TeamZero77

On 5/7/2024 at 6:46 PM, WDE_OxPx_2010 said:

Vegas doesn't exist as a desert oasis simply because they can guess well. Vegas KNOWS.

Link

"Does Vegas adjust the lines based on the known betting habits of certain fan bases? They almost certainly do, but I have never been able to detect any clear bias in the data. Also, it would certainly be very easy to do that for just a handful of games, and that data would just get swamped by all the other data. So, I just ignore this possibility. If I can’t measure it systematically, I don’t care about it.

 

Practically, if a team is favored by 10 points, this translates to a ~75 percent chance of victory for that team. Does this mean: If those teams were to play 100 times, one team would (roughly) win 25 times and the other would win 75 times? OR, does it simply mean that in any given game with a 10-point spread, the favorite will win 75 percent of the time by an average margin of 10 points. I think that the second statement is clearly the correct one."

I agree with you. Vegas knows what they're doing. I remember this same time last year so many people were on this board complaining about Vegas disrespecting us because they had our win total at 6.5

Well, we finished 6-7. Vegas has been pretty spot on with our win totals the last few years. To be honest, we don't deserve much respect because we've been proving Vegas correct the past 4 years. We need to earn everybody's respect and the only way to accomplish that is by winning on the field. 

I may be setting myself up for a big disappointment but I truly believe we finish the regular season 9-3. There's no way to predict how our bowl game will go because we won't know our opponent until the regular season ends. I predicted 6-6 last year. I feel better this year because our coaching staff got quiet a bit better and we improved the roster. The biggest positive that I see is that our playcalling should be ALOT better this year. 

Like I said earlier, I'm probably setting myself up for disappointment but I'm starting to really feel better about our chances this year than I was previously. 

I always look at the offer list and this guy has offers from us, Bama, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss, MSU, etc. Physically, he looks like he is ready to start for us today!!! Always nice to go into another state and steal a guy that was predicted to stay in-state. I like this pickup!!!

WDE, Tyler!!!!

13 hours ago, ertrader said:

2005 for last win at GA I think. Like 4 coaches ago 

Yep, 8 losses in a row in Athens and 6 in a row in Tuscaloosa. Also lost 11 of our last 12 in Baton Rouge. 

45 minutes ago, nthemix said:

Haven’t watched much of the draft today … have we even had a player picked so far ?

This was the first time in 21 years that Auburn didn't have a player selected in the first 4 rounds of the NFL Draft. 😥 

Nehemiah Pritchett is the only player we've had selected so far. He went in the 5th round today. We've got 5 total players that are projected to be drafted and they're all on the defensive side of the ball.

Somebody mentioned this recently but our last 3 head coaches have all been "offensive guru's" but we always struggle on the offensive side of the ball and our players that get drafted seem to mostly be defensive and special teams players. 

Weird huh?

2 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I’m glad that someone is able to read my posts and leave emotion at the door lol. Dudes hear Hokanson or whoever allude to Aden freezing out Pearl and are ready to wish the kid the worst with their perception that he’s spitting on Pearl.  It’s just incredible really

Aden did the right thing for Aden. The coaching staff essentially pushed one of him or Tre out and the program that just developed arguably the best point guard in CBB gave him an offer. If you read this and completely took away who that program was, why would you NOT commit there?

I can tell you what alot of the hate is right now by Auburn fans towards Aden; he has the ability to be a really good player and fans are worried Nate Oats will get the most out of Aden and it will make Bruce look like he isn't as good of a developer or HC as Nate Oats. Deep down, that's a BIG part of all this hate even though nobody will admit it due to pride.

95% of this is a Nate Oats and Bama vs Bruce Pearl and Auburn thing and most are worried we won't come out on a the winning side of this deal longterm. 

Just read through all of the game threads other than the Georgia game and most everybody wanted Aden gone. Well, he's gone and now look at those same people complaining.

1 minute ago, JerryAU said:

Fans are fickle.  

UK fans packed out Rupp and left hundreds standing outside who couldn't get in to attend Pope's introduction speech as UK HC.  They had more rabid fans attend Pope's inauguration than we had on a beautiful spring A-Day game in JHS. 

Yeah, I agree about fans being fickle. I'm guilty as well. I remember being so pissed off about us hiring Gene Chizik as HC but after he started putting together a really good staff, I was 100% onboard. (Hell, I would've been onboard regardless)

It was pretty funny yesterday when ESPN Sportscenter had Mark Pope on and they were asking him about Kentucky and replacing Calipari, etc. The usual stuff they always ask. Pope called Kentucky the "Cougars" on 2 different occasions during the 2 minute interview. That's an easy slip up since he's been head coach of the BYU Cougars for the past 5 years but I'm sure some of the UK fans are keeping receipts. 

Most of the Kentucky fanbase wanted Calipari fired the past couple years. I've seen some of them say "Calipari should do what's right and just step down as our HC." 

So now he has stepped down at Kentucky and taken the Arkansas job, while Kentucky has gone out and hired Mark Pope to replace him. And guess what........Big Blue Nation seems to be losing their minds over Mark Pope being their new HC and now the fans are pissed off at Calipari for leaving!!!😂 They're blaming Calipari for not giving the Kentucky AD and BOT a notice that he was leaving. They think it blindsided the Kentucky AD and BOT and that they weren't in a position to find a top tier coach to replace Calipari.

I think alot of Big Blue Nation's anger (and their pride won't let them admit it) is that they were publically turned down by Hurley, Oats, Wright, Drew and Donovan. The PTB at Kentucky seem to have settled on Mark Pope because they knew he is an alum and former player on the 1996 Kentucky team that won a Natty and he wouldn't turn them down. Pope's average win/loss record over 5 years at BYU is 22-10 and he's made the NCAA Tourney twice but has never made it past the 1st round. 

Knowing how arrogant Calipari is, you know he is loving this Mark Pope hire because it's a "Be careful what you wish for" moment directed straight at Big Blue Nation.

If Billy Donovan does come back to Kentucky to be head coach, he will be hell to deal with in my opinion. The guy won back to back Natty's at Florida in 2006 and 2007 and also took them to another National Championship game appearance in 2000. Then he took OKC Thunder to the NBA Finals. 

The question will be does he want to recruit again and deal with NIL and the new transfer portal or does he want to stay with the Chicago Bulls.

Just listening right now on Finebaum's show and he led off with Pete Thamel from ESPN mentioning who Kentucky is rumored to be interested in. Thamel said the top name is Billy Donovan because he won 2 Natty's at Florida and was an assistant under Pitino at Kentucky so he already knows the program and area. Donovan is coaching the Chicago Bulls and Thamel said if this search runs long, you'll know it's Donovan and they're just waiting on his NBA season to end. 

He said if it's not Donovan, it will likely be Scott Drew that coaches Baylor. His buyout is small and he has won a Natty recently.

He said the names being thrown out by fans and podcasters like Nate Oats, Bruce Pearl, Jay Wright, Mick Cronin and Dan Hurley simply aren't true. The buyouts are really large for some of those coaches and Jay Wright has repeatedly said he won't coach college basketball again and if he wanted to, he would've never left Villanova. Thamel said the buyouts seem small compared to college football but in college basketball, no matter the school, AD's and boosters simply refuse to pay big buyouts like Nate Oats currently has. 

So Billy Donovan or Scott Drew according to ESPN.

26 minutes ago, e808 said:

Bamas threes are falling this might get interesting. Bama is battle tested . Isn’t this the first time UConn has trailed all tournament 

I think UConn had only trailed for 28 seconds before tonight. Hurley's got to settle them down at halftime. Grant Hill was right a bit ago when he said Bama wants a track meet and will run UConn to death and UConn seems to be playing right into that trap.

If Bama wins tonight, they'll run Eady to death in the title game. He's 300 pounds and he can play 40 minutes if he needs to but he can barely get up and down the floor at times. Against NC State tonight, the ref's didn't call a foul for nearly 7 minutes and Eady was literally walking up the court on fast breaks because he was so gassed. 

If Bama pulls this game off, I think they're destined to win it all. 

I saw a stat earlier that said 85% of Alabama's points this year came from shots at the rim or 3 point shots. Free throws weren't included in that stat.

Oats is analytics 100% just like Lane Kiffin is in football.

21 hours ago, e808 said:

UConn had the game blown wide open but allowed Iowa back into the game which allowed the script to be played out.  I expect the Women’s championship numbers to surpass the LSU and Iowa game

The Iowa vs UConn women's game drew the most viewers ever for a basketball game on ESPN, men or women. The most viewed basketball game on ESPN was 2018 Boston vs Cleveland ECF until last nights game beat that. The article I read said last nights game got nearly 15 million viewers. 

I've never watched much women's basketball unless Auburn has been good but I've watched every women's Elite 8 and Final 4 game this year and the games are exciting down to the final buzzer (in most of the games). 

I just don't see Zach Edey's game transferring to the NBA where he will be a starter for anyone. He doesn't shoot 3's and he is slow. His style was needed years ago but not so much now in the current NBA. 

1 minute ago, DAG said:

if that is the case, I would consider that a very successful season. Grayson has created a great role, first in Milwaukee and now in Phoenix. You need those kind of pieces on championship teams.

I agree. Similar to Bobby Portis or how Robert Horry was. Not an All Star but a solid player that can start or be a 6th man and play 10 years in the league, maybe longer.

1 minute ago, DAG said:

He will find a role. Not sure he will be more than that though...

I think Knecht in the pro's will be similar to Grayson Allen.

Purdue with Edey and UConn with Clingan are proving that if you have a 7 foot center that can play, you'll go very deep in the tourney. That's how we made that deep run in the tournament with Walker Kessler.........oh wait 😏

Wouldn't that be wild if the national title game ends up being Alabama vs Tennessee? Two big rivals that both lost their opening game of the SEC Tourney. 

16 hours ago, fishepa said:

You all deserve it. Easiest path to the final four ever. 

Actually a stat was posted somewhere on here saying this years Duke team has had the easiest run ever. Their four games so far have been against #1 seed, #11 seed, #12 seed and #13 seed. And in the win over #1 seed Houston, their star PG Jamal Shead went out in the first half with a bad ankle injury and didn't return which made it alot easier on Duke. 

Bama's beaten a #1, #6, #12 and #13. Not a gauntlet at all but not as easy as Duke has faced. If Bama beats UConn (I doubt they will), they'll deserve all the praise as bad as it would suck.

15 hours ago, E'Town4Bama said:

Saban is from West Virginia..................

Yeah he did really well when LSU hired him. They took a chance on him and he had never coached in the southeast that I know of. LSU also hired Les Miles and he was a Michigan guy that had been at Oklahoma State as a HC. So LSU has taken chances on coaches without southeastern experience and its paid off with Saban, Miles and now Brian Kelly. When Florida hired Urban Meyer he had been an asst. coach in Ohio, Illinois, Indiana and Colorado and was the HC for 2 years at Bowling Green and then his time at Utah. He came to Florida and won a Natty in year 2 and another in year 4. So not ever coaching in the southeast didn't hurt him either.

I think if a coach is really good, he can go anywhere and win if the college he coaches at has a strong athletics department. Florida, LSU and Alabama do well in most all of their sports programs. 

Heck, Bruce Pearl attended Boston College, coached at Iowa as an asst., Southern Indiana and Milwaukee as a HC. Tennessee hired him and he had no experience in the south but he took off just fine at Tennessee and recruiting was doing fine. 

I just feel like if a coach is good at what he does, it travels. The program has to be behind that coach as well. 

I just looked up Nate Oats coaching career and he has NEVER been in the south until he took this Alabama job. Born in Wisconsin, coached high school ball in Wisconsin and then coached a very small college in Wisconsin and then went to coach Buffalo when Bobby Hurley left. Then Alabama hired him. That's his whole career!!

Strange how he's never been in the south but then comes here and recruits well and has won alot of games. Now they've hired Kalen DeBoer in football and he's never been in the south either. If he does well at Bama then maybe it isn't so much where the person is from but more about how well the athletics department is ran. After Harsin bombed, all I've heard is that a coach that's never been in the south will never win. Could it possibly be that our athletics department isn't ran as well as Alabama's is? I mean, Brian Kelly has done fine at LSU and he's never been in the south that I know of. 

This is a 3 point shootout for Clemson vs Bama

UConn is 10-0 the last 2 years in the NCAA Tournament and all 10 wins have been by 13 points or more. No other team in history has accomplished that. 

If Alabama holds on to beat Clemson, they'll face UConn in the Final Four. Beating UConn would be something like Bama and Nate Oats would pull off even though I don't think they'll do it. 

I've seen some people saying Bama doesn't belong here because they lost 10 regular season games. Our Final Four team in 2019 lost 9 regular season games and finished tied for 4th in the SEC regular season. It's all about getting hot at the right time and getting the right matchups. 

Bammer is hanging around with UNC. Hubert Davis has to tell his guys to slow this pace down. They're playing right into what Nate Oates wants....a very fast pace!

3 hours ago, cole256 said:

I stopped doing a bunch of posting because I didn't want to have pointless arguments every game.

Here we are now, this is what I've been waiting for and I'm sure you all have seen me say this game doesn't really matter, it's all about tuning up for the tourney.

 

I'll keep it short the bad stuff with us, still we are inconsistent as far as guard play. I wouldn't say we have any dynamic guards. And I don't think we have good depth as far as trustworthy ball handlers. We can't let any team get too far up on us, we HAVE to control tempo and we do that by our defense. I also worry about just having a guy with the role as far as a big shot taker and maker.

 

The good, we are built for this style tourney. We are deep deep deep. We can send guys at people defensively in waves and keep our guys fresh. We are long, we have some experience. We don't rely on free throws, we have a great post presence, we can rebound. All of this is great.

We will go deep if enough of our strengths click for us at the same time. Our best thing we have is versatility on both sides of the ball. We can trap, switch, man up, protect the paint and basically keep the same personnel in. 

I still pretty much feel everything I said at the beginning of the year. With the additions if CBM and Chaney it put us in an entire stratosphere of things we can do defensively. I feel like if we do anything special it's going to be spearheaded by our defense. 

I have more thoughts but trying to keep this fairly short. I'm really really hoping we make a run in this and everything clicks at the right time! 

Excellent post!!

27 minutes ago, TigerOne said:

So did their team, only worse performance so far is Virginia 

You ain't kidding about Virginia!! I know Tony Bennett's teams have always been known as boring because they play so slow on the offensive side but his guys took it to a whole different level against Colorado State!! They went 12 minutes and 35 seconds of game time without a single point scored. In real time it was 52 minutes. 😂 They had 14 points at halftime!! What a mess. Remember in 2018 they were the first #1 seed in history to lose to a #16 seed? 

This is karma for that no-call on the double dribble in the 2019 Final Four.