StatTiger

Last 4 recruiting classes: Auburn ......... 92 of 94 recruits rated as 3-stars or better (97.9%) Clemson ....... 80 of 86 recruits rated as 3-stars or better (93.0%) Auburn .......... 54 of 94 recruits rated as 4-stars or better (57.4%) Clemson ........ 40 of 86 recruits rated as 4-stars or better (46.5%) Auburn .......... signed 13 players rated in Scout's top-100 the last 4 years. Clemson ........ signed 11 players rated in Scout's top-100 players. Experience: Auburn has a very slight edge in terms of players with 20 games of experience and 30 games of experience. Phil Steel has Auburn ranked No. 94 in terms of experienced roster and Clemson is No. 101. I believe Auburn has a slight edge in the trenches but Clemson has a huge edge in QB with their combination of talent and proven experience. Auburn has no clue what Sean White's ceiling will be at this point. Special teams could be a major plus for the Auburn Tigers. Over and under has been set at 61.5 points I believe.

During the 1980's, offenses in the SEC averaged 355.3 yards per game. From 2010-2015, offenses in the SEC have averaged 402.4 yards per game. The days of holding opponents to under 300-yards and under 20 PPG are very rare. The current statistical goal on defense is holding opponents to under 340-yards and under 25 PPG is a more realistic goal. With this in mind, here is the frequency of teams in the SEC holding their opponent to under 340-yards and under 25 PPG during the same game (2010-2015). Teams Gms T-Gms Pct W L Pct W L Pct Alabama 63 82 76.8% 61 2 0.968 72 10 0.878 LSU 46 78 59.0% 42 4 0.913 61 17 0.782 Florida 44 77 57.1% 35 9 0.795 47 30 0.610 Georgia 39 80 48.8% 36 3 0.923 56 24 0.700 Missouri 24 53 45.3% 18 6 0.750 51 27 0.654 South Carolina 33 78 42.3% 30 3 0.909 52 26 0.667 Arkansas 30 76 39.5% 27 3 0.900 43 33 0.566 Vanderbilt 26 75 34.7% 21 5 0.808 33 42 0.440 Ole Miss 25 76 32.9% 22 3 0.880 40 36 0.526 Miss State 25 78 32.1% 22 3 0.880 50 28 0.641 Tennessee 22 76 28.9% 18 4 0.818 37 38 0.493 Kentucky 21 73 28.8% 14 7 0.667 25 48 0.342 Auburn 22 79 27.8% 20 2 0.909 52 27 0.658 Texas A&M 14 52 26.9% 11 3 0.786 52 26 0.667 Alabama is clearly No. 1, reaching this goal nearly 77% of the time. It certainly takes the pressure off their offense. Alabama is 61-2, when they reach the defensive goal of under 340-25. Though Florida is No. 3 in the SEC, their win percentage of .795 when doing so is indicative of how poorly they have performed on offense. The average win pct in the SEC is .869, when holding the opponent to under 340-25. From 2010-2015, teams in the SEC have reached the 340-25 goal 42% of the time, with Auburn next to last at 27.8%. If Auburn can improve to the 40% range, it will make a huge difference in Auburn's win percentage, especially if Gus has his offense rolling again. From 1990-2008, Auburn compiled a record of 65-1 (.985) in games they had 400-yds and at least 30-pts during regulation. From 2009-2015, Auburn is 38-5 (.884) in 400-30 games.

Here is a breakdown of pass-offenses in the SEC by decade: Decade Att/Gm QBR Pct YPA INT-R TD-R YPG 1960-1969 19.3 101.2 49.1 6.21 15.1 25.0 120.0 1970-1979 18.1 104.9 47.9 6.61 15.9 23.3 119.7 1980-1989 24.8 116.2 54.1 6.93 21.5 25.1 171.8 1990-1999 28.8 122.9 55.1 7.13 26.3 21.1 205.2 2000-2009 29.7 126.7 56.7 7.12 30.2 19.7 211.6 2010-2015 29.5 136.4 59.9 7.60 34.4 17.8 223.9 The 60's and 70's was dominated by strong run offenses and passing when you had to pass. The 1980's brought out more balance in the offenses. LSU and Tennessee led the way with six top-3 pass-efficiency offenses (each) during the decade of the 80's. Steve Spurrier's arrival at Florida during the 1990's really turned the conference around in terms of having to compete with his pass-offense. It changed how the other teams in the conference had to recruit to compete with Florida's offense as well as scheming to compete against the Fun & Gun. The top-3 teams in the conference with top-3 pass-efficiency offenses during the 90's were Florida (8), Tennessee (8) and Georgia (5). The Volunteers and Bulldogs had to compete with the Gator's Fun & Gun offense on a yearly basis while competing in the East Division. The 1990's brought about the first decade, where there were more TD passes completed than interceptions conference wide. Not only were teams throwing more often, they were becoming more efficient doing so. During the 1980's, 23% of the teams in the SEC had an efficiency rating of 130 or better. During the 90's, it increased to 32%. During the following decade (2000-2009), we see the continued increase in pass-efficiency with nearly 43% of the teams in the SEC having a pass-efficiency rating of 130 or better during the course of a season. Florida had the most top-3 finishes in efficiency with 7. Auburn, Georgia, LSU and Tennessee were tied for second with 4 appearances each. Note the interception ratio of 1 every 30.2 pass attempts during this decade, compared to the 1 every 15.1 attempts during the decade of the 60's. Six years into this current decade (2010-2015), we have seen the rise of more spread-oriented offenses across the country and in the SEC. This has brought about the best of both worlds in terms of offensive balance, which has placed more pressure on defenses. Alabama currently leads the conference in the most top-3 pass-efficiency finishes with 4. Arkansas and Georgia are tied in second place with three top-3 appearances this current decade. Once again, pass-efficiency continues to increase with 57.5% of the teams finishing with a 130 rating or better this decade. I mentioned the rebirth of the running game. During the decade (2000-2009), only 12.5% of the teams in the SEC finished the season averaging at least 200-yards rushing per game. During this current decade (2010-2015), it has increased to 25.0%. Pass offenses continue to improve along with an increase in the running game. Thoughts?

Would have been minus the dropped passes.

JSU, SJS, UK, TAMU and Idaho

During the past 30 seasons (1986-2015), Auburn is 166-16-1 in games the Tigers had a pass-rating of at least 130. Here is the frequency Auburn reached the goal of 130 QBR: Rnk Year 130-Gm T-Gms Pct W L T 1 2010 13 14 92.9% 13 0 0 2 2004 11 13 84.6% 11 0 0 3 2014 10 13 76.9% 7 3 0 4 2005 9 12 75.0% 9 0 0 5 2013 10 14 71.4% 9 1 0 6 1987 8 12 66.7% 7 0 1 7 2002 8 13 61.5% 6 2 0 8 1995 7 12 58.3% 6 1 0 9 1996 7 12 58.3% 6 1 0 10 1997 7 13 53.8% 7 0 0 11 2006 7 13 53.8% 7 0 0 12 1988 6 12 50.0% 6 0 0 13 1989 6 12 50.0% 6 0 0 14 2000 6 13 46.2% 5 1 0 15 2003 6 13 46.2% 5 1 0 16 2007 6 13 46.2% 5 1 0 17 2009 6 13 46.2% 5 1 0 18 1993 5 11 45.5% 5 0 0 19 1994 5 11 45.5% 5 0 0 20 1999 5 11 45.5% 4 1 0 21 1986 5 12 41.7% 5 0 0 22 2001 5 12 41.7% 4 1 0 23 2011 5 13 38.5% 5 0 0 24 2015 5 13 38.5% 5 0 0 25 1990 4 12 33.3% 4 0 0 26 2012 4 12 33.3% 3 1 0 27 1998 3 11 27.3% 2 1 0 28 1991 2 11 18.2% 2 0 0 29 1992 2 11 18.2% 2 0 0 30 2008 0 12 0.0% 0 0 0 It happened nearly 50% of the time over the past 30 years with an impressive win percentage of 91 percent. From 2004-2015, Auburn has reached the 130 rating in 55% of their games for a win percentage of 92 percent.

Play calling was the primary issue but based on QB and WR play. Gus intended on opening up the pass-offense to start the 2015 season with plenty of trust in what they believed JJ was capable of as a rising junior in the offense. Here are some numbers to consider... 2013, Auburn targeted 30.5% of their passes beyond 10-yds of the LOS during Nick Marshall's first 2 starts. During his last 11 starts, 40.4% of his pass attempts were beyond 10-yds of the LOS. During his last 4 starts of the 2013 season, 47.5% of his pass attempts were beyond 10-yds of the LOS. 2015, 39.6% of JJ's pass attempts were beyond 10-yds of the LOS during his first 2 starts. After the high number of interceptions, the play-calling was scaled back the remainder of the season with JJ in at QB. For the remainder of the season, 29.4% of his pass attempts were beyond 10-yds of the LOS. Once JJ was benched, Sean White was slowly worked into the offense. During his first 2 starts, 26.3% of his pass attempts were beyond 10-yds of the LOS. During his remaining starts, it increased to 42.3%. Once SW went down with his injuries, JJ returned as the starter but the pass-offense was extremely conservative. During JJ's last 5 games, nearly 55% of his pass attempts were within 5-yards of the LOS. During SW's last 5 games at QB, 36.5% of his pass attempts were within 5-yards of the LOS. It was clear Auburn's coaches felt more comfortable with SW at QB during the 2015 season.

Here are some high and lows from the 2015 season, which might be bullet points to monitor in 2016. Also included are a few statistical goals for success from 2009-2015. Jeremy Johnson was the nation's 18th most efficient passer once inside the opponent's red zone last season with a QB rating of 220.4. This was No. 1 in the Southeastern Conference. Johnson was 16 of 23 in passing for 7 touchdowns and no interceptions. On the flip side, Sean White was one of the worst, compiling a rating of only 34.8 from his 13 pass attempts inside the red zone. Outside the red zone, Sean White proved to be the more efficient passer with a rating of 130.0 to Jeremy Johnson's 113.3 rating outside the red zone. Over the past 30 years, nearly 1/3 of Auburn's offensive touchdowns came from outside the red zone. Last season only 17.9% came from outside the red zone, which was second to last (2007) during the past three decades of Auburn football. One of the reasons for Auburn's lack of scoring outside the red zone was the inability to generate big plays. Auburn dropped from No. 18 in 2014 to No. 93 in 2015, when it came to producing plays of 30-yards or more. On the flip side of big plays, Auburn's defense improved from No. 60 during 2014 to No. 5 nationally in allowing plays of 30-yards or more. Auburn actually improved upon their yards per rush inside the red zone in 2015. Auburn was No. 71 during 2014, improving to No. 43 in 2015. Auburn was No. 1 nationally during 2013 and No. 26 during 2010. From 2009-2015, Auburn compiled a 35-8 record in games they averaged more yards per play on first down than the opponent. The Tigers are 25-24 in games they lost the first down battle. Coaches always speak of winning the line of scrimmage. From 2009-2015, Auburn is 38-5 in games they do not lose the tackle for loss battle and 22-27, when they lose it. Turnovers can change the outcome of a football game in a heart beat. From 2009-2015, Auburn is 45-10 in games they did not lose the turnover battle and 14-23, when they did. From 2009-2015, Auburn is 48-4 in games they have more rushing yardage and rush attempts than the opponent. From 2009-2015, Auburn is 46-8 in games they win the 3rd down battle and 14-24 in games they don't. From 1996-2015, Auburn is 57-3 in games they did not lose the TFL, turnover or 1st down battle during the same game. The three losses were to USC 2002, UGA 2002 and Ole Miss 2003. War Eagle!

Your memory is correct. The 2007 offense was very average in terms of yards per game and points per game.

Over the past 50 years, Auburn has fielded nine (9) triplets with at least 1900-yards passing from the QB, 800-yards from the starting RB and at least 700-yards from the leading receiver. Those nine Auburn teams combined for a record of 94-19-1. Last season the pass-offense was more productive under Sean White than Jeremy Johnson. The running game was more productive under Jovon Robinson than Peyton Barber. Because of injuries, Auburn only had one opportunity to combine a healthy Sean White and Jovon Robinson. The 2015 Auburn offense never found an offensive identity, which prevented growth to live up to its full potential. 1989: Slack (1996), Joseph (817), Wright (714) 10-2-0 (369.9 YPG/23.0 PPG) 1993: White (1974), Bostic (1205), Sanders (842) 11-0-0 (420.0 YPG/32.1 PPG) 1994: Nix (2206), Davis (1263), Sanders (910) 9-1-1 (411.5 YPG/32.5 PPG) 2004: Campbell (2700), Williams (1165), Taylor (737) 13-0-0 (420.7 YPG/32.1 PPG) 2007: Cox (2080), Tate (903), Smith (705) 9-4-0 (335.2 YPG/24.2 PPG) 2009: Todd (2612), Tate (1362), Adams (997) 8-5-0 (431.8 YPG/33.3 PPG) 2010: Newton (2854), Dyer (1093), Adams (963) 14-0-0 (499.2 YPG/41.2 PPG) 2013: Marshall (1976), Mason (1816), Coates (902) 12-2-0 (501.4 YPG/39.5 PPG) 2014: Marshall (2532), Artis-Payne (1608), Williams (730) 8-5-0 (485.0 YPG/35.5 PPG) The combination of a quality defense and offense made a significant difference in winning from 1989-2007. Auburn has lacked the defensive balance from 2009-2015, which could have made a difference during seasons like 2009 and 2014, especially during the 2014 season. Auburn's average of 485-yards and 35.5 PPG during the 2014 campaign should have been enough to win at least ten games teamed with a better defense. Having the ability to build the offense around a consistent "triplet" set has proven to be a successful formula for the Auburn Tigers. There is a high probability Jovon Robinson will be Auburn's 8th consecutive so they key for 2016 will be the quarterback position and finding a "go-to" wide receiver.

Malzahn's offensive ranking in 1st down offense from 2007-2015: 2007 Tulsa: 8th 2008 Tulsa: 7th 2009 Auburn: 60th 2010 Auburn: 12th 2011 Auburn: 92nd 2012 Ark State: 21st 2013 Auburn: 11th 2014 Auburn: 41st 2015 Auburn: 101st

Marshall lives for that competitive moment on the field and court. In HS, he carried his basketball team to a championship by scoring 50 points in the championship game. He was the same way on the football field too. He was indeed calm in the pocket and his demeanor on the sideline was no different whether he threw a TD or a pick. He just wanted the next opportunity to compete if his last play was a failure. From all accounts, JFIII is very competitive by nature and is doing everything possible to be the best player he can be, Hopefully his strong work ethic will payoff on the field.

No doubt the success of the run-offense helped in 2013 but Marshall became even more efficient during 2014 despite the run offense dropping off 22% from 2013.

If JFIII can prove to be an efficient passer then I am all for him starting. Some people don't grasp the passing element Nick Marshall brought to the Auburn offense. During his first 5 starts he had a passer rating of 126.6, slightly below average. During his final 7 starts of 2013, his passer rating shot up to 159.6 during the major stretch run of the schedule. This made him the 12th most efficient passer in the country to close out the second half of the 2013 season. During Marshall's final 20 starts at Auburn, he amassed a passer rating of 156.9, which is an amazing statistical achievement. During the past ten seasons, teams in the SEC that rushed for 140-199 yards with a pass rating of at least 130, won 89% of their games.

Gus Malzahn's "pace" offense at Auburn was never designed to be like Oregon, where the pace is constant. Malzahn's pace stems from success on early downs with the goal of achieving the initial first down. Once the initial first down is obtained, Malzahn normally motions for the offense to throttle up the offense. This pace rarely came last season with nearly 60% of Auburn's offensive possessions ending with only one first down gained or less. So what were the issues that prevented pace during the 2015 season? * Auburn has won 80% of their games from 1992-2015, when averaging at least 6-yards per play on first down. Auburn's primary rusher and success on first down: 2009 Ben Tate ........................... 5.63 YPC 2010 Michael Dyer ...................... 6.15 YPC 2011 Michael Dyer ...................... 5.65 YPC 2013 Tre Mason ......................... 5.95 YPC 2014 Cameron Artis-Payne .......... 5.58 YPC 2015 Peyton Barber .................... 4.07 YPC 2015 Jovon Robinson .................. 5.70 YPC Every primary running back in Gus Malzahn's offense averaged at least 5.6 yards per rush on first down except for Peyton Barber, who averaged 4.1 yards per rush on first down. During the seven games Barber was the primary rusher, the Auburn offense averaged 4.73 yards per play on first down. During the last 6 games of the season with Robinson as the primary rusher, the Auburn offense averaged 6.14 yards per first down snap. As much as Auburn runs the ball on first down, the primary rusher must be consistent to establish "pace". Quarterback change: Jeremy Johnson's unexpected collapse to start the season was a major set back for the Auburn offense. After three games, the Auburn offense averaged only 4.78 yards per play on first down and Johnson was benched. Sean White was thrown into the fire, which meant the coaches adjusting the offensive game plan to allow White the time to grow into the starting role. Just as White was beginning to find his rhythm as the starter, he suffered a knee injury against Arkansas. He hobbled through the Ole Miss game and was finally benched due to his knee and foot injuries. This meant the return of Jeremy Johnson, who started the final 4 games of the regular season. The offense went into a more conservative approach with Johnson's return to prevent the turnovers which plagued Johnson's first 3 starts of the season. Quarterback and Running back combination: Auburn never had the opportunity to combine their best "first down" combination of QB-RB in 2015. Jovon Robinson and Sean White teamed up only once as the starters during the regular season (Ole Miss) and Sean White was nowhere close to being healthy. Despite his health issues, Auburn did average 6.8 yards per play on first down against the Rebels. During the first 3 games of the regular season, Auburn averaged 6.5 yards per pass attempt on first down with Johnson as the starting QB. During Sean White's 5 starts during the regular season, Auburn averaged 11.1 yards per pass attempt on first down. (Sean White was No. 8 nationally in producing 1st downs, throwing on first down during 2015.) When Jeremy Johnson returned to start the last 4 games of the regular season, the Tigers averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt on first down. Had Sean White and Jovon Robinson started the season and remained healthy, the 2015 Auburn offense would have likely grown into a more consistent entity, thriving from their success on first down. When Auburn does throw on first down, they must possess the ability to attack vertically for the offense to reach it's full potential. Substitution: One of the keys to running a "pace" offense is limited substitution. Having the same eleven players on the field the majority of time requires having skill players who can function in multiple roles. This was not the case in 2015, where Auburn did not have a true TE and was playing two freshman FB's. Added to the disaster was the poor performance on first down, which required more substitution to make up for the 4.7 yards averaged on first down. Auburn gained 3-yards or less, 51.2% of the time during 2015, which forced the play calling on the remaining downs to be even more accurate and efficient. The more substitution involved, the less identity the offense possessed. Auburn's lack of offensive identity limited the team's performance on first down and in the ability to generate explosive plays. How important is the passing game? During Malzahn's 10 seasons coaching offense at the collegiate level, he is 11-11 in games his offense generated at least 200-yards rushing but were held to a passer rating of less than 130. This includes a record of 9-8 while at Auburn. During games his offense was held to under 200-yards rushing but had a passer rating of at least 130, Malzahn is 24-5, including a 9-2 record while at Auburn. Combine at least 150 rushing with a passer rating of 130 or better and Malzahn is 68-8, including a 39-4 record while at Auburn.

Auburn's offense under Malzahn has reached the 150 rushing and 130 pass rating in 53.8% of their games. 1993-2008, it happened 30.2% of the time. Even if you were to look only at 1993, 1994, 1995, 2004 and 2005 (good offensive seasons), those 5 teams combined to accomplish the 150-130 goal 44.1% of the time.

Think balance in efficiency not yardage.

From 2000-2015, teams in the SEC compiled a win pct. of .942 when rushing for at least 200-yards with a passer rating of 130 or better. Texas A&M ............. 21-0 LSU ........................ 48-1 Alabama ................. 55-2 Auburn ................... 63-3 Arkansas ................ 41-3 Ole Miss ................. 31-3 Miss State .............. 34-4 Florida .................... 40-1 Tennessee .............. 32-1 Kentucky ................ 19-1 S. Carolina .............. 28-2 Georgia .................. 34-3 Missouri ................. 10-1 Vanderbilt ............... 19-3 Even if you drop the rushing goal to 150-yards or better with a 130 passer rating or better, SEC teams have won .914 of their games from 2000-2015. Auburn is 78-6 (.928) with the six losses by an average margin of 5.2 points. Even though Malzahn's offense accounted for only 6 of the 16 seasons, his offense accounted for 55% of the "150-130" games. Auburn is 42-4 (.913) with Malzahn's offense. Teamed with a better defense and the win percentage is likely hire.