Serious thoughts on the 2023 season

[AuCivilEng1 10,995]

15 hours ago, SumterAubie said:

Just get over 6.5 and I'm good!

You smashed that over, huh?

[tbone4jc 2,241]

6. That is what I’ve set myself up for. If we win more, that would be AUsome but I refuse to set expectations too high only to feel negative about this team. War Eagle and IGTBAAT 

[meh130 1,043]

Justin Ferguson at The Auburn Observer did a story based on ESPN's recently released SP+ metric, which is used to predict head to head matchups. As the SP+ metrics require an ESPN+ subscription, and this article is behind the paywall at the Observer, I will limit what I say.

Last year, SP+ pegged Auburn to go 5-7. It tends to be an accurate metric.

That said, the SP+ prediction had the highest probability for Auburn to land at 7-5, with the second most likely being 6-6, and the third most likely being 8-4. Overall, it had Auburn at about a 60% chance of a winning season (7-4 or better), and only about a 16% chance of a losing season (5-7 or worse).

So SP+ is similar to what I predict, but it has the 6-6 and 8-4 flip-flopped with a slightly higher chance of going 6-6 rather than 8-4. But that is understandable as my thoughts about Auburn hitting 8-4 is solely based on intangibles like the desire for Freeze to beat his old school Ole Miss, and the expectation that a coaching change usually results in a first year overachievement.

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 hour ago, meh130 said:

Justin Ferguson at The Auburn Observer did a story based on ESPN's recently released SP+ metric, which is used to predict head to head matchups. As the SP+ metrics require an ESPN+ subscription, and this article is behind the paywall at the Observer, I will limit what I say.

Last year, SP+ pegged Auburn to go 5-7. It tends to be an accurate metric.

That said, the SP+ prediction had the highest probability for Auburn to land at 7-5, with the second most likely being 6-6, and the third most likely being 8-4. Overall, it had Auburn at about a 60% chance of a winning season (7-4 or better), and only about a 16% chance of a losing season (5-7 or worse).

So SP+ is similar to what I predict, but it has the 6-6 and 8-4 flip-flopped with a slightly higher chance of going 6-6 rather than 8-4. But that is understandable as my thoughts about Auburn hitting 8-4 is solely based on intangibles like the desire for Freeze to beat his old school Ole Miss, and the expectation that a coaching change usually results in a first year overachievement.

I think that sounds about right.

Believe people are falling into a historical perspective trap wrt our rivals mixed with how much better did we actually get vs said rivals.

On the first...Miss Schools and Arkansas are all better than their histories. Arkansas might have the best QB in the SEC. But is our talent level better than theirs?

Leading into the second point....we added a lot of good G5 players. Will any of them turn into upper level SEC players to help us beat ther aforementioned 3 teams and compete with the top teams? 

I think we've gone from really bad to at worst on their same level. Can we beat all 3? 2 at home should help.

LSU/Bama/UGA are on another few levels above us at the moment. It's going to take more than 1 portal class to get us on par with them.

Aggies are probably a rung ahead of us, but their staff (outside Price) is a disaster and Jimbo is in a nose dive. If we look competent in games 1-3 I don't think a win in college station is out of the question. 

 

Final piece, I think we have a pretty solid coaching staff. Can that be enough to get us to 8 or 9 wins? Staff+Talent I'd say we'd rank above everyone on our schedule except the big 3.

[meh130 1,043]

45 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

I think that sounds about right.

Believe people are falling into a historical perspective trap wrt our rivals mixed with how much better did we actually get vs said rivals.

On the first...Miss Schools and Arkansas are all better than their histories. Arkansas might have the best QB in the SEC. But is our talent level better than theirs?

Leading into the second point....we added a lot of good G5 players. Will any of them turn into upper level SEC players to help us beat ther aforementioned 3 teams and compete with the top teams? 

I think we've gone from really bad to at worst on their same level. Can we beat all 3? 2 at home should help.

LSU/Bama/UGA are on another few levels above us at the moment. It's going to take more than 1 portal class to get us on par with them.

Aggies are probably a rung ahead of us, but their staff (outside Price) is a disaster and Jimbo is in a nose dive. If we look competent in games 1-3 I don't think a win in college station is out of the question. 

 

Final piece, I think we have a pretty solid coaching staff. Can that be enough to get us to 8 or 9 wins? Staff+Talent I'd say we'd rank above everyone on our schedule except the big 3.

Yep. I will be happy with 7-5, and very happy with 8-4. If that 8-4 includes a win over Bama I will be ecstatic. Of course that last point will be challenging. In 2021, on pass defense we were exceptional in that game. When you have two NFL caliber edge rushers and you put both of them in the game at the same time, you really can disrupt a high quality quarterback. It reminded me of the times both Dee Ford and Carl Lawson were on the field at the same time in 2013. But we ran Hall and Leota at the same time a lot in 2021.

[SumterAubie 3,031]

6 hours ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

You smashed that over, huh?

With a C note

[AUwent 3,747]

4 hours ago, meh130 said:

Justin Ferguson at The Auburn Observer did a story based on ESPN's recently released SP+ metric, which is used to predict head to head matchups. As the SP+ metrics require an ESPN+ subscription, and this article is behind the paywall at the Observer, I will limit what I say.

Last year, SP+ pegged Auburn to go 5-7. It tends to be an accurate metric.

That said, the SP+ prediction had the highest probability for Auburn to land at 7-5, with the second most likely being 6-6, and the third most likely being 8-4. Overall, it had Auburn at about a 60% chance of a winning season (7-4 or better), and only about a 16% chance of a losing season (5-7 or worse).

So SP+ is similar to what I predict, but it has the 6-6 and 8-4 flip-flopped with a slightly higher chance of going 6-6 rather than 8-4. But that is understandable as my thoughts about Auburn hitting 8-4 is solely based on intangibles like the desire for Freeze to beat his old school Ole Miss, and the expectation that a coaching change usually results in a first year overachievement.

I'll take SP+'s prediction.

[AU-24 3,063]

On 5/31/2023 at 9:54 AM, AURex said:

If Auburn goes 7-5 -- well that's a winning season, right? If Auburn wins more than 7 in CHF first season, with pretty much half the team replaced by portals (mostly 3 stars), I'd say that's better than I expect -- and I would be really happy about that!

Allot of four stars. Freeze signed more portal four stars than any other coach in the country.

[AuCivilEng1 10,995]

11 hours ago, SumterAubie said:

With a C note

I'm seriously thinking about putting a lot of money on the over. Trying to convince the boss (wife) its easy money.

[Viper 3,130]

7-5.

Here’s an interesting stat I just put together… AU’s average winning % the last four seasons that end with a “3” is 84% or an average of 10.5 wins and 2 losses.

[Win4AU 4,052]

83 - shoulda been a natty

93 - shoulda been a natty

03 - was supposed to be a natty

13 - played for the natty

23 - 

[Viper 3,130]

On 5/30/2023 at 1:04 PM, AuCivilEng1 said:

And that Bama game is going to be closer to 50/50 than a lot think. If we get both of them at night, its on like donkey kong.

The IB has been on at night once since 2007, which was 2014, only because CBS chose #4 MSU vs. #19 Ole Miss at 2:30PM.

[Viper 3,130]

1 hour ago, Win4AU said:

83 - shoulda been a natty

93 - shoulda been a natty

03 - was supposed to be a natty

13 - played for the natty

23 - 

Two of those four seasons were the HC's 1st season.

[Mims44 1,867]

On 5/31/2023 at 4:03 PM, tbone4jc said:

6. That is what I’ve set myself up for. If we win more, that would be AUsome but I refuse to set expectations too high only to feel negative about this team. War Eagle and IGTBAAT 

On 5/31/2023 at 7:07 PM, meh130 said:

Yep. I will be happy with 7-5, and very happy with 8-4. If that 8-4 includes a win over Bama I will be ecstatic. Of course that last point will be challenging. In 2021, on pass defense we were exceptional in that game. When you have two NFL caliber edge rushers and you put both of them in the game at the same time, you really can disrupt a high quality quarterback. It reminded me of the times both Dee Ford and Carl Lawson were on the field at the same time in 2013. But we ran Hall and Leota at the same time a lot in 2021.

I would have agreed with you two. buuuuttt...

8 hours ago, Win4AU said:

83 - shoulda been a natty

93 - shoulda been a natty

03 - was supposed to be a natty

13 - played for the natty

23 - 

Now I expect 15 wins and a National Championship.

Auburn University - The U of 3!

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

Preview of how veteran, national-level sports writers with AP votes are aching to cut Freeze off at the knees. Stewart Mandel & his flunky just ranked Thorne as a bottom tier QB. This after Thorne in TWO YEARS at Mich St "set single-season records for total yards, total touchdowns and passing touchdowns (and) ranks fifth in career total touchdowns, fifth in career total yards, fourth in career passing touchdowns and third in single-season passing yards". Take away for this season? AU losses & close wins will be brutalized by media and Freeze's upset wins will be ignored. The Dye era all over again, I'll take it.

[W.E.D 11,070]

57 minutes ago, aucanucktiger said:

Preview of how veteran, national-level sports writers with AP votes are aching to cut Freeze off at the knees. Stewart Mandel & his flunky just ranked Thorne as a bottom tier QB. This after Thorne in TWO YEARS at Mich St "set single-season records for total yards, total touchdowns and passing touchdowns (and) ranks fifth in career total touchdowns, fifth in career total yards, fourth in career passing touchdowns and third in single-season passing yards". Take away for this season? AU losses & close wins will be brutalized by media and Freeze's upset wins will be ignored. The Dye era all over again, I'll take it.

Can you post the tiers or a link to the article?

Also, can we stop being the victim for once in our lives?

[W.E.D 11,070]

Thorne will be pretty interesting to see what is the real version of himself.

'21 he had the best running game in the nation & elite WRs.  Lot of easy deep balls of play action/flea flickers.

'22 he lost the running game, but still had two elite WRs.  Claimed to be hurt most of the year, all of his stats were way down....especially YPA that went pretty meh.

 

Our history with QBs is pretty awful.  I'm nearly positive he'll be better than anything we've since Stidham's single good season.  Seems like our perception will skew a little bit vs what is actually a good QB.  Thorne is probably a middle of the pack QB.  I feel like he's a high floor/low ceiling guy.  Even his bad year, he wasn't awful (like we've had).  His best year was good, but wasn't amazing.  Sure he'd set records & I'd be ecstatic if he repeated his '21 season, but that's still probably only 2nd tier.

[W.E.D 11,070]

https://theathletic.com/4582932/2023/06/05/college-football-quarterback-tiers-rankings-caleb-williams/

Here's the article.  It's not nearly as bad as @aucanucktiger portrays.  There are A LOT of quality QBs in Tier 5.  It only ranks 31 QBs

Quote

This is by no means a complete list of every qualified FBS quarterback, but we hit the majority of Power 5 returnees as well as the top Group of 5 players.

Tier 1

Caleb Williams, USC

Tier 2

Drake Maye, North Carolina
Michael Penix Jr., Washington

Tier 3

Jayden Daniels, LSU
Frank Harris, UTSA
KJ Jefferson, Arkansas
Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Bo Nix, Oregon
Michael Pratt, Tulane
Devin Leary, Kentucky

Tier 4

Sam Hartman, Notre Dame
Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma
Tanner Mordecai, Wisconsin
Cam Rising, Utah
Jalon Daniels, Kansas
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland
Jordan Travis, Florida State

Tier 5

Quinn Ewers, Texas
Will Howard, Kansas State
Joe Milton, Tennessee
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Jayden de Laura, Arizona
Riley Leonard, Duke
Will Rogers, Mississippi State
Kedon Slovis, BYU
Payton Thorne, Auburn
DJ Uiagalelei, Oregon State
Tyler Van Dyke, Miami
Cam Ward, Washington State

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

1 hour ago, W.E.D said:

Can you post the tiers or a link to the article?

Also, can we stop being the victim for once in our lives?

Believe it or not, sports media divide the world into heroes and villains. The villains are perpetual (Notre Dame, post-camgate Auburn, soccer, etc) and SI and Mandel are out of state poster children for anti-Auburn (& anti-Cane) blather. 

Edited June 6, 2023 by aucanucktiger

[W.E.D 11,070]

24 minutes ago, aucanucktiger said:

Believe it or not, sports media divide the world into heroes and villains. The villains are perpetual (Notre Dame, post-camgate Auburn, soccer, etc) and SI and Mandel are out of state poster children for anti-Auburn (& anti-Cane) blather. 

There is nothing inaccurate about that article above.

You're just playing victim 

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

29 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

There is nothing inaccurate about that article above.

You're just playing victim 

Oh yeah? Yeah. Oh yeah? Yeah.

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 minute ago, aucanucktiger said:

Oh yeah? Yeah. Oh yeah? Yeah.

Great talk.  Keep feeling sorry for yourself when Thorne was listed at a top 31 QB in CFB....just the back end of the top 31

[80Tiger 899]

3 hours ago, W.E.D said:

Thorne will be pretty interesting to see what is the real version of himself.

'21 he had the best running game in the nation & elite WRs.  Lot of easy deep balls of play action/flea flickers.

'22 he lost the running game, but still had two elite WRs.  Claimed to be hurt most of the year, all of his stats were way down....especially YPA that went pretty meh.

 

Our history with QBs is pretty awful.  I'm nearly positive he'll be better than anything we've since Stidham's single good season.  Seems like our perception will skew a little bit vs what is actually a good QB.  Thorne is probably a middle of the pack QB.  I feel like he's a high floor/low ceiling guy.  Even his bad year, he wasn't awful (like we've had).  His best year was good, but wasn't amazing.  Sure he'd set records & I'd be ecstatic if he repeated his '21 season, but that's still probably only 2nd tier.

Pretty good take. I believe he is a little bit more than low ceiling. He seems to be better with good talent around him. I HOPE we have improved our talent enough and that will help him be a better QB. As another poster said, there are some pretty good QB's in that Tier 5.

[W.E.D 11,070]

19 minutes ago, 80Tiger said:

Pretty good take. I believe he is a little bit more than low ceiling. He seems to be better with good talent around him. I HOPE we have improved our talent enough and that will help him be a better QB. As another poster said, there are some pretty good QB's in that Tier 5.

With elite talent he was 60% 3200yds 27tds 10 INT

I'll take that immediately and be extremely happy.  Can he be that much better? Is tha this ceiling? Maybe a touch more? I'd love to see his comp% jump, but I'm not sure he's a 4k 40+ TD guy....is he?

That's what I meant by low ceiling. How much improvement does he have in him??

[80Tiger 899]

5 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

With elite talent he was 60% 3200yds 27tds 10 INT

I'll take that immediately and be extremely happy.  Can he be that much better? Is tha this ceiling? Maybe a touch more? I'd love to see his comp% jump, but I'm not sure he's a 4k 40+ TD guy....is he?

That's what I meant by low ceiling. How much improvement does he have in him??

I agree he is not a 4K guy, but what we have been subject to the last few years 60% + and those yards and TD would be nice. Compared to other schools that may be low ceiling, but compared to our recent history , I am with you, I will take it.