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Serious thoughts on the 2023 season


meh130

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4 minutes ago, 80Tiger said:

I agree he is not a 4K guy, but what we have been subject to the last few years 60% + and those yards and TD would be nice. Compared to other schools that may be low ceiling, but compared to our recent history , I am with you, I will take it.

Yeah, 100% agree.  I'm excited for him.

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2 hours ago, W.E.D said:

Great talk.  Keep feeling sorry for yourself when Thorne was listed at a top 31 QB in CFB....just the back end of the top 31

You are trying to have a rational discussion with a toddler . Will never work

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5 hours ago, W.E.D said:

https://theathletic.com/4582932/2023/06/05/college-football-quarterback-tiers-rankings-caleb-williams/

Here's the article.  It's not nearly as bad as @aucanucktiger portrays.  There are A LOT of quality QBs in Tier 5.  It only ranks 31 QBs

Tier 1

Caleb Williams, USC

Tier 2

Drake Maye, North Carolina
Michael Penix Jr., Washington

Tier 3

Jayden Daniels, LSU
Frank Harris, UTSA
KJ Jefferson, Arkansas
Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Bo Nix, Oregon
Michael Pratt, Tulane
Devin Leary, Kentucky

Tier 4

Sam Hartman, Notre Dame
Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma
Tanner Mordecai, Wisconsin
Cam Rising, Utah
Jalon Daniels, Kansas
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland
Jordan Travis, Florida State

Tier 5

Quinn Ewers, Texas
Will Howard, Kansas State
Joe Milton, Tennessee
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Jayden de Laura, Arizona
Riley Leonard, Duke
Will Rogers, Mississippi State
Kedon Slovis, BYU
Payton Thorne, Auburn
DJ Uiagalelei, Oregon State
Tyler Van Dyke, Miami
Cam Ward, Washington State

Yeah, clickbait at its finest! Thorne being listed amongst those guys is a good sign.

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27 minutes ago, AUwent said:

Yeah, clickbait at its finest! Thorne being listed amongst those guys is a good sign.

Yeah, there are a lot of really really good QBs in that group. All of the "summary" articles off thr athletic articles are definitely click baity

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29 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

Yeah, there are a lot of really really good QBs in that group. All of the "summary" articles off thr athletic articles are definitely click baity

Anything from Fansided (ours is FlyWarEagle).

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52 minutes ago, AUwent said:

Anything from Fansided (ours is FlyWarEagle).

Si is doing it too.

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Last year uga 5*’d TCU to death and it further reinforced the/my belief about talent being everything. Maybe the occasional upset, but talent always wins in the long run. In every sport. Therefore talent analytics say we’re a 2023 .500ish team. Makes total sense.

NBA playoffs right now. Best of 7 format - better team should always win. The debate about the importance of coaching has resurrected as hot topic.  Ie Shaq has consistently stated coaching is irrelevant, it’s only about the number super stars (btw Barkley  disagrees with him). Enter the Miami Heat, an 8 seed. No chance.  They have no real “superstar” and 5 undrafted role players (highest in nba).  However -  probably the best X’s and O’s coach in the nba and a relentless blue collar culture. In the past 6 weeks they’ve upset the biggest superstar teams (against the Celtics - Vegas gave them less than a 3% chance) and have been shocking everyone.  Have beaten 3 “better” teams in a row - in a best of 7. They’re now 1 and 1 in the finals.

Ive always been a 5* talent wins believer and have somewhat dismissed coaching and scheme in college football. Again - TCU. And therefore on paper, for at least a couple more years, we have no chance against uga, bama. and lsu. None. But for over a month the country has been watching a less talented team in the nba make brilliant adjustments (ie they’ve been using a friggin zone defense - that’s a high school/college scheme) and roster moves - and beat “better teams” series after series. It’s reignited the talent vs coaching debate everywhere. And it’s got me wondering if au and chf has a better chance to do something special  in 2023 than anyone realizes.

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36 minutes ago, auburnatl1 said:

Last year uga 5*’d TCU to death and it further reinforced the/my belief about talent being everything. Maybe the occasional upset, but talent always wins in the long run. In every sport. Therefore talent analytics say we’re a 2023 .500ish team. Makes total sense.

NBA playoffs right now. Best of 7 format - better team should always win. The debate about the importance of coaching has resurrected as hot topic.  Ie Shaq has consistently stated coaching is irrelevant, it’s only about the number super stars (btw Barkley  disagrees with him). Enter the Miami Heat, an 8 seed. No chance.  They have no real “superstar” and 5 undrafted role players (highest in nba).  However -  probably the best X’s and O’s coach in the nba and a relentless blue collar culture. In the past 6 weeks they’ve upset the biggest superstar teams (against the Celtics - Vegas gave them less than a 3% chance) and have been shocking everyone.  Have beaten 3 “better” teams in a row - in a best of 7. They’re now 1 and 1 in the finals.

Ive always been a 5* talent wins believer and have somewhat dismissed coaching and scheme in college football. Again - TCU. And therefore on paper, for at least a couple more years, we have no chance against uga, bama. and lsu. None. But for over a month the country has been watching a less talented team in the nba make brilliant adjustments (ie they’ve been using a friggin zone defense - that’s a high school/college scheme) and roster moves - and beat “better teams” series after series. It’s reignited the talent vs coaching debate everywhere. And it’s got me wondering if au and chf has a better chance to do something special  in 2023 than anyone realizes.

IMO, CFB is all about coaching. You definitely need the talent though. South Carolina running the table and making the playoff is a long shot, for example. Harsin is not winning a title with Georgia's roster. That's not happening. Kirby is a master recruiter and knows who to hire to run his offense and select personnel. It's almost impossible to win a title without a bunch of 5* but incompetent coach/staff aren't winning titles.

As far as TCU/UGA goes. I'm not being a hater, but Georgia is not 58 points better than TCU. Georgia showed up on fire and TCU didn't show up at all. If you simulated that game 100 times, I'd say the scores would range on average from Georgia 30-35 and TCU 17-22. Doesn't change the fact that they absolutely smoked them though.

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21 minutes ago, woodford said:

IMO, CFB is all about coaching. You definitely need the talent though. South Carolina running the table and making the playoff is a long shot, for example. Harsin is not winning a title with Georgia's roster. That's not happening. Kirby is a master recruiter and knows who to hire to run his offense and select personnel. It's almost impossible to win a title without a bunch of 5* but incompetent coach/staff aren't winning titles.

As far as TCU/UGA goes. I'm not being a hater, but Georgia is not 58 points better than TCU. Georgia showed up on fire and TCU didn't show up at all. If you simulated that game 100 times, I'd say the scores would range on average from Georgia 30-35 and TCU 17-22. Doesn't change the fact that they absolutely smoked them though.

This was posted elsewhere and contributed to the 5* narrative. Btw uga barely survived osu with similar talent.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/ncaa-football/news/tcu-georgia-recruiting-breakdown-five-star-players/g0u5r6qvum3ddbtuswhiqskm

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18 minutes ago, auburnatl1 said:

This was posted elsewhere and contributed to the 5* narrative. Btw uga barely survived osu with similar talent.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/ncaa-football/news/tcu-georgia-recruiting-breakdown-five-star-players/g0u5r6qvum3ddbtuswhiqskm

5* matter and help, but it's really accumulating as much as possible top 100 or top 125 players.  Not all 5* are going to hit and we know in our case when we get 1 a year or 1 every other year our bust rate is pretty high.  but if you can get 5-6 top 125 players, maybe 50% of those become solid contributors or elite contributors.

Look at UGA's 2015 class.  2 5* busts, but 4 guys #35-#115.  1 was as first round pick.  1 other drafted, both others contributors.

I don't think anyone is kidding ourselves that we'd get something like UGA's 2020 class and have 4* kids that all became beasts and drafted in the 1st 2-3 rounds.  I don't think our ceiling is that high.

We need 5* difference makers.  Need to develop them, but we can be successful accumulating other talent....not what we've typically gotten recently, which were inflated 4* kids that are ranked between 250-400.

This isn't 1995.  Recruiting "gems" aren't plentiful like they once were.  It's not perfect, but the more top 150 kids you can amass, the more that will hit/develop/etc, the more we'll win.  No more trying to convince yourselves every 3* kid is a hidden gem of sorts and us beating out Army, Troy, and UAB is going to get us to where we want to go

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4 hours ago, auburnatl1 said:

But for over a month the country has been watching a less talented team in the nba make brilliant adjustments (ie they’ve been using a friggin zone defense - that’s a high school/college scheme) and roster moves - and beat “better teams” series after series. It’s reignited the talent vs coaching debate everywhere.

It’s also reinforcing player load management  works i.e. I paid $200 to see my fav player play, then management decides to “rest” said player. How fun.

It also further reinforces the regular season doesn’t matter.

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4 hours ago, woodford said:

It's almost impossible to win a title without a bunch of 5* but incompetent coach/staff aren't winning titles.

Some fans (even AU fans) would say / have said Chizik accomplished the impossible.

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5 minutes ago, Viper said:

It’s also reinforcing player load management  works i.e. I paid $200 to see my fav player play, then management decides to “rest” said player. How fun.

It also further reinforces the regular season doesn’t matter.

Yep.

image.gif.21c2013d70a3cb4ae0c0d8543726bc69.gif

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1 hour ago, Viper said:

Some fans (even AU fans) would say / have said Chizik accomplished the impossible.

Cam accomished the impossible 

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On 5/30/2023 at 5:48 PM, DAG said:

If we are losing or competing against cal we are in trouble. This coaching staff and individual talent should be more than enough to get in there, handle business/get out of there smoothly 

Cal will be excited to have an SEC school visiting, late night kick, travel etc. Auburn can’t just roll their helmet out there and expect a win. Hit ‘em in the mouth early, and get outta there like u said. 

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12 hours ago, PoetTiger said:

Cal will be excited to have an SEC school visiting, late night kick, travel etc. Auburn can’t just roll their helmet out there and expect a win. Hit ‘em in the mouth early, and get outta there like u said. 

I don’t think it’s that simple. They have a very experienced Defensive minded HC that has been under some very impressive HC’s.

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2 minutes ago, Hank2020 said:

I don’t think it’s that simple. They have a very experienced Defensive minded HC that has been under some very impressive HC’s.

Of course not…Wilcox is a very seasoned coach and will have his team ready to play. 

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On 6/8/2023 at 6:22 AM, Viper said:

Some fans (even AU fans) would say / have said Chizik accomplished the impossible.

It was one heck of an accomplishment. Chiz also had the best offensive player and the best defensive player in college football. He also had Gus before the rule change. Not to mention a five-star freshmen tailback.

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I think this new team is going to surprise some folks.  Hugh now has a good throwing QB and a good running QB who occasionally makes great throws to work with. He brought in much better players for the OL.  He brought in some big receivers and that is one of the main things that made his Ole Miss teams so hard to stop.  They threw it up to big receivers that made one on one plays on smaller DB’s.  He inherited some good running backs and brought in 2 more.  He brought in an All American kick returner. Put it all together and I think he has the makings of a very good offense.  He found some stud D linemen, some stud LB’s and we already had some very good DB’s.  Put that all together and he has the makings of a very good defense.  We already had a great punter and a great kicker.  So I don’t get the doom and gloom and expectations of 5-7, 6-6, 7-5, maybe we make the Bham bowl again, etc.  I know it’s a brutal schedule but I think Hugh has the makings of an exciting team that is going to give the likes of UGA, Bammer and LSU fits.  I think 8-4 with a New Years bowl is the floor and the ceiling is much higher.  

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14 hours ago, AU-24 said:

It was one heck of an accomplishment. Chiz also had the best offensive player and the best defensive player in college football. He also had Gus before the rule change. Not to mention a five-star freshmen tailback.

Conflicted on the rule change...as much as Gus's offense depended on it, I'm just not sure it was fair for the offense to be allowed to make substitutions without the defense as well.

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On 6/7/2023 at 11:31 AM, auburnatl1 said:

Last year uga 5*’d TCU to death and it further reinforced the/my belief about talent being everything. Maybe the occasional upset, but talent always wins in the long run. In every sport. Therefore talent analytics say we’re a 2023 .500ish team. Makes total sense.

NBA playoffs right now. Best of 7 format - better team should always win. The debate about the importance of coaching has resurrected as hot topic.  Ie Shaq has consistently stated coaching is irrelevant, it’s only about the number super stars (btw Barkley  disagrees with him). Enter the Miami Heat, an 8 seed. No chance.  They have no real “superstar” and 5 undrafted role players (highest in nba).  However -  probably the best X’s and O’s coach in the nba and a relentless blue collar culture. In the past 6 weeks they’ve upset the biggest superstar teams (against the Celtics - Vegas gave them less than a 3% chance) and have been shocking everyone.  Have beaten 3 “better” teams in a row - in a best of 7. They’re now 1 and 1 in the finals.

Ive always been a 5* talent wins believer and have somewhat dismissed coaching and scheme in college football. Again - TCU. And therefore on paper, for at least a couple more years, we have no chance against uga, bama. and lsu. None. But for over a month the country has been watching a less talented team in the nba make brilliant adjustments (ie they’ve been using a friggin zone defense - that’s a high school/college scheme) and roster moves - and beat “better teams” series after series. It’s reignited the talent vs coaching debate everywhere. And it’s got me wondering if au and chf has a better chance to do something special  in 2023 than anyone realizes.

Well, we know AU has a better chance of doing something special with this staff than they had with the last.  Hope is all we have to go on right now.  Improvements were made and with Bro. Freeze at the helm, incremental improvements will continue to be made.  This rebuild will take time and patience. 

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On 6/11/2023 at 9:30 AM, weagl1 said:

I think 8-4 with a New Years bowl is the floor and the ceiling is much higher.  

BountifulNegligibleDikkops-max-1mb.gif

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30 minutes ago, Viper said:

BountifulNegligibleDikkops-max-1mb.gif

I would still say it's far too optimistic an outlook to say it's our floor but he almost certainly means the six bowls between Citrus and Birmingham.

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