Duke - Pregame thoughts

[81spacetiger 288]

I celebrated the Maui Tournament championship by the team yesterday, so as a fan, it's on to the next opponent.

My thoughts on Duke centers around their starting 3 guards.  Limit them and I think we win going away but easier said than done.  I am looking forward to how Auburn prepares then executes against this blue blood on their home court.  Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel are their best guards so I'm sure we'll be dialed in to limit them as the priority.  If I had to make any observation having watched them play 3 games, they play lots of minutes and play sloppy near the end of games when they are playing a tougher opponent and they are tired.  I suspect those two will see a healthy dose of fresh Auburn bodies to wear them out, so they are not as affective in the last 10 minutes of the game.  

Thoughts to share?

[gravejd 3,382]

Refs will be very important in this one. If they are quick on the whistles and prevent us from putting bodies on the Duke guards then we’ll struggle. If they let us play then I agree our pressure D will wear them down and we pull away in second half

[Dual-Threat Rigby 9,712]

52 minutes ago, gravejd said:

Refs will be very important in this one. If they are quick on the whistles and prevent us from putting bodies on the Duke guards then we’ll struggle. If they let us play then I agree our pressure D will wear them down and we pull away in second half

Basically what I was going to say but the bigs are more important than the guards in this respect IMO. Flagg is as athletic and physical a forward as you can find and he can self create. Chaney is incredibly foul prone, and most of it are not very smart fouls. You compound that with ticky tack refs and we could be without him quickly. I don’t think we really have another good matchup for him on the roster, so he’ll need to be smart 

[81spacetiger 288]

2 hours ago, gravejd said:

Refs will be very important in this one. If they are quick on the whistles and prevent us from putting bodies on the Duke guards then we’ll struggle. If they let us play then I agree our pressure D will wear them down and we pull away in second half

Will the refs come from the SEC since we are on the ACC court?

[au701948 1,202]

9 minutes ago, 81spacetiger said:

Will the refs come from the SEC since we are on the ACC court?

Never thought about that. Good question.

Edited November 29 by au701948

[WillMunny 1,831]

Flagg looked very human in the one game I watched him play, a Duke loss.  Padded his stats at the end, but the TV crew said the other team had a good defensive plan for him, so I imagine we will too.

They don't have an answer for Broome.

[phillyeagle 211]

45 minutes ago, 81spacetiger said:

Will the refs come from the SEC since we are on the ACC court?

I might rather have the ACC refs, lol.

[81spacetiger 288]

I'm watching the Duke/Seatle game (2-4) and its a low scoring game with plenty of no call physical play.  At 10:00 in the 1st half; it's a 15-10 Duke game

Edited November 30 by 81spacetiger

[WillMunny 1,831]

35 minutes ago, 81spacetiger said:

I'm watching the Duke/Seatle game (2-4) and its a low scoring game with plenty of no call physical play.  At 10:00 in the 1st half; it's a 15-10 Duke game

TV?

[81spacetiger 288]

2 minutes ago, WillMunny said:

TV?

yes, one of the ESPN channels (ACC network)

Edited November 30 by 81spacetiger

[WillMunny 1,831]

36 minutes ago, 81spacetiger said:

yes, one of the ESPN channels (ACC network)

OK, yes.  Thanks.

[81spacetiger 288]

Duke takes down Seattle U 70-48 but they looked very unimpressive IMHO.  I expected a greater margin of performance playing at home against a 2-4 team.   I hope they play with that same fire when we roll into town.  It will be electric having Auburn play before a quite crowd...

Edited November 30 by 81spacetiger

[au701948 1,202]

30 minutes ago, 81spacetiger said:

Duke takes down Seattle U 70-48 but they looked very unimpressive IMHO.  I expected a greater margin of performance playing at home against a 2-4 team.   I hope they play with that same fire when we roll into town.  It will be electric having Auburn play before a quite crowd...

That would be a nice thing to watch.

[BustemBigBlue 245]

It’s wild this program has gotten to the point where we are playing at Duke and discussing the real possibility of winning by a wide margin. 

[81spacetiger 288]

1 hour ago, BustemBigBlue said:

It’s wild this program has gotten to the point where we are playing at Duke and discussing the real possibility of winning by a wide margin. 

Yes, but also a sign Duke is not the same as they were as well.  Different coach and a lack of depth on their side will work in our favor - but yes, this is a potential special year for the Auburn team. 

[au701948 1,202]

1 hour ago, BustemBigBlue said:

It’s wild this program has gotten to the point where we are playing at Duke and discussing the real possibility of winning by a wide margin. 

I would love to win in their place. But, I don’t expect it to be by a wide margin.

I just want the win.

Edited November 30 by au701948

[81spacetiger 288]

Too early for a line and over/under, but the ESPN boys have a prediction:

I hope the team knows this as they prepare to play a 2 loss Duke team. I'm sure when a line comes out, we will be favored to win (this is impressive in of itself) and I think we will cover having had a week to get our planning, prep and our legs back under us.  

[Cardin Drake 2,226]

9 minutes ago, au701948 said:

I would love to win in their place. But, I don’t expect it to be by a wide margin.

I just want the win.

Exactly. Duke is a really good team this year. Still learning how to play together but a world of talent.  We are not likely to get through our non-conference schedule unscathed.

[KansasTiger 3,706]

32 minutes ago, 81spacetiger said:

Too early for a line and over/under, but the ESPN boys have a prediction:

I hope the team knows this as they prepare to play a 2 loss Duke team. I'm sure when a line comes out, we will be favored to win (this is impressive in of itself) and I think we will cover having had a week to get our planning, prep and our legs back under us.  

I doubt we'll be favored. Thinking like Duke -2.5 or 3. Cameron is worth 6-7 points in itself. If this was neutral court I'd think we'd be favored by 3.5 but I could be wrong.

[au701948 1,202]

1 hour ago, KansasTiger said:

I doubt we'll be favored. Thinking like Duke -2.5 or 3. Cameron is worth 6-7 points in itself. If this was neutral court I'd think we'd be favored by 3.5 but I could be wrong.

Sounds about right. We just need to start the game in the right mental frame of mind and be physical without getting “called” for fouls.

[mustache eagle 2,511]

21 hours ago, gravejd said:

Refs will be very important in this one. If they are quick on the whistles and prevent us from putting bodies on the Duke guards then we’ll struggle. If they let us play then I agree our pressure D will wear them down and we pull away in second half

So in other words … on their court … we’ll get rung up for 50 fouls …

[81spacetiger 288]

2 hours ago, KansasTiger said:

I doubt we'll be favored. Thinking like Duke -2.5 or 3. Cameron is worth 6-7 points in itself. If this was neutral court, I'd think we'd be favored by 3.5 but I could be wrong.

Could be, but here are there things I see that are getting me excited about the game:

1. After 7 games, it's clear how they're playing to win:

2. But looking at the top 3 playmakers against the top competition:

Copper's point production has dropped; the opponent has more film to study the game and limit his production; we will do the same.  Also, the average time played by these 3 is around 30 min/game.  But you can see in the 3 toughest games, these 3 players play a lot more minutes.  If they play this much against us, they WILL be tired/gassed especially Cooper.  We have more bodies than they have, and it will show up late in the 2nd half.

3.  But this gets me the most jacked up for the game on their home court; looking at the outcome of the top games:

In the 2 Duke losses, they were away games at neutral sites as all of Auburn games.  It looks to me, they have more of an offensive scoring ceiling against quality opponents.  Playing at home, I think they may only get to the low to mid 70's in regulation because they're just playing the top players more.  I don't think they have evolved over the young season as a team or by coaching.  Our tougher games show a different story.  With Houston, we had a different starting 5; JP was the PG.  With the last 3 games, DJ was the PG.  The rest of the players were the same.  The offensive production has increased as CBP is tweaking how he uses the starting 5/rotational players.  I think we can get realistically to the upper 80's.

4. Ref calling could be a major factor in the game.  We have done a good job on defense without causing a lot of PF's but if they call it tighter that might affect us more than it does them.  But I like what has happened to date.

So yes, I will be disappointed if we are not favored in this game.  I think we have the better overall team, we have more depth, they will not have an answer to limit Broome and we will have had a week to prepare for this game.  Duke will only have had 4 days to get ready for this game.  They will have less depth and are more dependent on a few players. Their only clear advantage is home court, it will not be enough.

Is it Wed yet?  We have the Iron Bowl to tide us over...

 

Edited November 30 by 81spacetiger

[Auburn93 1,023]

What a schedule and I hope announcers stop saying if you come to Auburn you only play 20 minutes, and we have a rotation of 10. This year is different. We have guys playing 30+ minutes.

Edited November 30 by Auburn93

[Dual-Threat Rigby 9,712]

2 hours ago, 81spacetiger said:

Could be, but here are there things I see that are getting me excited about the game:

1. After 7 games, it's clear how they're playing to win:

2. But looking at the top 3 playmakers against the top competition:

Copper's point production has dropped; the opponent has more film to study the game and limit his production; we will do the same.  Also, the average time played by these 3 is around 30 min/game.  But you can see in the 3 toughest games, these 3 players play a lot more minutes.  If they play this much against us, they WILL be tired/gassed especially Cooper.  We have more bodies than they have, and it will show up late in the 2nd half.

3.  But this gets me the most jacked up for the game on their home court; looking at the outcome of the top games:

In the 2 Duke losses, they were away games at neutral sites as all of Auburn games.  It looks to me, they have more of an offensive scoring ceiling against quality opponents.  Playing at home, I think they may only get to the low to mid 70's in regulation because they're just playing the top players more.  I don't think they have evolved over the young season as a team or by coaching.  Our tougher games show a different story.  With Houston, we had a different starting 5; JP was the PG.  With the last 3 games, DJ was the PG.  The rest of the players were the same.  The offensive production has increased as CBP is tweaking how he uses the starting 5/rotational players.  I think we can get realistically to the upper 80's.

4. Ref calling could be a major factor in the game.  We have done a good job on defense without causing a lot of PF's but if they call it tighter that might affect us more than it does them.  But I like what has happened to date.

So yes, I will be disappointed if we are not favored in this game.  I think we have the better overall team, we have more depth, they will not have an answer to limit Broome and we will have had a week to prepare for this game.  Duke will only have had 4 days to get ready for this game.  They will have less depth and are more dependent on a few players. Their only clear advantage is home court, it will not be enough.

Is it Wed yet?  We have the Iron Bowl to tide us over...

 

 

 

 

I just skimmed over this post a few times, but I don't see where it gives props for their defense. They do currently have the best DRtg on KenPom. They have held Kentucky, Arizona and Kansas well under their oPPGs (Kentucky by almost 20 points), but that stat is a bit of a misnomer with how many patsies Kentucky has played this year. 

We're also 153rd in fouls per game. Idk if there's a site that tracks foul per minute, but in terms of the raw number, Chaney is giving you 2.3 and CBM is giving you 2.7. I wouldn't really consider CBM a viable defensive option with the strength difference but even if you were, those two are probably your only defensive options for that kid IMO. I just like sketching out the possible timelines where we can lose, and I think Flagg going against our most foul-prone position would be that most realistic timeline. 

Don't think they'll be the better overall team though. The only other thing I would note is Kneuppel is a very tall guard with a quick trigger, an archetype that's given us some trouble with this core at times. Assuming the double big lineup continues, they'll probably put CBM on him to start, a guy we didn't have vs Yale's similarly built player. I wouldn't be shocked if they flipped the matchups and had Broome defend Malaach (spelling) and had Cardwell defend Cooper. Dylan defends a good bit better in space, but he is significantly worse in terms of letting his hands come down to contest guys who blow by him than Broome, which leads to some of those cheap fouls. Going to need both bigs to be smart 

Edited November 30 by Dual-Threat Rigby

[KansasTiger 3,706]

3 hours ago, 81spacetiger said:

Could be, but here are there things I see that are getting me excited about the game:

1. After 7 games, it's clear how they're playing to win:

2. But looking at the top 3 playmakers against the top competition:

Copper's point production has dropped; the opponent has more film to study the game and limit his production; we will do the same.  Also, the average time played by these 3 is around 30 min/game.  But you can see in the 3 toughest games, these 3 players play a lot more minutes.  If they play this much against us, they WILL be tired/gassed especially Cooper.  We have more bodies than they have, and it will show up late in the 2nd half.

3.  But this gets me the most jacked up for the game on their home court; looking at the outcome of the top games:

In the 2 Duke losses, they were away games at neutral sites as all of Auburn games.  It looks to me, they have more of an offensive scoring ceiling against quality opponents.  Playing at home, I think they may only get to the low to mid 70's in regulation because they're just playing the top players more.  I don't think they have evolved over the young season as a team or by coaching.  Our tougher games show a different story.  With Houston, we had a different starting 5; JP was the PG.  With the last 3 games, DJ was the PG.  The rest of the players were the same.  The offensive production has increased as CBP is tweaking how he uses the starting 5/rotational players.  I think we can get realistically to the upper 80's.

4. Ref calling could be a major factor in the game.  We have done a good job on defense without causing a lot of PF's but if they call it tighter that might affect us more than it does them.  But I like what has happened to date.

So yes, I will be disappointed if we are not favored in this game.  I think we have the better overall team, we have more depth, they will not have an answer to limit Broome and we will have had a week to prepare for this game.  Duke will only have had 4 days to get ready for this game.  They will have less depth and are more dependent on a few players. Their only clear advantage is home court, it will not be enough.

Is it Wed yet?  We have the Iron Bowl to tide us over...

 

I dont think it affects my feelings or mood either way about what line they set for the game. That shouldn't affect the on field results very much if at all.