Hold the Presses!

[autigeremt 7,537]

U.S. retail sales jumped 1 percent in January, reversing a six-month declining trend and defying economists' expectations by posting the biggest increase in 14 months.

The Commerce Department says January retail sales rose a percent from December after having fallen for six straight months. Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected January sales to show a drop of 0.8 percent. They plunged 2.7 percent in December, which had the weakest holiday selling season since at least 1969.

The January report shows strong increases in sales of automobiles and in general merchandise stores -- the "big box" outlets -- though sales by department stores, carrying fewer varieties of items, posted a decline.

[bigsixfive 341]

Hold the presses and stop the stimulus bill!

[Tigermike 4,240]

How does one demonstrate that if left alone, the economy will recover from a recession without government intervention?

Charts like this help.

As Nick Gillespie says, if the chart is true, we must be beginning the recovery. Of course the larger point is, economies do recover without intervention and, in many cases, intervention comes as too late.

What it does, however, is give politicians a means of claiming credit for something that was already underway. And, as is obvious, putting you in debt up to your ears is fine with them if it buys them another 2, 4 or 6 years.

Now that the stimulus package is about to become law (likely signed by Barack Obama on President's Day next Monday no less!), here's something to keep in mind. And on file.

And if this chart is correct, then break out the champagne, because happys days are here again!

http://www.reason.com/blog/show/131636.html

The history of anti-recession efforts is that they are almost always initiated too late to do any good. This chart, based on recession timelines from the National Bureau of Economic Research, shows the enactment of stimulus plans is a fairly accurate indicator that we have hit the bottom of the business cycle, meaning the economy will improve even if the government does nothing. — Bruce Bartlett, author of “Impostor: How George W. Bush Bankrupted America and Betrayed the Reagan Legacy.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/23/opinion/...tlett.html?_r=1

[Auburn85 438]

while this is good news, it's hard to say if this will be a continuing trend or just a temporary rise. i'd expect a similar rise because more people will be getting their tax refunds. just wonder if people will save more of the return or spend more of the return.

sure, the wal-marts of the world will hold out ok. plus, alot of places still are having deep discount sales.

layoffs are still imminent in several places.

alot of state and local governments are considering a cut in hours for employees.

continue to save americans. the medicine may not taste good, but you need to take it to get well.

[TigerHeat 9]

while this is good news, it's hard to say if this will be a continuing trend or just a temporary rise. i'd expect a similar rise because more people will be getting their tax refunds. just wonder if people will save more of the return or spend more of the return.

sure, the wal-marts of the world will hold out ok. plus, alot of places still are having deep discount sales.

layoffs are still imminent in several places.

alot of state and local governments are considering a cut in hours for employees.

continue to save americans. the medicine may not taste good, but you need to take it to get well.

don't save me. oh, and that "medicine" you recommend is probably hemlock. Geithner said very clearly we may need an additional bailout down the road, and Biden stated this "medicine" only has a 70% chance of success.

[Auburn85 438]

i should have corrected my grammar right away. my last sentence is off base.

meant to imply that americans need to continue saving. my bad

[autigeremt 7,537]

Very true, 85! It's called the reset button for a reason. We need to realize that you can't spend your way to happiness.

[rexbo 104]

With Obama's THE SKY IS FALLING WE ARE ABOUT TO HAVE AN ECONOMIC CATASTROPHE rhetoric this past month, there's little chance consumer spending is going to continue going up. His words are a self-fulfilling prophecy. He has to be one of the most irresponsible Presidents the country has ever seen in the first month of office. Of course, he wouldn't dare want to see any signs of recovery before his socialist programs kick in...