Senior QBs

[mcgufcm 4,109]

So I was talking to a buddy of mine yesterday, and the topic came up that senior QBs are winners. I mentioned my theory that I'd rather have a senior QB in the SEC with above average skills than a younger QB with better skills. Then we kinda went through the history: Matt Flynn (07), Chris Leak (06), DJ Shockley (05), Jason Campbell (04), Matt Mauck (I think he was a senior 03), Rohan Davey (01). Basically the only non-seniors in this decade have been Rex Grossman (even though he was rotated with Sr. Jesse Palmer) and David Greene.

That's kinda the back drop. I think a senior QB is the best weapon you can have in the SEC. Then it dawned on us... there are three senior QBs in the SEC next year. Chris Nickson, Casey Dick (assuming he wins the job) and John Parker Wilson are the list.

Florida – Tebow Jr

Georgia – Stafford Jr

Tennessee – Crompton? Jr

Kentucky – ??

South Carolina – Smelley So

Auburn – Burns So/Todd Jr

MSU – Carroll So

Ole Miss – Snead So

LSU – Perriloux? Jr

So given that, we can eliminate one (Nickson) because Vandy has no chance. The question is: will Dick or Wilson be able to keep the streak alive? Or are we looking at the first time in five years that a non-senior QB gets it done in the SEC? I think it's clearly the latter (Arkansas is going to be a mess – no running game, marginally talented QB, suspect defense... I wouldn't be surprised if they finished in the cellar of the West; Bama is just not talented enough or deep enough to win consistently... they'll be outmanned against Clemson, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Auburn, and AT BEST level with MSU, but they have a better shot that Arkansas).

None of this means anything. I just thought it was interesting. It's the first year in a while where I wouldn't cut the list of actual title contenders down to the teams with senior QBs. Should be a crazy year in the SEC.

[BamaGrad03 0]

While I like our chances on offense with a Senior QB and a healthy Terry Grant...I think we will be so outmanned on the front 7 on D, that it's really going to prove too huge a wall for us to climb.

Our secondary is going to be very good. But at LB we are just thin and may start 2 freshmen. We have some servicable starters on the front line, but not enough behind them to rotate.

Defense is going to be bad this year.

[SKCAUB 0]

While I like our chances on offense with a Senior QB and a healthy Terry Grant...I think we will be so outmanned on the front 7 on D, that it's really going to prove too huge a wall for us to climb.

Our secondary is going to be very good. But at LB we are just thin and may start 2 freshmen. We have some servicable starters on the front line, but not enough behind them to rotate.

Defense is going to be bad this year.

BG, that sounds terrifying with as bad as the O was in your scrimmage...agree?

[BamaGrad03 0]

I don't know. I mean are we really going to use the first scrimmage of the season to determine how the team is going to be in 6 months?

[Nay4AU 2]

So I was talking to a buddy of mine yesterday, and the topic came up that senior QBs are winners. I mentioned my theory that I'd rather have a senior QB in the SEC with above average skills than a younger QB with better skills. Then we kinda went through the history: Matt Flynn (07), Chris Leak (06), DJ Shockley (05), Jason Campbell (04), Matt Mauck (I think he was a senior 03), Rohan Davey (01). Basically the only non-seniors in this decade have been Rex Grossman (even though he was rotated with Sr. Jesse Palmer) and David Greene.

That's kinda the back drop. I think a senior QB is the best weapon you can have in the SEC. Then it dawned on us... there are three senior QBs in the SEC next year. Chris Nickson, Casey Dick (assuming he wins the job) and John Parker Wilson are the list.

Florida – Tebow Jr

Georgia – Stafford Jr

Tennessee – Crompton? Jr

Kentucky – ??

South Carolina – Smelley So

Auburn – Burns So/Todd Jr

MSU – Carroll So

Ole Miss – Snead So

LSU – Perriloux? Jr

So given that, we can eliminate one (Nickson) because Vandy has no chance. The question is: will Dick or Wilson be able to keep the streak alive? Or are we looking at the first time in five years that a non-senior QB gets it done in the SEC? I think it's clearly the latter (Arkansas is going to be a mess – no running game, marginally talented QB, suspect defense... I wouldn't be surprised if they finished in the cellar of the West; Bama is just not talented enough or deep enough to win consistently... they'll be outmanned against Clemson, Georgia, Tennessee, LSU, Auburn, and AT BEST level with MSU, but they have a better shot that Arkansas).

None of this means anything. I just thought it was interesting. It's the first year in a while where I wouldn't cut the list of actual title contenders down to the teams with senior QBs. Should be a crazy year in the SEC.

Actually I think Mauk was a 4th year Jr. and decided not to return in 2004. Seems I remember he was going to take a shot at the pros and if it didn’t work out he was going to dental school or something.

[lca408 380]

I don't know. I mean are we really going to use the first scrimmage of the season to determine how the team is going to be in 6 months?

He, he.

I think we were all saying the same thing last year. I guess the circumstances are very similar on Bama's defense. Not much depth at all on the line. R. McClain is good, and Hall and Johns may contribute, but your LB core is weak, while the secondary should be decent. Roughly the same circumstances as last year, yet at times, the defense looked alright. I think $aban will put together a competitive defense this year, but it certainly won't be of the caliber to win the West for ya. It might be as good or worse than it was last year.

As far as JPW is concerned, I've always thought he had the potential to be a very good QB. Not great but good. He proved me wrong last year. He looked pretty good in some games, but looked and played like absolute crap most of the time. He just didn't improve from 06 to 07. The funny thing is that many people seemed to ignore his poor completion ratings in last spring's practice. He was 14 of 31 or something like that I think?

He might turn in a good senior performance in 08, but I doubt there's much chance of him being able to carry the team to West championship this year. Even with his limitations though, he's Bama's best option for success. They can't expect to do any better by putting McElroy or Jackson in his place.

Ryan

[mcgufcm 4,109]

You're almost never better replacing a senior with a freshman, even if the young guy is more talented than the old hat (liiiiike Tebow and Leak for instance). I'd bet a dollar to a dime that Wilson has his best year this year. I don't think that's going to be enough for Bama to legitimately compete for the West, but it won't be his fault.

His receivers are going to be worse. His running game is still suspect at best. Plus, his defense is shallow up front (at best) possibly even soft (at worst). Bama's no real threat for the West. It's another year of Auburn/LSU with a possible back door by an experienced team (usually Arkansas, this year probably MSU). That said, I bet Wilson surprises people this year. Senior QBs know how to compete even when they aren't the most talented players. I bet Vandy puts a scare into more teams than expected too.

[SouthLink02 8]

I agree that you don't need OUTSTANDING QB play to win the SEC. You just need consistent good play ALONG WITH a good defense and/or weapons around the QB

I do think that it shows that having time experience in the SEC is helpful BUT NOT mandatory when making an SECC run

IMO, the bottom line is still DEFENSE and that is the key factor for SECC teams

I am sure Stat could tear apart that theory though

I still think Rohan Davey is one of the most under-rated QB's SEC wise...I know he doesn't hold many records or have the greatest numbers starting wise but he was so darn good when he had time.

[Hoopie 6]

M Stafford really progressed at the end of last season. He is starting to control his confidence and talent enough to become a seasoned leader. He definitely has the team to win the SEC.

[AUloggerhead 2,509]

Tebow is hardly your run of the mill Jr QB. And there's been some speculation about whether Stafford jumps to the NFL after his Jr year, too. The key to winning the SEC is dependent more upon the QB's supporting cast on offense and having a lock down defense. UGA & UF are going to be fighting that battle in the East next season. I like UF's chances over UGA's based on another criterion: AU rotates off of UF's schedule. WDE

[SouthLink02 8]

I will put money down right now that Stafford does not leave

By putting money down, I will NOT actually put money down because I have none BUT it makes me sound more confident if I say it like that

[StatTiger 3,188]

I wrote this for the ITAT preseason Mag last season, covering the same topic...

Senior Leadership at Quarterback

When the 2007 season begins, Auburn quarterback, Brandon Cox will be making his senior debut for the Auburn Tigers. Having a senior quarterback at the helm has traditionally been a good omen for the Auburn Tigers. Auburn’s most recent senior quarterback, Jason Campbell, led the Tigers to an undefeated season in 2004. Prior to Campbell, Ben Leard was part of Tommy Tuberville’s first trip to the Southeastern Conference Championship in 2000. Dameyune Craig led Auburn to the 1997 SEC Championship game as a senior and Stan White was a major factor in Auburn’s 11-0-0 run in 1993.

Jeff Burger (1987) and Reggie Slack (1989) won SEC titles during their senior campaign, as did Randy Campbell in 1983. If history is to repeat itself, the 2007 Auburn Tigers should be in store for a banner year with Brandon Cox pulling the offensive trigger. Not only will Cox be a fifth-year senior, he brings plenty of experience with him, being a two-year starter entering his final season. After a rough 2006 season, when he sustained multiple injuries, Brandon Cox is truly a battle-tested veteran.

History of Auburn Senior Quarterbacks…

Since 1970, Auburn has started thirteen senior quarterbacks for the majority of the season, compiling a 116-36-2 record. This also includes four SEC Championships, two undefeated seasons and three trips the SEC Championship game. It would have been four had Auburn not been on probation in 1993. During the remaining twenty-four seasons, Auburn compiled a record of 180-96-5, which included ten seasons of five losses or more.

From 1951 through 2006, four of the six best seasons came with a senior quarterback in place. Stan White (1993) and Jason Campbell (2004) led their squads to an undefeated season. Lloyd Nix directed Auburn to a 9-0-1 season in 1958 and Randy Campbell’s execution of the wishbone in 1983 resulted in an 11-1-0 record.

Top Performances by a Senior Quarterback…

In 1971, Pat Sullivan wrapped up the Heisman trophy with his 248 yards and 4 touchdown passes against undefeated Georgia. He also passed for 281 yards and 3 touchdowns against Georgia Tech. During his senior season, Sullivan completed 56 percent of his passes for 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions against the six opponents he faced with a non-losing record.

During the 1983 season, Auburn was 8-1 against opponents with a winning record. Randy Campbell’s decision-making process in the wishbone offense was nearly flawless, which also included 3 touchdown passes against Florida State.

In 1987, Jeff Burger passed for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns against Texas. He threw for 220 yards and 1 touchdown against the Florida Gators and had 217 yards and 2 touchdown passes against the Georgia Bulldogs. Burger completed 65% of his passes against the six regular season opponents he faced with a non-losing record.

In 1989, Reggie Slack defeated Florida, Georgia and Alabama for the second year in a row. This included 274 yards passing against undefeated Alabama, which opened up the Auburn running game late in the game. Slack completed 59% of his passes for an average of 7.9 yards per pass attempt against the six opponents he faced with a winning record.

In 1993, Stan White completed 23 passes for 267 yards against the undefeated Florida Gators. It was a key moment during the season, proving Auburn could play with anyone in the country. White finished the season with a 60 percent completion rate along with a 7.6 yard per pass attempt average.

In 1995, Patrick Nix directed the most productive offense in school history based on yards gained and points scored. Nix passed for 382 yards against Ole Miss, completing 28 of 39 pass attempts. Nix was one field goal away from one of the biggest comebacks in school history, when he completed 34 passes for 387 yards against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Nix also passed for over 200 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Georgia Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide.

During the 1997 season, Dameyune Craig averaged 271 yards and 2 touchdowns against the six opponents he faced with at least 8-wins or more. Craig passed for 11 touchdowns with only 4 interceptions. Against Ole Miss, LSU, Florida, Georgia and Tennessee, Craig attempted 161 passes but threw only 1 interception. Simply put, Dameyune Craig was the difference between Auburn going 10-3 in 1997 and 3-8 in 1998.

Unfortunately for Ben Leard, he sustained several injuries during his senior season, which occurred between the Northern Illinois and Vanderbilt games. Through the first five games of the 2000 season, Leard had completed 62 percent of his passes for 8 touchdowns and only one interception. Despite battling injuries to his hip and shoulder, Leard managed to pass for 2 touchdown passes against LSU and Georgia. Auburn made it to the SEC Championship that season and went toe to toe with Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. Leard passed for 394 yards and 3 touchdowns in his final game as an Auburn Tiger.

Jason Campbell compiled the most productive senior season in school history. Campbell was one of the primary reasons Auburn was able to go 13-0 in 2004. He was the best quarterback in the conference that season and the third best in the nation. In the six games he attempted at least 20 passes, Campbell averaged over 240 yards passing. In the six games he competed against an opponent with a non-losing record, Campbell completed 72 percent of his passes for an astounding 9.5 yards per pass attempt. As a senior, Jason Campbell was the SEC Player of the Year and the SEC Championship game most valuable player.

Around the Southeastern Conference…

Comparing Auburn to the other eleven members of the Southeastern Conference over the last 25 years, the Tigers have been more successful with a senior at quarterback than any other program. From 1982-2006, Auburn is the only SEC program to win more than 80 percent of its games (.818) with a senior at quarterback. The Tigers were followed by Florida (.739), Georgia (.720), Tennessee (.718) and Alabama (.709).

In terms of improvement, Auburn topped the list again by having the highest difference in win percentage with a senior quarterback than without.

School ………. Senior … Non-Senior

Auburn ………. (.818) …… (.662)

Vanderbilt …… (.385 ) …... (.256)

Ole Miss …….. (.604) …… (.502)

Alabama …….. (.709) …… (.614)

Kentucky ……. (.469) …… (.377)

Miss State …… (.482) …… (.417)

Arkansas …….. (.583) …… (.531)

The remaining five members of the SEC actually had a lower win percentage with a senior quarterback than with a non-senior quarterback. Over the last 25 seasons, here is the top ten win percentages posted by a senior quarterback.

2004 Jason Campbell (Aub) ….... 13-0-0 (1.000)

1993 Stan White (Aub) ……...…. 11-0-0 (1.000)

2006 Chris Leak (UF) ………..… 13-1-0 (.929)

1994 Jay Barker (Ala) …….….… 12-1-0 (.923)

1996 Danny Wuerffel (UF) ….… 12-1-0 (.923)

1983 Randy Campbell (Aub) ….. 11-1-0 (.917)

1983 John Lastinger (UGA) …… 10-1-1 (.875)

1997 Peyton Manning (UT) …… 11-2-0 (.846)

1989 Reggie Slack (Aub) ……… 10-2-0 (.833)

1997 Mike Bobo (UGA) ………. 10-2-0 (.833)

2004 David Greene (UGA) ……. 10-2-0 (.833)

2005 Brodie Croyle (Ala) ……… 10-2-0 (.833)

Brandon Cox…

Entering his senior season, Brandon Cox has a great opportunity to leave his mark in the Auburn record books but his senior campaign will also decide if he will be regarded as one of the legendary quarterbacks to wear the orange and blue. Compiling great numbers is one thing but legends are often remembered for individual game performances or championship seasons. Thus far, Brandon Cox has yet to accomplish either, though he has come very close.

Brandon Cox has had his moments during some memorable games but he has not carried the team on his shoulders when all else around him was down and out. There is no doubt that Cox has the physical attributes and football savvy to lead Auburn to a championship season but he only has one last opportunity to do so in 2007. With two “starting” seasons under his belt, Cox is 7-5 against opponents with a winning record. In those contests, Cox has completed 54 percent of his passes for 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He has averaged 176 yards passing per game with only four 200-yard games.

In the five games Cox started and Auburn was held to under 100 yards rushing, the Tigers are 2-3. He was limited to only 5.8 yards per pass attempt, while completing only 51 percent of his passes. In the nine games Auburn averaged 175 yards rushing or more, Cox has completed 61 percent of his passes for 8.7 yards per pass attempt. The Auburn offense has been built around the running game and Cox will be asked to compliment the offense rather than carrying it.

During his career, Brandon Cox has attempted more than 25 passes in eleven ball games. In those eleven games, Cox has averaged 224 yards passing per game, including a 57 percent completion rate. Auburn is 7-4 in those games with Cox passing for 13 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. When given the opportunity, Brandon Cox has produced on the field. Surrounding the senior quarterback with a consistent offensive line and playmakers at the “skilled” positions should pay big dividends for the Auburn Tigers in 2007.

[aucanucktiger 1,874]

Kirwin Bell is a good example of a QB that, simply by starting so many games in the SEC (the guy was a very avg QB and dumb as the day is long), could beat you by the time he was a senior.