JwgreDeux

A&M is up to 42 in NET now. A win vs UF could get them closer to top 30 as well.  

On 3/12/2024 at 12:36 PM, JwgreDeux said:

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Nope, they are live. 

Losses:

Neutral to Baylor (14 Net)

Road To APP St. (72) Risk of dropping to quad 2 loss if they drop out of top 75

          To Bama (8)

          To Miss St (42)

          To Florida (35)

          To UT (5)

Home To UK (19)

 

Wins that could improve to quad 1s: Road win at Ole Miss (90 needs to get to top 75), home win vs Miss State (42 need to get to top 30), Home win vs SOuth Carolina (49 needs to get to 30).

Potential opponents as Q1 opportunity: South Carolina (49) in round 3, Miss St or UT in round 4, UA or UF or UK in round 5. 

So in a perfect world, we win 3 Q1 games and two of our existing wins bump up to Q1 and suddenly we have 6 Q1 wins. I agree usually the SEC tourney doesn't move the needle much, but we may be an exception if anything remotely close to that happens. But if App St. drops to a Q2 loss and we lose our first game, we could drop a seed line as well. 

South Carolina dropped out of top 50 so yesterday’s W isn’t a Q1. Today’s vs State is so now we have 2 Q1s. STATE is also now 32 in Met so if they bump up two more the home W va them could go to a Q1. 
 

Lunardi and some others now have us as a 3 seed. Going to be close 

Old miss did not move up that win won’t jump to Q1. South Carolina didn’t move much from their first round win. So our home win will not bump up to Q1 but today is a Q1 opportunity on a neutral floor with uSC at 48 in the NET. 
 

Hoping for MSU win vs UT to boost the MSU win but not holding my breath. 

Kansas has lost their 3 seed. Someone will bump up to the spot they were holding. 

On 3/12/2024 at 5:27 PM, NCAubs said:

Good lawd.  You need help. 

??????????

16 hours ago, Viper said:

I thought Quad 1 wins were at the time of the matchup.

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Nope, they are live. 

Losses:

Neutral to Baylor (14 Net)

Road To APP St. (72) Risk of dropping to quad 2 loss if they drop out of top 75

          To Bama (8)

          To Miss St (42)

          To Florida (35)

          To UT (5)

Home To UK (19)

Wins that could improve to quad 1s: Road win at Ole Miss (90 needs to get to top 75), home win vs Miss State (42 need to get to top 30), Home win vs SOuth Carolina (49 needs to get to 30).

Potential opponents as Q1 opportunity: South Carolina (49) in round 3, Miss St or UT in round 4, UA or UF or UK in round 5. 

So in a perfect world, we win 3 Q1 games and two of our existing wins bump up to Q1 and suddenly we have 6 Q1 wins. I agree usually the SEC tourney doesn't move the needle much, but we may be an exception if anything remotely close to that happens. But if App St. drops to a Q2 loss and we lose our first game, we could drop a seed line as well. 

3 hours ago, Viper said:

We’re a 4-seed no matter what. 

The results of the 2019 SEC Tourney changed nothing. We came in as a projected 5-seed. We left with the trophy and a 5-seed.

Normally I would agree with you. However, I think one thing holding us back with human voters is we only have 1 quad 1 win right now. If we win a couple games and therefore quad 1 wins, it may matter. (Also, if Miss State wins a couple they would likely bump back up to a quad 1 win).

20 minutes ago, KillenTime said:

Most likely yes, but you have no idea where we are in the committee's eyes.  And you don't know where we were in the 2019 either.  We may have been a 6 going in and got bumped to a 5 in 2019 for all you know.  Acting like you know is hilarious.  You know nothing Viper.   

Can we really know anything? What is truth.....

Does a team hang a banner for a 5-way tie for regular season title? Has a five way tie ever happened before in the SEC or other Major conference?

I don't think the details of the Neville donation were ever released. I recall it being a donation to the athletic dept. so it wouldn't be able to be used for NIL anyway. 

Big game tonight so lets take a look at a couple of our losses against high powered offenses and see whats up. 

Vs Alabama on the road we held them 12pts below their season average. That is a huge accomplishment by our defense, but our offense put up 7 points under our average. We only shot 20% from three. Vs. Florida on the road we held them nearly 5 points below their season average, but only shot 17.5% from three. Vs Kentucky at home we held them 18 below their season average, but shot 18.2% from three. Oh and we shot 11% from three vs App St  and 25% from three and only 33% from the field vs Ms. State. The only game where we played well offensively and lost was the first game of the year where we gave up 88 to Baylor losing 82-88. 

So, can we make enough shots to beat UT? Auburn averages 80 pts a game in away games and UT averages 82 pts a game at home this season. Not as big a differential as I expected to find when I went looking. We are very similar to UT across statistical categories.  The two areas that have gotten us beat are poor shooting and rebounding. If we can shot close to our averages and win on the glass I think we can get this one. An area to watch that is interesting is that UT gives up more free throws per game than they take. They still make more than their opponents, but this one may come down to the charity stripe. 

That puts our guards as the focus point.  Has Holloway turned a corner after a mid season adjustment? Can Jones make us a few shots? Will the Donaldson that was so clutch in tough games at the end of last season re-emerge? 

Not knowing the status of J. Williams, our guards will have to get the ball to Broome, Chaney and Cardwell in favorable spots to score. Can CBM pick up the scoring slack again. A lot of interesting things to watch tonight. Not the least of which will be how do we guard UT. Do we go big with Broome and Cardwell together or can Chaney hold up? A win in this game is huge for the SEC race, but it is also huge for our tourney resume. It is a seed changer type win. A loss doesn't effect seeding much, but pretty much puts us out of the SEC race. 

Now at 194 wins, realistic chance to get to 200 this season with a few post season wins.

12 hours ago, AURex said:

Exactly what I said. Try reading comprehension.

 

I guess I am missing something. It seemed like your brother was "putting all this" negatively on CBP. Didn't seem like he was giving credit, maybe I missed something. 

Also, with your inference that CBP recruits and hopes for the best, getting lucky sometimes and not other times. Maybe I am not the only one missing something. Not sure why the need for anything extra on replies. Its ok for us to just disagree. 

CBP, and most modern college basketball offenses, have a framework of cuts, passes, movements etc that the player work within utilizing a lot of read and react decision making in the process. We have one of the highest assist to baskets make ratio's in the country. That alone should dispel any misplaced idea that there is no offensive structure and it is just a bunch of one on one iso going on. I'm not sure what "discipline plays" are to you, but there isn't a situation where our team is going to come down and make a series of predetermined passes and cuts to get a specific shot, except for special circumstances. 

13 hours ago, aucat said:

any update on his return date?

I have no info, but looking at the schedule if they sat him the full remaining regular season he would have almost an entire month to heal/rehab as the SEC tourney started. I hope he gets at least a little action before the NCAA so his first game back isn't a win or go home game.

18 minutes ago, NWALA Tiger said:

The depth of which bball came out of is significant.  I'm by no means a gus Homer. But, he got us to a Natty game. Won an SEC title, plated for another. 

BP did have a big hole to climb out of. But end result is 1 final 4.... and that was the only time we have got past the 2nd round on his tenure. If u measure success by only making the ncaa tourney that's a different conversation.  My whole point is don't back the Brinks truck up. New BB facility,  cool... Nike , cool. BP is paid highly enuf IMO.

I hear you, and I'm not sure we really disagree on the coaching salary issue. But Malzhan did things that had all been done before. Pearl has done things that have never been done at Auburn or even the entire State of Alabama. Yes a national championship is the ultimate goal, but to dismiss a final four just seems short sighted. 

On 2/19/2024 at 10:48 PM, AURex said:

My brother keeps wanting to try to put this all on CBP. Like, he just finds guys and lets them run around and do whatever they want, not running disciplined plays on the offensive end. not taking care of the ball, throwing away passes, etc.

I'm thinking instead, CBP pulls in the best guys he can lure to Auburn. They aren't the superstars that end up at UNC, Duke, UKY, Kansas, but they are the best he can lure to football school Auburn. Sometimes he gets really lucky and ends up with a final four team. Other times, he has superstars but they don't gel as a great team (Jabari/Kessler).

Thing is, when your team is made up of players who were good at a lower level, fact is they are now playing against teams at a higher level.

And truth -- teams often get better as the year goes on. Kentucky today is not Kentucky of 6 weeks ago.

Can Auburn rebound and beat Miss State at home? I dunno. If the MSU big man is healthy and playing well, well, that's a big problem for Auburn.

Personally, I'm hoping the guys can get their shiiiiiite together and play out with a good showing in the SEC tourney and get past round 2 of the NCAA. Is that realistic?

 

Put what exactly on CBP? The SEC title hunt? The bracketology of how high a seed we may earn? Fighting for a double bye in the SEC tourney an potentially another title? YES tell your brother to put all of that on CBP. 

I have never liked the coach in waiting stuff. That is not a comment on CSP. I think that CBP, in conjunction with in the investment AU made in the arena before he got here, have elevated the profile of the basketball program. As a result we should be at least looking for a proven head coach. CSP may be the best option when CBP is not longer at AU, whenever that may be, but I don't think we should lock ourselves in. 

17 hours ago, NWALA Tiger said:

BP has elevated the BB program.  No doubt.  But, it had no where to go but up. I can argue that overall Malzahn had as much end result success  as BP.   BP has only got past the 2nd round of NCAA tourney 1 time,  if memory serves.. So, yes he elevated BB more than Gus had to elevate FB, because we had already had more success in FB than BB. But when u compare results during their tenures they are very comparable.  

I'm not a Malzahn hater but come on. Malzahn had 1 conference title in 8 years. Pearl has 2 reg season titles and a tourney title in 10 years. That alone is a huge difference, not even taking into account the differences between football and basketball historically at AU. 

17 hours ago, NWALA Tiger said:

Getting to the tourney is nice. Would also be nice to make some noise once we get there.  68 teams make the tourney. 

Pearl has taken us to the NCAA tourney four times (would be five if covid didn't cancel the 2020 tourney with what might have been his best team at AU) and will take us there again this season! He has 7 NCAA tourney wins of our 19 in program history (37%). Malzahn made 7 bowl games and had 2 wins of our 24 wins in program history (8%). 

The discussion about how much any coach is worth is a worthy one, but stop acting like Pearl and Malzhan are remotely similar on success or anything else. 

16 hours ago, GwillMac6 said:

I think you know what the bigger issue is more than having some snipers. I actually think this season we do have those kind of shooters! I firmly believe Denver, CBM and Aden are snipers. The biggest difference is quality of looks. Jared Harper greatest strength was blowing past his man and the defense would collapse on him in the paint and brown and other guys would get very good clean open looks. We don’t have a PG on the roster who can do that which is why our good shooters percentages are down from 3. Especially Aden. I wish we would move him off ball on offense so he could get better looks. He has to resort to take the toughest 3 point shot attempts on the team.  He is a much better 3 point shooter than his percentages indicate. 

While we don't have an elite shooter right now, Williams and Donaldson are both over 40%, CBM is at 39%, Jones at 36% and Broome at 33%. Being able to put that lineup on the floor is a really good shooting lineup. I'd be curious is there is anther 5 players on the floor at the same time with overall better averages. 

21 hours ago, Viper said:

Can’t double him constantly. Griffen and Wrightsell are too good from the arc. It’s when Oats has Sears clear out and go one-on-one with a big…typically in the 2nd half is when Oats goes to it and sticks to it, regardless if leading or trailing. That’s when we need to bring the double team EARLY. Just not the entire game. Force Oats to alter that strategy.

We did a great job of defending their guards on the ball. They had 8 assists to 15 TOs, we also had 12 blocks. Our guys got after it on defense period. We fouled a good bit along the way which led to nearly 30 points from the stripe for them, but that is the way the game was being called. Huge statement win. 

17 hours ago, cole256 said:

As far as beating them it should be very simple. Get the ball out of Mark's hands. Make their other guards make decisions and make shots. 

I would double Mark all night

Agree with the spirit of this. Deny him the ball as much as possible, double him hard on ball screens, not just switching on a big. Force it out of his hands away from the bucket. He had a season high in assists against us last time, hurt us more there than shooting the three by far. He was taking advantage of the big switching on him, scoring on drives and creating for others. That is the primary adjustment we need to make. Last game at their place we were a stop and a bucket away from getting it on the road.

Obviously, the way that our guards defend Sears will be a major factor, but with Broome being in the top five player of the year rankings on KenPom, and Bama‘s lack of size, for us to win this game we’re gonna need a dominate in the paint.

On 1/20/2024 at 12:35 PM, BHDAU1 said:

One of the other posters replied to my post with the paragraph below:

"First, Jaylin Williams has not transformed into a superstar who can carry us to a final four. Jaylin is a nice player who is playing well and has a good tool box. He gives us what we need at the four, but he will not be the deciding factor about how far we go in the post season or if we challenge for the SEC title. This season is is averaging about 1 more point per game than last season, and about 2 more points than his sophomore season. His rebounds, assists, and blocks are less than 1 per game different as well. Since the App. St. game he has had 4 20+ point bursts, but he has also failed to reach double digits twice. On top of all that, his shot attempts are actually down this season from last season and his sophomore season (I'm excluding his stats from 2022 as he was in a role coming off the bench behind Jabari)."

To clarify a little, I wasn't saying he is a superstar or anything like that, but to say that he has not transformed his role since Auburn's last loss is not giving credit where credit is due.  I think he WAS the missing piece if we are talking about this team's ceiling and whether they can reach it, and it's not a missing piece anymore because he has stepped-up into the role that I think Pearl has been trying to put him in.  I calculated some comparisons after the Texas A&M game to see what the biggest changes have been for him and it's pretty telling really.  From Baylor to App State, Williams averaged 7 points a game.  From the Indiana game thru T A&M he has averaged 16 points a game.  That is more than double, a significant change in anyone's estimation.  Using those same start and endpoints, his assists went from 1 to 2.6 per game, his turnovers per game stayed at 1, his 3 point shooting percentage went from 17% ALL the way up to 46%, and his overall shooting percentage went from 49% up to 65%.  Those are really spectacular improvements, we aren't talking about a couple good games, we are talking about the averages from his first 7 games to the averages of the last 8 ( I did these calculations prior to the last two games). I don't think the last couple games, in which he averaged 15 pts and has missed a total of 0 field goals out of 9 shots, and 2 free throws out of 10 does anything but further support how big of a change it has been for him.  As everyone is likely aware, the last game he was perfect from the field and from the FT line which is extremely hard to do.  I think the bottom line is that he is being the guy that the team needs him to be to have the most success possible, and it's been a long time coming! 

That was me. You are taking a stretch of games that would be a slump for him when compared to his career numbers and then comparing with a stretch where he has played well. Jaylin is going to Jaylin, that was my point. He isn't a different guy. 

2 hours ago, mustache eagle said:

If he keeps improving at this rate, imagine where he’ll be come March!

I'll be the first to lament on some of Moore's shortcomings. However, his role with the starters is a good fit and it allows CBM to come off the bench firing shots. It is working and I hope we leave it as is until it proves to be an issue.