DEMS' DEADLY DIVIDE

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DEMS' DEADLY DIVIDE

BY DICK MORRIS

September 2, 2004 -- LAST night, Dick Che ney said that "Amer ica sees two John Kerry's" and that Kerry's "liveliest disagreement" is with himself. But that's not Kerry's biggest problem. His real conundrum is that his voters disagree with one another on almost every major foreign-policy and terrorism issue. So, no matter what Kerry says, he will alienate a goodly portion of his voters.

This handicap is likely to loom larger and larger as the election moves into its debating phase. But, for now, the Republicans are doing a good job of throwing curveballs that force Kerry to choose between his voting blocks — antagonizing some and invigorating others, bleeding support the whole way.

In an incredibly striking contrast, Bush voters are united on virtually all the questions that divide the Kerry vote. So Bush can advance his agenda with impunity while taking aim at Kerry voters who are antagonized by their candidate whenever he has to choose a position.

From the excellent polling and brilliant analysis of Scott Rasmussen, who takes daily tracking polls, comes evidence of Democratic division and Republican unity.

One example: Rasmussen asked if Iraq was a part of the War on Terror or a distraction from it. Republicans overwhelmingly said it was integral — by 79-14. But Democrats were divided. Half said it is a distraction — but 36 percent felt it was a key part of the war effort.

So what is Kerry to say? Either way, he loses votes. And if he waffles, he strengthens his reputation for flip-flopping.

Should we give a priority to finishing the mission in Iraq or to bringing the troops home? Republicans say "stay the course," 71-23. Democrats divide: 54 percent say "come home"; 37 percent want us to finish the mission.

Who is winning the War on Terror? Republicans say we are, 77-10. Democrats divide almost equally, with 33 percent saying America is winning and 42 percent saying the terrorists are gaining the upper hand.

So how is Kerry to characterize the war? Say it's a success — and alienate 42 percent of his vote — or call it a failure — and drive away 33 percent?

Republicans are sure, by 67-12, that if we'd left Saddam in power, life in America would be more dangerous. Democrats again divide, with 20 percent saying life is safer because he is out, and 34 percent saying it's not.

Should the United States follow the lead of its allies more than we do now? Republicans say "No," 72-5; 44 percent of the Democrats say "Yes," and 19 percent say "No."

So, on each of these issues, whenever Kerry opens his mouth, he loses.

The Republicans are skillfully exploiting this weakness in their opponent. At the outset of the campaign, they are making much of Kerry's inconsistent positions on issues and undermining his credibility by attacking his war record.

At the convention, the GOP is hammering home these issues to set them up for use down the road. Then, in the debates, Bush will close in for the kill, making Kerry fish or cut bait on these pivotal questions, always being prepared to say, "There you go again" if he waffles.

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/19107.htm