Thinking out loud...

[StatTiger 3,188]

Urban Meyer…

It only took Urban Meyer 4 years to make Gator fans forget about Steve Spurrier and I don’t think anyone could have predicted he would have been this successful at Florida. Steve Spurrier was 39-10 during his first 4 years at Florida and Urban Meyer is now 44-9. Both coaches won two SEC titles but Meyer has won two national championships. I truly admire how Meyer has adjusted his offense to compete at the highest level in the best conference in the nation.

I realize he was probably caught up in the post game moment of their victory over Oklahoma but Meyer needs to realize you have to win all of them to be considered the best team in the history of college football.

Best Football Conference…

Since expanding to 12 teams in 1992, the SEC has captured 7 MNC’s, the most of any conference. The Big XII has captured 5 during the same time span but 2 occurred before the Big 8 expanded to the Big XII. The Big XII has been extremely productive since it’s expansion in 1996 but even from 1996-2008, the SEC has more teams (5) in the top 20 of overall win percentage during that time frame.

During this current decade, 5 SEC teams appear in the nation’s top 20 in terms of overall win percentage (Georgia, LSU, Florida, Auburn and Tennessee). Only 2 teams appear from the Big Ten, Pac 10 and Big XII. If not for the exceptional play of Southern Cal under Pete Carroll, the Pac 10 would not even be considered.

Pete Carroll…

During his eight-year run at Southern Cal, the Trojans have won 2 MNC’s and the best win percentage in the nation from 2001-2008. Even those who oppose USC because they compete in the Pac 10, must admit Carroll is one of if not the most successful coaches in big games. Looking back over 60 legendary coaches, the average win percentage against teams with a 9-3 record or better was .383. Pete Carroll and his Trojans are an impressive 18-5 (.783).

Best College Football Team…

The 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers remain the greatest team in the modern era of college football. Since 1936, only 9 Division I programs have gone undefeated during a season, where half their opponents finished the season with a winning record and ¼ of their opponents had a win percentage of 75% or better. Of those nine teams, Nebraska had the best scoring margin of 38.3. Nebraska averaged 410 yards rushing per game while allowing just 69 yards. They scored 52 points per game to 14 allowed. One of the writers for Husker Illustrated informed me that Nebraska’s starting offensive line did not allow a single sack in over 240 pass attempts and only 1 of the starting five OL, was called for a holding penalty all season. Twenty players from the 1995 NU roster were drafted in the NFL over the following three years.

Early Impact…

Recently I broke down the offensive “skill” positions (nationally) by school classification. During this current decade, four SEC quarterbacks made the Top 25 list of freshman quarterbacks. Two running backs from the SEC made the Top 25 and three receivers from the SEC made the Top 25 of their respective position. Two freshman receivers from Tulsa made the Top 25 list of receivers under Coach Gus Malzahn. Tulsa produced two 1000-yard receivers, during their freshman seasons. How many freshman receivers have made an impact at Auburn?

For the past ten seasons, Coach Tommy Tuberville often sighted the lack of experience and knowledge as the key reason whey some freshman players were not playing. Could Auburn finally be reaching the point, where a gifted freshman player can actually make an immediate impact on offense? Two years ago, I wrote an article for the ITAT preseason magazine, commenting on Auburn’s success with senior quarterbacks. The overall win percentage and conference titles, proved Auburn had more success in the SEC with a senior quarterback leading the offense.

Despite the comfort zone of knowing Auburn’s success with a senior quarterback, it also exposed Auburn’s weakness. With Auburn’s reliance on a senior quarterback to direct a successful offense, it would explain why Auburn has not won consistently during the last two decades. Though I feel it is an advantage to have an experienced quarterback directing any offense, it would be nice to see an occasional underclassman step up for the team. Hopefully under Coach Gus Malzahn, we will finally see this occurring at Auburn and not just at other SEC programs.

War Eagle

[kickerman97 3]

Great post as always Stat! WDE

[PChamp119 96]

But Urban Meyer did it with Ron Zook's players

[AUman43 5]

Great Post Stat. Houston Nutt is also doing it with Ed Orgeron's players, just as Tater Tot did it with Pat Dye's players. COuld it be that those are examples of a lack of patience? You see this quite often.

[OldNewby 27]

Brandon Cox started in 2005 as a sophomore (an older soph than normal due to health problems). It was probably his best year, record/stat-wise, but he had Devin, Ben and Courtney to throw to.

Due to his offensive philosophy, I expect Coach Malzahn to recruit QBs who can pass, run, and make good decisions.

[mcgufcm 4,109]

I haven't looked it up, but I'd be willing to bet that you see an eerily similar trend for ANY SEC school and senior QBs. All teams in this conference are reliant on experienced signal callers. Without them, you will almost always get de-railed. With them, it doesn't guarantee a title, but it keeps you alive. Just off the top of my head...

Auburn – best seasons since 1990 – 1993 (senior QB Stan White), 1994 (junior QB Pat Nix), 1997 (senior QB Dameyune Craig), 2000 (senior QB Ben Leard), 2004 (senior QB Jason Campbell), 2005/2006 (soph/junior QB Brandon Cox)

Alabama – 1991-94 (the Jay Barker era), 1999 (soph QB Andrew Zow), 2002 (senior QB Tyler Watts), 2008 (senior QB John Parker Wilson)

LSU – 1996 (soph QB Herb Tyler), 2001 (senior QB Rohan Davey), 2003 (junior QB Matt Mauck... but he was older b/c of minor league ball), 2007 (senior QB Matt Flynn)

Florida (long list so I'll be selective) – 1996 (senior QB Danny Wonderful), 2000 (soph QB Rex Grossman), 2006 (senior QB Chris Leak), 2008 (junior QB Tim Tebow)

UGA – 1997 (senior QB Mike Bobo), 2002 (soph QB David Green), 2005 (senior QB DJ Shockley), 2007 (soph QB Matt Stafford)

UT – 1997 (senior QB Peyton Manning), 1998 (junior QB Tee Martin), etc.

The point is, every team in the SEC hits its highs when it has senior signal callers. There are a few blips on the radar: Green's UGA team, Tebow's run at UF, the Jay Barker era, etc. But those are usually either extremely unique talents (Peyton Manning, Wuerffel, Tim Tebow), exceedingly talented teams (Barker's 92 team, Cox's 2005 run, Tee Martin's title), or just strangely charmed seasons (Green's 02 run, Zow's SEC championship). Those three circumstances are the exception. Not the rule. Usually you have to wait, even for the fantastically talented players. Wait till Campbell is a senior. Wait till Eli is a senior. Wait for Leak. Wait for Shockley. And you enjoy raking in the wins with a seasoned guy even if he's not that talented (Wilson, Mauck, Flynn, etc.)

Auburn's dependence on senior QBs is neither bad nor abnormal. It just means we're exactly like the rest of the conference.

[StatTiger 3,188]

I haven't looked it up, but I'd be willing to bet that you see an eerily similar trend for ANY SEC school and senior QBs. All teams in this conference are reliant on experienced signal callers. Without them, you will almost always get de-railed. With them, it doesn't guarantee a title, but it keeps you alive. Just off the top of my head...

Auburn – best seasons since 1990 – 1993 (senior QB Stan White), 1994 (junior QB Pat Nix), 1997 (senior QB Dameyune Craig), 2000 (senior QB Ben Leard), 2004 (senior QB Jason Campbell), 2005/2006 (soph/junior QB Brandon Cox)

Alabama – 1991-94 (the Jay Barker era), 1999 (soph QB Andrew Zow), 2002 (senior QB Tyler Watts), 2008 (senior QB John Parker Wilson)

LSU – 1996 (soph QB Herb Tyler), 2001 (senior QB Rohan Davey), 2003 (junior QB Matt Mauck... but he was older b/c of minor league ball), 2007 (senior QB Matt Flynn)

Florida (long list so I'll be selective) – 1996 (senior QB Danny Wonderful), 2000 (soph QB Rex Grossman), 2006 (senior QB Chris Leak), 2008 (junior QB Tim Tebow)

UGA – 1997 (senior QB Mike Bobo), 2002 (soph QB David Green), 2005 (senior QB DJ Shockley), 2007 (soph QB Matt Stafford)

UT – 1997 (senior QB Peyton Manning), 1998 (junior QB Tee Martin), etc.

The point is, every team in the SEC hits its highs when it has senior signal callers. There are a few blips on the radar: Green's UGA team, Tebow's run at UF, the Jay Barker era, etc. But those are usually either extremely unique talents (Peyton Manning, Wuerffel, Tim Tebow), exceedingly talented teams (Barker's 92 team, Cox's 2005 run, Tee Martin's title), or just strangely charmed seasons (Green's 02 run, Zow's SEC championship). Those three circumstances are the exception. Not the rule. Usually you have to wait, even for the fantastically talented players. Wait till Campbell is a senior. Wait till Eli is a senior. Wait for Leak. Wait for Shockley. And you enjoy raking in the wins with a seasoned guy even if he's not that talented (Wilson, Mauck, Flynn, etc.)

Auburn's dependence on senior QBs is neither bad nor abnormal. It just means we're exactly like the rest of the conference.

Your comments about seniors QB's is valid and I'm well aware of the success of senior SEC QB's from the article I did prior to the 2006 season for ITAT. My point is that we have failed to have younger plays from the skill positions (not just QB) to make an impact on offense in the last ten years other than the RB position. 303 Fr and So QB's made the final listing of the NCAA QB rankings this decade. Sorting the top 15% of that group, 8 SEC QB's made the top 45 list and none of them were from Auburn. Brandon Cox was 95th on the list from 2005 and Jason Campbell failed to make the list of 303 QB's in 2002 because he did not have enough pass attempts.

One of the reasons why Ole Miss was successful this season was then performance of Jevan Snead, who passed for over 2700-yards and 26 TD's as a soph. Eli Manning passed for 2900 yards and 31 TD's as a Soph in 2003. Obviously part of the reason for AU's lack of success at the QB position has been the lack of talent but IMO, it had more to do with coaching. Jason Campbell was a 5-star QB coming out of HS but did not have a major impact season until his senior year. Brandon Cox had his best season during his first year as the starter and went down hill from there. There is no telling what Campbell and Cox could have accomplished had they both had consistent coaching their entire careers at Auburn.

Again, I'm not just speaking of the QB situation. During this decade, 211 Fr & So receivers made the NCAA's list of leading receivers. Of those 211, 19 came from the SEC. Auburn and Miss State were the only 2 schools that failed to place a receiver on that list of 211. Even Vanderbilt made the list 3 times with 2 different receivers. Looking back at some of our talent, Obomanu, Taylor, Aromashodu, Mix, McIntyre and Carter all made it to the NFL either by draft or free agency. Clearly these players had enough talent for a NFL team to give them a shot yet Courtney Taylor was the closest AU had as an early impact player with 33 receptions in 2004. The other receivers failed to catch 20 passes during a season until they were Jr or Sr's.

My point is that with the ability to prepare underclassman for extensive playing time, out offense will be more consistent year to year.

[rtftiger 40]

So, this is StatTiger just "thinking out loud." His belches are more intelligent than my dissertation.