they are blow outs he's gone

With this schedule, as long as the team always looks well prepared, confident & competitive, then 4 losses are understandable.  However, he's gotta beat at least one of the big 2 (IMO preferably thUga) for me to "want?" him back.  Not that what I want matters 😁.