Run Distribution

[StatTiger 3,188]

With the early departure of Cameron Newton, Auburn’s running game will have a totally different look in 2011, similar to the 2009 but likely somewhere in between 2009 and 2010. Because Barrett Trotter is far more mobile than Chris Todd, the zone-read play is still a viable option in 2011.

Distribution of carries…

2009:

Ben Tate …………...…… 47.8 percent

Onterio McCalebb .…… 19.2 percent

Kodi Burns …………....… 10.2 percent

Mario Fannin ………...…. 6.2 percent

2010:

Cameron Newton …….… 40.5 percent

Michael Dyer ………….... 27.9 percent

Onterio McCalebb …….. 14.6 percent

Mario Fannin ………...….. 9.3 percent

Logic would dictate, Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb picking up the payload vacated by Cameron Newton. Michael Dyer will likely be in the 40-45 percent range in terms of carries and McCalebb will likely be in the 20-25 percent range. Don’t forget that McCalebb missed playing time in 2009 because of injury or he would have totaled more than 105 carries. That leaves somewhere between 30-40 percent to be distributed elsewhere in the running game.

Kodi Burns went from 56 carries in 2009 to only 6 in 2010, mainly because Cameron Newton often operated the “Wildcat” set. With players like Trovon Reed, Travante Stallworth and possibly C.J. Uzomah, Auburn will likely have another role player at quarterback in the wildcat set. Coach Gus Malzahn also has the option of allowing Barrett Trotter to operate the wildcat offense. Chris Todd operated out of the wildcat set (unbalanced line) numerous times in 2009 but always threw the football or gave on the speed-sweep. Trotter won’t be the explosive runner Newton was but he is certainly capable of moving the sticks.

If Barrett Trotter is named the starter for 2011, keep in mind he had 5 rush attempts from 7 offensive possessions. At this ratio, he would average 8.6 rush attempts per game and 102.8 attempts over the course of a 12-game season, excluding sacks. I would expect Barrett to have 300-450 yards rushing for the season, including sacks. During the championship run, Auburn ran the ball 69 percent of the time and 60 percent of the time during 2009. This worked out to 42.3 rush attempts per game in 2009 and 46.6 attempts during 2010. Though I expect Auburn to throw more often in 2011, I still believe Auburn will average 40-45 rush attempts per game.

If the combination of Dyer & McCalebb account for 65 percent of the rush attempts, Trotter accounts for 10-15 percent and the wildcat QB accounts for 5-10 percent, that will leave 10-20 percent of the carries for other contributors. This is why signing a true threat at running back in 2011 is so important. There is the possibility of someone like Anthony Morgan being moved to running back and Auburn can give Quan Bray and Brent Calloway a strong look if needed. Regardless who the No. 3 might be, Auburn will need a solid No. 3 back for mop up duty and in the event of injuries to No. 1 or No. 2. Signing a back for the future isn’t a dire necessity but it should be a priority closing out this recruiting class.

If they both can remain healthy, I would expect Dyer to be a 1200-1400 yard rusher in 2011 and McCalebb to be an 800-900 yard rusher. I do expect their average per rush to drop with the loss of Newton but the selection at wildcat quarterback could become very interesting in 2011. If Malzahn elects to go with Uzomah, he would give Auburn the big power-quarterback Auburn became accustomed to in 2010 in short-yardage situations. It would also be beneficial for the No. 3 RB to be able to consistently run between the tackles. Onterio McCalebb could move into the 180-185 pound range before the 2011 begins, which could elevate his role in Auburn's running game.

[rebdawg 5]

Ladarious Phillips maybe the answer in short yardage - that's a big boy.

[Duder 241]

On the subject of the wildcat--it will be interesting to see if Uzomah or Frazier get more looks. I assume the other would redshirt?

[Duder 241]

Ladarious Phillips maybe the answer in short yardage - that's a big boy.

I doubt Ladarious stays in the backfield next year. I figure we will see him moved to the d-line.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Ladarious Phillips maybe the answer in short yardage - that's a big boy.

As thin as Auburn is at DT, the Tigers need Phillips to excel at DT more than a situational player at RB.

[Justin5 20]

Very surprising to me that Fannin's % went up from 2009 to 2010.