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Storm Brewing


StatTiger

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Possible Storm Brewing

A football weather advisory has been posted at Jordan-Hare for September 2nd, with a strong warning of footballs raining through the Auburn secondary and a slanted front smothering the Auburn offensive line. It should be a vicious storm originating in Pullman, Washington making it’s way to Auburn, Alabama.

We all know the Cougars posted a 4-7 record last year but five of their losses were by four points or less. Last season, the Cougars were No. 8 in the nation in total offense averaging 489-yards and 33 points per game. Defense was the Achilles heel of the Cougars football team in 2005 and any improvement could flip-flop a 4-7 campaign into an 8-4 season should their offense continue to click.

The Cougars were balanced on offense last season but they must replace Jerome Harrison at running back, who rushed for 1900-yards last season. Quarterback, Alex Brink returns behind center and is considered one of the top quarterbacks in the country. The Cougars are pumped for the 2006 season and their players are focused on the challenge of playing one of the best teams from the Southeastern Conference. Should the Auburn players take this game lightly, a repeat of the Capital One Bowl is more than likely.

Previous Outings…

Over the past five years, the Auburn Tigers have competed against nineteen teams that averaged over 400-yards per game on offense during the course of an entire season. Auburn’s record against those teams was 8-11. Here are some other numbers to remember…

· Auburn allowed 24 or more points in 12 of the 19 contests, posting a 2-10 record when allowing 24 or more points.

· Auburn surrendered at least three touchdowns in 12 of the 19 games.

· Auburn is 4-2 in games where the opponent passed for over 300-yards.

· Auburn is 4-2 in games the opponent is held to under 100-yards rushing.

· Auburn is 3-6 in games the opponent rushes for 150-yards or more.

· Auburn is 2-4 in games the opponent totals over 400-yards in offense.

· Six of Auburn’s 11 defeats were by 14 or more points.

· Auburn’s margin of victory is 8.2 points with the most impressive victory coming against Georgia (24-6) in 2004.

· Auburn’s margin of defeat is 15.0 points with the worst defeat against the Florida Gators (38-7) during the 2000 season.

As lethal as the Washington State passing game might be, the concern should still be centered on the Cougar running game. The majority of Auburn’s losses to quality offensive teams have come at the hands of a team with a good running game and a balanced offense. Auburn has normally faired well against one-dimensional opponents, especially those teams that featured the passing game.

Over the past five years, Auburn has allowed an average of 379.5 yards and 23 points per game against “quality” offensive opponents. 14 of the 19 opponents have scored at least 20 points, which means the Auburn offense will be called upon to ride out the storm. Auburn’s opponents have compiled a 134.8 quarterback rating, completing 58% of their passes for an average of 250-yards passing per game. This also includes a 7.63 average per pass attempt and a 1.67 touchdown / interception ratio. Whether or not Auburn’s offense executes on opening night, Washington State will throw the ball at least 30-35 times. Odds are, the Cougars will easily pass for at least 250-yards but stopping the run will be the Tigers key to success.

About Washington State…

The Cougars are coming off back-to-back losing seasons but they also strung together three consecutive 10-win seasons prior to their losing streak. Like most Pac-10 teams, the Cougars depend upon a wide-open offense to win games but they are one of the few who compliment their passing game with a solid running game. For those that question the Cougar’s defense, don’t forget Auburn’s offensive showing against an average Wisconsin defense in 2005.

Entering preseason practice, the Cougars are still searching for a running back to replace Jerome Harrison and it just might be a committee of running backs in 2006. DeMaundray Woolridge (RB) could be the solution, posting two 100-yard rushing games, while averaging six yards per carry as a reserve last year. Alex Brink enters his third season as the primary starter with a career QB rating of 130.6. Over the past two seasons, Brink has performed very well considering the Cougars have consistently trailed on the scoreboard. Brink has passed for over 200-yards in 12 of 18 appearances, while throwing at least two touchdowns in 7 of 11 starts in 2005.

Jason Hill remains the Cougar’s premier offensive weapon as well as being one of the top receivers in the nation. Hill has a career average of 19.6 yards per reception and 25 touchdown receptions entering his final year in Wazzou. With the focus on the Cougar’s wide receivers, Cody Boyd (TE) might be the Cougar’s secret weapon against the Tigers. Boyd has 60 career receptions, giving Brink a huge target to throw to against Auburn’s undersized linebackers.

Washington State’s point production against Division I opponents with a winning record:

2001: 27.4 PPG

2002: 31.1 PPG

2003: 31.6 PPG

2004: 18.4 PPG

2005: 33.7 PPG

Say what you will about Pac-10 defenses but the Cougars have shown the ability to score against solid competition in the past several years. Over the last five seasons, Auburn has surrendered an average of 23 points per game to quality offensive opponents. Over the last three years, that average has improved to 18.5 points per game. The only problem is that Auburn’s offense has averaged only 11.8 points per game during the same time period. For the most part, Auburn’s defense has played more consistently than the Tiger offense against quality opponents.

Final thoughts…

Initially, the focus of the game will be on Auburn’s defense and Washington State’s high scoring offense but the game will be decided by Auburn’s offensive performance. One of the main reasons why Auburn’s defense has surrendered nearly 380-yards to quality opponents has been the struggle on the offensive side of the ball. In 11 of the 19 games over the last five years, Auburn’s offense has been held to under 20 points, placing more of a burden on the Tiger defense. Despite giving up 548-yards to the Badgers in the Capital One Bowl, Wisconsin only scored 24 points. Had the Auburn offense executed well, the game would have been competitive and Wisconsin’s offense would not have been on the field as often as they were.

The Auburn Tigers gained over 400-yards total offense in four of the previously mentioned 19 games and were held to under 300-yards on nine occasions. Looking back at the games against Southern Cal, the Tiger defense played well enough to win both games. The Trojans gained 386-yards in 2002 and 315-yards in 2003. On the other hand, the Trojans held Auburn to 281-yards in 2002 and only 164-yards in 2003. Take away the two games against Louisiana Tech and Auburn has averaged 311-yards and 15 points per game against opponents with a quality offense.

Based on Auburn’s recent production against good offensive teams and what Washington State returns in 2006, odds are the Cougars will have success moving the football against Auburn. With the addition of a new defensive coordinator and new faces at critical positions, Auburn will more than likely make a few mistakes on defense. It’s essential the Auburn offense operate efficiently should these mistakes occur on defense.

Any speculation Auburn will “blow out” Washington State is just that, speculation. Recent history indicates Auburn should win the game but not in a blow out. Unless Alex Brink is unable to complete the game, the Cougars should have success throwing the ball. The key will be making them one-dimensional and taking away their running game.

Coach Al Borges is very familiar with the Pac-10, Washington State in particular. He should be able to adjust his offense accordingly, should the Tiger defense struggle. If the Auburn Tiger offense executes well, Auburn should have no problem coming away with a victory.

With the combination of the Cougars “big play” ability and Auburn’s youth on defense, there is a high probability of Auburn giving up the big play. On the other side, there is every indication Auburn will be much more physical on defense with an emphasis placed on forcing turnovers. Alex Brink threw at least two interceptions in 5 of his 11 starts last year despite the fact the Cougars allowed only 18 quarterback sacks in 2005. Coach Will Muschamp has stressed the importance of forcing turnovers during spring and preseason practices. Last season, Auburn struggled against athletic quarterbacks and Brink will be a more stationary target compared to a D.J. Shockley.

Coach Al Borges is arguably the best offensive coordinator in school history but Auburn was not the smooth running machine they were during the 2004 season. Auburn’s running game remains the foundation of the Tiger offense but it will be the passing game which will decide just how good the offense can be in 2006. With the loss of three starting receivers and Brandon Cox’s poor performances when the running game was taken away, you can bet Washington State will sell out to stop the running game. Like Jason Campbell, Cox will have to prove he can carry the offense when the running game is taken away. Last year, Cox compiled a QB rating of 100.2 during the two games Auburn was held to under 100-yards rushing. Jason Campbell posted a 101.2 rating in the four games Auburn was held to under 100-yards rushing in 2003 but improved with a 165.7 rating in the two lowest rushing outputs during the 2004 season.

Yes, there is a storm brewing for the eighth installment of Tommy Tuberville’s Auburn Tigers and it’s the 2006 Washington State Cougars. When the Tigers take to the field on September 2nd, they will be facing more than a team from the Pac-10 conference. They will be fighting all the ghosts from the past; including the assumption Auburn buckles under high expectations. The time has come to remove the “preseason” label and put it to rest.

:au::football::cheer:

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Amen Stat...Amen!

:au::homer:

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Great work again,

Here are the two factors that i think will play the biggest part of the game.

1. Our defense is very very talented and could be the best unit in the SEC but we are young in areas. With that said the key is not giving up the big play on D and with the agressive style we will have chances to force turnover we just must execute when we get that chance.

2. The wide receivers are also a question mark. I dont know alot about the individual recievers but it is key for the whole season that somebody steps up, whether it be Rod Smith, P-Rod, Robert Dunn, Lee Guess or Hawthorne. The recievers seem to be talented but inexperianced and i am not really sure what to expect.

On the bright side both of these quetion marks have the talent to be great and just need a little bit of expericence.

War Eagle

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Based on Auburn’s recent production against good offensive teams and what Washington State returns in 2006, odds are the Cougars will have success moving the football against Auburn. With the addition of a new defensive coordinator and new faces at critical positions, Auburn will more than likely make a few mistakes on defense. It’s essential the Auburn offense operate efficiently should these mistakes occur on defense.

This pretty much nailed it. Those new faces in key positions have worried me all summer. The offense must produce with some consistency and be able to pick up for the mistakes our defense makes. If they don't, they'll lose the game for our defense just like USC 2003, GT 2003, and GT 2005, no doubt. I see no reason why our offense can't come out with a fire under them...they have too many weapons not to.

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This pretty much nailed it. Those new faces in key positions have worried me all summer. The offense must produce with some consistency and be able to pick up for the mistakes our defense makes. If they don't, they'll lose the game for our defense just like USC 2003, GT 2003, and GT 2005, no doubt. I see no reason why our offense can't come out with a fire under them...they have too many weapons not to.

Except for the WR position, there is no reason why Auburn should not be one of the top offenses in the conference. Looking at the talent level, depth and coaching, I cannot recall a season our offense was this loaded coming into a season. Brandon had a good year in 2005 but will have to take it to another level for Auburn to be a top-five program all year.

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Best thing for the Tigers is a fast start. A quick stop on defense or an opening scoring drive on offense. The coaches have made comments about lack of leadership, so the best thing is not to get knocked back on our heels.

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This pretty much nailed it. Those new faces in key positions have worried me all summer. The offense must produce with some consistency and be able to pick up for the mistakes our defense makes. If they don't, they'll lose the game for our defense just like USC 2003, GT 2003, and GT 2005, no doubt. I see no reason why our offense can't come out with a fire under them...they have too many weapons not to.

Except for the WR position, there is no reason why Auburn should not be one of the top offenses in the conference. Looking at the talent level, depth and coaching, I cannot recall a season our offense was this loaded coming into a season. Brandon had a good year in 2005 but will have to take it to another level for Auburn to be a top-five program all year.

I tell ya, I think the WRs will be very good and suprise a lot of people. P-Rod, Dunn, and Hawthorne all have big play potential and will do good. They will be ok.

The key for me is AU controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides. On offense...solid run game, pass protection....on defense...make WSU one dimensional, stuffing the run, pressure on QB!! We do that we will win!!

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This pretty much nailed it. Those new faces in key positions have worried me all summer. The offense must produce with some consistency and be able to pick up for the mistakes our defense makes. If they don't, they'll lose the game for our defense just like USC 2003, GT 2003, and GT 2005, no doubt. I see no reason why our offense can't come out with a fire under them...they have too many weapons not to.

Except for the WR position, there is no reason why Auburn should not be one of the top offenses in the conference. Looking at the talent level, depth and coaching, I cannot recall a season our offense was this loaded coming into a season. Brandon had a good year in 2005 but will have to take it to another level for Auburn to be a top-five program all year.

You are correct, as per your usual.

Two words on the passing game....Tommy Trott ! ! !

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Don't forget about Courtney Taylor. Courtney will have a blow out year......if he can stay healthy!

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