Two stats to watch for in 2009

[StatTiger 3,188]

From 1962-2008, Auburn has attempted at least 20 passes during a game in 60.8% of its games. When Auburn completes at least 60% of those 20 pass attempts for at least 7.5 yards per attempt, they are 71-7-0.

Former Auburn offensive coordinator, Tony Franklin once commented on his goals for Auburn’s passing game, stressing the importance of completing 60-65% of their passes for at least 7 yards per attempt. Last season, Auburn reached the 60% and 7.5-yard mark in only one game (Southern Miss).

In the 337 games, Auburn has attempted at least 20 passes from 1962-2008, the Tigers have only been able to reach the desired completion percentage and pass attempt yardage in 78 games or 23.1% of the time. Though the statistical goal produces great results (91% win pct), it hasn’t been easily attainable. This is the vital area of the Auburn passing game, Coach Gus Malzahn must improve.

During a recent feature by Stephen Atkinson (ITAT) on Auburn quarterbacks, Coach Malzahn discussed the role of the quarterback in his offense.

“With what we do, we’re a quarterback-oriented system,” Malzahn explains. “I think that you’ve got to have a guy. You’ve got to have a guy and he’s going to be that leader.”

Coach Malzahn stressed the importance of finding “one” quarterback to run the base offense with an occasional change for the Wildcat formation. Malzahn’s Tulsa pass-offense in 2008 completed 64% of its passes for an average of 9.9 yards per attempt. During the 2007 season, the Golden Hurricane completed 60% of its passes for 9.2 yards per attempt. At Arkansas, the Razorback pass offense struggled in 2006, completing only 51% of its passes for 6.9 yards per attempt. The Razorbacks did connect on 23 TD passes.

There is no doubt Coach Malzahn can make it happen but the key will be how often the Auburn passing game can reach the two passing goals. His pass offense did it 4 of 14 times at Arkansas and 17 of 31 times at Tulsa for a combined percentage of 50%. During this current decade, the average completion percentage in major college football is 57.1% for 7.01 yards per attempt. Of the 1054 schools ranked from 2000-2008, 272 managed to complete at least 60% of its passes during the course of an entire season and 322 managed to average at least 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Only 163 of the 1054 teams managed to accomplish both goals during the same season for a combined win percentage of 72%.

Bringing back the vertical passing game will be a great step in the right direction for the Auburn passing game. From 2001-2004, Auburn averaged a pass play of at least 30-yards in 1 of every 15.6 attempts. From 2005-2008, that ratio dropped to 1 every 28.7 attempts. From 2001-2004, Auburn completed 62.1% of its passes for 8.32 yards per attempt. From 2005-2008, Auburn completed 57.2% of its passes for only 6.93 yards per attempt. Auburn went from 7.96 yards per attempt in 2006 to 6.51 yards in 2007 and 5.82 yards per attempt in 2008. Except for the 1992 season, you would have to go back to 1975 to see a lower pass per attempt average in the Auburn passing game.

[eibua12 81]

Great stats as usual, Quick Question: Of the 163 teams that accomplished the stat goal how many averaged 100 yards on the ground and what was the win percentage and/or the average total yards on the ground.

[AUman43 5]

I think I read on Phillip Marchall's section where someone said not to count out Neil Caudle as our QB next year. It should be a good race between him, Burns and Trotter.

[OldNewby 27]

Third stat to watch for in 2009: StatTiger.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Great stats as usual, Quick Question: Of the 163 teams that accomplished the stat goal how many averaged 100 yards on the ground and what was the win percentage and/or the average total yards on the ground.

60% pass completion and 7.5 yards per pass attempt along with...

100-yards rushing: .727 win pct (154 teams)

120-yards rushing: .733 win pct (143 teams)

140-yards rushing: .747 win pct (122 teams)

150-yards rushing: .762 win pct (99 teams)

170-yards rushing: .774 win pct (63 teams)

[eibua12 81]

Great stats as usual, Quick Question: Of the 163 teams that accomplished the stat goal how many averaged 100 yards on the ground and what was the win percentage and/or the average total yards on the ground.

60% pass completion and 7.5 yards per pass attempt along with...

100-yards rushing: .727 win pct (154 teams)

120-yards rushing: .733 win pct (143 teams)

140-yards rushing: .747 win pct (122 teams)

150-yards rushing: .762 win pct (99 teams)

170-yards rushing: .774 win pct (63 teams)

Statistically what I expected (although I would have expect a bit of a jump with the 100 yards. Also shows that the pass can open up the run or that they are ahead and run the ball to run out the clock.

Without know the YPC for the run it appears that there is about a 2:1 split for yard to pass to be successful.

Thanks

[StatTiger 3,188]

Statistically what I expected (although I would have expect a bit of a jump with the 100 yards. Also shows that the pass can open up the run or that they are ahead and run the ball to run out the clock.

Without know the YPC for the run it appears that there is about a 2:1 split for yard to pass to be successful.

Thanks

If you add defense to the mix, you can have a successful formula for success.

There have been 28 teams this decade that have met the passing criteria of 60% and 7.5 yards per attempt along with 140-yards rushing per game, that also held their opponent to under 300-yards per game. The combined record of those 28 teams was 310-57-0 (.845). The 2003, 2004 and 2006 Auburn Tigers made the list of 28 teams.

The 2003 AU pass offense finished the season with only 10 TD's and 9 interceptions. If you weed out the pass offenses that did not have at least a 2:1 TD to INT ratio, you're left with 22 teams this decade with a combined record of 256-31-0 (.892).

[WarTim 3,565]

"Chris Todd for Clipboard Holder!"