Toughest Schedules Article

[Justin5 20]

They miss the boat on Auburn, I guess because they are not focusing on the added toughness of road games but they give the SEC major respect.

http://cbs.sportsline.com/collegefootball/story/10299697

Toughest/Easiest Schedules: Huskies rank first, but that's bad

Dennis Dodd Aug. 17, 2007

By Dennis Dodd

CBS SportsLine.com Senior Writer

Tell Dennis your opinion!

Ty Willingham did this to himself. Gladly signed off on it without -- let's be clear -- any sort of high-caliber coercion aimed at his temple.

The same goes for his boss at Washington, AD Todd Turner. There is no known use of hallucinogens in his past, so we can rule out bad acid too.

So what happened to possibly squash the hopes and dreams of a bunch of up and coming Huskies this season? The toughest schedule in the country. It isn't even close. LSU is a distant second in my Tough Schedules Homogenous Index Table.

Shortened that's Tough S-H-I- ... Woops. I may have to re-think that abbreviation, but at Washington it fits.

I ran the 2007 schedules of all 119 I-A teams through my turbo-powered desk calculator (see "Notes on the formula" below) and was able to give definition to something so heinous that you feel sorry for the fine men of U-Dub this season.

Even before the schedule became an issue, 2007 was more about survival at Washington. Willingham is 7-16 in his two seasons. Redshirt freshman quarterback Jake Locker is being broken in. He'll try to counter a defense that was 95th nationally last season.

The last Washington bowl game was two coaches and 4½ years ago.

Consider the potential suffering for Husky Nation that lies ahead. Combined winning percentage of opponents: .633. Six of the nine Pac-10 conference foes made bowl games last season. There are nine bowl teams total on the schedule. Six of those won at least 10 games in 2006. Two top 10s from last season -- Boise State and Ohio State -- come to Seattle in consecutive September weekends.

"I'm a genius," Turner said with mock hubris.

And it could have been worse. At one time Washington was playing Oklahoma, Ohio State and USC this season in consecutive games. Even Turner realized that's not a schedule, that's the Bowl Championship Series.

Toughest Schedules

1. Washington

2. LSU

3t. Kentucky

3t. Mississippi

3t. Mississippi State

6. Army

7t. UCLA

7t. Stanford

9. Oregon

10t. South Florida

10t. Cincinnati

Easiest Schedules

119. Louisiana-Lafayette

118. Louisiana-Monroe

117t. Miami (Ohio)

117t. Central Michigan

117t. Temple

114. Arkansas State

113. Florida Int'l

112. Florida Atlantic

111. Memphis

110t. Ohio

110t. Toledo

110t. Eastern Michigan

"We can't do that," Turner said to himself upon taking the job. "The first thing I did was call Joe Castiglione (Oklahoma's AD) and say, 'Can we defer that game? We need a non-return game.' "

So Turner pushed Oklahoma to 2008 and wisely replaced it with the team that beat the Sooners in the Fiesta Bowl, Boise State.

"I didn't know they'd have a 13-game winning streak," Turner said.

That's the thing about scheduling. Future schedules seem to be firmed up about three decades in advance. Yesterday's date with a midget wrestler can become a steel cage death match with Andre the Giant.

So here comes the folding chair across the shoulder blades. Never mind that Ty and Todd are basically swinging it:

• Why not fly 3,000 miles and open the season at what could be suddenly dangerous Syracuse? What ESPN wants, ESPN gets in this pre-arranged made-for-TV meeting.

• Why not open the home season against the nation's hottest team? The idea of Boise being more big time than Washington was once laughable. Don't worry about the choke factor when WAC meets Pac-10. Boise already has had its close up in the Fiesta. Since Jan. 1, the story of the 2006 Broncos has been turned into a documentary and at least a couple of books. No truth to the rumor that Chris Petersen is demanding a Husky Stadium suite for his entourage.

• Why not welcome in the man who fired you? That's the uncomfortable situation Turner will face when he shakes hands with (or a fist at) Ohio State president Gordon Gee in Week 3.

The only reason Turner is at Washington is because Gee, then at Vanderbilt, did away with the athletic department in 2003. No athletic department. No need for an athletic director. Thanks, Todd. See you down the road.

"I'll have one of his bow-tie cookies," Turner said remembering Gee's favorite home-baked treats on game days.

Any temptation to crumble one of the cookies into Gee's mug?

"Heck no, are you kidding me?" Turner said. "He's an interesting guy."

Let's see how interesting Gee is in the fourth quarter of a double-digit Washington loss.

One upshot of playing up: Washington should be featured prominently in the Heisman race -- mostly, its defense on highlight reels trying to stop top contenders Ian Johnson (Boise), John David Booty (USC), DeSean Jackson (Cal) and Colt Brennan (Hawaii).

Turner had to know that only toddlers in traffic are more vulnerable than his program right now. No need to rehash Rick Neuheisel's ultimate hit and run. But just when Willingham was dragging the Huskies out of the mud (with a promising 5-7 in '06), coach and AD tried to make it rain.

In terms of scheduling.

Rating by Conferences

Conference Avg*

1. SEC 13.25

2. Big East 23.63

3. Pac-10 25.50

4. Big Ten 43.04

5. Big 12 49.75

6. ACC 63.79

7. Mountain West 67.55

8. WAC 74.66

9. Conference USA 91.91

10. MAC 106.23

11. Sun Belt 107.50

*Average strength of schedule rankings

The season could have ended (mercifully?) on Nov. 24 in the Apple Cup against Washington State. But Willingham agreed to tacking on a 13th game with a trip to Honolulu.

Amid the ocean breezes, Washington might be playing for its postseason life and -- who knows? -- Willingham's job. It's tough enough to get to 6-6 for bowl eligibility. If Washington makes it to that point by Dec. 1, Washington would have to win that 13th game to remain bowl eligible at 7-6.

Congratulations on this front, Todd: Playing this schedule means you have more stones than your average SEC AD, most of whom are busy cutting non-conference guarantee checks to the Nicholls States of the world.

It's the age-old balance between sexy schedule and sexy record. The Huskies have lost eight out of their last nine non-conference games to BCS-league schools. It's hard to have your (Ohio) State and beat it too.

"People in the Northwest like those schedules," Turner said. "All I had to do was look at the history whether it means playing Miami (2001), Oklahoma (2006, 2008) or Michigan (2001-2002). It's something that Washington has always done."

And will continue to do. Notre Dame, Nebraska and BYU have been added to future schedules.

Own it, Todd. You're No. 1, Tough SH--.

I've really got to re-think that abbreviation thing.

Notes on the formula

Each conference started with a base number. That number was reached by determining the overall 2006 winning percentage of each conference. In the Pac-10, for example, that number was .5511. To that number was added the conference's percentage of 2006 bowl teams multiplied by .75. Seventy-five percent of the Pac-10's six bowl teams (60 percent) is .45.

Added together the Pac-10's base number is 1.0011.

Teams were then given credit for playing 2006 bowl teams in the non-conference (.0178 per team) and for each game overall played against a 10-win team (.109).

The thinking being that even though it is a new year, playing bowl teams -- especially really good bowl teams -- will have some carryover. Ten wins is a good benchmark for achievement because only 26 of 119 I-A teams got to that mark in 2006. Roughly one in five (21.8 percent)

So adding Washington's base number (1.0011) to its non-conference bowl team number (3 x .0178=.0534), and then to its 10-win number (6 x .109=.654), you get 1.7085.

The SEC has the toughest schedule strength as a conference largely because nine of its 12 teams went to bowls last season. The league has nine of the top 16 teams in this season's rankings. All 12 teams are in the top 27. Defending champion Florida is 25th.

Preseason No. 1 USC is tied for the 37th-toughest schedule. Two years ago Texas won the national championship with a schedule that was tied for 36th. Of the toughest schedules in each the 11 I-A conferences, only two top 25 teams are represented. LSU is tops in the SEC. Nebraska is best in the Big 12.

The toughest schedules of teams in the top five talent-producing states: California (Stanford, UCLA), Texas (Texas), Florida (South Florida), Pennsylvania (Penn State), Ohio (Cincinnati).

Rank College Conference '06 Record

1 Washington Pac-10 5-7

2 LSU SEC 11-2

3 Kentucky SEC 8-5

3 Mississippi SEC 4-8

3 Mississippi State SEC 3-9

6 Army Independent 3-9

7 UCLA Pac-10 7-6

7 Stanford Pac-10 1-11

9 Oregon Pac-10 7-6

10 South Florida Big East 9-4

10 Cincinnati Big East 8-5

12 Tennessee SEC 9-4

12 Auburn SEC 11-2

12 Alabama SEC 6-7

15 South Carolina SEC 8-5

15 Vanderbilt SEC 4-8

17 Purdue Big Ten 8-6

18 Penn State Big Ten 9-4

19 Arizona Pac-10 6-6

20 Pittsburgh Big East 6-6

20 Syracuse Big East 4-8

22 Washington State Pac-10 6-6

23 Georgia SEC 9-4

24 Connecticut Big East 4-8

25 Florida SEC 13-1

26 Nebraska Big 12 9-5

27 Arkansas SEC 10-4

28 Michigan State Big Ten 4-8

28 Illinois Big Ten 2-10

30 Baylor Big 12 4-8

31 Notre Dame Independent 10-3

32 Michigan Big Ten 11-2

33 Louisville Big East 12-1

33 West Virginia Big East 11-2

35 Georgia Tech ACC 9-5

36 Rutgers Big East 11-2

37 Southern California Pac-10 11-2

37 Arizona State Pac-10 7-6

39 Minnesota Big Ten 6-7

40 Navy Independent 9-4

41 Miami (Fla.) ACC 7-6

41 Duke ACC 0-12

43 Utah Mountain West 8-5

43 UNLV Mountain West 2-10

45 Kansas State Big 12 7-6

45 Texas Big 12 10-3

45 Oklahoma State Big 12 7-6

48 Louisiana Tech WAC 3-10

49 Colorado State Mountain West 4-8

50 Iowa State Big 12 4-8

50 Texas A&M Big 12 9-4

50 Texas Tech Big 12 8-5

53 Maryland ACC 9-4

54 Wisconsin Big Ten 12-1

54 Northwestern Big Ten 4-8

56 Oregon State Pac-10 10-4

57 Ohio State Big Ten 12-1

58 California Pac-10 10-3

59 Colorado Big 12 2-10

59 Oklahoma Big 12 11-3

61 Idaho WAC 4-8

62 Virginia Tech ACC 10-3

63 Air Force Mountain West 4-8

63 Wyoming Mountain West 6-6

65 Kansas Big 12 6-6

65 Missouri Big 12 8-5

67 New Mexico State WAC 4-8

67 Utah State WAC 1-11

69 Iowa Big Ten 6-7

69 Clemson ACC 8-5

69 North Carolina State ACC 3-9

69 Wake Forest ACC 11-3

73 Boston College ACC 10-3

74 Indiana Big Ten 5-7

75 East Carolina C-USA 7-6

75 Tulsa C-USA 8-5

77 Troy Sun Belt 8-5

78 San Jose State WAC 9-4

78 Fresno State WAC 4-8

80 North Carolina ACC 3-9

81 San Diego State Mountain West 3-9

82 Nevada WAC 8-5

83 Florida State ACC 7-6

84 TCU Mountain West 11-2

85 Virginia ACC 5-7

86 Marshall C-USA 5-7

86 Houston C-USA 10-4

88 New Mexico Mountain West 6-7

89 Rice C-USA 7-6

89 SMU C-USA 6-6

91 Tulane C-USA 4-8

92 BYU Mountain West 11-2

93 Boise State WAC 13-0

94 Western Michigan MAC 8-5

94 Northern Illinois MAC 7-6

96 Hawaii WAC 11-3

97 Kent State MAC 6-6

98 UAB C-USA 3-9

99 Southern Mississippi C-USA 9-5

99 UCF C-USA 4-8

99 Texas-El Paso C-USA 5-7

102 Akron MAC 5-7

103 North Texas Sun Belt 3-9

104 Middle Tennessee Sun Belt 7-6

105 Bowling Green MAC 4-8

105 Buffalo MAC 2-10

105 Ball State MAC 5-7

108 Ohio MAC 9-5

108 Toledo MAC 5-7

108 Eastern Michigan MAC 1-11

111 Memphis C-USA 2-10

112 Florida Atlantic Sun Belt 5-7

113 Florida International Sun Belt 0-12

114 Arkansas State Sun Belt 6-6

115 Temple MAC 1-11

115 Miami (Ohio) MAC 2-10

115 Central Michigan MAC 10-4

118 Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 4-8

119 Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt 6-6