New Polls

[RunInRed 18,320]

Ugh oh...the facts are not telling the story many want to advance...

There was a lot of speculation that after "pastor-gate" Obama was "done". You guys said he was getting hammered in the polls and that he would not be able to recover. Polls last week dispelled this notion and the gap continues to widen...

(CNN)—Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama extended his lead nationally over Sen. Hillary Clinton Monday according to the latest national polls.

The Gallup Poll conducted March 27-29 with a margin of error of 3 percentage points shows the Illinois Senator has a 10 percent lead over the New York Senator among Democrats, marking the first time since early February Gallup polls have shown either candidate with a double digit lead. In February, Gallup showed Clinton held an 11 percent advantage over Obama.

Last week’s Pew Poll also confirmed Obama had weathered the media storm surrounding the Reverend Wright controversy and maintained his lead.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

[RunInRed 18,320]

Also...

WASHINGTON — Barack Obama has gained another superdelegate. Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar endorsed her Illinois colleague Sunday night, saying in a statement that Obama “has inspired an enthusiasm and idealism that we have not seen in this country in a long time.”

It is the latest development among many that have been putting Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign on its heels. On Monday, Obama was poised to receive the endorsement of the seven Democrats on North Carolina’s congressional delegation, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Obama also got support last week from Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey, a key endorsement three weeks before the Keystone State holds its primary.

The Klobuchar, Casey and expected North Carolina lawmaker endorsements are crucial, because all of them will be superdelegates at the August party convention.

The Journal reported that while Clinton still leads Obama in the superdelegate tally, Clinton has won only nine superdelegate pledges to Obama’s 64 since Super Tuesday.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/03/30/ob...-amy-klobuchar/

[otterinbham 0]

Well, duh. But Obama's bump in the polls has a lot more to do with the absolute shredding Hillary received in the press over her gigantic lies about her visit to Bosnia. Compared to that, Obama's attendance of the church in question was small potatoes.

[RunInRed 18,320]

Well, duh. But Obama's bump in the polls has a lot more to do with the absolute shredding Hillary received in the press over her gigantic lies about her visit to Bosnia. Compared to that, Obama's attendance of the church in question was small potatoes.

Good point. Interestingly, there was about 50 posts on this board about Wright and maybe 1 or 2 about Bosnia. The media coverage was also similiar in scale.

[BamaGrad03 0]

There was a lot of speculation that after "pastor-gate" Obama was "done". You guys said he was getting hammered in the polls and that he would not be able to recover. Polls last week dispelled this notion and the gap continues to widen...

"A lot"...really? I felt the general consensus around here and elsewhere was that Obama would still win the nomination.

You're like that 1 seed in the tournament that talks in the pre-game interview about how "nobody respects us...were gonna beat this 5 seed today and shock the world"

[WinCrimson 61]

As much as I would like for it to be, I have to think that this "good news" is not as favorable toward Obama as you would like for it to be.

Yes, he's beaten Hillary Clinton and will be the Democratic nominee. However, winning the nomination and winning the White House are two entirely different animals. Just because he's wins North Carolina against her doesn't mean he will win it in November.

According to the latest polls, Obama is losing to McCain in the blue states of Michigan, New Jersey, and Wisconsin. The race is tied in Massachusetts and Obama just eeks out a win in Oregon. Granted, these results are all within the margin of error, but for a Democrat to be playing defense in liberal states can't be seen as a good sign. It's also worth noting that he's now polling very poorly in states that the party had its sights on flipping from red to blue -- Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida. Thank God the election isn't tomorrow.

Wright's verbal diarrhea may very well subvert years of hard work. This campaign's got a long way to go.

[RunInRed 18,320]

As much as I would like for it to be, I have to think that this "good news" is not as favorable toward Obama as you would like for it to be.

Yes, he's beaten Hillary Clinton and will be the Democratic nominee. However, winning the nomination and winning the White House are two entirely different animals. Just because he's wins North Carolina against her doesn't mean he will win it in November.

According to the latest polls, Obama is losing to McCain in the blue states of Michigan, New Jersey, and Wisconsin. The race is tied in Massachusetts and Obama just eeks out a win in Oregon. Granted, these results are all within the margin of error, but for a Democrat to be playing defense in liberal states can't be seen as a good sign. It's also worth noting that he's now polling very poorly in states that the party had its sights on flipping from red to blue -- Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida. Thank God the election isn't tomorrow.

Wright's verbal diarrhea may very well subvert years of hard work. This campaign's got a long way to go.

I think it's pretty misleading and apple and oranges to look at general election polls now. McCain has had the nomination sewn up for a while now...the Democrats are still fighting for a nominee. Let's look at these state's polls come September.

But I do think Obama has a much better chance than hillary to put some '04 red states into play. Maybe not NC...but Virginia, Arizona, West Virginia, Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, New Mexico, Iowa, etc.

[WinCrimson 61]

Obama would run better in Arkansas? C'mon now, red. And Shug Jordan would run better than Bear Bryant in Tuscaloosa County?

With Obama as the nominee, some of the lighter blue states and lighter red states will be in play. He has a very good chance at winning Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa, but will stand absolutely no chance in West Virginia, Arkansas, and McCain's home state of Arizona. He'll face an uphill battle in Virgina, but can pull it out with a strong turnout in Fairfax/Arlington/Newport News. Vet Jim Webb would be a huge asset as a running mate.

He'll increase on some of Kerry's momentum in the interior west and possibly even take a Libertarian bent Montana. He's got to do as good as Kerry did in New England. This will be tougher because we're not facing an ignorant cowboy, but rather a man who is respected by all and seen (although without merit) as a centrist. New Hampshire and Maine are must wins and he's got to break this thing open in reliable Massachusetts and New Jersey.

I agree that these early polls are not necessarily foreshadowing of November, but have to point out how fast the rabid Republican states gravitated toward a man they've doubted for years. I'm looking at you, Alabama.

[BamaGrad03 0]

I agree that these early polls are not necessarily foreshadowing of November, but have to point out how fast the rabid Republican states gravitated toward a man they've doubted for years. I'm looking at you, Alabama.

Because the alternatives aren't two they've questioned...but rather one they loathe in Hillary, and one who's policies are on the extreme end of the opposite spectrum in Obama.

Republicans would vote for a moderate over a socialist all day long.

[otterinbham 0]

The country always shifts to the right in October, barring a true moderate Democrat. I like Obama, but there's nothing moderate about him--no matter how much he talks the talk.

At this point, barring a major gaffe on his part, it will be McCain's election to lose. Obama is just 2008's version of Dukakis and Mondale. When will the Democratic Party learn?

[Auburn85 436]

so did this poll ask people in all states, meaning states that have already had their primary? or was this poll conducted in states that haven't had their primary?

granted i clicked on the links, but only glanced at the info. from what i did see, it didn't give any indication on who they asked.

[RunInRed 18,320]

Obama would run better in Arkansas? C'mon now, red. And Shug Jordan would run better than Bear Bryant in Tuscaloosa County?

With Obama as the nominee, some of the lighter blue states and lighter red states will be in play. He has a very good chance at winning Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa, but will stand absolutely no chance in West Virginia, Arkansas, and McCain's home state of Arizona. He'll face an uphill battle in Virgina, but can pull it out with a strong turnout in Fairfax/Arlington/Newport News. Vet Jim Webb would be a huge asset as a running mate.

He'll increase on some of Kerry's momentum in the interior west and possibly even take a Libertarian bent Montana. He's got to do as good as Kerry did in New England. This will be tougher because we're not facing an ignorant cowboy, but rather a man who is respected by all and seen (although without merit) as a centrist. New Hampshire and Maine are must wins and he's got to break this thing open in reliable Massachusetts and New Jersey.

I agree that these early polls are not necessarily foreshadowing of November, but have to point out how fast the rabid Republican states gravitated toward a man they've doubted for years. I'm looking at you, Alabama.

Impressive post. Agree on all points.

so did this poll ask people in all states, meaning states that have already had their primary? or was this poll conducted in states that haven't had their primary?

granted i clicked on the links, but only glanced at the info. from what i did see, it didn't give any indication on who they asked.

It was a National poll by Gallup...I assume a random sampling of the country?

[RunInRed 18,320]

The country always shifts to the right in October, barring a true moderate Democrat. I like Obama, but there's nothing moderate about him--no matter how much he talks the talk.

At this point, barring a major gaffe on his part, it will be McCain's election to lose. Obama is just 2008's version of Dukakis and Mondale. When will the Democratic Party learn?

I would take that bet

[Auburn85 436]

if obama or hillary isn't elected in november, what does that say to the democratic party? as much that is going against republicans right now, mccain is by far, not the favorite. i still look for a democrat to win in november, and republicans will try and make a comeback in 2012.

i think james carville said it best: (paraphrasing) "if democrats don't win the presidency this time, we might as well fold the tent and sell insurance"

[WinCrimson 61]

I agree that these early polls are not necessarily foreshadowing of November, but have to point out how fast the rabid Republican states gravitated toward a man they've doubted for years. I'm looking at you, Alabama.

Because the alternatives aren't two they've questioned...but rather one they loathe in Hillary, and one who's policies are on the extreme end of the opposite spectrum in Obama.

Republicans would vote for a moderate over a socialist all day long.

I'll have to disagree on the voters from the party that is loyal to a fault. You might not be in this classification, 'Grad, but I can't see a more moderate candidate such as Evan Bayh or Bob Graham ever making noise in this state, either. They're are too many people who refuse to vote for the candidate with a "D" by his or her name.

And it certainly doesn't help that he's a liberal, black Yankee with the middle name of Hussein.

The country always shifts to the right in October, barring a true moderate Democrat.

That's not necessarily true. Kerry wouldn't have had a prayer if the election had been held on Labor Day. His schooling of Bush in the debates is what brought him back into contention.

The map of October 2004 national polls actually shows Kerry leading on the last day of the month.

[RunInRed 18,320]

Interesting thought...

How do you think Obama will matchup against McCain in the debates?

[WinCrimson 61]

McCain may want to take an Adderall or six to avoid being the next Fred Thompson. He'll be going up against JFK II and while he will likely want to appear wise and grandfatherly, he can't afford to look tired and fraile. Thompson looked like a ghoul from day one and his campaign never got off the ground because of it.

He'll be a huge step up from the incoherent babbling Bush performed in 2004. McCain's a very legit candidate and has several favorable talking points that all Americans are going to like. Look for a reverse of the last campaign, with the Democrat doing much better in the town hall forum and the Republican being a big improvement over his predecessor when it comes to standing behind a podium. I think Obama has come off very well, regardless of issue stances, in the round table debates with Clinton and should really push for that form at least once.

The reactions all depend on the mood of the country at the time. Do we want the common man or mythic leader? And I almost think it's tough to decipher which candidate is either one. Both display aspects of both roles.

[otterinbham 0]

I agree that these early polls are not necessarily foreshadowing of November, but have to point out how fast the rabid Republican states gravitated toward a man they've doubted for years. I'm looking at you, Alabama.

Because the alternatives aren't two they've questioned...but rather one they loathe in Hillary, and one who's policies are on the extreme end of the opposite spectrum in Obama.

Republicans would vote for a moderate over a socialist all day long.

I'll have to disagree on the voters from the party that is loyal to a fault. You might not be in this classification, 'Grad, but I can't see a more moderate candidate such as Evan Bayh or Bob Graham ever making noise in this state, either. They're are too many people who refuse to vote for the candidate with a "D" by his or her name.

And it certainly doesn't help that he's a liberal, black Yankee with the middle name of Hussein.

The country always shifts to the right in October, barring a true moderate Democrat.

That's not necessarily true. Kerry wouldn't have had a prayer if the election had been held on Labor Day. His schooling of Bush in the debates is what brought him back into contention.

The map of October 2004 national polls actually shows Kerry leading on the last day of the month.

Then the country shift back right again. See?

[WinCrimson 61]

I don't see that. They swapped leads throughout the month with Kerry ahead on 10/31.

Are you trying to say that Bush surged in the final two days of the campaign? Because he didn't necessarily do that in October.

[AUTiger1 0]

McCain may want to take an Adderall or six to avoid being the next Fred Thompson. He'll be going up against JFK II and while he will likely want to appear wise and grandfatherly, he can't afford to look tired and fraile. Thompson looked like a ghoul from day one and his campaign never got off the ground because of it.

He'll be a huge step up from the incoherent babbling Bush performed in 2004. McCain's a very legit candidate and has several favorable talking points that all Americans are going to like. Look for a reverse of the last campaign, with the Democrat doing much better in the town hall forum and the Republican being a big improvement over his predecessor when it comes to standing behind a podium. I think Obama has come off very well, regardless of issue stances, in the round table debates with Clinton and should really push for that form at least once.

The reactions all depend on the mood of the country at the time. Do we want the common man or mythic leader? And I almost think it's tough to decipher which candidate is either one. Both display aspects of both roles.

Come on guys, I know ya'll are proud of Obama and happy that he is running and all, and that is your right and I respect your right to vote for whoever you want to, even if I don't like him or agree with him, but JFK II? Obama is no where near "the Darling of the Democrats". Plus if JFK were here today and his name not Kennedy, he would be considered a moderate and no where near as far left as Obama is.

I do agree with you on Thompson. I think he spent too long trying to figure out if he was going to get in the race and then once he did he realized that it was too late. He never acted like he wanted from a week or two before Iowa until he dropped out.