The Harmon Forecast

[GalensGhost 0]

The record said 10-2, but if you could be somewhat objective for ten seconds, you have to realize that was a 6 or 7 win team.

Yeah, and auburn was a 5 win team...come on just be objective. If you dont admit it, you're just being a homer...whatever.

Tyrone also had a FREAK injury that cost him the rest of the season. Had that bad luck not happened, he could have helped us win more games. Had our very talented center not broken his leg, the LSU game wouldnt have been close. Had we not hit the game winner against TT, we very well could have won it in OT.

In 04 you guys kept saying that winning teams...good teams...make their own luck. When we do it in 05, we are just lucky. So i say you are being a typical aunationer and having a double standard.

AU is giving up 11 on WSU and will cover all day long.

Will Alabama cover 15 against Hawaii? I dont know. Probably not. But the way you are talking, it sounds like bama should be happy to even get to play hawaii. And that they will probably lose by 10 or 20 points because we have "questions" on defense. We dont have as many questions as youd like to think.

Outside of strong safety, our secondary will be deeper and better than last year. Outside of MLB our LB corps is proven and capable. Our Dline is very solid and very senior.

Offensively we have the best group of WR, RB, and FB we've had in 10 years. Our Oline will be 100x better than it was in Auburn.

Now, Hawaii lost to La Tech by 32 points last year, 10 to Nevada, 14 to Fresno State, 28 to an average michigan st team.

Hawaii runs a 3-4 defense where ALL the projected LB starters are Sophomores and only one has real game experience. One has no exp, one has 7 career tackles, the other 9. Their entire starting defense has fewer sacks than wallace gilberry logged his freshman year. 3 of their 4 starting DBs have NO game experience...Well 2 are juco transfers and one has 5 whole tackles. Their special teams were among the worst in the nation.

Hawaii will put up points. But bama will put up at least 30. I dont see Hawaii scoring more than 17 points MAX.

I don't think Alabama's offense could put up 30 points against the Mississippi Private School 8th Grade team.

If you truly think the LSU game "wouldn't have been close" had your center not gone out you are FAR, FAR, FAR, FAR, FAR, FAR, FAR, FAR, FAR, FAR, FAR, FAR, FAR, FAR, FAR more delusional and homeristic than I imagined you to be. Your above post also leads me to believe you're not as capable of rational thought as I believed. That was pretty much a horn-tooting exercise in self love. I felt dirty just reading it. Like I'd walked in on some kind of uncomfortable man-crush moment.

Alabama was a six or seven win team (at BEST) last season that got incredibly lucky in a variety of situations. You know it to be true -- or if you don't you're just fooling yourself.

You're vastly overestimating your team's defensive prowess this season and speculating wildly on the improvement of the offensive line. What I hear from Tuscaloosa isn't nearly that optimistic.

All I asked is why I shouldn't put my money on the Rainbows to beat the 15-point spread. You've yet to give me anything other than your hopeful fantasies and wish lists. And you seem pretty defensive. I didn't say UA wouldn't win, didn't say it was a bad team. Just gave you the reasons I think it will be hard for them to cover. Those reasons stand. Neither "We'll be better" nor "we woulda won" are legitimate responses.

[jumbo 0]

UT will beat Cal by 10. Write it down.

I agree UT is going to win a lot of games this year, I think they will contend for the east

[Tiger 8,818]

I definately agree, keep your eyes out for Tennessee to come out of "nowhere" (they have lots of talent, but are ranked relatively low -- like we were in 04) and make a real strong push to take the East. I feel like they are very similar to Auburn's 04 team -- coming off of a bad year, ranked low, very talented, new OC...

[SKCAUB 0]

The record said 10-2, but if you could be somewhat objective for ten seconds, you have to realize that was a 6 or 7 win team.

Yeah, and auburn was a 5 win team...come on just be objective. If you dont admit it, you're just being a homer...whatever.

Tyrone also had a FREAK injury that cost him the rest of the season. Had that bad luck not happened, he could have helped us win more games. Had our very talented center not broken his leg, the LSU game wouldnt have been close. Had we not hit the game winner against TT, we very well could have won it in OT.

In 04 you guys kept saying that winning teams...good teams...make their own luck. When we do it in 05, we are just lucky. So i say you are being a typical aunationer and having a double standard.

AU is giving up 11 on WSU and will cover all day long.

Will Alabama cover 15 against Hawaii? I dont know. Probably not. But the way you are talking, it sounds like bama should be happy to even get to play hawaii. And that they will probably lose by 10 or 20 points because we have "questions" on defense. We dont have as many questions as youd like to think.

Outside of strong safety, our secondary will be deeper and better than last year. Outside of MLB our LB corps is proven and capable. Our Dline is very solid and very senior.

Offensively we have the best group of WR, RB, and FB we've had in 10 years. Our Oline will be 100x better than it was in Auburn.

Now, Hawaii lost to La Tech by 32 points last year, 10 to Nevada, 14 to Fresno State, 28 to an average michigan st team.

Hawaii runs a 3-4 defense where ALL the projected LB starters are Sophomores and only one has real game experience. One has no exp, one has 7 career tackles, the other 9. Their entire starting defense has fewer sacks than wallace gilberry logged his freshman year. 3 of their 4 starting DBs have NO game experience...Well 2 are juco transfers and one has 5 whole tackles. Their special teams were among the worst in the nation.

Hawaii will put up points. But bama will put up at least 30. I dont see Hawaii scoring more than 17 points MAX.

But I AM a , BG...I am a !

[rexbo 104]

Tell me why I shouldn't put money on the 'Bows.

Because 'Bama has 12 National Championships and Bear Bryant used to be their coach!!

[GalensGhost 0]

Tell me why I shouldn't put money on the 'Bows.

Because 'Bama has 12 National Championships and Bear Bryant used to be their coach!!

Yeah. I saw where Kenny Stabler named his new Tuscaloosa restaurant "12" At first I thought that name was representative of the number of wives he'd smacked around plus the square root of his total DUIs, but he claims it refers to some joke Bama fans tell.

[BamaGrad03 146]

Galen, Im not saying we will cover. But all the points I gave you about Hawaii's defense you didnt address. UH is replacing 6 starters on a defense that gave up 36 points per game last year. And their new guys are VERY new. The only way we DONT score 30+ on them is if we are just grinding it out.

Something else to consider. Their backups are also inexperienced. It will be hot/humid and their defense will go up against a team MUCH bigger and more athletic than they are used to. Subbing in a guy who's NEVER played before doesnt bode well for them.

Another look at their secondary tells a scary story. They will start 2 juco transfers (never played a down of d1 college ball), a senior who has 5 career tackles and is coming off of knee surgery, and a Linebacker convert to safety. Their backups? Two juco transfers (no d1 exp) and a special teams "specialist" who has 1 career int. Ironically, the guy buried on the depth chart is the ONLY DB on the team that has an int.

Now, if guys like DJ Hall and Keith Brown can have all sec type years against sec talent, what do you think they are going to do to the UH secondary? If Darby can rack up 5 ypc and 1000+ yard seasons in the sec...what is he going to do to UH's inexperienced front 7?

Galen, Im pretty sure Stabler named his restaurant after the number he wore.

[WAR-MATT 2]

If Shula is smart Darby 30 carries, Upchurch and Johns split around 15 carries = easy bammer win.

[GalensGhost 0]

Galen, Im pretty sure Stabler named his restaurant after the number he wore.

He said in an interview today that wasn't the case.

“Of course, we are very mindful of all the great things related to '12’ here at the Capstone," Stabler said of the restaurant’s new moniker.

“There’s 12 (sic) national championships, and a lot of great names have been associated with that number over the course of time, names like Pat Trammel, Joe Namath and Brodie Croyle, just to name a few."

I do think UA will win. I don't think Bama has the offense to score 36, though, regardless of Hawaii's issues. Maybe they do and they cover. I really don't see them scoring more than 24-28. I think Hawaii will start hot but fade and end up with 14-17. That doesn't cover. Sorry I made you study the Rainbow depth chart. I don't gamble, so the question was actually rhetorical.

I know you know the answer, but I'm curious to know. Did Hall, Darby, etc. really have "all SEC" numbers against SEC competition or did they rack up numbers against the weak sisters of the schedule. Tell you the truth, I don't really remember them doing much of anything in SEC games. My memory isn't the best, though.

[BamaGrad03 146]

Glad you asked:

Ken Darby

vs USC 145 yds (7.3 per) 1 TD

vs Arkansas 98 yds (5.8 per)

vs UF 101 yds (6.7 per)

vs Ole Miss 100 yds (5.0 per) 1 TD

vs UT 86 yds (3.7 per)

vs MSU 122 yds (5.8 per)

vs LSU 104 yards (5.0 per)

vs Auburn 89 yards (4.9 per)

vs TT 81 yards (2.9 per)

vs Southern miss 79 yards 3.6 per

Keith Brown

vs USC 91 yds 2D

vs Arkansas DNP

vs UF 83 yds 1 TD

vs Ole Miss 79 yds

vs UT 38 yards

vs MSU 65 yards

vs LSU 48 yards

vs AU 2 yards

vs TT 141 yars 1 TD

vs Southern Miss 1 catch 11 yards (tyrone had 130 yards)

DJ Hall

vs USC 41 yds

vs Arkansas 54 yds 2 TD

vs UF 0 catches (tyrone had 134 yards and 2 tds)

vs Ole Miss 10 yds (injured in 1st q on his only catch)

vs UT 139 yds

vs MSU 34 yards

vs LSU 48 yards 1 TD

vs AU 57 yards

vs TT DNP

vs Southern Miss 130 yards 1 TD

As noted in another thread...Darby had better numbers vs Irons and common opponents and vs McFadden and common opponents.

[TitanTiger 20,471]

Glad you asked:

Ken Darby

vs USC 145 yds (7.3 per) 1 TD

vs Arkansas 98 yds (5.8 per)

vs UF 101 yds (6.7 per)

vs Ole Miss 100 yds (5.0 per) 1 TD

vs UT 86 yds (3.7 per)

vs MSU 122 yds (5.8 per)

vs LSU 104 yards (5.0 per)

vs Auburn 89 yards (4.9 per)

vs TT 81 yards (2.9 per)

vs Southern miss 79 yards 3.6 per

As noted in another thread...Darby had better numbers vs Irons and common opponents

The above bolded numbers are common opponents plus head to head. Irons numbers:

MSU 28 yds (2.7 ypc)

S. Car 27 yds (2.5 ypc), 2 TD

Ark. 182 yds (5.5 ypc)

LSU 218 yds (8.1 ypc), 1 TD

Ole Miss 101 yds (3.2 ypc), 1 TD

Ala. 103 yds (3.7 ypc), 1 TD

Irons won 3 of the 5 common opponent matchups plus the head to head. And he wasn't even the starter early in the season when we played MSU.

Total yardage in these six matchups:

Darby 658 yds, 2 TDs

Irons 659 yds, 5 TDs

Take out the Bama game and just do common opponents:

Darby 569 yds, 2 TDs

Irons 556 yds, 4 TDs

I think the preponderence of the evidence is in Irons favor and again, that's with Darby as the starter and primary back his entire season and Irons only becoming the starter about mid way through.

[vatz22au 142]

Glad you asked:

Ken Darby

vs USC 145 yds (7.3 per) 1 TD

vs Arkansas 98 yds (5.8 per)

vs UF 101 yds (6.7 per)

vs Ole Miss 100 yds (5.0 per) 1 TD

vs UT 86 yds (3.7 per)

vs MSU 122 yds (5.8 per)

vs LSU 104 yards (5.0 per)

vs Auburn 89 yards (4.9 per)

vs TT 81 yards (2.9 per)

vs Southern miss 79 yards 3.6 per

As noted in another thread...Darby had better numbers vs Irons and common opponents

The above bolded numbers are common opponents plus head to head. Irons numbers:

MSU 28 yds (2.7 ypc)

S. Car 27 yds (2.5 ypc), 2 TD

Ark. 182 yds (5.5 ypc)

LSU 218 yds (8.1 ypc), 1 TD

Ole Miss 101 yds (3.2 ypc), 1 TD

Ala. 103 yds (3.7 ypc), 1 TD

Irons won 3 of the 5 common opponent matchups plus the head to head. And he wasn't even the starter early in the season when we played MSU.

Total yardage in these six matchups:

Darby 658 yds, 2 TDs

Irons 659 yds, 5 TDs

Take out the Bama game and just do common opponents:

Darby 569 yds, 2 TDs

Irons 556 yds, 4 TDs

I think the preponderence of the evidence is in Irons favor and again, that's with Darby as the starter and primary back his entire season and Irons only becoming the starter about mid way through.

So basically, the only time Darby had more yards was when Irons wasn't even the starter....

Cmon BG....

[ECEstudentUA 9]

They also had Boise State beating us last year

yea, i laughed at that one.

[TitanTiger 20,471]

By the way, Irons vs Darby in receiving:

Darby: 29 receptions for 132 yds (4.6 ypc)

Irons: 14 receptions for 164 yds (11.7 ypc)

For what it's worth.

And before someone says it, these stats don't show that Irons is a great back and Darby is lucky to play at all. But they do debunk the myth that Darby performed better overall than Irons.

[OKieAuburnDoug 1]

Irons actually has a great O-line to run behind...unlike Darby....

[freebody 0]

That was pretty much a horn-tooting exercise in self love. I felt dirty just reading it. Like I'd walked in on some kind of uncomfortable man-crush moment.

Sounds like you need some "eye bleach" after walking in on him having a moment with his vat of crimpson cream. (He probably does that with nothing but a houndstooth hat on - he ain't nekkid, he's bahr-nekkid)

[crimsonrunsthrume 0]

Seriously. Bama vs. Hawaii? UA is a prohibitive favorite. If I were betting, I would be putting money on HI and not just because I would chuckle at a bama loss.

Tell me why I shouldn't put money on the 'Bows.

Hello, new here...don't wanna be an instigator, problem-starter, etc, etc...just wanna hear the other team's perspective on Alabama/Auburn Football and the SEC.

Although, couldn't resist this...I don't think Hawaii fared all that well vs a pathetic schedule last year, conversely, Bama plays much better opponents week after week and had a much better record...i'd make sure b4 i bet that i was getting the line plus some...

As for Cal...those guys are flat loaded with talent this year...i wouldn't wanna have to play them (esp game 1 of the year) ...i hope the SEC is represented well...but man, i dunno bout UT still.

[BamaGrad03 146]

Take out the Bama game and just do common opponents:

Darby 569 yds, 2 TDs

Irons 556 yds, 4 TDs

You can't count the Iron Bowl since that's not common opponents. And again, Darby doesnt get the benefit of getting the red zone touchdowns...and Irons ran behind an Oline that was light years ahead of Alabama's.

Either way this is a discussion for a different thread. I think the numbers I posted proved the point that I was making to Galen that we didnt just rack up numbers against weaker opponents.

[TitanTiger 20,471]

Take out the Bama game and just do common opponents:

Darby 569 yds, 2 TDs

Irons 556 yds, 4 TDs

You can't count the Iron Bowl since that's not common opponents. And again, Darby doesnt get the benefit of getting the red zone touchdowns...and Irons ran behind an Oline that was light years ahead of Alabama's.

Either way this is a discussion for a different thread. I think the numbers I posted proved the point that I was making to Galen that we didnt just rack up numbers against weaker opponents.

Well, my point was that even taking out the Iron Bowl, KI outrushed KD in three of the five common opponents games and we within 13 total yds of him and he wasn't even the starter/main back in one of the five.

[vatz22au 142]

Take out the Bama game and just do common opponents:

Darby 569 yds, 2 TDs

Irons 556 yds, 4 TDs

You can't count the Iron Bowl since that's not common opponents. And again, Darby doesnt get the benefit of getting the red zone touchdowns...and Irons ran behind an Oline that was light years ahead of Alabama's.

Either way this is a discussion for a different thread. I think the numbers I posted proved the point that I was making to Galen that we didnt just rack up numbers against weaker opponents.

BG, you made the statement of:

As noted in another thread...Darby had better numbers vs Irons and common opponents and vs McFadden and common opponents.

That was lame. Very lame. The only games in which Darby had better numbers over Irons was when Irons didn't even start.

[DKW 86 7,411]

Hello, new here...don't wanna be an instigator, problem-starter, etc, etc...just wanna hear the other team's perspective on Alabama/Auburn Football and the SEC.

Although, couldn't resist this...I don't think Hawaii fared all that well vs a pathetic schedule last year, conversely, Bama plays much better opponents week after week and had a much better record...i'd make sure b4 i bet that i was getting the line plus some...

As for Cal...those guys are flat loaded with talent this year...i wouldn't wanna have to play them (esp game 1 of the year) ...i hope the SEC is represented well...but man, i dunno bout UT still.

Welcome aboard.

I had not looked at Ha-why-yer's season last year till BG showed it just above. June Jones is a perfcet fit out there. Just good enough to keep Hawaii interesting and develop an NFL baller or two. They play in a very weak conference. They have a very weak schedule for the most part. They had a horrendous 05 even for them. I just do not see Hawaii keeping it close for even a half, even if Bama comes out flat as a pancake. CMS will be very deep into the roster by the third series of the 3rd quarter.

[crimsonrunsthrume 0]

Thanks DKW.

Yeah, Jones is a good coach and he has a good de coordinator too. The thing about Hawaii is that they are kinda scarey...you just never know what you'll get from them. I think that Bama has a problem that it hasn't had in years (depth)...be it youthful or not...we actually have BACKUPS! LOL Should be a decent season...next year will be better for us though.

As for you guys...does WSU still have the high flying offense or has that since fizzled? I think if you guys give em a steady dose of KI and keep the receivers happy, play "steady" de...that'll be enough.

Gotta question...am i missing something or are several SEC schools playing Pac 10? What's the skinny? Scheduling coincidence or is it an SEC/PAC 10 thing? I really hope the SEC whoops up on em...tired of USC and i have a feeling that Cal will be better than them.

I can't wait for the flippin season...MSU and SC kickoff in 18 days! Maybe Croom will upset the Ole Ball Coach.

[DKW 86 7,411]

I think we are all scared a bit about WSU. They cannot be taken lightly and they are extrememly fired up about their coach losing his wife to cancer just a few months ago. They could be very dangerous.

As for I TRULY feel sorry for Croom. He inherited a program on probation that has no talent too, far worse off than even CTT got at Ole Miss or AU and far far worse than CMS got at

Croom is a good coach with a great staff. If I suddenly got a HC job somewhere I would definitely look at Croom's staff. They are proven winners. Unfortunately they do not suit up though. is a team with little talent, and going nowhere. Croom may save his job by beating for the next year or so.

As far as , CSS will destroy as a fortaste of the looming glory days at That game will not even be close.

[WAR-MATT 2]

How did this turn into another Irons vs, Darby thread?

We are all handicapping geniuses before the season starts. Do I think Bama beats the rainbows? Yes. Will they cover? Who knows.

Being the gambling junkie that I’ am, I know that Bama’s percentages of covering the spread have been pretty low the past couple of years.

[BamaGrad03 146]

Being the gambling junkie that I’ am, I know that Bama’s percentages of covering the spread have been pretty low the past couple of years.

Couple of years? Try always. Bama sucks for gamblers. They hardly ever cover when favored, and usually screw up spreads when they are the underdog.